Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Nope, there's absolutely no way the Russians would blow up a pipe that they get no money out of for the foreseeable future to fracture western unity!

[Woody]

Final results of the referendums are in.

https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1574866062125895680

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1575043916478353408?s=20&t=wORpQH2n...

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1575043916478353408?s=20&t=wORpQH2n...

If you add in lake you can argue that the Russians are already cut off.  If they have an artillery edge here they better start using it or should should be pulling out and fight another day.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1575064443699884032

[Middle-aged Europe]

Amazing that Pro-Putin Atlas apologists are rushing to blame this on the USA...

Not quite sure what crack pipes they are smoking, but despite the history of US and UK covert actions during the Cold War, this definitely doesn't pass the "sniff test".

Sounds to me a lot more like former Soviet BS Propaganda and Special Ops, which really is not only ancient, but in fact has been extensively used in recent years as part of Kremlin Propaganda after the collapse of the Soviet Empire, where Mr. Putin became dictator in chief.

Atlas "Putinbots" are out in force today, but yet they are effectively showing their true colors when it comes to their absolute support for the current Fascist Russian Regime in Power.

Update from the Warzone:

Bearing all this in mind, it’s not altogether surprising that some observers are already looking at Russia’s capabilities, at least, for prosecuting this kind of attack on undersea pipelines.

In the past, we’ve looked at how the Russian Navy can use a variety of means to conduct covert operations on the seabed. Normally, it’s been assumed that these special mission submarines, deep-sea submersibles, and unmanned underwater vehicles are charged with investigating and disrupting undersea cables. As well as cutting and tapping communications cables, however, such craft could also be used to interfere with gas pipelines, for instance.

Most prominent among these exotic craft is likely the Project 09852 Belgorod, a large mothership submarine that is suitable for transporting other smaller submarines, like the nuclear-powered midget submarine Losharik, which it can bring covertly to and from a mission area. However, the Belgorod is currently thought to be operating in the White Sea and the Baltic Sea is not where these large submarines operate.

Moreover, it’s also highly likely that pipelines could be covertly sabotaged even without recourse to using high-tech submarines and other underwater vehicles. At least one of the leaks is thought to be in water shallow enough for divers to operate and transporting explosive charges would certainly be feasible. However, divers or unmanned underwater vehicles would at least require some kind of support vessel, although this wouldn’t have to be operating in the vicinity.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/sabotage-suspected-in-undersea-gas-pipeline-explosions-in-the-baltic

It's amazing that it only takes the disruption of two little pipelines and everyone suddenly loses any connection to reality.

After having slept it over and reading a couple of assessments on it, I assume that the most obvious scenario is also the most likely. Vladimir Putin has a whole history of undertaking "bold", "aggressive" actions that don't necessarily make sense and may even hurt his own country in the long run, starting with the occupation of Crimea in 2014. And he certainly hasn't gotten any better since then. So why is his culpability so hard to believe for some? Were you in coma these past seven months and haven't noticed what happened in the world?

That being said, of course an investigation should be conducted and the ones responsible need to be  identified, be it for the (IMO unlikely) outside chance that Ukrainian intelligence was involved or something.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Final results of the referendums are in.

https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1574866062125895680

lol k. Reminds me of that South Vietnam election where Diem's ego made him give himself 138% of the vote.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1575043916478353408?s=20&t=wORpQH2n...

What was the vote in Lyman for secession?

[Farmlands]

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1575062775902208000

The liberation of Kharkiv oblast from Russian forces seems to be close to completion. With the simultaneous encroachment near Lyman, it seems that the Ukrainian army is poised for some major victories in the next few days. Let's hope that holds.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1575075662653640704?s=20&t=JLG-YC49Jy...

[Woody]

Unfortunately this is just delaying the inevitable as mobilization continues. Ukrainians has exhausted so much of their offensive capabilities despite it being in wartime on flatland close to the border which makes it prone to future incursions by Russia, instead of going for Kherson or the populated areas of Donetsk. And with winter coming up Russians have serious time to at least make their troops combat ready, during the end of winter/start of spring Russia will have solved the manpower problems.

A war of attrition is going to be in favor of Russia.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

"The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine"

[Woody]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

"The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine"

In a sense, Putin is demilitarizing NATO along with Ukraine.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

"The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine"

In a sense, Putin is demilitarizing NATO along with Ukraine.

While Russia has an unlimited amount of weapons and ammunition that will never be exhausted?

[Woody]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

"The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine"

In a sense, Putin is demilitarizing NATO along with Ukraine.

While Russia has an unlimited amount of weapons and ammunition that will never be exhausted?

Difference is that Russia has switched over to partial wartime production. As the article says, the current production rate for the NATO members are in line with peacetime.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

"The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine"

In a sense, Putin is demilitarizing NATO along with Ukraine.

My understanding is at least in terms of dumb artillery ammunition, the USSR built up a massive horde of mostly obsolete and workable shells.  Putin benefits from decisions the USSR made in the 1960s and 1970s.  As Stalin one says "Quantity it is own quality"

[Virginiá]

“I’m greatly concerned. Unless we have new production, which takes months to ramp up, we’re not going to have the ability to supply the Ukrainians,” Des Roches told CNBC.

“We need to put our defense industrial base on a wartime footing,” Des Roches said. “And I don’t see any indication that we have.”

So why haven't they already started working on new production lines? The number of months (or longer) it would take wouldn't be as much of a concern if it was already started a few months ago. I know the US has made some efforts at least as of August, but not sure about the European defense industry.

It's been increasingly obvious that increased production capabilities were going to be needed for western systems, as EU countries are looking to not only replace the weapons they've donated but also increase their military power, and to also keep aid to Ukraine flowing, and a more ambiguous but probable increase in western weapon sales overall into the future as Russian systems lose credibility.

It's also worth noting here that depth of stockpiles, production capacity and logistics are going to be a bigger concern in future war plans, as many countries have seemingly adequate stocks of weapon systems, but apparently not nearly enough ammunition and other munitions to wage any kind of combat operations for longer than a few weeks. Again, it shouldn't be a question of whether to expand production capacity, but when and by how much.

And yeah, none of this is straightforward or easy to do, but it's still necessary.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

"The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine"

*Googles which companies manufacture artillery shells
*Goes to Robinhood

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

"The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine"

This article makes some fairly important errors, such as stating that the US’ 155mm production rate is 30,000 per year rather than 30,000 per month. The former would make no sense given that GMLRS annual production is about 10,000. It also claims all US howitzers not sent to Ukraine are used for training and readiness, which isn’t actually true (over 1000 M198 + M109 howitzers in storage would indicate otherwise).

Broadly speaking, it’s not that these countries are running out of weapons - it is that they may running out of weapons to send below a certain threshold of political will, which may move over time and vary greatly depending on the country in question (as we have seen with the new German PzH2000s and M270s, which were “unavailable” until they weren’t). Reserve stocks, industry capacity and arms in private hands clearly still exist in numbers which could be sent to Ukraine without compromising the readiness of certain donor countries’ armies, and even where the don’t, it is possible to draw on third parties (see: newly manufactured Iranian and Pakistani ammunition for Soviet howitzers; South Korean ammunition and spare parts to backfill Canadian stocks).

Long-term planning is important and apparently neglected by various governments when it comes to ammunition (especially MLRS munitions), but remember that MICs have an interest in implying that governments aren’t doing things for Ukraine because they need to buy and reserve more stocks from the MICs. Governments have (and have stated) other reasons to not give Ukraine a military edge.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

"The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine"

In a sense, Putin is demilitarizing NATO along with Ukraine.

While Russia has an unlimited amount of weapons and ammunition that will never be exhausted?

Difference is that Russia has switched over to partial wartime production. As the article says, the current production rate for the NATO members are in line with peacetime.

Russian military production is hindered by the fact that certain ressources, technologies, and other necessary hardware has not been exported to that country since February/March though.

But you can certainly convince me otherwise by providing us with some hard data and numbers that allow to compare current Russian arms industry output with Western arms industry output in a quantifiable manner. Can you do that please? Thanks.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

"The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine"

In a sense, Putin is demilitarizing NATO along with Ukraine.

My understanding is at least in terms of dumb artillery ammunition, the USSR built up a massive horde of mostly obsolete and workable shells.  Putin benefits from decisions the USSR made in the 1960s and 1970s.  As Stalin one says "Quantity it is own quality"

The question is whether this will be the game-changer that decides the war. That trivia alone is not providing us with any context as to how relevant (if at all) this factoid is in the bigger picture.

[Mopsus]

Unfortunately this is just delaying the inevitable as mobilization continues. Ukrainians has exhausted so much of their offensive capabilities despite it being in wartime on flatland close to the border which makes it prone to future incursions by Russia, instead of going for Kherson or the populated areas of Donetsk. And with winter coming up Russians have serious time to at least make their troops combat ready, during the end of winter/start of spring Russia will have solved the manpower problems.

A war of attrition is going to be in favor of Russia.

Because wars of attrition typically benefit the invading army, right?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Seemed relevant.

[Splash]

Meanwhile, the United States announced another $1.1 billion weapons transfer to Ukraine, including 18 additional HIMARS, which will more than double Ukraine's current capacity.

Pentagon announces an additional $1.1 billion in security assistance to Ukraine - CNN

The US Department of Defense announced an additional $1.1 billion in security assistance for Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, meaning the money will be spent to manufacture and provide new weapons to Ukraine. These weapons will not come directly from pre-existing US stocks of weapons.

Eighteen High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and “associated ammunitions,” are included in the package, the release states.

The package also includes 150 Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles, 40 trucks and 80 trailers to “transport heavy equipment,” additional radars for Unmanned Aerial Systems, among other items.

[Splash]

Also, here is a useful summary of the Pentagon's recent budget realignment, which shows that they are spending considerable sums to replenish munition stocks and increase production capacity.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1574606905363898387