Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/daenemark-niederlande-kampfjet-f-16-lieferung-krieg-russland-ukraine-100.html

"What the F-16 jets mean for Ukraine"

ZDF argues that F-16 will help but Russian air superiority will remain and F-16 should not be viewed as a game changer.

What Russian air superiority? We've known since about a month into the war that the Russian air force is barely functional.

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66542065.amp

"Ukraine war: The men who don't want to fight

Ukraine is struggling to meet its demand for soldiers."

[CumbrianLefty]

A significant development, as the Orthodox NATO and EU countries (Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece) have been the some of the most hesitant in militarily supporting Ukraine due to religious and historic ties with Russia:

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1693701811784265847?s=20

They should be informed that Ukraine is also an Orthodox country. Since the 10th century to the present.

Though with substantial non-Orthodox minorities.

Even before you get to the bitter split (even pre-war) between the Russian and Ukrainian churches.

[oldtimer]

http://www.1prime.biz/news/_Putin_Russian_budget_to_have_surplus_in_July%E2%80%93September/0/%7B57389966-A52D-4107-BBFD-F2A09C3EBC8F%7D.uif

"Putin: Russian budget to have surplus in July–September"

Putin claims Russia will run a budget surplus in q3 2023 and keep the 2023 budget deficit at the planned 2% vs something like 3.3% that most outside expects. I am skeptical but Purin will have a lot more inside information to make thia claim. 

This reminds me of when the British Government charged it's soldiers for each bullet they fired to balance the budget during the American Revolution.

That's how wars can be lost.

Also tells you the priority of Putin is cheapskate economising instead of military procurements.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1694364932165284266

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Though with substantial non-Orthodox minorities.

In Russia, the palette of religious minorities is much richer. Including own sectarians, Old Believers and neo-pagans.

Even before you get to the bitter split (even pre-war) between the Russian and Ukrainian churches.

Given that the Russian Orthodox Church collaborated with Nazi Germany and the Russische Befreiungsarmee in WWII, and now blesses Putin's idiotic war against Ukraine, to break away from such a Church means to keep the faith.

In essence, the Russian Orthodox Church has long turned into something between its own Russian ethno-religion and a division of the KGB, which has little in common with global Orthodoxy. The Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople condemned the Russian Orthodox Church. Therefore, if Orthodox countries want to support some Orthodox country, they have to prefer Ukraine, not Russia.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I am skeptical but Purin will have a lot more inside information to make thia claim.  

Somewhere I have already heard this phrase from you in its entirety. With it, if you look like a resident of a country like Russia or the PRC, then from that part of society that has not seen anything but villas and yachts. Because the real skepticism of the inhabitants there is that they perceive the meaning of the words of their authorities as the reverse of what was said. Well, if I'm right about your origins, then your words should be treated the same way. Thus, we're translating your "I am skeptical, but..." as "I am a naive, beautiful-hearted child who takes everything at face value," and the second part of your sentence is immediately ceasing to contradict the first part and is beginning to harmonize with it.

[jaichind]

I am skeptical but Purin will have a lot more inside information to make thia claim.  

Somewhere I have already heard this phrase from you in its entirety. With it, if you look like a resident of a country like Russia or the PRC, then from that part of society that has not seen anything but villas and yachts. Because the real skepticism of the inhabitants there is that they perceive the meaning of the words of their authorities as the reverse of what was said. Well, if I'm right about your origins, then your words should be treated the same way. Thus, we're translating your "I am skeptical, but..." as "I am a naive, beautiful-hearted child who takes everything at face value," and the second part of your sentence is immediately ceasing to contradict the first part and is beginning to harmonize with it.

I think it is more: Publically published empirical data seems to indicate that a Russian deficit of 2% of GDP is unlikely but there is no reason for Putin to make a prediction/assertion and then be wrong by the end of the year only to undermine his authority.    So the only logical explanation is Putin has access to data, information, and plans that are not publically known ergo there are reasons to believe the 2% figure.  

A couple of months ago, before public numbers came out, Putin claimed that the 2023 Q2 YoY GDP growth would be close to 4.9% when most public estimates have it more like 4.5%.  I expressed similar skepticism that 4.9% does not seem to match publically known data and trends but also indicated that Putin will have inside information that is not publically disclosed.  Again, there is no reason for Putin to make such an assertion that is false when he will be soon proven wrong and lose authority.   Sort of the same logic applies here.  

[Comrade Funk]

It must get tiring to constantly scourge the internet for Russian apologia.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Prigozhin has had a bad accident, supposedly.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Putin killed his best friend 💔😭

[TheTide]

Prigozhin has had a bad accident, supposedly.

The BBC is definitively saying that he's dead, along with nine others on board the plane.

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1694395180365775245

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1694397870592471510

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Lol. Lmao, even. Officer down!

[jaichind]

https://www.wprost.pl/swiat/11357716/jak-zatrzymac-wojne-w-ukrainie-gen-skrzypczak-wariant-koreanski-bylby-najlepszy.html

"How to stop the war in Ukraine? Gen. Skrzypczak: The Korean variant would be the best"

Polish general Waldemar Skrzypczak says "The absence of prospects for ending the conflict means slow agony for Ukraine" and that the best outcome would be a  "Korean" scenario, which means freezing the front line and establishing it as a temporary border.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Very on brand that Russia is better at killing their own commanders over Ukrainians ones lol

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Prigozhin was an idiot for stopping his coup when he did. You can't try to coup, stop and not have something like this happen.

[Storr]

What a coincidence!

I'm sure the crash was a complete accident.

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1694398848368627917?s=20

[oldtimer]

Prigozhin was an idiot for stopping his coup when he did. You can't try to coup, stop and not have something like this happen.

Only idiots trust Putin.

If you have to kill Putin to survive, kill him first ask questions later.

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/screaminbutcalm/status/1105577845642878976?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/22/ukraines-army-is-running-out-of-men-to-recruit/

"Ukraine’s army is running out of men to recruit, and time to win"
"Victory may be in sight for Vladimir Putin"

[Storr]

What a coincidence!

I'm sure the crash was a complete accident.

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1694398848368627917?s=20

Two bangs at what looks like altitude? Interesting. That doesn't make it sound like pilot error...

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694397010680361239?s=20

[oldtimer]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/22/ukraines-army-is-running-out-of-men-to-recruit/

"Ukraine’s army is running out of men to recruit, and time to win"
"Victory may be in sight for Vladimir Putin"

Putin busy murdering his best people after Victory ?

Stalin did the same thing when he no longer needed them.

So will Jaichind and Woody be next on the liquidation list ?

Will they defect to the West before Putin murders them too ?

[Storr]

Either Ukraine has such a good intelligence network inside Russia they placed a bomb on Prigozhin's personal plane at an airport in Moscow without getting noticed/caught or Putin (probably the FSB, specifically) did it. I know which one I'd bet did it:

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1694403110892916744?s=20