Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 825031 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #15350 on: September 30, 2022, 08:06:06 AM »



False dichotomy no. 2.

I don't recall James K. Polk being considered an international pariah or being subject to international sanctions over it. And the reason why this was the case is because international relations were conducted under a different set of rules than they are post-WWII.

Do you understand the difference?

I am not aware of any official "international pariah" title or how that would be assigned.  The latest UN vote on this seems to indicate that less than 1/3 of UN members voted against Russia.  Does not sound like an international pariah to me.

https://usun.usmission.gov/joint-statement-on-six-months-of-russias-full-scale-invasion-of-ukraine/

UN statement on the 6th month of the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.  58 UN members (which is less than 1/3 of UN members) signed up.  Pretty much the core collective West states and allies but nothing else.  The only "swing" votes this statement got is Türkiye and Singapore.
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jaichind
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« Reply #15351 on: September 30, 2022, 08:07:24 AM »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/why-germany-and-the-us-are-stalling-on-modern-tanks-for-ukraine#xj4y7vzkg

"Why Germany and the US Are Stalling on Modern Tanks for Ukraine"

Beyond what the article talks about which is about concerns over dwindling stockpiles and logistics there is also the issue of tank doctrine.  I mentioned this before.  Germany took over a large cache of French tanks in 1940 but it ended up being useless for the rest of the war because French tank doctrine was different from German tank doctrine. 

I think if a large of these NATO tanks (which are just bigger than the USSR-based tank models and might not do as well in the muddier terrine in Ukraine) do show up there might be a need for some NATO "volunteers" to operate them.  In fact, that might be another form of NATO escalation a-la Flying Tigers in the Sino-Japanese war before 1941.  Perhaps NATO can form a "Running Panthers" group to go into Ukraine to operate NATO tanks as their escalation to the recent Russian escalations.

You mean NATO should send in “advisors”?

No, Russia can then claim that that is an act of war. What NATO can do is have their own "Wagner group" of former NATO tank operators come in and work for Ukraine to operate some of these NATO tanks that are not compatible with Ukraine tank doctrine.
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Torie
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« Reply #15352 on: September 30, 2022, 08:09:40 AM »

It is pretty obvious to me that full bore training of Ukrainian troops in large numbers is going on out of country.
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jaichind
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« Reply #15353 on: September 30, 2022, 08:09:57 AM »

So Putin pulls off his own version of the Republic of West Florida scam of 1810 although that one was more of a rouge operation by ex-members of the USA military.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #15354 on: September 30, 2022, 08:12:36 AM »

Putin says he won’t negotiate with Kiev on the annexed territories, but that Ukraine should stop fighting and start talks. 

I guess the new Russian position is: Ukraine has to accept the loss of the 4 Oblasts (and Crimea of course) and once that takes place Russia will be willing to stop fighting.

Yes, and he's now - at this very moment - losing territory he proclaimed as his, to a supposedly inferior enemy. How shameful that is!
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Person Man
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« Reply #15355 on: September 30, 2022, 08:12:42 AM »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/why-germany-and-the-us-are-stalling-on-modern-tanks-for-ukraine#xj4y7vzkg

"Why Germany and the US Are Stalling on Modern Tanks for Ukraine"

Beyond what the article talks about which is about concerns over dwindling stockpiles and logistics there is also the issue of tank doctrine.  I mentioned this before.  Germany took over a large cache of French tanks in 1940 but it ended up being useless for the rest of the war because French tank doctrine was different from German tank doctrine. 

I think if a large of these NATO tanks (which are just bigger than the USSR-based tank models and might not do as well in the muddier terrine in Ukraine) do show up there might be a need for some NATO "volunteers" to operate them.  In fact, that might be another form of NATO escalation a-la Flying Tigers in the Sino-Japanese war before 1941.  Perhaps NATO can form a "Running Panthers" group to go into Ukraine to operate NATO tanks as their escalation to the recent Russian escalations.

You mean NATO should send in “advisors”?

No, Russia can then claim that that is an act of war. What NATO can do is have their own "Wagner group" of former NATO tank operators come in and work for Ukraine to operate some of these NATO tanks that are not compatible with Ukraine tank doctrine.

Like a Blackwater type of deal?
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jaichind
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« Reply #15356 on: September 30, 2022, 08:19:58 AM »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/why-germany-and-the-us-are-stalling-on-modern-tanks-for-ukraine#xj4y7vzkg

"Why Germany and the US Are Stalling on Modern Tanks for Ukraine"

Beyond what the article talks about which is about concerns over dwindling stockpiles and logistics there is also the issue of tank doctrine.  I mentioned this before.  Germany took over a large cache of French tanks in 1940 but it ended up being useless for the rest of the war because French tank doctrine was different from German tank doctrine. 

I think if a large of these NATO tanks (which are just bigger than the USSR-based tank models and might not do as well in the muddier terrine in Ukraine) do show up there might be a need for some NATO "volunteers" to operate them.  In fact, that might be another form of NATO escalation a-la Flying Tigers in the Sino-Japanese war before 1941.  Perhaps NATO can form a "Running Panthers" group to go into Ukraine to operate NATO tanks as their escalation to the recent Russian escalations.

You mean NATO should send in “advisors”?

No, Russia can then claim that that is an act of war. What NATO can do is have their own "Wagner group" of former NATO tank operators come in and work for Ukraine to operate some of these NATO tanks that are not compatible with Ukraine tank doctrine.

Like a Blackwater type of deal?

Well, I used the Flying Tigers as the best model I can think of.  The idea was that the USA sent a bunch of planes to ROC in its undeclared war with Japan.  Problem was that the ROC pilots do not know how to fly American fighters and will take years to train them.  So a bunch of retired USA pilots joined the private Flying Tigers group that was in the pay of ROC to fly those planes.

A side and interesting note.  There was one year in the Sino-Japanese War, 1938, when Germany, the USA, and USSR were simultaneously sending volunteers to help the ROC in their war effort.   What the ROC had to do to make sure none of these volunteers meet each other since, at that time Germany, the USA, and USSR all were hostile to each other.  After that Germany dropped out since they made a call to prioritize its relationship with Japan and USSR dropped out after it made a deal with Japan in 1939.
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Person Man
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« Reply #15357 on: September 30, 2022, 08:23:08 AM »

So Putin pulls off his own version of the Republic of West Florida scam of 1810 although that one was more of a rouge operation by ex-members of the USA military.

I think in 5th Grade I had to read the memoirs of a military officer who was exiled to a life at sea over this.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #15358 on: September 30, 2022, 08:24:43 AM »

Putin says he won’t negotiate with Kiev on the annexed territories, but that Ukraine should stop fighting and start talks. 

I guess the new Russian position is: Ukraine has to accept the loss of the 4 Oblasts (and Crimea of course) and once that takes place Russia will be willing to stop fighting.

Yes, and he's now - at this very moment - losing territory he proclaimed as his, to a supposedly inferior enemy. How shameful that is!

Though it seemingly implies an acceptance that the rest of Ukraine isn't "theirs".

And that means not just Kiev but also Kharkiv and Odessa.

Whatever happens now, Ukraine is 99% certain to survive this as a recognisable functional state.
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Person Man
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« Reply #15359 on: September 30, 2022, 08:26:29 AM »

Putin says he won’t negotiate with Kiev on the annexed territories, but that Ukraine should stop fighting and start talks. 

I guess the new Russian position is: Ukraine has to accept the loss of the 4 Oblasts (and Crimea of course) and once that takes place Russia will be willing to stop fighting.

Yes, and he's now - at this very moment - losing territory he proclaimed as his, to a supposedly inferior enemy. How shameful that is!

Though it seemingly implies an acceptance that the rest of Ukraine isn't "theirs".

And that means not just Kiev but also Kharkiv and Odessa.

Whatever happens now, Ukraine is 99% certain to survive this as a recognisable functional state.

Which implies the continued ability to integrate with NATO and the EU and the continued possession of at least one port? 
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exnaderite
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« Reply #15360 on: September 30, 2022, 08:33:00 AM »

Putin says he won’t negotiate with Kiev on the annexed territories, but that Ukraine should stop fighting and start talks. 

I guess the new Russian position is: Ukraine has to accept the loss of the 4 Oblasts (and Crimea of course) and once that takes place Russia will be willing to stop fighting.

Yes, and he's now - at this very moment - losing territory he proclaimed as his, to a supposedly inferior enemy. How shameful that is!

Though it seemingly implies an acceptance that the rest of Ukraine isn't "theirs".

And that means not just Kiev but also Kharkiv and Odessa.

Whatever happens now, Ukraine is 99% certain to survive this as a recognisable functional state.

Not necessarily. Putin talked about Ukraine in the former sense - implying that its mere existence is illegitimate, and that he's entitled to try to have another go at these cities at a later date.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15361 on: September 30, 2022, 08:39:58 AM »
« Edited: September 30, 2022, 08:51:22 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

For those of you who don’t want to waste your time with the speech - Putin quoted scripture, claimed the US was making experimental super soldiers, vowed to “liberate the world”, suggested there was an Anglo-Saxon conspiracy and reiterated Russia’s right to all of southeastern Ukraine because of the Russian empire’s history and WW2. He then claimed the war needed to be fought to stop America from forcing Russians to become gay and trans.

So, we have the first instance of a Terminally Online war. I tremble to think of what is to come as future generations rise to power.

What Putin didn’t do in his speech is clarify what the annexations apply to. The documents have been signed - it seems the annexations are instantly in effect, but I’m not 100% sure - but there’s confusion as to whether they apply to the whole oblasts, the areas with referendums, the areas with referendums which hadn’t yet been lost by the time of annexation, or the 2014 LDPR gang borders. In other words, he’s communicating that he has new red lines but doesn’t know where they are.
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bagelman
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« Reply #15362 on: September 30, 2022, 08:54:09 AM »

For those of you who don’t want to waste your time with the speech - Putin quoted scripture, claimed the US was making experimental super soldiers, vowed to “liberate the world”, suggested there was an Anglo-Saxon conspiracy and reiterated Russia’s right to all of southeastern Ukraine because of the Russian empire’s history and WW2. He then claimed the war needed to be fought to stop America from forcing Russians to become gay and trans.

So, we have the first instance of a Terminally Online war. I tremble to think of what is to come as future generations rise to power.

What Putin didn’t do in his speech is clarify what the annexations apply to. The documents have been signed - it seems the annexations are instantly in effect, but I’m not 100% sure - but there’s confusion as to whether they apply to the whole oblasts, the areas with referendums, the areas with referendums which hadn’t yet been lost by the time of annexation, or the 2014 LDPR gang borders. In other words, he’s communicating that he has new red lines but doesn’t know where they are.

None of the bolded sound encouraging for those worried about WWIII.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #15363 on: September 30, 2022, 08:54:45 AM »

For those of you who don’t want to waste your time with the speech - Putin quoted scripture, claimed the US was making experimental super soldiers, vowed to “liberate the world”, suggested there was an Anglo-Saxon conspiracy and reiterated Russia’s right to all of southeastern Ukraine because of the Russian empire’s history and WW2. He then claimed the war needed to be fought to stop America from forcing Russians to become gay and trans.

So, we have the first instance of a Terminally Online war. I tremble to think of what is to come as future generations rise to power.

What Putin didn’t do in his speech is clarify what the annexations apply to. The documents have been signed - it seems the annexations are instantly in effect, but I’m not 100% sure - but there’s confusion as to whether they apply to the whole oblasts, the areas with referendums, the areas with referendums which hadn’t yet been lost by the time of annexation, or the 2014 LDPR gang borders. In other words, he’s communicating that he has new red lines but doesn’t know where they are.

It's about NATO expansion though? Right? Right? Vladimir it's about NATO expansion right??? RIGHT??

Seriously thank you for the analysis.
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Person Man
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« Reply #15364 on: September 30, 2022, 08:55:43 AM »

Back to the war. How many Russians are trapped in Lyman?
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Torie
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« Reply #15365 on: September 30, 2022, 08:55:51 AM »

So what happens now? Who in their right mind would want to take a drive through Torske right now? The time has come. Has Putin changed his mind about holding Lyman?

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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15366 on: September 30, 2022, 09:08:12 AM »

Up until now, the evidence suggests Ukraine had only used M31 unitary warhead rockets, along with some old German AT2 mine rockets.


 
M30 is more often bought (by the US, at least) than M31 and is an anti-personnel munition meant to affect a wider area. Thankfully, the version supplied is not a cluster munition (inert tungsten balls won’t poison the land after the war; the old M30s used submunitions instead, which could fail to detonate and then pose threats for years afterwards).
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jaichind
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« Reply #15367 on: September 30, 2022, 09:16:55 AM »

Putin in his speech asked the Russian people if they want to live in a country where mother and father become parent 1 and parent 2.  This mimics some of the themes of Giorgia Meloni in some of her speeches.  It is clear Putin is also trying to appeal to the populist Conservative Right in the EU.
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jaichind
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« Reply #15368 on: September 30, 2022, 09:23:03 AM »

Just watching ROC media I can tell it is moving more negatively against Russia.  The ROC media can be divided into Deep Green, Light Green, Light Blue, Deep Blue, and Red with the Greens very pro-USA (although more pro-Trump than Dems) and pro-independence while Blues being anti-independence but wary of the PRC and the pro-Red media, in theory neutral on PRC, but de facto are pro-PRC outlets.  When the Russia-Ukraine war started all ROC media were fairly pro-Ukraine with pro-Red media mostly neutral.  After the Russian 300K mobilization, the ROC Red media is getting more negative on Russia and their coverage is converging toward Deep Blue coverage on Russia-Ukraine (still very positive on PRC but negative on Russia.)  I think part of the ROC Red media has that a Russian escalation could drag PRC into it which the ROC Red media does not seem to hot on.
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Isaak
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« Reply #15369 on: September 30, 2022, 09:24:32 AM »

Putin in his speech asked the Russian people if they want to live in a country where mother and father become parent 1 and parent 2.  This mimics some of the themes of Giorgia Meloni in some of her speeches.  It is clear Putin is also trying to appeal to the populist Conservative Right in the EU.

And still, the "populist Conservative Right in the EU" was never as anti-Putin and pro-NATO as today...

It's a stupid rhetorical platitude. I don't think that there is anything more behind it.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15370 on: September 30, 2022, 09:26:30 AM »

Putin in his speech asked the Russian people if they want to live in a country where mother and father become parent 1 and parent 2.  This mimics some of the themes of Giorgia Meloni in some of her speeches.  It is clear Putin is also trying to appeal to the populist Conservative Right in the EU.

Eight months ago, I’d have completely agreed he was doing this for his fans at home and abroad. Since then, I’ve learned to ask myself, “What if he’s just that stupid?”

I think it is possible he actually believes most of this and is suffering from online brainrot after COVID-era isolation. There’d be some twisted irony in his “anti-colonial” speech leaning so heavily on Western-manufactured kulturkampf, but it can’t be ruled out.
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jaichind
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« Reply #15371 on: September 30, 2022, 09:28:34 AM »

Putin in his speech asked the Russian people if they want to live in a country where mother and father become parent 1 and parent 2.  This mimics some of the themes of Giorgia Meloni in some of her speeches.  It is clear Putin is also trying to appeal to the populist Conservative Right in the EU.

And still, the "populist Conservative Right in the EU" was never as anti-Putin and pro-NATO as today...

It's a stupid rhetorical platitude. I don't think that there is anything more behind it.

All the more reason for him to get them back. Even if not raising cultural issues that can serve to increase political divisions within EU countries can only be good for Putin.
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jaichind
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« Reply #15372 on: September 30, 2022, 09:29:55 AM »

US Sanctions Russia Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiullina

Next would be Putin's cousin, then Putin's dog, then...
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Splash
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« Reply #15373 on: September 30, 2022, 09:35:04 AM »

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KaiserDave
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« Reply #15374 on: September 30, 2022, 09:48:30 AM »

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