Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I wasn't talking about separatism. Separatism came as a direct consequence of Maidan.  And yes, it has to do with Russian influence (btw any world power would not let it slide in their own backyard) but to ignore all other stuff that was going on is disingenuous

What other stuff going on? I have very clearly acknowledged the genuine Antimaidan movement (it's actually very important to me), I have only said that it was characterized by regionalism and federalism rather than separatism and Russian nationalism. Of course it was Russophilic, as opposed to being anti-Russia, but to say, as you said, that they felt closer to Russia than Ukraine, is fiction. They felt closer to Russia than Maidan, but in their own way, they were still patriots. Since the war started in 2022, we have not seen any pro-Russia sentiment in unoccupied eastern and southern Ukraine, for obvious reasons. But also because even Antimaidan Ukrainians were not disassociated from their own country.

Party of Regions was not a rabidly pro-Russia organization. Yanukovych won 2010 on a moderate platform focused on restoring economic stability and a middle path regarding relations with Russia and the west, promising to put Ukraine on a path to EU membership! Of course the party was deeply tied to Russian interests, but being the "party of Russia" isn't exactly a winning strategy.

I literally said closer to Russia than Maidan not Ukraine. You said it yourself russophillic, what are we talking about again?

I might have gotten confused, to me you seemed to be saying Antimaidan demonstrators felt closer to Russia then Ukraine, I tried to strongly disabuse you of that notion, but I conceded they may feel closer to Russia then they do to the new government (while still retaining their patriotism).

Let me restate the two claims I have made today and yesterday, you tell me if you disagree.

1. Yanukovych was removed in a constitutionally legitimate manner, and morally speaking, abrogated his own democratic mandate by illegally passing and enforcing the Anti-Protest Laws. He fled the country despite no threat to his personal safety in Kharkiv, and his actions, especially consistent with months of time dedicated to smuggling embezzled wealth out of the country, were consistent with a longstanding fear of legal consequences.
2. The Antimaidan movement was majority populist, regionalist, and federalist in character, not separatist. It was Russophilic, but not Russian nationalist in character. Separatism in Donetsk and Luhansk was almost entirely astroturfed by Russian special operations and later, direct intervention, and was in no significant way popular or organic.
3. I have also clarified misconceptions about language.

I strongly disagree with 1
Partialy agree with 2
Partialy agree with 3

Very well. Then I just have two questions for you. What did Yanukovych spend late 2013 and early 2014 physically transporting railcars of his wealth out of the country? And why did he leave Kharkiv for Rostov?

I would be cautious for information on the first one, as for the second one, as I stated numerous times I don't like to imply motives which are in person's head. I mean, I could make a reason of him being afraid for his own safety even in Kharkov, but you could say it wasn't and it's not factual in any way because we need to get into people's thinking. I'm not denying Yanukovich was corrupt (guess what Zelensky is too), I'm denying his ouster from power being legitimate. 

The issue remains that all of this, insofar as it's true, is a coherent-to-decent argument in defense of Russia's actions in 2014, not its actions in 2022 and 2023.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Even If Maiden was a Coup id still support it

[Senator Incitatus]

Even If Maiden was a Coup id still support it

The American Revolution was a French-backed regime change (not coup per se), and I still fervently support it. It is necessary, not merely acceptable, for revolutionary movements to rely on some level of foreign aid. Successful revolutions are successful at manipulating that aid rather than being manipulated by it.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Maybe he'll finish the job his father cucked out of...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/wagner-pavel-prigozhin-putin-russia-ukraine-b2422174.html

[jaichind]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/10/02/ukraine-prepares-for-winter-again-as-russia-targets-its-power-grid

"Ukraine prepares for winter again as Russia targets its power grid
Things may be tougher this time"



In retrospect, I think the Russia attack on Ukraine's energy grid system last year was as much about burning Ukraine's resources to repair them as an attempt to exhaust Ukraine's air defense system.  Last year Russia focused on energy distribution.    This year it might be energy generation.  We will see.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1706157492462379203

Those crafty Russians came up with a cunning scheme of creating a false illusion of battlefield success by actually achieving battlefield success.  Diabolical.

They are just as crafty as the sneaky PRC

Funny parady article

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-membership-ukraine-accession-talks-december/

"EU set to announce Ukraine accession talks by December"

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/ukraine-krieg-bittere-zwischenbilanz-der-gegenoffensive-85606474.bild.html

"Ukraine achieves NO strategic successes"

Bild describes the results of the Ukraine Counteroffensive as "bitter"

[jaichind]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/tactic-known-elastic-defense-one-181821167.html

NYT: "Tactic Known as ‘Elastic Defense’ Is One of Several Factors Aiding Russia"

The tactic sees Russian forces pull back to a second line of positions, encouraging Ukrainian troops to advance, then strike back when the opposing forces are vulnerable — either while moving across open ground or as they arrive at recently abandoned Russian positions.

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66984944

"Ukraine war: Western allies say they are running out of ammunition"

Adm Rob Bauer, Nato's most senior military official, told the Warsaw Security Forum that "the bottom of the barrel is now visible".

[Hindsight was 2020]

jaichind citing an author who has been a punchline in this thread (even Virginia has made memes mocking him) is very on brand lol

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1709182299399467478?s=12
A very interesting thread on an ongoing drug crisis in Russia’s military for anyone interested

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/freudgreyskull/status/1709304423258702193?s=12
https://twitter.com/ukrainene/status/1709303955572892029?s=12
Interesting developments to keep an eye on.

[jaichind]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20612

"Ukraine’s ‘Ridiculously Powerful’ 82nd Air Assault Brigade Is Finally in Action"

It has been 1.5 months since the Kyiv Post announced that the "Ridiculously Powerful" 82nd Air Assault Brigade will be deployed in the Robotyne area.  After that, I could not find any news of the exploits of this "Ridiculously Powerful" unit.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1709173901031309682?s=12
This is just a snippet, there’s more tg vids and rumblings of this attack being even worse

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-membership-ukraine-accession-talks-december/

"EU set to announce Ukraine accession talks by December"

I wonder how they'll handle this.
It will be interesting to watch.

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/u-s-funding-cutoff-threatens-ukraines-economic-stability-82716679

"U.S. Funding Cutoff Threatens Ukraine’s Economic Stability"

As a government shutdown loomed, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Sept. 24 that Ukraine would face a severe economic and political shock in the middle of the counteroffensive this fall if Congress cut off assistance to Kyiv.

The U.S. and other donor nations effectively pay the salaries of 150,000 civil servants in Ukraine and more than half a million teachers, professors and school workers, not to mention government expenses ranging from health care to housing subsidies.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-membership-ukraine-accession-talks-december/

"EU set to announce Ukraine accession talks by December"

I wonder how they'll handle this.
It will be interesting to watch.

It will be a process where problems are solved by dumping a pile of cash on Ukraine Poland and other East EU states.  It will mostly be about Germany paying and involve various quid pro quo like

https://www.ft.com/content/d4452485-8132-427f-abb4-475b634f6883

"Brussels to unfreeze Hungary funds as it seeks help for Ukraine"

[jaichind]

Politico's definition of Nazi seems similar to Trudeau which is:

Trucker protest with one Nazi flag -> All of them are Nazi
Someone serving in Waffen SS -> It's complicated

Nazi should just be redefined in the dictionary as: People we do not like

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-membership-ukraine-accession-talks-december/

"EU set to announce Ukraine accession talks by December"

I wonder how they'll handle this.
It will be interesting to watch.

It will be a process where problems are solved by dumping a pile of cash on Ukraine Poland and other East EU states.  It will mostly be about Germany paying and involve various quid pro quo like

https://www.ft.com/content/d4452485-8132-427f-abb4-475b634f6883

"Brussels to unfreeze Hungary funds as it seeks help for Ukraine"

Ah, so it'll be a cascade of quid pro quo to get the desired result (most likely)
About what would have expected if forced to guess...

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/a8834254-b8f9-4385-b043-04c2a7cd54c8

"EU estimates Ukraine entitled to €186bn after accession"

Sounds great for Ukraine if they pull it off. I wonder who is going to pay.

[jaichind]

This is what Trudeau does behind the scenes

https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/799227/guerre-en-ukraine-ottawa-permet-entreprises-contourner-sanctions-economiques-imposees-russie

"Ottawa allows companies to circumvent its economic sanctions imposed on Russia"

An analysis of federal data on international trade carried out by Le Devoir shows that these authorizations, given piecemeal by Ottawa, have thus favored the export of materials and equipment in areas nevertheless considered "delicate" for the allies of the Ukraine, since it is linked to weapons manufacturing or oil and mining exploration.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is what Trudeau does behind the scenes

https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/799227/guerre-en-ukraine-ottawa-permet-entreprises-contourner-sanctions-economiques-imposees-russie

"Ottawa allows companies to circumvent its economic sanctions imposed on Russia"

An analysis of federal data on international trade carried out by Le Devoir shows that these authorizations, given piecemeal by Ottawa, have thus favored the export of materials and equipment in areas nevertheless considered "delicate" for the allies of the Ukraine, since it is linked to weapons manufacturing or oil and mining exploration.

It seems Trudeau has established interests at home to please.

[CumbrianLefty]

Nazi should just be redefined in the dictionary as: People we do not like

Hasn't that basically been the definition for over half a century?

[Red Velvet]

Politico's definition of Nazi seems similar to Trudeau which is:

Trucker protest with one Nazi flag -> All of them are Nazi
Someone serving in Waffen SS -> It's complicated

Nazi should just be redefined in the dictionary as: People we do not like

Mainstream media has always been a tool to drive public opinion towards the elites and establishment wills, but they lost a lot of power with the rise of social media, which stimulates them to be even more shameless in their attempts to control the narrative instead of making them try to regain their credibility again.