Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Stranger in a strange land]

Чемодан-вокзал-Россия!

https://twitter.com/alinavictoriaw/status/1661745047279398915

Woodbury_IRL

While I don't believe this woman should be arrested or assaulted for posting her opinion, however vile it may be, you do have to wonder why this type of person chooses to live in the degenerate "Collective West" rather than in Holy Mother Russia.

[Woody]

Чемодан-вокзал-Россия!

https://twitter.com/alinavictoriaw/status/1661745047279398915

Woodbury_IRL

Eww. You think I would want to live in Washington, let alone near Seattle?

[Red Velvet]

How can India be in both BRICS and the Quad?

Why can’t they?

[Woody]

According to Mishustin, after a year of hostilities, Russia has so far issued passports to 1.5 million citizens of Ukraine in the regions it has annexed.

[Estrella]

Russia is, of course, calling this "terrorism". Oh my sides.

So are quite a lot of people with #FreeNavalny in their bio. If there's a lesson I learned from trawling trough Russian Twitter, it's that you should find yourself someone who loves you as much as Russian anti-war liberals love parroting Putin's propaganda.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

According to Mishustin, after a year of hostilities, Russia has so far issued passports to 1.5 million citizens of Ukraine in the regions it has annexed.

Did the Ukrainians want the passports?

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1663617353102372864

[NOVA Green]

Looks like the US GVT is looking for a deal with Turkey involving Sweden's admittance into NATO in exchange for an upgrade of Turkish F-16 fighter jets:

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday urged Turkey to take immediate action on Sweden’s bid to join NATO, saying there was no reason for further delay in bolstering the trans-Atlantic alliance at a time of profound tension with Russia.

Blinken, speaking to reporters in northern Sweden, pointed to the strength of Swedish armed forces and the country’s history of close partnership with NATO, even before it became a candidate for membership in the alliance last year. While NATO members cemented the accession of neighboring Finland this spring, Turkey and Hungary have so far declined to ratify Sweden’s membership.

Blinken and Kristersson spoke in the industrial city of Lulea, where the Swedish leader is hosting U.S. and E.U. officials for talks on trade and technology, a day after President Biden appeared to link Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership to a proposed American deal to upgrade Ankara’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets.

“He still wants to work on something on the F-16s,” Biden told reporters of a call he had with Erdogan to congratulate him on his reelection. “I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let’s get that done.”

Asked whether he expected action by Turkey on Sweden’s NATO bid, Biden said: “I raised that issue with him. We’re going to talk more about it next week.”

Blinken said the administration had not connected its advocacy for Sweden’s NATO accession to the potential agreement to sell Turkey dozens of F-16s and modernization kits for Ankara’s existing jets. But he acknowledged that some in the U.S. Congress had made an explicit link, suggesting they would only support the administration’s proposal if Turkey relents on Sweden.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/30/sweden-turkey-nato-blinken/

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1663617353102372864

Outwardly, she looks more like a Georgian Tamara than an American Tara.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Looks like the US GVT is looking for a deal with Turkey involving Sweden's admittance into NATO in exchange for an upgrade of Turkish F-16 fighter jets:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday urged Turkey to take immediate action on Sweden’s bid to join NATO, saying there was no reason for further delay in bolstering the trans-Atlantic alliance at a time of profound tension with Russia.

Blinken, speaking to reporters in northern Sweden, pointed to the strength of Swedish armed forces and the country’s history of close partnership with NATO, even before it became a candidate for membership in the alliance last year. While NATO members cemented the accession of neighboring Finland this spring, Turkey and Hungary have so far declined to ratify Sweden’s membership.

Blinken and Kristersson spoke in the industrial city of Lulea, where the Swedish leader is hosting U.S. and E.U. officials for talks on trade and technology, a day after President Biden appeared to link Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership to a proposed American deal to upgrade Ankara’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets.

“He still wants to work on something on the F-16s,” Biden told reporters of a call he had with Erdogan to congratulate him on his reelection. “I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let’s get that done.”

Asked whether he expected action by Turkey on Sweden’s NATO bid, Biden said: “I raised that issue with him. We’re going to talk more about it next week.”

Blinken said the administration had not connected its advocacy for Sweden’s NATO accession to the potential agreement to sell Turkey dozens of F-16s and modernization kits for Ankara’s existing jets. But he acknowledged that some in the U.S. Congress had made an explicit link, suggesting they would only support the administration’s proposal if Turkey relents on Sweden.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/30/sweden-turkey-nato-blinken/

Would it be better to admittance Sweden into NATO in exchange for Turkey's exclusion from NATO? It seems to me that the Turkish version of Putin, persecuting the Kurds, can only bring trouble to NATO.

[CanadianDemocrat]

Чемодан-вокзал-Россия!

https://twitter.com/alinavictoriaw/status/1661745047279398915

Woodbury_IRL

While I don't believe this woman should be arrested or assaulted for posting her opinion, however vile it may be, you do have to wonder why this type of person chooses to live in the degenerate "Collective West" rather than in Holy Mother Russia.

Russia is a poor, unequal, and backward country, where 20% of Russians don't have indoor plumbing. That's why so many Russian soldiers have been stealing toilets and washing machines. Stealing a washing machine and bringing it home is like winning the lottery for Russians.

[pppolitics]

Looks like the US GVT is looking for a deal with Turkey involving Sweden's admittance into NATO in exchange for an upgrade of Turkish F-16 fighter jets:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday urged Turkey to take immediate action on Sweden’s bid to join NATO, saying there was no reason for further delay in bolstering the trans-Atlantic alliance at a time of profound tension with Russia.

Blinken, speaking to reporters in northern Sweden, pointed to the strength of Swedish armed forces and the country’s history of close partnership with NATO, even before it became a candidate for membership in the alliance last year. While NATO members cemented the accession of neighboring Finland this spring, Turkey and Hungary have so far declined to ratify Sweden’s membership.

Blinken and Kristersson spoke in the industrial city of Lulea, where the Swedish leader is hosting U.S. and E.U. officials for talks on trade and technology, a day after President Biden appeared to link Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership to a proposed American deal to upgrade Ankara’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets.

“He still wants to work on something on the F-16s,” Biden told reporters of a call he had with Erdogan to congratulate him on his reelection. “I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let’s get that done.”

Asked whether he expected action by Turkey on Sweden’s NATO bid, Biden said: “I raised that issue with him. We’re going to talk more about it next week.”

Blinken said the administration had not connected its advocacy for Sweden’s NATO accession to the potential agreement to sell Turkey dozens of F-16s and modernization kits for Ankara’s existing jets. But he acknowledged that some in the U.S. Congress had made an explicit link, suggesting they would only support the administration’s proposal if Turkey relents on Sweden.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/30/sweden-turkey-nato-blinken/

Would it be better to admittance Sweden into NATO in exchange for Turkey's exclusion from NATO? It seems to me that the Turkish version of Putin, persecuting the Kurds, can only bring trouble to NATO.

Turkey controls the Dardanelles Strait, which is probably why NATO is willing to put up with Turkey.

[2952-0-0]

Looks like the US GVT is looking for a deal with Turkey involving Sweden's admittance into NATO in exchange for an upgrade of Turkish F-16 fighter jets:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday urged Turkey to take immediate action on Sweden’s bid to join NATO, saying there was no reason for further delay in bolstering the trans-Atlantic alliance at a time of profound tension with Russia.

Blinken, speaking to reporters in northern Sweden, pointed to the strength of Swedish armed forces and the country’s history of close partnership with NATO, even before it became a candidate for membership in the alliance last year. While NATO members cemented the accession of neighboring Finland this spring, Turkey and Hungary have so far declined to ratify Sweden’s membership.

Blinken and Kristersson spoke in the industrial city of Lulea, where the Swedish leader is hosting U.S. and E.U. officials for talks on trade and technology, a day after President Biden appeared to link Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership to a proposed American deal to upgrade Ankara’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets.

“He still wants to work on something on the F-16s,” Biden told reporters of a call he had with Erdogan to congratulate him on his reelection. “I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let’s get that done.”

Asked whether he expected action by Turkey on Sweden’s NATO bid, Biden said: “I raised that issue with him. We’re going to talk more about it next week.”

Blinken said the administration had not connected its advocacy for Sweden’s NATO accession to the potential agreement to sell Turkey dozens of F-16s and modernization kits for Ankara’s existing jets. But he acknowledged that some in the U.S. Congress had made an explicit link, suggesting they would only support the administration’s proposal if Turkey relents on Sweden.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/30/sweden-turkey-nato-blinken/

Would it be better to admittance Sweden into NATO in exchange for Turkey's exclusion from NATO? It seems to me that the Turkish version of Putin, persecuting the Kurds, can only bring trouble to NATO.

The problem with expelling a NATO member is that it opens up the alliance to blackmail. We could imagine a hostile foreign power demanding NATO to expel Estonia over some supposed provocation, and the large majority of other members succumbing to that pressure, which would effectively destroy the alliance. Hence, there should be no mechanism to expel a member.

[CumbrianLefty]

This place has been down for a while has it?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Turkey was admitted to NATO when it was a staunch and effective enemy of the USSR. But the USSR has not existed for a long time, and Turkey has rather warm relations with Putin's Russia.

God knows what gigantic leaks of military information this lack of a mechanism to expel a member leads to.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The political standards for being a NATO member have never been particularly strict compared to, say, EU membership. Turkey is a large and powerful country which aligns with the interests of NATO's most influential members more often than not, and this is easily enough for it to retain its position.

Most countries have been willing to sell out the Kurdish community since the borders were drawn and this isn't going to change anytime soon. Obama did it for the Iraqi government, a much less important/reliable US ally than Turkey, in the wake of a Kurdish independence referendum. As the saying goes, they have no friends but the mountains.

[rc18]

Both the US and UK governments are very pro-Turkey. Turkey is not going to be expelled any time soon no matter what it does.

[Torie]

If there is a sound reason to expel Turkey it will be expelled, and what the US wants will be what happens. Turkey not really making much of a contribution is not a good reason to expel. The alliance historically has had a lot of members that do essentially nothing. As mentioned above, sharing military secrets with enemies might be a good reason, or perhaps arming enemies. So far as I know, Turkey is not giving aid to Putin.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If there is a sound reason to expel Turkey it will be expelled, and what the US wants will be what happens. Turkey not really making much of a contribution is not a good reason to expel. The alliance historically has had a lot of members that do essentially nothing. As mentioned above, sharing military secrets with enemies might be a good reason, or perhaps arming enemies. So far as I know, Turkey is not giving aid to Putin.

The issue with Turkey is that it's both the biggest headache and one of the biggest contributors, both in material terms and its geographic location, which controls the the only direct connection between Asia and Europe not under Russian Control and blocks Russia from accessing the Mediterranean. All in all, it's much better to have Turkey causing problems inside the alliance rather than outside of it, and the same applies for Turkey: in addition to preventing openly hostile relations with the US, the UK, and to a lesser degree Germany and France, having Greece as a nominal ally rather than an open enemy is a little-discussed but important benefit.

[Torie]

If there is a sound reason to expel Turkey it will be expelled, and what the US wants will be what happens. Turkey not really making much of a contribution is not a good reason to expel. The alliance historically has had a lot of members that do essentially nothing. As mentioned above, sharing military secrets with enemies might be a good reason, or perhaps arming enemies. So far as I know, Turkey is not giving aid to Putin.

The issue with Turkey is that it's both the biggest headache and one of the biggest contributors, both in material terms and its geographic location, which controls the the only direct connection between Asia and Europe not under Russian Control and blocks Russia from accessing the Mediterranean. All in all, it's much better to have Turkey causing problems inside the alliance rather than outside of it, and the same applies for Turkey [Greece]: in addition to preventing openly hostile relations with the US, the UK, and to a lesser degree Germany and France, having Greece as a nominal ally rather than an open enemy is a little-discussed but important benefit.

I assume the above is what you meant, and it makes sense.

If Turkey ceases to have free elections (they are already not fair), and the Turkish government goes hard authoritarian, and effects atrocities on its ethnic and sexual minorities, then another decision point will be reached, but not now. I also read that the Turkish currency is close to a major collapse when Turkey runs out of reserve currency balances, and that might really undermine the government, with uncertain consequences to its governance. The election in that sense happened just in time for Erdogan. His propping up of the currency has to date drained Turkey of almost all of its hard currency reserves, and the dam is about to break.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Чемодан-вокзал-Россия!

https://twitter.com/alinavictoriaw/status/1661745047279398915

https://twitter.com/kozako01/status/1661852178804363267

[oldtimer]

Looks like the US GVT is looking for a deal with Turkey involving Sweden's admittance into NATO in exchange for an upgrade of Turkish F-16 fighter jets:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday urged Turkey to take immediate action on Sweden’s bid to join NATO, saying there was no reason for further delay in bolstering the trans-Atlantic alliance at a time of profound tension with Russia.

Blinken, speaking to reporters in northern Sweden, pointed to the strength of Swedish armed forces and the country’s history of close partnership with NATO, even before it became a candidate for membership in the alliance last year. While NATO members cemented the accession of neighboring Finland this spring, Turkey and Hungary have so far declined to ratify Sweden’s membership.

Blinken and Kristersson spoke in the industrial city of Lulea, where the Swedish leader is hosting U.S. and E.U. officials for talks on trade and technology, a day after President Biden appeared to link Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership to a proposed American deal to upgrade Ankara’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets.

“He still wants to work on something on the F-16s,” Biden told reporters of a call he had with Erdogan to congratulate him on his reelection. “I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let’s get that done.”

Asked whether he expected action by Turkey on Sweden’s NATO bid, Biden said: “I raised that issue with him. We’re going to talk more about it next week.”

Blinken said the administration had not connected its advocacy for Sweden’s NATO accession to the potential agreement to sell Turkey dozens of F-16s and modernization kits for Ankara’s existing jets. But he acknowledged that some in the U.S. Congress had made an explicit link, suggesting they would only support the administration’s proposal if Turkey relents on Sweden.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/30/sweden-turkey-nato-blinken/

Would it be better to admittance Sweden into NATO in exchange for Turkey's exclusion from NATO? It seems to me that the Turkish version of Putin, persecuting the Kurds, can only bring trouble to NATO.

Realistically:

1.Turkey is an independent great power and Sweden is not.
2.Turkey has a great geographical location and Sweden has not.
3.Europe has more islamic turkish voters that take orders from Turkey, than christian europeans in Turkey.

You see the inbalance, and why Turkey can constantly squeeze europe's balls.

In the whole of europe, America can perhaps only rely on Greece in a stand-off against Turkey, so it avoids tackling the question out of fear of a negative answer.

In short: Turkey is too strong.

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%      +3.0%          +1.3%
Feb          -2.1%        +3.4%       +2.1%      +4.1%      +3.0%         +1.1%
Mar          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%      +3.0%         +1.0%
April         -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
May          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.9%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
Feb          -2.5%       +0.4%        +0.8%       -0.7%      +5.2%        +1.2%
Mar          -1.7%       +0.5%        +1.0%       -0.5%      +5.3%        +1.1%
April         -1.3%       +0.6%        +1.1%       -0.2%      +5.6%        +1.0%
May         -0.6%        +0.6%        +1.1%       +0.1%     +5.6%        +1.0%

2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Feb       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Mar       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
April      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
May      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%

2022 GDP and CPI are mostly locked in.  There might be a chance 2022 Eurozone GDP might be adjusted downward but that is it.

Some recent non-GDP economic figures for PRC came in weaker than expected.  I expect both the USA and PRC 2023 GDP numbers to fall in the future.   Expectations of Russia continued to brighten at a fast rate and UK's 2023 prospects also improved but not as much.  Everyone else is status quo

Once you take into account that 2021 UK GDP growth got marked down by 0.6% and 2021 Russia GDP growth got marked up by 0.9% one can then construct a total cumulative 2022-2023 GDP loss based on current consensus/result vs 2022 Feb consensus as a percentage of 2021 GDP

(change from April 2023 calculation)
Russia      -6.7% (+0.7%)
Eurozone  -2.5% (same)
USA         -3.1% (same)
UK           -2.8% (+0.3%)
PRC          -1.8% (same)
Japan       -2.5% (same)

The total economic impact on Russia in 2022-2023 continues to improve, especially relative to the collective West.  PRC is the main marginal relative economic winner of this conflict once you take into account their own unforced error of continuing their COVID lockdowns in 2022.

[dead0man]

Чемодан-вокзал-Россия!

https://twitter.com/alinavictoriaw/status/1661745047279398915

we shouldn't get upset when people do this, we should thank them for letting us know they are horrible people.  Would her neighbors prefer to NOT know they have a monster living in their neighborhood?

[Sol]

Чемодан-вокзал-Россия!

https://twitter.com/alinavictoriaw/status/1661745047279398915

Where in Seattle? (obsessive about demographics)