Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://thepressunited.com/updates/polish-leader-makes-veiled-threat-to-ukraine/

"Polish leader makes veiled threat to Ukraine"

Polish President Andrzej Duda has argued that Kiev should not forget the crucial role Poland plays in Western military aid to Ukraine. The veiled threat came after cash-strapped Ukraine launched legal action against Warsaw over Poland’s embargo on the imports of Ukrainian grain.

[Red Velvet]

Zelensky also addressed this matter in his UN speech:

https://twitter.com/theLemniscat/status/1704235041637773761

Basically, you have Poland; Hungary; Czech Republic; Slovakia as these countries which strongly support Ukraine but only on a military level but are OBVIOUSLY using the war as an economic opportunity (duh! Everyone pretending they are not is a disgusting liar).

The harsh protectionist nature of European countries is not something new or exclusive to Ukraine at all, it’s something every country in the world is familiar with. Protectionism for me; Liberalism to all of you so that you can buy from us.

Ukraine, geopolitically speaking, is a country that is in an AWFUL location: sandwiched between soulless European ghouls and bloodthirsty Russian hawks - which is exactly why they should have adopted an independent neutral strategy to balance themselves between two sides that don’t give a damn about them.

Kissing up European ass with the expectation they would ever be treated as equal part of the club or even respected as such was always naive, to not say extremely dumb and suicidal. The stronger the limitations you have because of the circumstances you are in, the more cautious you need to be. You don’t adopt the positions of open confrontation towards your neighbors, even if it’s rhetorical speech only, if you cannot really sustain it.

They did it because they felt emboldened after believing they had full western support because the West hates Russia - which is a simplistic and childish view, probably inherited from a cold war bipolarized worldview. The West hating Russia doesn’t mean they will necessarily like you for being against it too, if you don’t happen to fit within their self-interests.

This is something that I know to my heart as part of a “Peripheral Western” country. We are part of ~civilized western world~ only when it fits the Western countries interests and they need your help for something. Otherwise, we’re forgotten and dismissed just as some savages and they will gaslight you for not meeting their club standards.

Once Zelensky starts becoming too inconvenient, watch him be easily scapegoated from hero to horrible leadership by Western media. However, they will NEVER criticize their own countries for emboldening and validating all that.

I kinda understand Ukraine behavior as every one of us has believed or acted like we were part of the “Western club”. Some still do here in Latin America, it doesn’t surprise me at all that in Eastern Europe is even more common since they at least are more inclined to have stronger ~European identity~.

And is precisely for knowing through my own eyes that this aspiration always leads to disasters that I cannot help but loathe Zelensky and Ukraine’s motivations on an instinctive level, even if they’re the most tragic victims from this misconception and bad strategy. You don’t have to be submissive to an authoritarian Russia wills, but you don’t openly pick sides when that will inevitably bring you chaos. Every Latin American  that has identified itself as a “Westerner” either was a fascist wanting external support from powerful countries to get a hold on power or some weak impressed incompetent f*** who thinks they’re closer to European identity because of cultural matters (their family came from Portugal and Germany after all!) as if it wasn’t economic matters that dictated global dynamics. Which puts us closer background to Africa and Asia than Europe regardless of cultural beliefs, so we have to be neutral.

I get that Ukraine might be neither of that stuff (at least on a main sense) and just wanted an easy way out of the circumstance they exist on - which is at the side of Russia - by entering NATO and EU. But very few consideration has been given regarding whether: a) Western nations even WANT them in both NATO and EU b) the global geopolitical implications of such move. It’s okay if you think that’s in your self-interest but no one else is obliged to act based on your self-interest as a priority.

It’s funny in a tragic sense though, because people LOVE to use Eastern Europe as a token to validate the most hawkish position possible. Watch now people sh**t on Eastern Europe for prioritizing their economic matters (gasp! How dare them?) instead of prioritizing solidarity with Ukraine.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-20/ukraine-reaps-a-big-harvest-but-war-risks-trapping-it-at-home

"Ukraine Reaps a Big Harvest, But War Risks Trapping It at Home"

Russian attacks on export routes through both the Black Sea and Danube River remain a constant threat for shipping out crops that help feed the world. That’s making it harder and more expensive to squeeze cargoes out through Europe, causing supplies to pile up in Ukraine.

Russia had a bumper harvest as well and they are able to move their grain out to the world market depressing prices.  Keeping Ukraine agriculture products bottled up in Ukraine also helps Russia in putting a floor on world food prices.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-19/us-allies-see-ukraine-war-grinding-on-need-for-long-term-plan

"US and G-7 Allies Now Expect War in Ukraine to Drag On for Years"

The US and its Group of Seven allies see the war in Ukraine lasting for the medium or long term and understand that their planning needs to reflect that timeline, a senior State Department official said Tuesday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. 

I agree.  This will be a war of attrition and exhaustion for both sides lasting for years.  Economic and fiscal staying power will be critical.

[bilaps]

Land > People. This isn’t sustainable though, so I wonder how long this insanity will this go?

What makes you think Russia would even honor a negotiated settlement in the medium to long term? A lot of Ukrainians believe that a "deal" would only be valid for as long as it takes Russia to regroup & rebuild its military and formulate a new strategy to accomplish its original goal. Ukraine will find itself preoccupied with rebuilding afterwards and unable to keep their population mobilized for war longer than Russia. Western aid in the event of another conflict might not come as easily, and depending on the time frame, the west could be preoccupied by China/Taiwan. Ukraine could once again find themselves in a weaker position when Russia decides to give it another try, but this time without significant military aid to back them up.

Negotiations need to be seen as a valid path to peace by Ukrainians because the consequences of a bad decision here are very grave.

Ukraine literally admitted all that regarding the Minsk agreement.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-19/poland-signals-it-will-stop-aid-for-ukrainian-refugees-next-year

"Poland Signals It Will Stop Aid for Ukrainian Refugees Next Year"

Poland will likely cut financial support to the million Ukrainian refugees it is hosting, the government said, in a move that may further undermine ties with its neighbor that have been strained in a clash over grain imports.

In theory, Ukraine might welcome this as this means some of those  Ukrainian refugees will go back to bo Ukraine to be mobilized.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1704463483926974643?s=12
Bavonva 🔥

[jaichind]

https://www.barrons.com/news/poland-may-expand-ukraine-import-ban-to-other-products-39573551

"Poland May Expand Ukraine Import Ban To Other Products"

Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on Wednesday cautioned that the EU member would ban additional Ukrainian imports if Kyiv were to escalate their conflict over a grain embargo.

The more I think about the more I think this is shadowboxing by Ukraine and Poland for the main purpure of pressing Germany and the USA to paper over these problems by dumping a bunch of cash on both Poland and Ukraine.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1704476343516160432?s=12
The Mirage transfer makes a lot of sense when you are thinking about the future of the Ukrainian AF. The Mirage's would complement the F-16s quite nicely in that they could take on more of the frontline ground attack stuff that the Su-24s / Su-25s are doing right now, and the F-16s could perform the air superiority type role

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1704393187383452003

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1704476343516160432?s=12
The Mirage transfer makes a lot of sense when you are thinking about the future of the Ukrainian AF. The Mirage's would complement the F-16s quite nicely in that they could take on more of the frontline ground attack stuff that the Su-24s / Su-25s are doing right now, and the F-16s could perform the air superiority type role

When better fighters are available for transfer, what's the point of the Mirage 2000?

I am talking about Australia's retired F-18.

[Storr]

Good news:

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1704466802477047852?s=20

[jaichind]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force says that their spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo is "suspended immediately pending the investigation."  I guess going after Senator Vance finally got her in trouble especially when Yelensky is in DC trying to get more $$$ and angering USA Senators does not sound like a good way to get more money.

https://twitter.com/TDF_UA/status/1704513695508774938

[Helsinkian]

Apparently the war is felt in Sudan too, with Ukraine striking with drones against a Russia-backed militia:

Ukraine 'likely' behind strikes in Sudan, Ukrainian military source says (CNN, Youtube)

[pppolitics]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force says that their spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo is "suspended immediately pending the investigation."  I guess going after Senator Vance finally got her in trouble especially when Yelensky is in DC trying to get more $$$ and angering USA Senators does not sound like a good way to get more money.

https://twitter.com/TDF_UA/status/1704513695508774938

Vance is one of the useless Trumpers who was never going to vote for Ukraine aid anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

one of the most amusing things about this thread is how compucomp is too cowardly to post here at all anymore but never fails to recommend a Putin simp post (and is usually the only recommend on it.)

[PSOL]

Apparently the war is felt in Sudan too, with Ukraine striking with drones against a Russia-backed militia:

Ukraine 'likely' behind strikes in Sudan, Ukrainian military source says (CNN, Youtube)

I approve such use of resources

[jaichind]

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/poland-stops-sending-weapons-to-ukraine-says-pm-41460

"Poland stops sending weapons to Ukraine says PM"

Poland-Ukraine escalation continues.  Perhaps this is also PiS trying to make sure that the Confederation does not take votes from it due to the Ukraine issue.

[bilaps]

one of the most amusing things about this thread is how compucomp is too cowardly to post here at all anymore but never fails to recommend a Putin simp post (and is usually the only recommend on it.)

the most amusing thing is people constantly talking about other posters which they don't like rather than focusing on the topic itself.

this is new level though, not really talking about other posters but the people who recommend post

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Vance is one of the useless Trumpers who was never going to vote for Ukraine aid anyway.

All-in-all, while Vance is useless on the Ukraine issue, it is possible that some Senators it would be better if they were at least on the fence would not be brought over to Ukraine's side with such kind of rhetoric. AKA having to deal with a "you said this about my co-workers, explain yourselves" situation is not worth the time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Apparently the war is felt in Sudan too, with Ukraine striking with drones against a Russia-backed militia:

Ukraine 'likely' behind strikes in Sudan, Ukrainian military source says (CNN, Youtube)

This feels like a good sign for Ukraine's power projection capability. Perhaps we'll see Ukraine getting involved against Russia in Africa more deeply in the future.

[Red Velvet]

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/poland-stops-sending-weapons-to-ukraine-says-pm-41460

"Poland stops sending weapons to Ukraine says PM"

Poland-Ukraine escalation continues.  Perhaps this is also PiS trying to make sure that the Confederation does not take votes from it due to the Ukraine issue.

Oooooops I guess those European country memes about “Poland = based; Hungary = cringe” will have to end now.

I can’t help but sympathize more with Ukraine on this matter though, Eastern European landscape politically is basically hell and they’re the sacrificial lamb of this non-cohesive group. Used as a cautionary tale for domestic purposes only. BOTH Poland and Hungary were always equally cringe as hell, alongside most of the region. It suffers from a simultaneous anti-Europe and anti-Russia right-wing complex that doesn’t translate well in the current world logic.

A bunch of countries that seem to despise internationalism, unless they feel they can get something out of it just for themselves. They all have much more in common with Russia than what they would rather admit. Ukraine may have been useful to up the “Anti-Russia” historical profile of these countries early on the war but Poland has elections next October.

Mix that with Ukraine somewhat not fully getting that Western countries don’t really care all that much about them - which leads them to act somewhat entitled to the help they receive after the initial Western media and political hype with the invasion validating this entitlement - you simply have a geopolitical tragedy on the making. No one is a friend to anyone, but ESPECIALLY in Eastern Europe.

The West however, even if less motivated, kinda created the political obligation of continuously sending stuff to Ukraine though because they cannot just suddenly abandon Ukraine for its own luck. I predict that even if they start sending stuff in a lesser volume, they will keep doing it until it ends.

Exceptions are crazy people that don’t really give a damn about geopolitical obligations. So if Trump really wins US presidency, who knows, he could very well do just that.

[Red Velvet]

The President of Poland has made an analogy that I think it very aptly characterizes not only Ukraine, but the fact it has been made says something about Poland/Eastern Europe selfishness (or better saying, nationalism) as well.

It was said: “Helping Ukraine is like helping someone who is drowning. You try to help but the person is so desperate that it puts their hands on you and pulls you to the bottom of sea with them”

https://twitter.com/Ramy_Sawma/status/1704261816895897669

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1704646082213429560?s=12
Fighting around Verbove is about to get heavy it seems

[Red Velvet]

Zelensky met with Lula in the UN:

https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1704611566061048241?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogl...

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1704613736525234201