Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-drones-dji-china-america-80a1e1f9

"Why U.S. Drones Don’t Cut It for Ukraine.  They’re too expensive to deploy at scale."



Reminds me of Stalin's quote: “Quantity has a quality all its own.”  And the way to get quantity is standardization.

 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-drones-dji-china-america-80a1e1f9

"Why U.S. Drones Don’t Cut It for Ukraine.  They’re too expensive to deploy at scale."



Reminds me of Stalin's quote: “Quantity has a quality all its own.”

 

Even with the aid it's getting, Ukraine remains a dirt poor country, and it is subject to economic restraints.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1690480032257384448

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Even with the aid it's getting, Ukraine remains a dirt poor country, and it is subject to economic restraints.

Try to guess who makes it poor.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Even with the aid it's getting, Ukraine remains a dirt poor country, and it is subject to economic restraints.

Try to guess who makes it poor.

There are various factors going into it.
1) the immense effort the Soviet Era saw into building the area up has been undermined by developments reminiscent of those in America's Rust Belt; these areas were a major part of the industrial backbone of the Russian Empire, even
2) the difficulty the country has if it ever wants to diversify away from having an agricultural-driven economy, and said agricultural economy is great to have but limiting in its own ways
3) emigration out of Ukraine and bad demographics that have long made Russia's look excellent by comparison (there were 50 million Ukrainians in 2000...)
4) corruption has a role, though inherent associations between what is labelled as corrupt and what isn't has a level of considerable subjectivity. Established interests benefiting from the actions of the state is a thing practically everywhere you look

Things Ukraine does have on its side:
1) a growing high tech scene in Kiev and other cities; the weakened state of post-Soviet industrial economies does not mean the country is forever doomed to be poor, in fact as late adopters they might do really well in the long-run
2) its highly efficient farmland gives it a decent economic base from which to build from
3) the loads of aid from elsewhere should assist it in getting on its feet in the future someway or another
4) that Soviet legacy of infrastructure is still there, despite the best efforts of the Russians to sabotage it; and they have the know-how to help rebuild these things even in a worst-case scenario

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Even with the aid it's getting, Ukraine remains a dirt poor country, and it is subject to economic restraints.

Try to guess who makes it poor.

There are various factors going into it.
1) the immense effort the Soviet Era saw into building the area up has been undermined by developments reminiscent of those in America's Rust Belt; these areas were a major part of the industrial backbone of the Russian Empire, even
2) the difficulty the country has if it ever wants to diversify away from having an agricultural-driven economy, and said agricultural economy is great to have but limiting in its own ways
3) emigration out of Ukraine and bad demographics that have long made Russia's look excellent by comparison (there were 50 million Ukrainians in 2000...)
4) corruption has a role, though inherent associations between what is labelled as corrupt and what isn't has a level of considerable subjectivity. Established interests benefiting from the actions of the state is a thing practically everywhere you look

Things Ukraine does have on its side:
1) a growing high tech scene in Kiev and other cities; the weakened state of post-Soviet industrial economies does not mean the country is forever doomed to be poor, in fact as late adopters they might do really well in the long-run
2) its highly efficient farmland gives it a decent economic base from which to build from
3) the loads of aid from elsewhere should assist it in getting on its feet in the future someway or another
4) that Soviet legacy of infrastructure is still there, despite the best efforts of the Russians to sabotage it; and they have the know-how to help rebuild these things even in a worst-case scenario

There are a lot of words when it was enough just to say that the Kremlin is purposefully and cynically destroying Ukraine. The migration and demographic problems you mentioned are suddenly also related to this.

It does not take a genius to understand that after the victory and arrest of collaborators and saboteurs, Ukraine will quickly restore its economy and its human potential.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Even with the aid it's getting, Ukraine remains a dirt poor country, and it is subject to economic restraints.

Try to guess who makes it poor.

There are various factors going into it.
1) the immense effort the Soviet Era saw into building the area up has been undermined by developments reminiscent of those in America's Rust Belt; these areas were a major part of the industrial backbone of the Russian Empire, even
2) the difficulty the country has if it ever wants to diversify away from having an agricultural-driven economy, and said agricultural economy is great to have but limiting in its own ways
3) emigration out of Ukraine and bad demographics that have long made Russia's look excellent by comparison (there were 50 million Ukrainians in 2000...)
4) corruption has a role, though inherent associations between what is labelled as corrupt and what isn't has a level of considerable subjectivity. Established interests benefiting from the actions of the state is a thing practically everywhere you look

Things Ukraine does have on its side:
1) a growing high tech scene in Kiev and other cities; the weakened state of post-Soviet industrial economies does not mean the country is forever doomed to be poor, in fact as late adopters they might do really well in the long-run
2) its highly efficient farmland gives it a decent economic base from which to build from
3) the loads of aid from elsewhere should assist it in getting on its feet in the future someway or another
4) that Soviet legacy of infrastructure is still there, despite the best efforts of the Russians to sabotage it; and they have the know-how to help rebuild these things even in a worst-case scenario

There are a lot of words when it was enough just to say that the Kremlin is purposefully and cynically destroying Ukraine. The migration and demographic problems you mentioned are suddenly also related to this.

It does not take a genius to understand that after the victory and arrest of collaborators and saboteurs, Ukraine will quickly restore its economy and its human potential.

It goes without saying that Ukraine as a country is poorer than it otherwise would be because of Kremlin's activities. But the problems that Ukraine is undergoing are not so solely caused by the Kremlin that these deep structural factors aren't at play.

It feels extremely optimistic to broadcast that Ukraine would quickly restore itself in case Russia withdrew. The basis on which it had relative prosperity compared to other places in Eastern Europe in the later 1980s was being slowly undermined by changes before 2014. Also, I have made notice of many of these elements of Ukraine's position in multiple posts long before now, this is just the first time I've strung it all in one post. (In any case, I decided to list some good things about their situation to balance it out)

I have to assume Zelensky himself knows it's a big hole to climb out of and a long road, it's one that will take time to fix and the more money he can get to help in that task, the better. But willingness to work diligently and studiously and patiently, and steady leadership, are things that are even more important. Just because Ukraine is dirt-poor now does not mean it will be dirt-poor in 2060.

These words were written in German in reference to East Germany in the late 1940s, but they reflect well what the wellspring of a strengthened Ukraine in the future would probably look like, once you adjust for context.
Laßt uns pflügen, laßt uns bauen,
lernt und schafft wie nie zuvor,
und der eignen Kraft vertrauend,
steigt ein frei Geschlecht empor.
Deutsche Jugend, bestes Streben,
unsres Volks in dir vereint,
wirst du Deutschlands neues Leben.
Und die Sonne schön wie nie
𝄆 Über Deutschland scheint. 𝄇

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

You would demonstrate a greater understanding of the situation if you attributed this song to the future post-war Russia.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Ok, Phil citing the 3rd stanza of Becher's national anthem for the German Democratic Republic to stress the importance of the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine clearly wasn't on my bingo card. Well done!

[CumbrianLefty]

It was a banging anthem tbf, and of course the Soviet one was even better

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1691058810712895488?s=12
This is an interesting sector. UA doing a full blown crossing would be really risky but the Russians are very undermanned in this area

[Woody]

Azov company commander sentenced to life in Russian prison after being captured last year in Mariupol.

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2023-08-14-a-court-in-the-dpr-sentenced-a-ukrainian-azov-militant-accused-of-killing-a-wounded-man.BJ-j3oLv23.html

Nikolai Kushch, a soldier of the nationalist detachment "Azov" * of the National Guard of Ukraine, accused of killing a wounded soldier. The militant was sentenced to life imprisonment. The court found Kushch guilty under paragraphs "b", "c", "k" of the Criminal Code of Russia (murder of a person in a helpless state, committed in connection with the performance of official activities, motivated by political, ideological hatred and enmity) Earlier, the prosecutor's office of the Donetsk People's Republic sent a criminal case to the court against the commander of the company of the Armed Forces.

[Woody]

Imagine being so degraded that the only card you have is to celebrate capturing a village with a few dozen inhabitants left.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1691013540554186752?s=20
Looks like UA is starting to find a way to shoot down those damn helicopters

[Lykaon]

Imagine being so degraded that the only card you have is to celebrate capturing a village with a few dozen inhabitants left.

You mean like celebrating not-entirely-taking Bakhmut (population 0 now) like it was 1945 Berlin?

You should hurry up and offload your rubles, comrade. Enjoy the economic depression your motherland is falling into 🖕

[Woody]

Imagine being so degraded that the only card you have is to celebrate capturing a village with a few dozen inhabitants left.

You mean like celebrating not-entirely-taking Bakhmut (population 0 now) like it was 1945 Berlin?

You should hurry up and offload your rubles, comrade. Enjoy the economic depression your motherland is falling into 🖕

Wait, I thought you blocked me? And yes, Biden will no doubt do to that.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Given that the Russians have a nickname for Moscow Big Village, I know what Woody will say with bored face after the ZSU takes it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Bakhmut Bob just wants attention, best to just ignore the vatnik white noise machine

[Virginiá]

New US military aid package just dropped

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3491937/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

[Lykaon]

Urozhaine has been fully liberated. The front has been pushed down to Zavitne Bazhannia

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1691150412139925504?s=20


Russians got pounded on the way out as well. Apparently they didn’t have any armoured vehicles as were left to the mercy of the shells coming down

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1690647124202172416?s=20

[oldtimer]

New US military aid package just dropped

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3491937/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

That probably tells you what they are currently spending on the battlefield.

[oldtimer]

But the squiggly line for the British Pound will eventually go back up as long as the Bank of England and Westminster policymaking is stable and transparent. With the Russian Ruble, its squiggly line only goes down, and has been the case for decades. Only doing less worse than the Turkish Lira and the Argentine Peso isn't something to be proud of.

In any case, the Russian Central Bank has been hiking its rates to restrain the slide of the Ruble, far more aggressively than any western central bank. And the Ruble is still falling, but less quickly than in the absence of these rate hikes. All this was supposed to be over in three days.

What is this obsession of some with finance during warfare ?

The things that matter in a war are men and guns, not financial statistics sheets.

When Russia was losing badly the only thing peddled by some pro-russians was useless statistics.

I consider it bad news for Ukraine when it's side does the same.

[It’s so Joever]

But the squiggly line for the British Pound will eventually go back up as long as the Bank of England and Westminster policymaking is stable and transparent. With the Russian Ruble, its squiggly line only goes down, and has been the case for decades. Only doing less worse than the Turkish Lira and the Argentine Peso isn't something to be proud of.

In any case, the Russian Central Bank has been hiking its rates to restrain the slide of the Ruble, far more aggressively than any western central bank. And the Ruble is still falling, but less quickly than in the absence of these rate hikes. All this was supposed to be over in three days.

What is this obsession of some with finance during warfare ?

The things that matter in a war are men and guns, not financial statistics sheets.

When Russia was losing badly the only thing peddled by some pro-russians was useless statistics.

I consider it bad news for Ukraine when it's side does the same.

This is an extremely neorrealist view of things and the problem with that is that it ignores how inner workings of the state’s decision making. Especially for Western democracies supporting Ukraine, whether they continue to provide Ukraine with the support needed is contingent on public perception within the respective countries. Either the leader will sense the public is fed up and stop sending aid, or they will get voted out. The economy is a major factor of that opinion.

It matters a bit less for Russia due to their autocracy, but there is a certain point at which it the public will have had enough. Although that point is far distances from what optimists want to think.

[2952-0-0]

What is this obsession of some with finance during warfare ?

The things that matter in a war are men and guns, not financial statistics sheets.

When Russia was losing badly the only thing peddled by some pro-russians was useless statistics.

I consider it bad news for Ukraine when it's side does the same.

When the Ruble was strong last year, Putin's propagandists (also those on this board) claimed this was proof that Putin is a genius, and that western sanctions were impotent. If that's the case, what would a collapsing Ruble prove?

Most wars are ultimately won or lost on the home front, after all.

It matters a bit less for Russia due to their autocracy, but there is a certain point at which it the public will have had enough. Although that point is far distances from what optimists want to think.

But even for an autocracy, there's still a need to consider the opinions of the elite. Putin might not care about the opinion of Ivan on the street, but he needs to care about the opinions of the generals, the FSB, and the chef. And, as we saw two months ago, they have their own ways to remove him if they wanted to.

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1691013540554186752?s=20
Looks like UA is starting to find a way to shoot down those damn helicopters

Video evidence?