Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Red Velvet]

Seizing Russian assets and giving them to Ukraine is an idea I have always opposed, on grounds relating to my valuing of a right to property. Moreover, there's also the fact that a ton of American-owned assets overseas are made more at risk if we make the seizure of Russian assets part of how the game is played. A country like America should not be undercutting the right to property by even appearing to limit it to people who we like. That's bound to take us down a road that would undercut the financial prosperity of the country (and entities based within its orders or tied to it) as a whole.

Giving the rest of the world a signal that this sort of thing is okay to do when we say so, is a price too high to pay for larger amounts of Ukraine aid. Freezing the assets is one thing, but seizing them outright is a bridge too far even in these sorts of circumstances.

Let's say that you destroyed your neighbor's house.

The court is going to seize the money in your bank account (and other posessions) to pay for the damages.

Who gets to decide the US is the World’s Court to make these decisions unilaterally though?

It’s like a Serial Killer judging a Rapist.

Anyway, it’s great action to stimulate the dropping the Dollar momentum.

[NOVA Green]

https://thenationonlineng.net/olena-zelenska-spends-1100000-on-cartier-jewelry-gets-sales-employee-fired/

"Olena Zelenska spends $1,100,000 on Cartier jewelry, gets sales employee fired"

Nigerian media reports that Zelensky's wife spent $1.1 million in a NYC jewelry store based on information from an ex-employee

So this happened in New York City, but the only one reporting on it is a Nigerian newspaper?

Definitely legit Russia disinformation.


jaichind, just how stupid do you think we are?

Great example of why I have him on ignore. Definitely not missing anything.

done, done, and done.

Thread much quieter now without any real reduction in content.

[2952-0-0]

The Ruble has hit 100 to the USD again. As promised:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seizing Russian assets and giving them to Ukraine is an idea I have always opposed, on grounds relating to my valuing of a right to property. Moreover, there's also the fact that a ton of American-owned assets overseas are made more at risk if we make the seizure of Russian assets part of how the game is played. A country like America should not be undercutting the right to property by even appearing to limit it to people who we like. That's bound to take us down a road that would undercut the financial prosperity of the country (and entities based within its orders or tied to it) as a whole.

Giving the rest of the world a signal that this sort of thing is okay to do when we say so, is a price too high to pay for larger amounts of Ukraine aid. Freezing the assets is one thing, but seizing them outright is a bridge too far even in these sorts of circumstances.

Let's say that you destroyed your neighbor's house.

The court is going to seize the money in your bank account (and other posessions) to pay for the damages.

Who gets to decide the US is the World’s Court to make these decisions unilaterally though?

It’s like a Serial Killer judging a Rapist.

Anyway, it’s great action to stimulate the dropping the Dollar momentum.

It is not in favor of American interests for the International court system to have too much power.

[CumbrianLefty]

That's surely true of all significant countries though, for obvious reasons.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1710280191988138062
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1710288372994814073
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1710288159504744927

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1710263281783378372
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1710260621059481872
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1710194604513849622
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1710191221958746324
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1710032276027826407

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1710190384842735946?s=12
I’m shocked jaichind spread misinformation 😱

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1710190384842735946?s=12
I’m shocked jaichind spread misinformation 😱

Says the guy who quotes Visegrad24.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1710190384842735946?s=12
I’m shocked jaichind spread misinformation 😱

Says the guy who quotes Visegrad24.

If you want to die on the hill of “Nigerian newspaper report that Zelensky wife bought over a million dollars in jewelry from a NYC store and the proof is a receipt who’s date doesn’t line up with when they were in NYC is totally credible” be my guest

[bilaps]

The war now enters a new phase after pretty much failed Ukrainian counter-offensive. Any significant advances at this point from Ukrainian side would be a big surprise given what we've seen in last couple of weeks. As for the other side, it remains to be seen is Russian army strenghten enough for any sort of prolonged offensive operation on any sector of the front. There are rumors today that there were increasing activation on some parts of the front by Russians especially Kupyansk and Soledar, but we'll see if it's only minor standard operations taking place or a start of a more serious push.

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1710190384842735946?s=12
I’m shocked jaichind spread misinformation 😱

Says the guy who quotes Visegrad24.

If you want to die on the hill of “Nigerian newspaper report that Zelensky wife bought over a million dollars in jewelry from a NYC store and the proof is a receipt who’s date doesn’t line up with when they were in NYC is totally credible” be my guest

Nope. But I will take my chances on a "višegrad 24 is not a credible source, so any person who implies something to other users while using this kind of source is not genuine" mound.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-heads-into-winter-with-hobbled-energy-system-2023-10-06/

"Ukraine heads into winter with a hobbled energy system"

But there has been neither the money nor the time to complete preparations for the winter, meaning more long nights without light, heat and water for millions of Ukrainians and more suffering too for businesses and the wider economy.

[DavidB.]

It looks like we're in a new phase indeed, mostly because of the Polish U-turn and increasing GOP opposition to supporting Ukraine, but also because of general fatigue in the West. So far, Ukraine has not succeeded in making any significant advances this year, and while there are all sorts of outside reasons for that (perhaps most importantly the slow materiel deliveries from the West, which does not live up to its promises) it will cost them dearly. The West has "geopolitical ADHD" and its attention span for Ukraine is running out. In Afghanistan, the Taliban said "the Americans have watches, but we've got the time"; the same goes for Russia. I find this to be very unfortunate because I support Ukraine in taking back control over its entire territory, but it feels like the mood is shifting quite rapidly. I expect the West to force Ukraine to the negotiating table in 2024.

[pppolitics]

It looks like we're in a new phase indeed, mostly because of the Polish U-turn and increasing GOP opposition to supporting Ukraine, but also because of general fatigue in the West. So far, Ukraine has not succeeded in making any significant advances this year, and while there are all sorts of outside reasons for that (perhaps most importantly the slow materiel deliveries from the West, which does not live up to its promises) it will cost them dearly. The West has "geopolitical ADHD" and its attention span for Ukraine is running out. In Afghanistan, the Taliban said "the Americans have watches, but we've got the time"; the same goes for Russia. I find this to be very unfortunate because I support Ukraine in taking back control over its entire territory, but it feels like the mood is shifting quite rapidly. I expect the West to force Ukraine to the negotiating table in 2024.

Clearly, you haven't been paying close enough attention.

Ukraine's objective is to reach Melitopol.

That may seem far away but in reality, there are no defenses after Tokmak and Ukraine Armed Forces has already breached 2 of the 3 layers of defenses.

[jaichind]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-chrystia-freeland-accuses-putin-of-weaponizing-mps-ovations-for/

"Chrystia Freeland accuses Putin of weaponizing MPs’ ovations for Ukrainian SS veteran"

Somehow Canada does not want to just let go after the Nazi fiasco and just move on.

[bilaps]

It looks like we're in a new phase indeed, mostly because of the Polish U-turn and increasing GOP opposition to supporting Ukraine, but also because of general fatigue in the West. So far, Ukraine has not succeeded in making any significant advances this year, and while there are all sorts of outside reasons for that (perhaps most importantly the slow materiel deliveries from the West, which does not live up to its promises) it will cost them dearly. The West has "geopolitical ADHD" and its attention span for Ukraine is running out. In Afghanistan, the Taliban said "the Americans have watches, but we've got the time"; the same goes for Russia. I find this to be very unfortunate because I support Ukraine in taking back control over its entire territory, but it feels like the mood is shifting quite rapidly. I expect the West to force Ukraine to the negotiating table in 2024.

Clearly, you haven't been paying close enough attention.

Ukraine's objective is to reach Melitopol.

That may seem far away but in reality, there are no defenses after Tokmak and Ukraine Armed Forces has already breached 2 of the 3 layers of defenses.

In alternate reality for sure. Yeah, some layers of defense are breached, it would be miracle if all this counter-offensive talk and western equipment with training didn't produce some gains but if you really think that there's gonna be some miracle where when you reach one point and after that point there's no defense left...... With the slow pace of advancing, you can always in time prepare some additional layers of defense.. It's clear that this won't be Kharkov offensive, where after initial breach everything fell apart.

I mean, if you're closely following.

[2952-0-0]

The Z Telegram channel Rybar has admitted that the Black Sea Fleet couldn't defend itself in Sevastopol, and had to withdraw its remaining fleet.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-milblogger-difficult-accept-russia-moved-its-black-sea-fleet-2023-10

As a result, Ukraine is able to resume exports of grain through its ports. World grain prices have now tumbled down to pre-war and pre-pandemic levels.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat

There's still no sign of Viktor Sokolov, the commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

[PSOL]

Most in the west don’t work in the weapon industry or are beltway elites, and the huge amount of money given to Ukraine based on their own comprehension is too much as they are left with getting less than before the war. Blaming it on “geopolitical ADHD”, “populism”, or “Russian troll farms” isn’t very convincing and is not a winning argument as most people are struggling to make ends meet, working harder to compensate for their prior living standards, and some seeing that their leadership has misplaced priorities from what they expect of government.

Instead of prioritizing alternative energy sources or focusing on improving people’s livelihoods here and there makes them hard to believe you.

[jaichind]

https://www.lefigaro.fr/societes/l-ukraine-met-le-budget-europeen-sous-pression-20231005

"Ukraine puts European budget under pressure"

EU Audit Chamber is sounding the alarm on how to get the funds to the next round of Ukraine aid.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-06/russia-s-budget-deficit-shrinks-sharply-buoyed-by-rising-revenue

"Russia’s Budget Deficit Shrinks Sharply, Buoyed by Rising Non-Oil Revenue"

The fiscal deficit shrank in September by 660 billion rubles ($6.6 billion) to just 1% of Russia’s gross domestic product, according to Finance Ministry data published late Friday. Russia saw a surplus for the second straight month, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Now Putin is claiming that Russia's 2023 budget deficit will be 1% of GDP vs the planned 2% of GDP.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/1e317be3-1837-45da-beef-be0347937fd9

"Moldova’s president says Wagner leader planned coup to remove her"

[pppolitics]

Most in the west don’t work in the weapon industry or are beltway elites, and the huge amount of money given to Ukraine based on their own comprehension is too much as they are left with getting less than before the war. Blaming it on “geopolitical ADHD”, “populism”, or “Russian troll farms” isn’t very convincing and is not a winning argument as most people are struggling to make ends meet, working harder to compensate for their prior living standards, and some seeing that their leadership has misplaced priorities from what they expect of government.

Instead of prioritizing alternative energy sources or focusing on improving people’s livelihoods here and there makes them hard to believe you.

You still haven't learned from World War II that appeasement doesn't work.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Most in the west don’t work in the weapon industry or are beltway elites, and the huge amount of money given to Ukraine based on their own comprehension is too much as they are left with getting less than before the war. Blaming it on “geopolitical ADHD”, “populism”, or “Russian troll farms” isn’t very convincing and is not a winning argument as most people are struggling to make ends meet, working harder to compensate for their prior living standards, and some seeing that their leadership has misplaced priorities from what they expect of government.

Instead of prioritizing alternative energy sources or focusing on improving people’s livelihoods here and there makes them hard to believe you.

60% of the country support giving arms to Ukraine so sorry to break the narrative you’re trying to push

[jaichind]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-6-2023

ISW previously assessed that Russian forces were likely struggling to conduct tactical to operational level rotations along the entire frontline, but is revising this assessment considering the apparent rotation of substantial elements of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division and two VDV divisions to and from the frontline south of Orikhiv.