Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[John Dule]

Can someone who understands strategy better than me explain what's happening with the Crimean Bridge? Has Ukraine made any moves to destroy it? If not, why not?

[NOVA Green]

Russia has tons of dissidents.

Most likely another "smoking accident" where drunk Russian soldier "high on Wodka", naturally blows up their own joint chooses not to go to war for "The Vlad's" War of Conquest and Occupation of Ukraine.

Sure... Russia might blame Ukrainian Partisans or "Terrorists" for this, but reality is that there are a boatload of Russian Soldiers that don't want to go to frontlines, grok the BS from Big Brother is "fake news"...

Could be Ukrainian Drone...

Regardless, pretty clear that Ukraine has shown a bit of an ability to "fight fire with fire", regardless of BRTD related threads and the merits of Heavy Metal.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Can someone who understands strategy better than me explain what's happening with the Crimean Bridge? Has Ukraine made any moves to destroy it? If not, why not?

IIRC that bridge is specifically hardened against missile strikes.

Basically it’s allot harder to impossible to just blow up with air strikes and rocket launchers vs just picking off vehicle trapped on a giant bridge.

[AndyHogan14]

Nice way to end the day here on the West Coast or start the day in Ukraine!

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1578605334062473216?s=20&t=c8_8rgv...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1578598392779112449?s=20&t=c8_8rgv...
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1578612564443148288?s=20&t=c8_8rgvx...

The Muscovites really need to lay off the cigarettes.

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578633576253657089

[DINGO Joe]

Not sure if this is parody meme or an actual real thing?

Recently got off work and haven't had a chance to investigate, but after all as others noted Mr. Lukashenko is now all into Potatoes.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1578501651169935360?s=20&t=uxFgwUF45...

It's real or so says the BBC.  Long ago SNL had a very lame skit of Ronald Reagan where he acted like a dithering fool for the press but as soon as the door closed he became a multitasking genius.  Luka is 4D master troller.

[DINGO Joe]

At this time there seems to be Osint consensus that blast was done from the water.

[NOVA Green]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578633576253657089

This is obviously what happens when drunk Russian conscripts gather on bridge, drinking Wodka, smoking cigs, and shooting off illegal fireworks.

Happy 70th B-Day Mr. Putin and к черту войну.

[DINGO Joe]

Official government statement

https://mobile.twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1578634825417650176

[DINGO Joe]

It's like the nights of a 1000 memes out there.  Thank God it's the weekend

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1578659441159057408

[Virginiá]

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/TheRealYenChen/status/1578613444453941248

It was NAFO all along.

[jaichind]

Russia's Ministry of Transportation claims the rail part of the bridge has already been fixed and will resume running tonight local time.

[Torie]

Is Russia stepping up the use of these Iranian drones in Western Ukraine for specific military purposes, or to just destroy infrastructure and terrorize the civilian population out of spite the way Churchill fire bombed Dresden during WWII?

If Russian can send in drones from Belarus into Ukraine, why can't Ukraine send in drones to take out the drones in the airfield that they are being deployed to?  Are these drones the best thing ever? I mean they seem relatively cheap and accurate, and you don't have to cope with pilots. And just why is a relatively backward rat hole like Iran able to fabricate them?

What are we going to do about Iran selling these bad boys to Russia?

[jaichind]

Is Russia stepping up the use of these Iranian drones in Western Ukraine for specific military purposes, or just destroy infrastructure and terrorize the civilian population out of spite the way Churchill fire bombed Dresden during WWII?

If Russian can send in drones from Belarus into Ukraine, why can't Ukraine send in drones to take out the drones in the airfield that they are being deployed to?  Are these drones the best thing ever? I mean they seem relatively cheap and accurate, and you don't have to cope with pilots. And just why is a relatively backward rat hole like Iran able to fabricate them?

What are we going to do about Iran selling these bad boys to Russia?

I think it is legit for Ukraine to attack the Russian bases those drones came from.  There might be a blowback but it is for Ukraine to decide if it is worth it.  Russia is very strong in military technology overall but drone technology is one of the ones in which Russia has underinvested for a long time so it is not a surprise they had to rely on Iran for these drones.

[jaichind]

Russia's Ministry of Transportation claims that the undamaged part of the road bridge will be open for traffic at 4 PM local time.

[Person Man]

Is Russia stepping up the use of these Iranian drones in Western Ukraine for specific military purposes, or just destroy infrastructure and terrorize the civilian population out of spite the way Churchill fire bombed Dresden during WWII?

If Russian can send in drones from Belarus into Ukraine, why can't Ukraine send in drones to take out the drones in the airfield that they are being deployed to?  Are these drones the best thing ever? I mean they seem relatively cheap and accurate, and you don't have to cope with pilots. And just why is a relatively backward rat hole like Iran able to fabricate them?

What are we going to do about Iran selling these bad boys to Russia?

I think it is legit for Ukraine to attack the Russian bases those drones came from.  There might be a blowback but it is for Ukraine to decide if it is worth it.  Russia is very strong in military technology overall but drone technology is one of the ones in which Russia has underinvested for a long time so it is not a surprise they had to rely on Iran for these drones.

It’s very sad, yes.

[Logical]

You don't have to be a civil engineer to realize why Russia's claims are physically impossible. Come on.

[DINGO Joe]

Ukraine also hit a railyard in Eastern Donbas last night

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1578493789122883585

[jaichind]

I am not clear what the official Ukraine position on the bridge attack is.  Earlier today it seems they claimed credit for it but now they seem to be saying it is a Russian false flag. 

I suspect the USA coming out in saying Ukraine was behind the assassination of Darya Dugina a few days ago was because they knew Ukraine had other operations coming up and wanted to disassociate itself from those operations.

[jaichind]

You don't have to be a civil engineer to realize why Russia's claims are physically impossible. Come on.

The road part of the claim is totally believable since it is clear two lanes of the bridge were completely unaffected by the blast.  The rail part of the claim could be true in the sense that repairs most likely could be done in that time frame but Russia would be taking a big risk of allowing trains to use it instead of taking to verify that there is not other damage that they did not account for.  They are better off waiting a couple of days to make sure for the railroad.

[jaichind]

Head of Crimea Aksyonov says that the undamaged part of the road bridge is now open to car traffic.

[jaichind]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/10/8/7370891/

This is  Ukraine media saying that SBU is behind the bridge attack although it is not official.  I think that has since been walked back by Ukrainian authorities.

[Logical]

You don't have to be a civil engineer to realize why Russia's claims are physically impossible. Come on.

The road part of the claim is totally believable since it is clear two lanes of the bridge were completely unaffected by the blast.  The rail part of the claim could be true in the sense that repairs most likely could be done in that time frame but Russia would be taking a big risk of allowing trains to use it instead of taking to verify that there is not other damage that they did not account for.  They are better off waiting a couple of days to make sure for the railroad.

Rail bridge is heavily damaged. It'll takes weeks to remove the burnt fuel train, restore the tracks, and assess how damaged the supports are. Not something that can be done in less than a day.


One half of the road bridge looks okay but I wouldn't dare drive anything larger than a civilian car through it.