Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[smoltchanov]

And in addition - i doubt that Russian army used all technical resources at their disposal: it seems that even now "the most barbarical" are not heavily used, because an international opinion still matters a little for Russia authorities. But that can change if Ukrainian offensive becomes really successfull.

The Kremlin has already tried to destroy the Ukrainian electrical infrastructure and blew up Kakhovka Dam, turning southern Ukraine into a desert. What else could the Kremlin do more barbaric? Slip sh** to every Ukrainian in borscht?

Don't underestimate Russian military leadership. And not only them - political leadership too.... They can. And, sadly, most of the people here will gladly swallow a "justification" of it.... The level of support for this war in Russia is substantially exaggerated in Russia mass media, but it's high enough. Even in Moscow, with all it's perceived "liberalism" and opposition to present regime. In countryside it's a strong majority.....

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1684468902598770689?s=12
Funny I thought Klishchiivka would be the first liberation vid to drop but it sounds like it will be Staromaiorske

[Hindsight was 2020]

Well, i generally evaluate present day situation as close to stalemate with slight advantage to russian side. Not because i am Russian (people here know that i am sympathetic to Ukrainian cause and, surely, not a Putinist), but because of following:

1. Heavy advantage of Russian side in the air and in artillery (at least - now. That's a key word here, but i am not a Cassandra to predict future)

2. Russia being approximately 3 times more in population, so "the war of exhaustion" takes heavier toll from Ukraine then from Russia, though the later one is high enough.

3. At least 15 years of relentless propaganda in Russian mass media, that almost guarantees an "acceptable" (for government) level of support from low informed citizens. And "level of Internetization" in Russia, while substantially higher, then, say, 10 years ago, is still lower then in Europe (especially among older generation, still dependent on a TV for news, and you can imagine - what they see on their TV screens).

4 Some technical advantage of Russia in military equipment area. Ukraine could not completely defend Odessa from recent attacks, while all they could do with their drone attacks (including - on Moscow, where i live) was rather minimal.

5. Russia is not only a nuclear power, but big nuclear power, able to destroy all life on Earth. Yes, it will die too, but this very fact allows Russia leaders to prevent more active and massive help to Ukraine on part of the West.

Hence - the war will continue, and rather for a long time. Of course - the Russian army didn't prove to be "a second army of the world" as was stated many times - the simple fact, that it's "achievements" for almost 1,5 years are very modest, speaks for themselves, but still - not weak enough to collapse with first Ukrainian attacks as some people (including here) predicted.

P.S. All this is (as usual) - my personal IMHO, and result of my personal observation.

Calling the war a stalemate is pretty reasonable but I’d hesitate to say in Russia’s favor for several/rebuttal reasons.
1. As you yourself acknowledge at the end of the point Russia has an advantage now, if you look at the advantages Russia had in airpower and artillery at the start vs the advantage they have now it’s pretty fair to argue Russia is taking causalities in these area’s domestic output can’t replace
2. Russia’s population advantage is hampered by the fact that Putin and Russia’s political elites don’t want to mobilize people from major cities like Moscow and St Petersburg (for obvious political reasons) as they have been overwhelmingly targeting poor rural non-ethnic Russian areas which are already quickly drying up of quality manpower hence why they’re now raising the mobilization age to 70
3. This is a really good point and one that the pro-Ukrainian side (including me) have been dead wrong about. If anything people would be more likely to protest for Putin’s removal so his replacement can wage the war more effectively over pulling out. But that could very likely be tied with point 2 and the fact that the people with the most political and economic influence are left mostly untouched.
4. I disagree about the technology advantage. I find it really hard to argue the nation cranking out late Stalin era tanks has a technological advantage over the country employing leopards, challengers and soon abrams
5. Nukes seem to be the only card they haven’t played yet and China/India have both said they won’t defend Russia if it did that so I don’t know what else they could do at this point let alone the fact every dirty tactic they pull just hardens Ukrainian resolve as can be seen by the mention Odessa attack which saw the once formally pro-Russian mayor of Odessa putting out a statement on how much he and other Ukrainians hate Russians and will never forgive the atrocities of this war

[smoltchanov]

Well, i generally evaluate present day situation as close to stalemate with slight advantage to russian side. Not because i am Russian (people here know that i am sympathetic to Ukrainian cause and, surely, not a Putinist), but because of following:

1. Heavy advantage of Russian side in the air and in artillery (at least - now. That's a key word here, but i am not a Cassandra to predict future)

2. Russia being approximately 3 times more in population, so "the war of exhaustion" takes heavier toll from Ukraine then from Russia, though the later one is high enough.

3. At least 15 years of relentless propaganda in Russian mass media, that almost guarantees an "acceptable" (for government) level of support from low informed citizens. And "level of Internetization" in Russia, while substantially higher, then, say, 10 years ago, is still lower then in Europe (especially among older generation, still dependent on a TV for news, and you can imagine - what they see on their TV screens).

4 Some technical advantage of Russia in military equipment area. Ukraine could not completely defend Odessa from recent attacks, while all they could do with their drone attacks (including - on Moscow, where i live) was rather minimal.

5. Russia is not only a nuclear power, but big nuclear power, able to destroy all life on Earth. Yes, it will die too, but this very fact allows Russia leaders to prevent more active and massive help to Ukraine on part of the West.

Hence - the war will continue, and rather for a long time. Of course - the Russian army didn't prove to be "a second army of the world" as was stated many times - the simple fact, that it's "achievements" for almost 1,5 years are very modest, speaks for themselves, but still - not weak enough to collapse with first Ukrainian attacks as some people (including here) predicted.

P.S. All this is (as usual) - my personal IMHO, and result of my personal observation.

Calling the war a stalemate is pretty reasonable but I’d hesitate to say in Russia’s favor for several/rebuttal reasons.
1. As you yourself acknowledge at the end of the point Russia has an advantage now, if you look at the advantages Russia had in airpower and artillery at the start vs the advantage they have now it’s pretty fair to argue Russia is taking causalities in these area’s domestic output can’t replace
2. Russia’s population advantage is hampered by the fact that Putin and Russia’s political elites don’t want to mobilize people from major cities like Moscow and St Petersburg (for obvious political reasons) as they have been overwhelmingly targeting poor rural non-ethnic Russian areas which are already quickly drying up of quality manpower hence why they’re now raising the mobilization age to 70
3. This is a really good point and one that the pro-Ukrainian side (including me) have been dead wrong about. If anything people would be more likely to protest for Putin’s removal so his replacement can wage the war more effectively over pulling out. But that could very likely be tied with point 2 and the fact that the people with the most political and economic influence are left mostly untouched.
4. I disagree about the technology advantage. I find it really hard to argue the nation cranking out late Stalin era tanks has a technological advantage over the country employing leopards, challengers and soon abrams
5. Nukes seem to be the only card they haven’t played yet and China/India have both said they won’t defend Russia if it did that so I don’t know what else they could do at this point let alone the fact every dirty tactic they pull just hardens Ukrainian resolve as can be seen by the mention Odessa attack which saw the once formally pro-Russian mayor of Odessa putting out a statement on how much he and other Ukrainians hate Russians and will never forgive the atrocities of this war

That's exactly why i used word "slight" with "advantage" and stressed word "now". That's my forecast "for now". Anything may change with time...

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Don't underestimate Russian military leadership. And not only them - political leadership too.... They can. And, sadly, most of the people here will gladly swallow a "justification" of it.... The level of support for this war in Russia is substantially exaggerated in Russia mass media, but it's high enough. Even in Moscow, with all it's perceived "liberalism" and opposition to present regime. In countryside it's a strong majority.....

I agree with you that support for the Kremlin and the war in particular is very high in Russia, and not only in Russia. Even in my Catholic parish, in a small town in Kazakhstan, many support this. Even the Polish priest is supportive, just because he is a staunch conservative and traditionalist, and it seems to him that the Kremlin's narratives are in line with his values. To say that the rest of the townspeople, and Russians, and Kazakhs, and even Ukrainians, are saturated with Kremlin propaganda to the very top and sacredly believe it, is unnecessary.

Nevertheless, I am sure that despite the fact that the Kremlin has a free hand, it has already done all the meanness that it could do, and humanity can only investigate it to find out the enormity of scale and atrocity. It makes sense to be afraid of Xi, but the point to be afraid of Putin and be led to his blackmail has long been lost.

[Woody]

"Mariupol today"

[smoltchanov]

Don't underestimate Russian military leadership. And not only them - political leadership too.... They can. And, sadly, most of the people here will gladly swallow a "justification" of it.... The level of support for this war in Russia is substantially exaggerated in Russia mass media, but it's high enough. Even in Moscow, with all it's perceived "liberalism" and opposition to present regime. In countryside it's a strong majority.....

I agree with you that support for the Kremlin and the war in particular is very high in Russia, and not only in Russia. Even in my Catholic parish, in a small town in Kazakhstan, many support this. Even the Polish priest is supportive, just because he is a staunch conservative and traditionalist, and it seems to him that the Kremlin's narratives are in line with his values. To say that the rest of the townspeople, and Russians, and Kazakhs, and even Ukrainians, are saturated with Kremlin propaganda to the very top and sacredly believe it, is unnecessary.

Nevertheless, I am sure that despite the fact that the Kremlin has a free hand, it has already done all the meanness that it could do, and humanity can only investigate it to find out the enormity of scale and atrocity. It makes sense to be afraid of Xi, but the point to be afraid of Putin and be led to his blackmail has long been lost.

We will see. I hope you are correct.

[Woody]

Putin rarely talks about battlefield developments, so he must be very confident.

https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1684544542710661120

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1684535990604402688?s=20
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1684387770200883201?s=12
Man I don’t know who to believe, a known serial liar or visually confirmed losses lol

[jaichind]

Putin rarely talks about battlefield developments, so he must be very confident.

https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1684544542710661120

I am highly skeptical of any claims about losses on the other side.  This is true for Russia, Ukraine, and the collective West.

[Virginiá]

4. I disagree about the technology advantage. I find it really hard to argue the nation cranking out late Stalin era tanks has a technological advantage over the country employing leopards, challengers and soon abrams

IMO when saying "technology" it might be better to say they have a much deeper and wider reserve of military equipment than Ukraine. Not necessarily "better" but in some cases, "good enough." Russia might lack precision fires like Ukraine but it has significant more aviation, engineering equipment, electronic warfare complexes, many more air defenses (albeit not as effective as NATO gear), warships, constant cruise and ballistic missile production, etc.

The last - missile production - is one area where Ukraine is severely lacking. Storm Shadows help, but they come with strings, such as not using them on Russian soil. This isn't tenable for Ukraine. They have to be able to hit military bases, factories and fuel depots in Russia at some point. This is a key part of warfare. You can't expect a country, particularly as starved of resources as Ukraine, to just swat down attacks indefinitely. Eventually you have to go after the source. Also, I feel like NATO countries insisting on guarantees to not attack Russian soil now haven't quite thought about what the situation might be if, say, Ukraine did push Russia out of the east eventually but Russia simply refuses to stop fighting and militarizes their western border.  So the front line would be the international borders and yet Ukraine would be obligated to not use NATO weapons on anything on the Russian side despite them still launching the same level of attacks on Ukrainian positions.

[smoltchanov]

4. I disagree about the technology advantage. I find it really hard to argue the nation cranking out late Stalin era tanks has a technological advantage over the country employing leopards, challengers and soon abrams

IMO when saying "technology" it might be better to say they have a much deeper and wider reserve of military equipment than Ukraine. Not necessarily "better" but in some cases, "good enough." Russia might lack precision fires like Ukraine but it has significant more aviation, engineering equipment, electronic warfare complexes, many more air defenses (albeit not as effective as NATO gear), warships, constant cruise and ballistic missile production, etc.

The last - missile production - is one area where Ukraine is severely lacking. Storm Shadows help, but they come with strings, such as not using them on Russian soil. This isn't tenable for Ukraine. They have to be able to hit military bases, factories and fuel depots in Russia at some point. This is a key part of warfare. You can't expect a country, particularly as starved of resources as Ukraine, to just swat down attacks indefinitely. Eventually you have to go after the source. Also, I feel like NATO countries insisting on guarantees to not attack Russian soil now haven't quite thought about what the situation might be if, say, Ukraine did push Russia out of the east eventually but Russia simply refuses to stop fighting and militarizes their western border.  So the front line would be the international borders and yet Ukraine would be obligated to not use NATO weapons on anything on the Russian side despite them still launching the same level of attacks on Ukrainian positions.

It's exactly here where Russian "we will use nuclear weapns in such case" comes to play... And West obviously doesn't want to find out whether such words are real or pure blackmail... If Russia wouldn't be a rather strong (or at least - big) nuclear power - these restrictions wouldn't exist...

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

If Russian troops are forced out of eastern Ukraine, the war will take a completely different turn. And it will not be a continuation of the tactics of Hamas or V-2, and it unlikely will be nuclear missiles, the use of which for Russia is pure suicide, I am more suggesting a civil war in which the Kremlin will not be up Ukraine.

And this civil war will not be what many imagine, it will not about the independence of the oppressed ethnic groups of Russia, not about the mutiny of the illusory Kremlin doves and not about the rise of liberals, it will be just a battle between very radical ruscists and not very radical ruscists, but this will be enough so that Russia would leave Ukraine alone, and it would be possible to start negotiating the peaceful return of Crimea.

[smoltchanov]

If Russian troops are forced out of eastern Ukraine, the war will take a completely different turn. And it will not be a continuation of the tactics of Hamas or V-2, and it unlikely will be nuclear missiles, the use of which for Russia is pure suicide, I am more suggesting a civil war in which the Kremlin will not be up Ukraine.

And this civil war will not be what many imagine, it will not about the independence of the oppressed ethnic groups of Russia, not about the mutiny of the illusory Kremlin doves and not about the rise of liberals, it will be just a battle between very radical ruscists and not very radical ruscists, but this will be enough so that Russia would leave Ukraine alone, and it would be possible to start negotiating the peaceful return of Crimea.

Good if so. I am not sure, that "rationality level" of our "political leaders" is so high.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Good if so. I am not sure, that "rationality level" of our "political leaders" is so high.

It's unlikely that in a situation where the air defense of Moscow allows civilian quadrocopters to bomb the Kremlin roofs, even the most mad Kremlin ruscist will decide to counter nuclear missiles. If the Kremlin had a real possibility of a nuclear war, it would have used nuclear weapon already when the Ukrainians were kicking Russian troops out of the Kyiv region.

I said what I think about it, now I will ignore the nuclear blackmail narrative.

[smoltchanov]

Good if so. I am not sure, that "rationality level" of our "political leaders" is so high.

It's unlikely that in a situation where the air defense of Moscow allows civilian quadrocopters to bomb the Kremlin roofs, even the most mad Kremlin ruscist will decide to counter nuclear missiles. If the Kremlin had a real possibility of a nuclear war, it would have used nuclear weapon already when the Ukrainians were kicking Russian troops out of the Kyiv region.

I said what I think about it, now I will ignore the nuclear blackmail narrative.

I will say again: "we will see"....

[Hindsight was 2020]

Something is definitely going on, a lot of Ukrainian tg sources are in a good mood while Russian ones are in a doom/cope mood. From the rumblings and geoloc vids of shellings and fighting it seems Ukraine is successfully flanking Robotyne and have likely captured all if not most of Staromaiorske and Urozhaine
Some Twitter examples:
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1684547186560839680
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1684572188362539010?s=12
https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1684582805336997888?s=12

[jaichind]

https://www.nbcsports.com/olympics/news/ukraine-russia-olympics-neutral-athletes

"Ukraine fencing star Olga Kharlan disqualified from worlds after not shaking Russian’s hand"

[Lord Halifax]

https://www.nbcsports.com/olympics/news/ukraine-russia-olympics-neutral-athletes

"Ukraine fencing star Olga Kharlan disqualified from worlds after not shaking Russian’s hand"

ridiculous, FIE is a joke organization

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/7141

The word comes straight from the big man himself. Looks like Ukraine has taken back Staromaiorske.

Zelenskiy / Official
Наш Південь!
Наші хлопці!
Слава Україні!
 
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
____
 
Our South!
Our guys!
Glory to Ukraine!
 
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

video reposted on twitter:

http://www.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1684625810114727938

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1684468902598770689?s=12
Funny I thought Klishchiivka would be the first liberation vid to drop but it sounds like it will be Staromaiorske

https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/7141

The word comes straight from the big man himself. Looks like Ukraine has taken back Staromaiorske.

Zelenskiy / Official
Наш Південь!
Наші хлопці!
Слава Україні!
 
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
____
 
Our South!
Our guys!
Glory to Ukraine!
 
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

video reposted on twitter:

http://www.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1684625810114727938

Lol well what do ya know

[Storr]

The boys are back at it:

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1684522279957319683?s=20

[Storr]

Obviously Mariupol is still a significant distance away, but it's clear Ukraine's goal is to reach the sea:

https://twitter.com/MaxRTucker/status/1684489832779632641?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/26/former-us-official-shares-details-of-secret-track-15-diplomacy-with-moscow-a81972

"Former U.S. Official Shares Details of Secret ‘Track 1.5’ Diplomacy With Moscow"

It seems some factions of the USA foreign policy establishment are talking to the Russians to sell Ukraine down the river in return for some detachment of Russia from the PRC-Russia bloc.  Will not go anyway.  Too many people in the USA foreign policy establishment will not accept something like this.

[2952-0-0]

African Union calls on Russia to reinstate Ukrainian grain deal

https://www.politico.eu/article/african-union-calls-to-reinstate-the-ukrainian-grain-deal/

By pulling out of the grain export deal, Putin prevented Africans and others from freely buying Ukrainian grain. Then Putin offered to give free grain to some African countries. Africans have seen this many times, when a white European imperial power prevented them from freely trading for their needs, and then offered some crumbs as a political manipulation. The African Union has recognized this for what it is. Putin as a master strategist my behind.