Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Alben Barkley]

Iran seems to be limiting the range of ballistic missiles they will provide Russia, but 300km will still allow Russia to hit much of Ukraine if they stage the launchers near the border / LOC in Belarus, and Kherson / Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1602349277321334788

It seems plausible and would still allow the missiles to hit the vast majority of the country, assuming Russia was incapable of removing the restrictions. Software restrictions would seem the simplest to introduce, but who's to say you can't jailbreak a missile?

Still, I'd take Israeli govt. claims with more than a few grains of salt. They are aware of their own stance and history in this conflict and the benefits of obscuring these. Israeli drones have also proven quite useful to Russia.

I cannot find a single source on Israeli drones being used by Russia against Ukraine, but plenty about Iranian drones used for the same purpose.

[NOVA Green]

Iran seems to be limiting the range of ballistic missiles they will provide Russia, but 300km will still allow Russia to hit much of Ukraine if they stage the launchers near the border / LOC in Belarus, and Kherson / Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1602349277321334788

Thinking out loud here... could just be that Iran might be conserving some of their hardware just in case there are attempts at "Regime Change" in Iran supported by external forces, while the regime is currently facing massive domestic unrest, to the point not seen since the Iranian Revolution of '78-'79?

Let's face it, where will Iran be able to obtain external weapons systems from at this point, since Russia appears to be heavily maxed out with their Invasion, Occupation, and Colonization of Ukraine 2.0.?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So I heard that the initial reason the US and other NATO countries were reluctant to give Ukraine some of the most high-tech equipment and weaponry is they were concerned about if any of it was captured Russia could then reverse-engineer it and create their own versions.

Now that's actually not much of a concern, not only because Russia is so bad at capturing anything but because they can't even maintain the technology and weaponry they have now. Hence more high tech will be delivered.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Iran seems to be limiting the range of ballistic missiles they will provide Russia, but 300km will still allow Russia to hit much of Ukraine if they stage the launchers near the border / LOC in Belarus, and Kherson / Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1602349277321334788

I hope with the anti Iran hawk Netanyahu back in power, Israel will send Ukraine it's advanced anti-aircraft systems. Israel bombed a Iranian drone manufacturing plant in Syria a few months ago.

There’s little hard evidence indicating that the alleged drone factory strike in Syria was linked to the supply of Iranian drones to Russia. If anything, Netanyahu’s administration will be friendlier to Russia than the last one (although the difference may not be huge). Russia’s removal of a Syria-based S-300 battery for its war in Ukraine has helped Israel’s bombing campaigns there.

Israel’s Iran/Russia stance will likely remain as follows:
- They will continue to urge Western powers to act against Iran in ways that antagonise it
- They will continue to defend their “neutrality” in Ukraine on the grounds that antagonising Russia could lead to it helping Iran. This includes refusal to send small arms ammunition which Ukraine already bought, and vetoing any foreign export of Israeli-made weapons

If they’re feeling especially confident, they’ll use the supply of Russian jets as a rallying cry against Iran.

Western countries have only our governments to blame: our leaders will never openly deduce the fairly obvious hypocrisy. Fool me twice (or fifty times), shame on me.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Iran seems to be limiting the range of ballistic missiles they will provide Russia, but 300km will still allow Russia to hit much of Ukraine if they stage the launchers near the border / LOC in Belarus, and Kherson / Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1602349277321334788

Thinking out loud here... could just be that Iran might be conserving some of their hardware just in case there are attempts at "Regime Change" in Iran supported by external forces, while the regime is currently facing massive domestic unrest, to the point not seen since the Iranian Revolution of '78-'79?

Let's face it, where will Iran be able to obtain external weapons systems from at this point, since Russia appears to be heavily maxed out with their Invasion, Occupation, and Colonization of Ukraine 2.0.?

Possibly, but a missile restricted to 300km range might not be much easier to produce than one with 700km range, especially if the restriction is a mere software modification. Iran is reportedly going to receive Su-35 fighter jets from Russia in exchange - and this is one instance where Russia can deliver quickly. They have 24 Su-35s surplus after Egypt cancelled their own aircraft order, and (I suspect) too few pilots to make exceptionally good use of these jets in the war. These can be transferred to Iran.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Iran seems to be limiting the range of ballistic missiles they will provide Russia, but 300km will still allow Russia to hit much of Ukraine if they stage the launchers near the border / LOC in Belarus, and Kherson / Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1602349277321334788

It seems plausible and would still allow the missiles to hit the vast majority of the country, assuming Russia was incapable of removing the restrictions. Software restrictions would seem the simplest to introduce, but who's to say you can't jailbreak a missile?

Still, I'd take Israeli govt. claims with more than a few grains of salt. They are aware of their own stance and history in this conflict and the benefits of obscuring these. Israeli drones have also proven quite useful to Russia.

I cannot find a single source on Israeli drones being used by Russia against Ukraine, but plenty about Iranian drones used for the same purpose.

Then you haven’t been reading enough. From 2009 through 2018, Israeli supplied Russia with the military IAI searcher drone, including a license and the technical means for Russia to localise and upgrade production of the drone as the Forpost. Russia’s underdeveloped UAV industry used lessons from this to quickly develop their contemporary drone fleet and they even made an armed combat variant of the Israeli drone known as the Forpost-R. All three models have featured in the war in Ukraine.

By contrast, they cancelled their drone sale to Ukraine thanks to pressure from Russia. They argued this was to discourage sales of Russian armaments to Iran.

[Frodo]

So I heard that the initial reason the US and other NATO countries were reluctant to give Ukraine some of the most high-tech equipment and weaponry is they were concerned about if any of it was captured Russia could then reverse-engineer it and create their own versions.

Now that's actually not much of a concern, not only because Russia is so bad at capturing anything but because they can't even maintain the technology and weaponry they have now. Hence more high tech will be delivered.

Yeah, I say give those older Reaper drones to Ukraine.  At this point, I care more about Ukraine winning this war (more) quickly, getting back its lost territory, and being in a position to dictate terms during peace negotiations than I do about Russia (and other rogue nations) making use of these drones that they manage to shoot down.  It's worth the risk.   

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1602395299145711648?s=20&t=ZrFrWHHl...

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1601732370432135169?s=20&t=KD0Vs_TxBza...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1602395299145711648?s=20&t=ZrFrWHHl...

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1601732370432135169?s=20&t=KD0Vs_TxBza...

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1602436810583736321
It’s seems likely Ukraine is going to get Svatove and Kreminna either at Christmas time or a little after. Which works for them as once those two fall it will completely f**k up Russia’s supply lines right as the worst parts of winter set in

[NOVA Green]

Iran seems to be limiting the range of ballistic missiles they will provide Russia, but 300km will still allow Russia to hit much of Ukraine if they stage the launchers near the border / LOC in Belarus, and Kherson / Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1602349277321334788

Thinking out loud here... could just be that Iran might be conserving some of their hardware just in case there are attempts at "Regime Change" in Iran supported by external forces, while the regime is currently facing massive domestic unrest, to the point not seen since the Iranian Revolution of '78-'79?

Let's face it, where will Iran be able to obtain external weapons systems from at this point, since Russia appears to be heavily maxed out with their Invasion, Occupation, and Colonization of Ukraine 2.0.?

Possibly, but a missile restricted to 300km range might not be much easier to produce than one with 700km range, especially if the restriction is a mere software modification. Iran is reportedly going to receive Su-35 fighter jets from Russia in exchange - and this is one instance where Russia can deliver quickly. They have 24 Su-35s surplus after Egypt cancelled their own aircraft order, and (I suspect) too few pilots to make exceptionally good use of these jets in the war. These can be transferred to Iran.

Still, Iran doesn't really have any "friends" in the region these days, not even among the Shii'te Arabs of Southern Iraq, especially with Sadr movement protests over the past couple years against the Pro-Iranian militias from the majority ruling parties.

Iran is now involved in proxy wars against Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Kingdoms in Yemen.

Let's face it, a handful of Russian SU-35's likely won't perform well against much more modern aircraft supplied to the Gulf Kingdoms.

*IF* NATO plus Israel choose to undertake massive airstrikes against Iran as the Popular Uprising continues to grow very much doubt that a handful of outdated Russian Jets will even be able to make it off the runways.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile for those who continue to post Russian Propaganda about minor battlefield advances....

Perspective, perspective, perspective...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1602052387572785153?s=20&t=PeZTB9yp6vxGEo...

[NOVA Green]

Naturally another reason to recognize why Serbia should not be in any way shape or form associated with the EU, while the population still continues to support Ethno-Fascist and Authoritarian regimes...

https://twitter.com/leventkemaI/status/1602240531085524995?s=20&t=PeZTB9yp6v...

[NOVA Green]

Phillip's got a pretty good thread scene going on, but you will need to subscribe.

Here's his take from Yesterday...

On the battlefield of Ukraine little changed this last week. There were some tiny changes in the lines around Bakhmut, but once again the Russians are really not close to taking the city. There were also some small changes in Ukraine’s favor in the northeast near Svatove, but again these alterations were pretty small. This has basically been the position since the Russians were forced to pull back across the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast in October.

In terms of the change of the line, the most important thing to look for in the coming weeks is whether Ukraine begins a concerted effort anywhere. That will probably not involve some mass armor assault at first, for we have still not had a single armored breakthrough against a well defended position anytime in this war. The tank as the leader of a breakthrough against opposition has not happened in any meaningful way, and is unlikely to happen in the short term as the Russians have a much shorter line to defend.

Instead, what is most likely to occur is a more concerted wasting campaign of the kind we saw in Kherson. It’s a methodical campaign of trying to waste Russian forces before risking an attack. When it first started happening around Kherson, I termed it a form of accelerated attrition.

I think we will probably see something similar to this again. Only it could take even more time, as the Ukrainians don’t have the Dnipro helping them cut off Russian supplies. That being said, as long as their intelligence remains as good as it seems to be, they should be able to execute something similar. Pay attention to increases in fire (on both sides) on certain parts of the line. Noticed that @DefMon3 recorded an increase in Russian fire in the centre of the line yesterday. As he says, this could be unimportant, but if it lasts for a few days, could indicate a pick up of activity in this area.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-6

[Virginiá]

It seems plausible and would still allow the missiles to hit the vast majority of the country, assuming Russia was incapable of removing the restrictions. Software restrictions would seem the simplest to introduce, but who's to say you can't jailbreak a missile?

I think when they say Iran wants to 'limit' the range, they mean limit by only sending missiles with a max range of 300km or less, such as the Fateh-110. The article states the Zolfaghar was ruled out. If they do modify it to be less than 300km, Russia working around that might not gain them too much more range.

Article: https://www.axios.com/2022/12/12/ukraine-war-russia-missiles-iran-limit

Still, I'd take Israeli govt. claims with more than a few grains of salt. They are aware of their own stance and history in this conflict and the benefits of obscuring these. Israeli drones have also proven quite useful to Russia.

Yeah, that's fair, still seemed worth forwarding along if only for the record though.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/AlexRaptor94/status/1602628815930417152

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Even though I don't post/check here daily, like it seems we all were doing when the conflict first started, and I don't see an issue with that because we ultimately have to continue living our lives even in the midst of grave tragedies such as this, I do check it every few days and will always continue to show solidarity with the Ukrainian people in the ways I can and care immensely for their struggle.

Thank you to NOVA, Virginia, Storr and all the other regular contributors to this thread, keeping us updated and abreast of new developments ~ Your efforts are appreciated!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If true, I'm half-inclined to believe this is a vindication of the Russian missile strategy.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1602716394034008065
The Patriot missile is criminally overpriced and one of the very few weapons which could make helping Ukraine a financial challenge for the USA, especially if it is spent on Shahed drones (one of the aims of the bombing campaign is to make the war of attrition costlier for Ukraine's backers). The money spent on them would expand Ukrainian defence capabilities, but not nearly to the same extent that it would if spent on regular heavy weapons, offensive missiles for Ukraine or aircraft. Money isn't always completely transferable in this way, but it doesn't matter because the Patriot is so horribly expensive. Certain Russian/Iranian missiles may be cheaper on a per-shot basis, even disregarding the multi-billion battery.

What is achieved by sending them? Well, there's one benefit: they will allow Ukraine to weather the missile storm a little better without expanding their offensive capabilities. The Biden administration's current approach to aid is to manage attrition - and this comes at much greater cost (human and financial) than enabling Ukraine to go on the offensive again.

Edit: to give some perspective - in direct military aid, the US says has given Ukraine about $19bn since the 2022 conflict began (it overvalues this aid for various reasons, but I'll buy into the claim for the sake of argument).

A single Patriot battery covers 150km and costs about a billion dollars. Each missile costs several million and oftentimes, several are launched to intercept a single target. This is "ideal" in only a few situations: against fighter jets, the most expensive of missiles, and in short, high-intensity conflicts where a backstop is needed before whatever is launching missiles/airstrikes is stopped. It has proved a minor disaster for Saudi Arabia in its attritional war with Houthi rebels and their Iranian missiles/drones, and they're made of money in a way Ukraine simply isn't.

I'm not claiming Soviet AD is as effective, but the Slovakian S-300PMU battery - while less capable in many respects - covered the same range at a much lower price. Helping Ukraine produce more S-300s, perhaps in another country, would have been wiser.

[jaichind]

https://www.plenglish.com/news/2022/12/07/angela-merkel-reveals-intention-of-minsk-agreements/

"Angela Merkel reveals intention of Minsk agreements"

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel affirmed today that the Minsk agreements were signed with the aim of giving Ukraine time to get stronger, highlighted the newspaper Die Zeit.

This most likely is an attempt by Merkel to rewrite history to justify her actions.  But if true this does not sound like the actions of a  "rules based international order"  Not that Russia is great a keeping to agreements but it seems both side are just two sides of the same coin.

[jaichind]

Patriot missiles cost $3 million each.  This is a costly system to use.  Of course, the USA will pay.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Patriot missiles cost $3 million each.  This is a costly system to use.  Of course, the USA will pay.

The US may pay, but as of 2022, they were struggling to keep KSA supplied even when KSA was paying and in a much less intense war of attrition. Keeping Ukraine supplied may prove too difficult even with infinite money, and the Patriot will test the public purse like no other aid. The MIC's most expensive cash cow is not to be taken lightly.

The mitigating factors are that KSA probably had crap operators and lacked other means of ground-based AD so (unlike Ukraine) could only launch Patriot missiles against kamikaze drones which had somehow evaded their aircraft.

In any case, they're only going to be remotely economical if used against ballistic missiles (debatable) and jets (definitely worthwhile if they fly within range, but Russian jets are already deterred from most of that range by Ukrainian S-300s.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Just to be clear, the US (or anyone prepared to spend that kind of money) could probably buy all of the Slovak/Polish MiGs and send them in disassembled form as "spare parts" for a fraction of the costs involved in maintaining a single Patriot for any serious length of time. The 11 Slovak MiGs were initiially overpriced by their own govt. at $30m each and Ukraine has a substantial inventory of armaments/spare parts for them.

[Storr]

.....what?

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1602324614725734403?s=20&t=0iWsfP79...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1602740637450661888?s=20&t=GAZdgzZXG_x5yI...

[Woody]

Back in business:

https://twitter.com/w3bsag3/status/1602715474629795840
https://twitter.com/ilciclistainblu/status/1602692288358096899

[Storr]

Interesting:

"[Vadim] Konoshchenok [48, of St. Petersburg] – who is suspected to be an FSB officer – would ship or physically smuggle U.S.-origin items from Estonia to Russia, including dual-use electronics, military-grade tactical ammunition and other export-controlled items. As alleged in the indictment, on Oct. 27, 2022, Konoshchenok was stopped at the Estonian border with 35 different types of semiconductors and other electronic components ordered by Livsh*ts, as well as thousands of U.S.-made 6.5mm bullets, which are used in military sniper rifles. On Nov. 24, 2022, Konoshchenok was again stopped attempting to cross into Russia with approximately 20 cases containing thousands of U.S.-origin bullets, including tactical rounds and .338 military sniper rounds. Konoshchenok discussed “fabricating” business records with Livsh*ts to conceal the ammunition shipments, on one occasion describing them as “auto parts.”  Incident to Konoshchenok’s arrest, Estonian authorities searched a warehouse held in the name of Konoshchenok’s son and recovered approximately 375 pounds worth of ammunition."

https://twitter.com/gavinbwilde/status/1602752834017058816?s=20&t=0iWsfP79Gw...