Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[GeneralMacArthur]

Can y'all please stop turning every page of this thread into a giant wall of text that gets quoted over and over in your endless debate with the boneheaded fool Hollywood?  Just ignore him.  Or mods, move his BS to its own thread.

[HillGoose]

All this is justified by global elitists from Anglo-Saxon countries in the west.  It is the belief of the US, Germany, the UK, etc. that NATO's Global Initiatives are always good.

lmao because they are, cope harder commie

[jaichind]

Eventually, if things start going poorly and Russians are rolling into Kharkiv, and getting close to Odessa and Kiev, a decision will have to be made but we are not at that point yet.

That is my hope for this war to end eventually.  Both sides have to understand that anything close to total victory by either side will provoke massive retaliation by the other side.  The war can only end in a way where it saves face for both sides.  Both sides will lose something they do not want to lose but get something in return. 

[Splash]

I am going to wait for further visual confirmation before celebrating, but there's increasing chatter on both sides that Ukraine broke through Russian lines on the Kherson front.


https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1576611237479288833
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1576602192990961664
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1576603172595900416

[Person Man]

I am going to wait for further visual confirmation before celebrating, but there's increasing chatter on both sides that Ukraine broke through Russian lines on the Kherson front.


https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1576611237479288833
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1576602192990961664
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1576603172595900416

That’s a blitz.

[Person Man]

Eventually, if things start going poorly and Russians are rolling into Kharkiv, and getting close to Odessa and Kiev, a decision will have to be made but we are not at that point yet.

That is my hope for this war to end eventually.  Both sides have to understand that anything close to total victory by either side will provoke massive retaliation by the other side.  The war can only end in a way where it saves face for both sides.  Both sides will lose something they do not want to lose but get something in return. 

The West’s main objectives are 1) Russia is deterred from further aggression and 2) Ukrainians, Baltics, and perhaps even Caucasians still feel that they can rely on the west.

[jaichind]

Eventually, if things start going poorly and Russians are rolling into Kharkiv, and getting close to Odessa and Kiev, a decision will have to be made but we are not at that point yet.

That is my hope for this war to end eventually.  Both sides have to understand that anything close to total victory by either side will provoke massive retaliation by the other side.  The war can only end in a way where it saves face for both sides.  Both sides will lose something they do not want to lose but get something in return. 

The West’s main objectives are 1) Russia is deterred from further aggression and 2) Ukrainians, Baltics, and perhaps even Caucasians still feel that they can rely on the west.

I am sure the collective West will emerge with some variation of that in relative terms but certainly not in absolute terms.  Kissinger said that  “The desire of one power for absolute security means the absolute insecurity for all the others."  Absolute security against Russia is impossible.  It can only be relative security in terms of cost for Russian actions and Russia can only afford to pay only in cases where it is central to its security needs.

[Torie]

Eventually, if things start going poorly and Russians are rolling into Kharkiv, and getting close to Odessa and Kiev, a decision will have to be made but we are not at that point yet.

That is my hope for this war to end eventually.  Both sides have to understand that anything close to total victory by either side will provoke massive retaliation by the other side.  The war can only end in a way where it saves face for both sides.  Both sides will lose something they do not want to lose but get something in return.  

The West’s main objectives are 1) Russia is deterred from further aggression and 2) Ukrainians, Baltics, and perhaps even Caucasians still feel that they can rely on the west.

I am sure the collective West will emerge with some variation of that in relative terms but certainly not in absolute terms.  Kissinger said that  “The desire of one power for absolute security means the absolute insecurity for all the others."  Absolute security against Russia is impossible.  It can only be relative security in terms of cost for Russian actions and Russia can only afford to pay only in cases where it is central to its security needs.

Nice try, but no. Who in their right mind would want to invade Russia and attempt to rule over Russians and inherit all of its problems? That is madness. That is not quite as mad as invading N. Korea and inheriting all of its problems, but almost. No, aside from Putin's irredentist and mystical obsessions, what this is really about is Putin's and his thug elites worrying about Ukraine becoming a civil first world nation with a first world standard of living, that would make the dysfunctional Russia look horrible in comparison and risk bringing tumbling down the whole house of cards in an internal revolution.

But maybe that is what you meant; it is about the Russian thuggish elites security from its own people.

[Splash]

In addition to the developments around Kherson and Kreminna, the Ukrainians have expanded their bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Oskil River to include Kivsharivka (previously confirmed) and now Kurylivka, which is directly east of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.

https://twitter.com/PeurAvion/status/1576617214777516033

[Mehmentum]

Feeling increasingly like the mobilization was ordered because it was the only way to stop the front line from completely collapsing.

[Splash]

Kherson Oblast:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576636571658649605

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576619107734388736?s=20&t=iEZvr0UhrvO0YE...

[Epaminondas]

Slightly unrelated to the current excitement, but what does the restored Ukraine-Russia border look like now? Mined up and locked down?

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576616680368656384
I am not sure I can take so much winning all at once, and perhaps WM is getting ahead of himself. But I have read more than one screed that Kherson was being defended by "elite" Russian troops, their very best. If things are unraveling for their very best, with a disorganized mad dash out over pontoon bridges while they are being shelled in the offing, that at least shows that Ukraine's army now has the prowess to defeat whatever Putin throws at it, nukes aside, an issue that we beat to death above. If. Please let it be true.

[Storr]

In a grainfield somewhere in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1576626241641541633?s=20&t=cPSj2XCx3...

[NOVA Green]

I am going to wait for further visual confirmation before celebrating, but there's increasing chatter on both sides that Ukraine broke through Russian lines on the Kherson front.


https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1576611237479288833
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1576602192990961664
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1576603172595900416

On that note:

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1576630576085274624?s=20&t=O0AxJ-...

[Frodo]

I am going to wait for further visual confirmation before celebrating, but there's increasing chatter on both sides that Ukraine broke through Russian lines on the Kherson front.


https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1576611237479288833
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1576602192990961664
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1576603172595900416

On that note:

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1576630576085274624?s=20&t=O0AxJ-...

Please let it be true.  If so, that's 20,000 to 25,000 Russian elite soldiers on the verge of being either killed or captured, and permanently taken off the battlefield.  Those are losses Putin simply cannot afford.   

[NOVA Green]

I believe there might have already been some discussion about it upthread, but was difficult to find with all of the clutter concerning other topics / opinions:

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1576637224376217600?s=20&t=O0AxJ-...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576616680368656384
I am not sure I can take so much winning all at once, and perhaps WM is getting ahead of himself. But I have read more than one screed that Kherson was being defended by "elite" Russian troops, their very best. If things are unraveling for their very best, with a disorganized mad dash out over pontoon bridges while they are being shelled in the offing, that at least shows that Ukraine's army now has the prowess to defeat whatever Putin throws at it, nukes aside, an issue that we beat to death above. If. Please let it be true.

It has been reported that the military leadership wanted to evacuate Kherson and retreat east of the river to prevent a geographic pocket from trapping soldiers with limited access to resupply and support. They were told no. Its not hard to understand: abandoning territory is not the Russian leaderships desire after the northern retreat. Just abandoning a city with more people than any single other location that has so far been conquered and then liberated was too heavy a political cost. It would be a definite sign that Russia is irreversibly losing. It might prompt the hardliners towards internal dissatisfaction with a regime failing to act upon its promised desires.

Now that all still might happen after spending blood and treasure to try and hold on.

[Virginiá]

Not sure what the overall goal of recent Kherson ops was but it seems like Ukraine might have tried a pincer move on the eastern front to encircle a large area of Russian forces, and the southeastern group broke through but the one at Davydiv Brid didn't and suffered losses. Not totally surprising though, the southern front has the largest concentration of actually-trained Russian forces and seems to be the most important to Putin himself. That front is unfortunately likely to exact a greater toll to liberate.

[Mehmentum]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576655785912074241
Not a great sign lmao.

And if its true that all of Russia's most elite troops are on the Kherson front, than leaving them in such a precarious position would be a massive blunder.  Leaving your best troops under-supplied and exposed to attrition is terrible for the long term outlook of the army.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile "Mother Russia" is apparently doing "rebuilding and reconstruction" of infrastructure which it destroyed.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1576631285489217540?s=20&t=O0AxJ-rw6uZQy...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like the weather around Kherson might favor Ukrainian mobile ground forces today:


https://twitter.com/MonitorConflict/status/1576605672288190464?s=20&t=O0AxJ-...

[NOVA Green]

HIMARS update from Kherson region today:


https://twitter.com/f_o_r_Ukraine/status/1576660294595551233?s=20&t=O0AxJ-rw...

[NOVA Green]

Not the biggest meme poster out there, but saw this and found it amusing and topical in context of recent Ukrainian military breakthroughs.

https://twitter.com/Professor_SE0/status/1576663713192767493?s=20&t=O0AxJ-rw...