Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1671507119458201607

For context, I think their entire fleet of helicopters (attack+support), is in the single digits numbers wise.

Yes - as the second Tweet speculates (I agree), they're probably transferring the last of their Soviet-era choppers but keeping the new Blackhawks.

[Storr]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-zelenskiy-says-progress-counteroffensive-111118534.html

"Ukraine's Zelenskiy says progress in counteroffensive 'slower than desired' - BBC"

Well, Zelensky now is on record in saying there is a counter-offensive.

Of course, really back in March, the Czech Prez (and former general and NATO COS) said that Ukraine has one chance to conduct a large counter-offensive

https://news.yahoo.com/czech-president-ukraine-only-one-224021072.html

"Czech President: Ukraine has only one attempt to conduct huge counteroffensive"

So now Zelensky is on record that there is a counter-offensive and this is the one chance as per the Czech Prez   

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1671473803413553156?s=20

[CumbrianLefty]

Almost certainly it is "slower than desired" yes.

But one notes the use of that phrase rather than "slower than *expected*".

There might not be very much in that, but who knows.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/WarInstitute/status/1671363561669685253?cxt=HHwWisDT_bqT8LEu...

Interesting and relatively succinct article that sheds some light on why it’s proving so difficult for either side to make any major territorial gains with large concentrations of troops.

[MasterJedi]

Finland government that took power is far-right, pushed by the higher anti-Russia sentiment that grew in Europe - but especially Finland - since last year. So this kind of rhetoric shouldn’t come off as surprising from Finland more specifically. I doubt non-extremist governments in rest of Europe would be so open to push this, if only because they know fully turning against the South - especially Africa - so openly is bad strategy as well.

I hope they do thar though, if only to become even more clear to more South countries how condescendingly they see them, as if they could “buy” a full policy alignment through basic humanitarian aid. If anything that motivates people even more to oppose the West instead of going to its side because they perceive it as open bullying to force them to fall in line. And makes more clear than ever that more economic independence from the West should be pursuit.

Africa is the place that Europeans feel the most entitled to push that kind of “higher moral ground savior but with our conditions” logic because of outdated white superiority notions that are always exposed whenever a more right-wing party comes to power there. And it’s funny how it’s pure fear driving these people to power - Finland obviously went so hardline to the right because of the impact of the Ukraine War for example into the Finnish and Eastern European mentality.

Global south sure is letting that “free” money hook slide further and further down their throat. Sooner or later Russia and China are going to call in the favors owed and they won’t be as nice as the West. Vassal status incoming, will need to eventually need to send your citizens to be their meat suits for their wars. Enjoy.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1671557216103432202?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/freudgreyskull/status/1671630745146896384?s=12

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1671558500051476480?s=20

[CanadianDemocrat]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1671507119458201607

Western helicopters like the Apache attack helicopter are just as important as fighter jets like the F-16 and F/A-18. The West only talks about training Ukrainian pilots on fighter jets, they should start training on helicopters as well. The Apaches would just devastate Russian vehicle convoys, tanks and helicopters.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1671643111779385347?s=20

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1671643111779385347?s=20

Thanks for posting!

I saw a similar story on one of the MSN feeds on my lunch break at work yesterday and meant to post.

From what I understand it looks like there are increasing concerns regarding "secondary sanctions" coming soon, if actions are not taken.

Honestly wouldn't surprise me if this was brought up at the Blinken visit to China the other day, although naturally the main focus of MSM articles had more to do with his statements regarding Taiwan.

[NOVA Green]

So "my mate" Phil recently recommended a thread, involving a conversation with "Karl", an Estonian Military analysist, regarding his opinions on the current state of the Ukrainian Counter-Offensive operations.

Just like some Atlas posters think regurgitating a handful of damaged Leopard Tanks and Bradley's are indicative of the current state of the UKR early Summer Offensive, there is a lot more subtext than the simple maps they post.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1671538891126448133?s=20

Here is the actual Twitter thread where there is a conversation with the Estonian Gentleman, so dig through the content for interesting findings (Bottom of Post).

Here are a few which stood out:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1671504588501860353?s=20

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1671504589558886400?s=20

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1671504598253686784?s=20

Link to Main Twitter thread Stub:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1671504581832974336?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile for any lurkers out there not familiar with the good works of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), here is a recent update from Eastern Kharkiv / Western Luhansk.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1671698135322591234?s=20

[2952-0-0]

I saw a similar story on one of the MSN feeds on my lunch break at work yesterday and meant to post.

From what I understand it looks like there are increasing concerns regarding "secondary sanctions" coming soon, if actions are not taken.

Honestly wouldn't surprise me if this was brought up at the Blinken visit to China the other day, although naturally the main focus of MSM articles had more to do with his statements regarding Taiwan.

...or, it could simply be the BoC's compliance department deciding on its own to reduce exposure. China's large commercial banks are mostly run as profit-seeking entities, even if they do take political direction. There are smaller, less well-known banks that specialize in riskier business, which could be sanctioned by the west with less consequence.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

As far as I understand, the introduced restriction applies only to transactions of Russian clients with European and US banks through Chinese banks. In this story, the PRC is turning its back not on Russia, as one might immediately think, but on the West. This step by the PRC is aimed at isolating Russia from the West and redirecting the Russian economy to the PRC.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As far as I understand, the introduced restriction applies only to transactions of Russian clients with European and US banks through Chinese banks. In this story, the PRC is turning its back not on Russia, as one might immediately think, but on the West. This step by the PRC is aimed at isolating Russia from the West and redirecting the Russian economy to the PRC.

I'd be almost shocked if China wasn't trying to do this. China has clear interest in shrinking the space in which Russia can operate.
Perhaps once can even say that the post-Soviet sphere might end up "partitioned" between Beijing and Washington. (All while China continues to have strong ties to Europe economically)

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1671760313820012545?s=12
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1671790854812450817?s=12

[jaichind]

https://www.iol.co.za/the-star/news/ukraine-advisor-rejects-africas-involvement-in-european-affairs-096a9236-86a1-493c-91f0-22f1711884cd

"Ukraine advisor rejects Africa’s involvement in European affairs"

Mykhailo Podolyak, said in an interview that Ramaphosa and his delegation of African leaders, had no business being in their country to negotiate a peace settlement between the two countries.

Podolyak is known as one of the advisers to the Chief of Staff of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

More "making friends and influencing people" in action

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1671760313820012545?s=12
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1671790854812450817?s=12

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1671795746994114563?s=20

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1671862325035380737?s=20

[Woody]

2 weeks since the counteroffensive started. Still the same 8 villages captured in total out of all this.

[Storr]

Believe it or not, this is actually not a Ford advertisement scheduled to debut during the first game of the NFL season:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1671679733698813955?s=20

[Woody]

CNN: Early stages of Ukrainian counteroffensive ‘not meeting expectations,’ Western officials tell CNN

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/22/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-western-assessment/index.html

CNN
 —
In its early phases, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials and a senior US military official tell CNN.

The counteroffensive is “not meeting expectations on any front,” one of the officials said.

According to the Western assessments, Russian lines of defense have been proving well-fortified, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to breach them. In addition, Russian forces have had success bogging down Ukrainian armor with missile attacks and mines and have been deploying air power more effectively.

Ukrainian forces are proving “vulnerable” to minefields and Russian forces “competent” in their defense, one of the Western officials said.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/22/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-western-assessment/index.html

"Early stages of Ukrainian counteroffensive ‘not meeting expectations,’ Western officials tell CNN"

[Red Velvet]

https://www.iol.co.za/the-star/news/ukraine-advisor-rejects-africas-involvement-in-european-affairs-096a9236-86a1-493c-91f0-22f1711884cd

"Ukraine advisor rejects Africa’s involvement in European affairs"

Mykhailo Podolyak, said in an interview that Ramaphosa and his delegation of African leaders, had no business being in their country to negotiate a peace settlement between the two countries.

Podolyak is known as one of the advisers to the Chief of Staff of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

More "making friends and influencing people" in action

It’s disgusting.

There was also this treatment of South Africa in Poland during their trip to Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/incontextmedia/status/1669767261349969922

[Lykaon]

[/quote]

It’s disgusting.

There was also this treatment of South Africa in Poland during their trip to Ukraine:

[/quote]

You know what else is disgusting? Selling weapons and taking the side of a country waging a genocidal war of agression. That’s what South Africa is doing. Poland knows damn well better than anyone what Russians are, and if that’s the side South Africa wants to take; then they should be treated as an enemy.

Global South Guy and “Economic statistic text-wall Guy” join Bakhmut Bob on my ignore list