Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/28/russia-is-poised-to-take-advantage-of-political-splits-in-ukraine

"Russia is poised to take advantage of political splits in Ukraine"

[CumbrianLefty]

It’s been clear for a while that Western media doesn’t realize that most of Putin’s critics inside Russia aren’t secular, liberal, humanist upset with his authoritarian policies when in reality it’s people further to his right and even more militaristic and imperialist who think he doesn’t go hard enough (ie Wagner)

Completely true, but they may also turn out to be more realistic and pragmatic than Putin in practice despite this - its the old "Nixon to China" thing again.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

From India media News9live

https://www.news9live.com/world/exclusive-us-asks-ukraine-to-return-abraham-tank-in-return-of-four-german-leopard-tanks-2361688

"Exclusive: To save the reputation of mighty Abraham tank, USA has asked Ukraine to return it"

Source: "it is said".

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1729778116418031889
This guy is one of the best on the ground sources (and can even be a pessimist about Ukraine) so him saying the Russian Avdiivka campaign is stuck right now is a positive development 😗

[bilaps]

Where does he say they're stuck?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I wanted to write a rant about Politico’s utterly deranged The Most Powerful Players in Europe, but I think this sums it up. Well, this and “Zelensky brought war to Europe” — yes, really.

https://twitter.com/yevyevhenii/status/1729569170331763137

It’s been clear for a while that Western media doesn’t realize that most of Putin’s critics inside Russia aren’t secular, liberal, humanist upset with his authoritarian policies when in reality it’s people further to his right and even more militaristic and imperialist who think he doesn’t go hard enough (ie Wagner)

It’s a mix. Navalny is an opportunist who’s been all over the political spectrum, although he probably believes in something, or else he wouldn’t have stayed in the country. His line has usually been very anti-war, Crimea excepted.

Prigozhin sang bizarrely anti-war notes in his latter days (he was a very weird #populist - and, at heart, a con artist). Politicians are even more untrustworthy in kleptocracies than they are in democracies - I wouldn’t trust them to be go one way or the other post-Putin.

[jaichind]

From German public media ARD's Tagesschau

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ukraine-soldaten-front-kaempfe-100.html

"We're at the end, we're tired"

But Russia is very strong and very smart. "And it is acting strategically. Russia doesn't think about tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, but rather about the next few years," emphasizes the soldier with the brightly colored hair.

A statement that most Western military and security experts would probably agree with. The clock is currently ticking for Russia, which has been preparing for a long war for months and is being supplied with weapons and ammunition by allies such as North Korea and Iran. If you want to keep up, you have to rethink things, many experts say. Not enough has happened so far.

Signs of the German government wanting to get out of this mess?

[jaichind]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/11/30/the-biggest-problem-with-ukraines-m-1-tanks-they-dont-like-staying-dirty/?sh=5764976951f6

"The Biggest Problem With Ukraine’s M-1 Tanks: They Don’t Like Staying Dirty"

If an Abrams’ four-person crew neglects to clean its tank’s filters every 12 hours or so, it might so badly damage the engine that the battalion has no choice but to remove the engine, and potentially the transmission, and ship it away for a lengthy overhaul.

Sounds a lot like the experience of German tanks in Ukraine.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1730244174488682826?s=12
Hungary chicken out again lol

(Edit: oh apparently this was passed through a simple majority vote and they’re just ignoring Hungary now lol)

[Logical]

The fat Magyar has always been all talk and no action.

[Storr]

"New report from Russia's Central Bank acknowledges that West's price ceiling on Russian crude & petroleum products added transition costs & hit demand, resulting in revenues of Russia's largest oil/gas biz falling 41% in Jan-Sept vs same period last year."

https://x.com/KevinRothrock/status/1730346377115238488?s=20

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-poll-shows-40-back-181820097.html

"Ukraine Poll Shows 40% Back NATO Bid Without Occupied Regions"

A total of 40% of those asked said they fully or rather supported the idea of Ukraine joining the bloc with only those territories currently under government control, according to the telephone survey of 1,000 people conducted by the Rating pollster on Nov. 22-23. Support for NATO accession slipped to 77% from 83% in July and is now at the same level as it was in March 2022, shortly after Russia started its invasion.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1730377503183712580
Lol

[bilaps]

Finally, Ukrainians admit they don't control Stepove.

https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1730515178016342191

[CumbrianLefty]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-poll-shows-40-back-181820097.html

"Ukraine Poll Shows 40% Back NATO Bid Without Occupied Regions"

But it will not be eligible for NATO membership without them, so this question is a bit pointless tbh.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-poll-shows-40-back-181820097.html

"Ukraine Poll Shows 40% Back NATO Bid Without Occupied Regions"

But it will not be eligible for NATO membership without them, so this question is a bit pointless tbh.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/11/ex-nato-chief-proposes-ukraine-joins-without-russian-occupied-territories

"Ex-Nato chief proposes Ukraine joins without Russian-occupied territories"

I think the idea is to cede all territories that Russia controls to Russia and what remains of Ukraine to join NATO.  In Ukraine, there seems to be 40% support for that option which Putin will turn down so clearly it is pointless.

[Woody]

Battle of Marinka is all but over today. The Russian tricolor has been hoisted in the city's western edge.

Kudos to both Ukrainians and Russians for fighting valiantly there.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-poll-shows-40-back-181820097.html

"Ukraine Poll Shows 40% Back NATO Bid Without Occupied Regions"

But it will not be eligible for NATO membership without them, so this question is a bit pointless tbh.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/11/ex-nato-chief-proposes-ukraine-joins-without-russian-occupied-territories

"Ex-Nato chief proposes Ukraine joins without Russian-occupied territories"

I think the idea is to cede all territories that Russia controls to Russia and what remains of Ukraine to join NATO.

I know - but that is not currently allowed under NATO's constitution, is surely the point?

[bilaps]

Looks like Russians now control almost all of what was sometimes was Marinka town and now is a bunch of ruins and basements. I don't think this will change something dramatically but shows one big thing.

Domino effect of Ukrainians holding Bakhmut for political purposes is now in full swing. Along with launching Zaporozhye offensive at any cost. Ukrainian general staff is now like a plumber trying to fix water leak at 10 times at once. Big one is in Avdeevka where reinforcements were brought in but it leaks in other directions too like Bakhmut, Kupyansk, Marinka.. What would actually be smart for Ukrainians to do is to withdraw from Avdeevka, they don't really need it desperately and to entrench themselves like Russians did in Zaporozhye. And in the bigger picture it would be wise for Ukraine to accept the reality on the ground and come to some sort of agreement which would freeze the lines where they are right now. Maybe for a little breathing space around Donetsk, Russians would trade some parts of Zaporozhye and Kherson. In any way this thing is not going to end by Ukrainian flag flying over Donetsk, Luhansk or Sevastopol for sure.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-poll-shows-40-back-181820097.html

"Ukraine Poll Shows 40% Back NATO Bid Without Occupied Regions"

But it will not be eligible for NATO membership without them, so this question is a bit pointless tbh.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/11/ex-nato-chief-proposes-ukraine-joins-without-russian-occupied-territories

"Ex-Nato chief proposes Ukraine joins without Russian-occupied territories"

I think the idea is to cede all territories that Russia controls to Russia and what remains of Ukraine to join NATO.

I know - but that is not currently allowed under NATO's constitution, is surely the point?

Putin and Russia won’t even accept it, they’ve been open recently about how any peace treaty will need them to have them Kherson and Odessa and Ukraine will rightly never cede land to Russia so this freezing along lines idea is pointless

[jaichind]

I know - but that is not currently allowed under NATO's constitution, is surely the point?

But if Ukraine, as part of such a peace with Russia, legally cedes territories controlled by Russia to Russia then there is no issue of joining NATO with the new and reduced borders.

[Woody]

I know - but that is not currently allowed under NATO's constitution, is surely the point?

But if Ukraine, as part of such a peace with Russia, legally cedes territories controlled by Russia to Russia then there is no issue of joining NATO with the new and reduced borders.

Russia won't go for that, they want to finish the job, whatever it takes they want all of Ukraine. That's why they're geared for the attrition war.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/28/putin-russia-sanctions-economy-oil/

"In Russia, the shift in public opinion is unmistakable"

Even so, the shift in public opinion is unmistakable. Twenty months ago, Russian elites were convinced that the long-unassailable Putin had finally overplayed his hand and that he would likely have to pay a harsh price for his miscalculation.

Now, most of them seem to have changed their minds. The Russian president, as they see it, has shown that he's here to stay.

[Storr]

"An extraordinary story by @VALERIEinNYT & @HeitmannNanna
 from a soldier's funeral in a Russian village.

"Ms. Kabaeva said the family had felt it necessary to tell their mother that her son had died fighting Americans.""

https://twitter.com/antontroian/status/1730553290776019076?s=20

Relatedly. It's clear the Russian leadership doesn't care about how many casualties they suffer in order to bring/keep Ukraine in their "sphere of influence". A more debatable question is whether the Russian people will reach a breaking point when it comes to the number casualties suffered in Ukraine:

"Russia's Worst Month: November Troop Losses Comparable to WW1

Imperial Russia in WW1 suffered about 1.8 million military dead or an average 1,100 men a day.

The Russian Federation last month lost 900 soldiers every 24 hours and some days were worse."

https://twitter.com/ChrisDYork/status/1730234304590983645?s=20

[bilaps]

Yeah, suuuure let's believe "Kyiv" post on how many soldiers Russia lost during the month. What do they say, how many Ukrainians died?