Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1608860643767226369?cxt=HHwWgsDQze...

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Belarus says it downed Ukraine air defence missile https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64122632

Ridiculous. If I was the Ukrainian ambassador I’d tell the Belarusians to pound sand. Trying to act incredulous/mortified over the results of a conflict you’re doing everything in your power to facilitate. Barf.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Belarus says it downed Ukraine air defence missile https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64122632

Ridiculous. If I was the Ukrainian ambassador I’d tell the Belarusians to pound sand. Trying to act incredulous/mortified over the results of a conflict you’re doing everything in your power to facilitate. Barf.

Is Belarus trying to do a false flag to launch an invasion?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Belarus says it downed Ukraine air defence missile https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64122632

Ridiculous. If I was the Ukrainian ambassador I’d tell the Belarusians to pound sand. Trying to act incredulous/mortified over the results of a conflict you’re doing everything in your power to facilitate. Barf.

If they don’t like it, take it up with the Russians shooting cruise missiles at everything

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

As someone with an ancient Ukrainian ancestry, I can only say "F**k you Putin and his circle of war criminals." and hope this war will soon be over. Which is wishful thinking.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1609089132659089408
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1608875609991827457

“On New Year’s eve, I am addressing Russian citizens of conscription age. First of all, this concerns residents of large Russian cities. I know for a fact that you’ll have at least some choice for just about a week from now. In early January, the Russian authorities will shut the borders to men before declaring martial law and launching another wave of mobilization. The borders will also be closed in Belarus,” the head of the Defense Ministry said.

[Virginiá]

The general history of Regiment is said that it began as a volunteer unit composed of many awful people, and was later integrated into the army and Ukraine made efforts to disperse those people and depoliticize. Ukraine is extremely dependent on support from foreign countries (and thus sensitive to bad PR), so there is merit to the idea that they would actively seek to remedy this.

The counter-argument, as far as I can tell, is that this group of <= 2,500 people, mired in full blown conventional warfare, and taking heavy losses in Mariupol, is still somehow composed of the same far-right nationalists that gave it the bad image they started with.

I mean, honestly, I have no idea which is true. I feel like the official Ukrainian explanation could be an effort to paper over that unsightly problem, but I doubt it is completely without merit. But for the people saying it's basically 100% Nazis and is scum, I mean, after all this war, I just doubt that not only those same people all survived, but if they didn't, they were replaced with equally bigoted soldiers. I'd prefer someone to actually back up this assertion with some facts.

I don't think anyone here actually knows what kind of soldiers staff that regiment right now, to be honest. So this argument is going nowhere.

[CumbrianLefty]

Basically, aren't quite a lot of the "hardcore" Azovists either dead or otherwise out of action?

[Virginiá]

Basically, aren't quite a lot of the "hardcore" Azovists either dead or otherwise out of action?

Considering those people date back to around 2014, and Ukraine has been in various states of regional conflict since, and then factoring into the large scale warfare since February 2022 and all that happened (including what we know about Azov/Mariupol), yeah, that is a fair assumption. Whoever was left has probably been marginalized considering the military has been absolutely inundated with draftees and volunteers.

I'll just clarify ahead of time that I don't think there are no extremists, I just think that due to the realities of large scale conventional warfare, whatever the Azov Regiment was, is no longer, and what remains has been massively diluted due to widespread mobilization in Ukraine.

[Torie]

Basically, aren't quite a lot of the "hardcore" Azovists either dead or otherwise out of action?

Considering those people date back to around 2014, and Ukraine has been in various states of regional conflict since, and then factoring into the large scale warfare since February 2022 and all that happened (including what we know about Azov/Mariupol), yeah, that is a fair assumption. Whoever was left has probably been marginalized considering the military has been absolutely inundated with draftees and volunteers.

I'll just clarify ahead of time that I don't think there are no extremists, I just think that due to the realities of large scale conventional warfare, whatever the Azov Regiment was, is no longer, and what remains has been massively diluted due to widespread mobilization in Ukraine.

Perhaps an unfair question, but given your relative expertise compared to most of the rest of us, or at least me, if Putin does play the  full mobilization and closes the borders to exiting fit males, what if any card should the allies play back? It would seem to me that Ukraine is going to need to repel a mass wave of hostile bodies (at some point in the next few months presumably with some semblance or training if not totally adequate equipment) and somehow better secure its skies from destructive ordinance falling down on it, making so  much of it within range inhospitable to human life. At this point, it seems as if Ukraine liberating real estate is just a precursor to its destruction. At some point that story line needs to hit the cutting room floor.

[Woody]

Second day of missile barrage by Russia:

https://twitter.com/MargoGontar/status/1609195572166107136
https://twitter.com/tagabhishek/status/1609191989806768131
https://twitter.com/AarianNewsX/status/1609163287614324736
https://twitter.com/fy_rwsya/status/1609164962131320832

[Torie]

As it becomes increasingly clear that the clearest path to ending the war is Russia's inability to further finance it (Iran won't be selling Russia drones on credit presumably), it seems appropriate to focus on the Russian economy going forward. This article I find to be quite interesting. Russia will be forced next year to close its borders to emigration, and will move towards  an economic autarky. More and more the economy will be fueled by government spending, with about a third of the spending devoted to war and security. Europe by the end of next year should complete its severance from the Russian economy. Russia has a liquid piggy bank of about $120 billion or so. That should be exhausted in about 3 years, at which point it's insolvency time. The goal should be hasten the date of Russia going into the tank. How can thw West cost it more money, and truncate its revenues, more expeditiously?

At some point during this time line, Putin might snap, thereby shortening the time line.

In the meantime, it seems clear that Putin is blowing Xi for all he's worth to bail him out. Xi does not strike me as that kind of angel of mercy. He seems more like Dracula to me.

https://ridl.io/russia-2023-the-year-of-no-return/

[Virginiá]

Perhaps an unfair question, but given your relative expertise compared to most of the rest of us, or at least me, if Putin does play the  full mobilization and closes the borders to exiting fit males, what if any card should the allies play back? It would seem to me that Ukraine is going to need to repel a mass wave of hostile bodies (at some point in the next few months presumably with some semblance or training if not totally adequate equipment) and somehow better secure its skies from destructive ordinance falling down on it, making so  much of it within range inhospitable to human life. At this point, it seems as if Ukraine liberating real estate is just a precursor to its destruction. At some point that story line needs to hit the cutting room floor.

There aren't many cards left to play, and personally I do believe that is why we keep seeing negotiations come up more and more. Biden can send Bradleys, but honestly, how many can Ukraine expect? The US hasn't even sent 1,000 M113s (obsolete thinly armored APCs) and we have been dumping those where ever we can for years now. If this war escalates that far, Ukraine can probably kill a lot more Russians but it's going to accelerate their own equipment losses as well, and NATO is not prepared to match those losses at the scale they are happening. The US is the only country that can conceivably do that on demand, and we have our own readiness requirements and practical concerns that limit what we would send. For example, sure, we can scare up more Soviet-era tanks like the 90 (+30) they bought to refit for Ukraine, but those take time to refurbish - probably 6-7 months to complete that order, at least. ~2 years to get all 6 additional NASAMS batteries, aside from whatever the US can finagle out of the Middle East (possibly a couple systems or so). My point is that if Ukraine loses some of these things, they can't be quickly replaced, and that hurts Ukraine, because they don't have the industrial capacity that Russia has (even under sanctions).

I do believe the ammunition issue will start to ease as time goes on and more production comes online, but simply blowing out the enemy with artillery and long range strikes is not enough. You're supposed to follow that up with strategic maneuvers using armor and close air support. Ukraine is really lacking in both departments and the longer this goes on, the better Russia fortifies the front lines, the more people they draft, and the less weak spots Ukraine will be able to find on the front. In other words, the longer this goes on, the less and less likely we are to see another Kharkiv blitz where Russia loses territory en masse. This is becoming an industrial war of attrition, and Ukraine doesn't have much of a war industry. Not saying Russia is in a great position either, their position is pretty dire in the grand scheme of things tbh, but they are not nearly as dependent on massive foreign military aid like Ukraine is and seem to be willing to endure horrible losses and painful economic costs so far.

The only realistic cards we have left to play are long range strike systems, such as cruise missiles, ATACMS, etc.  And it's hard to see anyone giving Ukraine cruise missiles. ATACMS even seems truly off the table absent something like WMD usage. Maybe Abrams tanks if you believe the US is willing to invest significantly in building up the support and sustainment capacity Ukraine needs to field those tanks. So more heavy trailer trucks, more fuel trucks, more recovery vehicles, more fuel, more training, and all of it happening on a very accelerated time table. But as for increased weapons - Europe doesn't have a lot more to give now without gutting their own militaries, and the US, as said earlier, has other concerns. We could see hundreds and hundreds more MRAPs, Humvees, M113s, and other systems like the Bradleys, but there are limits starting to show here and Ukraine is going to have to get crafty and strategic in how it fights so they can avoid sinking into a long-winded war of attrition.

[Torrain]

Surreal bit of theatre from Moscow tonight.

Putin has given a New Years address, in an odd format that crops his hands out of the shot, coughing through a bunch of his lines.
https://mobile.twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1609235399628431362
Also, to add to the weirdness, the “soldiers” behind him appear to be regularly-used actors or FSB agents who pitch up to opening ceremonies and speeches.
https://mobile.twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1609183768979316738
I’m not saying Putin is scared to stand next to an serving Russian soldier, I’m just saying that’s what the optics strongly indicate…

[Torie]

Perhaps an unfair question, but given your relative expertise compared to most of the rest of us, or at least me, if Putin does play the  full mobilization and closes the borders to exiting fit males, what if any card should the allies play back? It would seem to me that Ukraine is going to need to repel a mass wave of hostile bodies (at some point in the next few months presumably with some semblance or training if not totally adequate equipment) and somehow better secure its skies from destructive ordinance falling down on it, making so  much of it within range inhospitable to human life. At this point, it seems as if Ukraine liberating real estate is just a precursor to its destruction. At some point that story line needs to hit the cutting room floor.

There aren't many cards left to play, and personally I do believe that is why we keep seeing negotiations come up more and more. Biden can send Bradleys, but honestly, how many can Ukraine expect? The US hasn't even sent 1,000 M113s (obsolete thinly armored APCs) and we have been dumping those where ever we can for years now. If this war escalates that far, Ukraine can probably kill a lot more Russians but it's going to accelerate their own equipment losses as well, and NATO is not prepared to match those losses at the scale they are happening. The US is the only country that can conceivably do that on demand, and we have our own readiness requirements and practical concerns that limit what we would send. For example, sure, we can scare up more Soviet-era tanks like the 90 (+30) they bought to refit for Ukraine, but those take time to refurbish - probably 6-7 months to complete that order, at least. ~2 years to get all 6 additional NASAMS batteries, aside from whatever the US can finagle out of the Middle East (possibly a couple systems or so). My point is that if Ukraine loses some of these things, they can't be quickly replaced, and that hurts Ukraine, because they don't have the industrial capacity that Russia has (even under sanctions).

I do believe the ammunition issue will start to ease as time goes on and more production comes online, but simply blowing out the enemy with artillery and long range strikes is not enough. You're supposed to follow that up with strategic maneuvers using armor and close air support. Ukraine is really lacking in both departments and the longer this goes on, the better Russia fortifies the front lines, the more people they draft, and the less weak spots Ukraine will be able to find on the front. In other words, the longer this goes on, the less and less likely we are to see another Kharkiv blitz where Russia loses territory en masse. This is becoming an industrial war of attrition, and Ukraine doesn't have much of a war industry. Not saying Russia is in a great position either, their position is not great either tbh, but they are not as dependent on massive foreign military aid like Ukraine is and seem to be willing to endure horrible losses and painful economic costs so far.

The only realistic cards we have left to play are long range strike systems, such as cruise missiles, ATACMS, etc.  And it's hard to see anyone giving Ukraine cruise missiles. ATACMS even seems truly off the table absent something like WMD usage. Maybe Abrams tanks if you believe the US is willing to invest significantly in building up the support and sustainment capacity Ukraine needs to field those tanks. So more heavy trailer trucks, more fuel trucks, more recovery vehicles, more fuel, more training, and all of it happening on a very accelerated time table. But as for increased weapons - Europe doesn't have a lot more to give now without gutting their own militaries and the US, as said earlier, has other concerns. We could see hundreds and hundreds more MRAPs, Humvees, M113s, and other systems like the Bradleys, but there are limits starting to show here and Ukraine is going to have to get crafty and strategic in how it fights so they can avoid sinking into a long-winded war of attrition.

That is all very depressing. What are the prospects of better protecting Ukraine's civilian skies, so that what is otherwise a stalemate can be effected that does not terrorize and freeze and drive out the civiian population while Russia is reduced over time to an autarky headed to insolvency who sells some oil on the cheap to India and China (maybe India at least could be persuaded to stop buying it).

That seems to be what is in play here. Time is not on Russia's side when it comes to financing the war, so it tries to move things along by making living in Ukraine a living and dangerous hell.

WAPO has a headline today that is behind a paywall (that unlike the NYT I don't pay to surmount) that the Russian elites are very unhappy these days. Apparently autarky is just not their cup of tea.

[Virginiá]

That is all very depressing. What are the prospects of better protecting Ukraine's civilian skies, so that what is otherwise a stalemate can be effected that does not terrorize and freeze and drive out the civiian population while Russia is reduced over time to an autarky headed to insolvency who sells some oil on the cheap to India and China (maybe India at least could be persuaded to stop buying it).

That seems to be what is in play here. Time is not on Russia's side when it comes to financing the war, so it tries to move things along by making living in Ukraine a living and dangerous hell.

WAPO has a headline today that is behind a paywall (that unlike the NYT I don't pay to surmount) that the Russian elites are very unhappy these days. Apparently autarky is just not their cup of tea.

I do think one of the best chances for Ukraine to have a total victory is the collapse of the Putin regime. It's not impossible, and it gets more plausible every wave of mobilization they do, which will continue to destabilize Russian society. The longer this grinds on, the more Russia's sanctions and general isolation saps support from the ruling class, and the more they will plot against him. We're already seeing alternate centers of power emerge, such as Prigozhin. War can and has caused governments to fall in the past, even if the state itself didn't face an existential threat because of it. Russia has been through this before. I can only hope we get so lucky again, for Ukraine's sake.

[Hindsight was 2020]

That is all very depressing. What are the prospects of better protecting Ukraine's civilian skies, so that what is otherwise a stalemate can be effected that does not terrorize and freeze and drive out the civiian population while Russia is reduced over time to an autarky headed to insolvency who sells some oil on the cheap to India and China (maybe India at least could be persuaded to stop buying it).

That seems to be what is in play here. Time is not on Russia's side when it comes to financing the war, so it tries to move things along by making living in Ukraine a living and dangerous hell.

WAPO has a headline today that is behind a paywall (that unlike the NYT I don't pay to surmount) that the Russian elites are very unhappy these days. Apparently autarky is just not their cup of tea.

I do think one of the best chances for Ukraine to have a total victory is the collapse of the Putin regime. It's not impossible, and it gets more plausible every wave of mobilization they do, which will continue to destabilize Russian society. The longer this grinds on, the more Russia's sanctions and general isolation saps support from the ruling class, and the more they will plot against him. We're already seeing alternate centers of power emerge, such as Prigozhin. War can and has caused governments to fall in the past, even if the state itself didn't face an existential threat because of it. Russia has been through this before. I can only hope we get so lucky again, for Ukraine's sake.

A key for Ukraine will also be retaking Svatove as Russian entire supply route for the their whole front and especially the north runs through the train system that runs out of Svatove. Retaking that area is going to f over Russia logistics even for the new mobilized troops

[Virginiá]

A key for Ukraine will also be retaking Svatove as Russian entire supply route for the their whole front and especially the north runs through the train system that runs out of Svatove. Retaking that area is going to f over Russia logistics even for the new mobilized troops

Not hard to see them recapturing all of Northern Luhansk in the first half of next year, tbh. After Svatove, the last major hub is Starobilsk, quite a ways in, after which, GLOCs and supplies must run south from Rostov Oblast in Russia. I do get worried thinking about the time and blood it will take, which depends on the quality of cannon fodder and the Russian industry's ability to equip them to die less quickly. I get nervous thinking about the southern campaign and Ukraine pushing past 2014-15 borders in Northern Donbas - for the reasons I ranted about above.

Easily part of a range of scenarios, and not at odds necessarily with a broader stalemate later on, either, but also a likely sign of further Russian collapses, should they happen. More large territory losses like that will further deteriorate morale and support among regime stakeholders.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A key for Ukraine will also be retaking Svatove as Russian entire supply route for the their whole front and especially the north runs through the train system that runs out of Svatove. Retaking that area is going to f over Russia logistics even for the new mobilized troops

Not hard to see them recapturing all of Northern Luhansk in the first half of next year, tbh. After Svatove, the last major hub is Starobilsk, quite a ways in, after which, GLOCs and supplies must run south from Rostov Oblast in Russia. I do get worried thinking about the time and blood it will take, which depends on the quality of cannon fodder and the Russian industry's ability to equip them to die less quickly. I get nervous thinking about the southern campaign and Ukraine pushing past 2014-15 borders in Northern Donbas - for the reasons I ranted about above.

Easily part of a range of scenarios, and not at odds necessarily with a broader stalemate later on, either, but also a likely sign of further Russian collapses, should they happen. More large territory losses like that will further deteriorate morale and support among regime stakeholders.

An interesting wild card in all of this is going to be Putin’s reaction to Bakmut. The whole reason Putin to everyone shock actually abandoned Kherson and didn’t sacrifice 20,000+ troops in a vain effort to defend it was he was promised by his generals they would use the Kherson resources to renew offense in Donbas with Bakmut being the first dominion. But with most competent sources on the ground saying Bakmut is all but over and a Ukrainian win, I wonder if a frustrated Putin does something military unwise like actually attack Kyiv again or Kharkiv or even Kherson and end up dealing his military a crippling blow as a result

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A key for Ukraine will also be retaking Svatove as Russian entire supply route for the their whole front and especially the north runs through the train system that runs out of Svatove. Retaking that area is going to f over Russia logistics even for the new mobilized troops

Not hard to see them recapturing all of Northern Luhansk in the first half of next year, tbh. After Svatove, the last major hub is Starobilsk, quite a ways in, after which, GLOCs and supplies must run south from Rostov Oblast in Russia. I do get worried thinking about the time and blood it will take, which depends on the quality of cannon fodder and the Russian industry's ability to equip them to die less quickly. I get nervous thinking about the southern campaign and Ukraine pushing past 2014-15 borders in Northern Donbas - for the reasons I ranted about above.

Easily part of a range of scenarios, and not at odds necessarily with a broader stalemate later on, either, but also a likely sign of further Russian collapses, should they happen. More large territory losses like that will further deteriorate morale and support among regime stakeholders.

An interesting wild card in all of this is going to be Putin’s reaction to Bakmut. The whole reason Putin to everyone shock actually abandoned Kherson and didn’t sacrifice 20,000+ troops in a vain effort to defend it was he was promised by his generals they would use the Kherson resources to renew offense in Donbas with Bakmut being the first dominion. But with most competent sources on the ground saying Bakmut is all but over and a Ukrainian win, I wonder if a frustrated Putin does something military unwise like actually attack Kyiv again or Kharkiv or even Kherson and end up dealing his military a crippling blow as a result

At this point, Putin attacking Kiev again feels like something he couldn't do even if he wanted to, no? Like, Ukrainian defenses look way better than they did in the start of the war.

[Woody]

Dorozhnyanka is probably still under UA control:

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1609350249935405058?cxt=HHwWhICw6dH...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1609539414312591360

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1609235262944444426

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1609641215464456197?s=20&t=DAu_kXN8BxRr...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1609641220032139267?s=20&t=DAu_kXN8BxRr...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1609641225212284928?s=20&t=DAu_kXN8BxRr...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1609641215464456197?s=20&t=DAu_kXN8BxRr...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1609641220032139267?s=20&t=DAu_kXN8BxRr...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1609641225212284928?s=20&t=DAu_kXN8BxRr...

Ukraine may look small on a map, but that is not reason to underestimate it. If Ukraine is making these kinds of strides, then it would be yet another hurdle for Russia to overcome if it wants to get out of the hole it is currently in.
Taking aside any moral considerations, if Russian leaders act from a point of arrogance and overconfidence even after their assumptions prove to be incorrect, they deserve to lose, full stop. It's not like it's happened before, look at 1904-1905.