Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

AFP: Putin expects 'record' 150-million-tonne grain harvest in 2022

Sounds like bad news for farm income but good news on inflation front as this will push down the price of food while export options are more limited due to sanctions. 

[jaichind]

There are leaks in Nord Stream 2.  I am sure Russia and EU/USA will start blaming each other for it soon. 

[Person Man]

How seriously should Putin's nuclear talk be taken at this point?

I have to imagine that he's bluffing. Unless he's completely off the rails, he has to know that using nuclear weapons in this case would lead to the end of his regime. Every country that has tried to be neutral on this conflict thus far (looking at the PRC and India specifically) would likely get off the sidelines and there would probably be a NATO military response. I would assume that the US would also use all covert assets in Moscow (if such assets exist) to eliminate Putin even before the "red button" is pushed. Our intelligence agencies would certainly know, before the fact, if the Muscovites were going to cross that line.

I mean, the way you make it sound, makes it sound that after the next attempt is made on Putin's life, something is about to happen.

[Person Man]

A protester read an anti-war poem in Moscow. In response, police kidnapped him and tortured him by shoving a dumb bell up his rectum. They then kidnapped his girlfriend and brought her to the next room over to hear the torture while they superglued her mouth shut and threatened her with gang rape.

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1574490380481052674

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574272320071426049?s=20&t=dVYAl_CQk...

Reminds me of the Belarussian Andrei Zeltser, who obliterated a KGB agent raiding his apartment with a shotgun. Yet another example of why an armed society is the last defense against totalitarianism.

https://twitter.com/MishaKononovich/status/1442919434050433024

Hopefully they said "no homo" before any of that. I mean, not to nitpick on this, but it sounds like there are some extreme deep-rooted psychological disturbances amongst the Russian Authorities. Not that, as an American, I will be throwing stones out of my glass house, however.

But about the armed thing. Yeah. That's what liberals don't usually get or at least what they are not ready to concede. That is, that there comes a time when armed resistance becomes necessary. Still, we still have elections here and there two important ones coming up but if worse came to worse, that's the next step. Will maybe there is a step where civil disobedience and jury nullification becomes the next line of defense, but after that, that's the next step.

So yeah. The levels of escalation against totalitarianism are - The Law, The Electoral Process, non-violent resistance, and then armed resistance.

In Eastern Europe, they made it all the way to the bottom of this list. In America, we have just exhausted #1 and now we are looking at #2.

[Virginiá]

Interesting stuff in Pentagon budget docs from early August

Lots of expenditures for replacement ammunition & weapons, but I'll post the tweets that hint at industrial expansion efforts and GMLRS usage

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1574606905363898387

Even more interesting - the Pentagon spends:
• $10,000,000 to increase 155mm ammo production at the existing plant
• $200,000,000 for a new M795 metal parts plant
• $30,000,000 for a new M795 load, assemble and pack plant
• $265,850,000 for a new propelling charges plant
5/n

• $33,000,000 to increase M739A1 fuze production
• $7,000,000 to increase M82 primer production
• $8,000,000 for 155mm production line spare parts
• $30,000,000 for a dedicated XM1113 and XM1210 production line to speed up introduction of these new projectiles
6/n

Until 12 August the Pentagon ordered $139,599,000 of GMLRS rockets. According to these Pentagon papers M31A2 rockets cost $774,750 per pod of six... so we can assume (with a margin of error) that Ukraine received around 180 pods with 1,080 rockets in July.
9/n

And the Pentagon is also increasing M142 and GMLRS production:
• $77,000,000 to procure long lead items for GMLRS
• $44,000,000 to shorten GMLRS production times
• $71,500,000 to increase M142 HIMARS production

10/n

US both expanding current 155mm artillery munitions plant and building a new one.

[Omega21]

It is now confirmed that both Nordstreams were destroyed in a sabotage attack.

This ensures that Europe cannot turn back to Russian gas in any capacity, no matter the war outcome or willingness of politicians/people. Protests demanding startups were bound to heat up soon due to unsustainable prices.

I fail to see how this would benefit Russia, unless further non RU pipes are also blown later.

Therefore, the likely culprit is...

[Middle-aged Europe]

A protester read an anti-war poem in Moscow. In response, police kidnapped him and tortured him by shoving a dumb bell up his rectum. They then kidnapped his girlfriend and brought her to the next room over to hear the torture while they superglued her mouth shut and threatened her with gang rape.

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1574490380481052674

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574272320071426049?s=20&t=dVYAl_CQk...

Reminds me of the Belarussian Andrei Zeltser, who obliterated a KGB agent raiding his apartment with a shotgun. Yet another example of why an armed society is the last defense against totalitarianism.

https://twitter.com/MishaKononovich/status/1442919434050433024

Hopefully they said "no homo" before any of that. I mean, not to nitpick on this, but it sounds like there are some extreme deep-rooted psychological disturbances amongst the Russian Authorities. Not that, as an American, I will be throwing stones out of my glass house, however.

But about the armed thing. Yeah. That's what liberals don't usually get or at least what they are not ready to concede. That is, that there comes a time when armed resistance becomes necessary. Still, we still have elections here and there two important ones coming up but if worse came to worse, that's the next step. Will maybe there is a step where civil disobedience and jury nullification becomes the next line of defense, but after that, that's the next step.

So yeah. The levels of escalation against totalitarianism are - The Law, The Electoral Process, non-violent resistance, and then armed resistance.

In Eastern Europe, they made it all the way to the bottom of this list. In America, we have just exhausted #1 and now we are looking at #2.

In most cases, a dictatorship doesn't come into existence and doesn't continue to exist if it doesn't enjoy a certain amount of popular support in the first place.

To refute an age-old argument: Most gun owners in Nazi Germany were probably supporters of the regime and if gun laws had been looser this would have only meant that there would have been even more gun owners who supported the regime.

A case could be made however that in such a situation lax gun laws would lead to civil war rather than a dictatorship that has fully consolidated its power. The net result would be that the dictatorship could last shorter, but more people could die in return.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1574714780002111489
https://twitter.com/374News/status/1574755327882436609
https://twitter.com/MayadeenEnglish/status/1574763292891009025

[Aurelius]

Lmao. Sure. They didn't even try to come up with believable numbers.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/protasm19751/status/1574698852992663552

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/374News/status/1574755327882436609

Looks like it was raining heavily in Nova Kakhovka on referendum day

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/374News/status/1574755327882436609

Looks like it was raining heavily in Nova Kakhovka on referendum day

Of course this means nothing unless he escalated things further.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1574735127913046018

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

A protester read an anti-war poem in Moscow. In response, police kidnapped him and tortured him by shoving a dumb bell up his rectum. They then kidnapped his girlfriend and brought her to the next room over to hear the torture while they superglued her mouth shut and threatened her with gang rape.

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1574490380481052674

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574272320071426049?s=20&t=dVYAl_CQk...

Reminds me of the Belarussian Andrei Zeltser, who obliterated a KGB agent raiding his apartment with a shotgun. Yet another example of why an armed society is the last defense against totalitarianism.

https://twitter.com/MishaKononovich/status/1442919434050433024

Hopefully they said "no homo" before any of that. I mean, not to nitpick on this, but it sounds like there are some extreme deep-rooted psychological disturbances amongst the Russian Authorities. Not that, as an American, I will be throwing stones out of my glass house, however.

But about the armed thing. Yeah. That's what liberals don't usually get or at least what they are not ready to concede. That is, that there comes a time when armed resistance becomes necessary. Still, we still have elections here and there two important ones coming up but if worse came to worse, that's the next step. Will maybe there is a step where civil disobedience and jury nullification becomes the next line of defense, but after that, that's the next step.

So yeah. The levels of escalation against totalitarianism are - The Law, The Electoral Process, non-violent resistance, and then armed resistance.

In Eastern Europe, they made it all the way to the bottom of this list. In America, we have just exhausted #1 and now we are looking at #2.

I don't want to derail this thread with a discussion about America, but if armed resistance is going to happen here because a totalitarian regime takes over the federal government in the future, that resistance is going to be led by state governments rather than independent armed citizens. As much as I support better gun laws in America, I can assure you I want essentially zero restrictions on what arms state governments can acquire, precisely for this reason.

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/374News/status/1574755327882436609

Incredible if true. I thought Russia would come up with plausible numbers so that gullible morons in the West could fall for it but nope. It's a ****  you, we're North Korea figure.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/374News/status/1574755327882436609

Incredible if true. I thought Russia would come up with plausible numbers so that gullible morons in the West could fall for it but nope. It's a ****  you, we're North Korea figure.

Looking for ucks for these “people” to give? YOU LOSE

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/374News/status/1574755327882436609

Incredible if true. I thought Russia would come up with plausible numbers so that gullible morons in the West could fall for it but nope. It's a ****  you, we're North Korea figure.

Looking for ucks for these “people” to give? YOU LOSE

They didn't do this for the Crimea referendum (where it's likely that a majority, even if not an overwhelming one, would have voted to join Russia in a truly free and fair referendum - certainly NOT the case here), so why would they do it now?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why not just rig it with like 60% in favor and then being able to at least pretend it's legitimate numbers?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1574659872699940868?s=20&t=vl5AtA...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1574781080170799106?s=20&t=fN8EGqHdHCy...

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1574799107465662467?s=20&t=fN8EGqHdHCy...

[bagelman]

Why not just rig it with like 60% in favor and then being able to at least pretend it's legitimate numbers?

That would imply that 40% of the population wants to remain with Ukraine. Russians ambivalent about the war would be like "What, so it's almost split 50/50? Why did my nephew have to die for this?". Russia is not a democratic culture.

[Storr]

In Putin's Russia, air defense shoots at you:

https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1574751161118171136?s=20&t=fN8EGqHd...

[Aurelius]

Why not just rig it with like 60% in favor and then being able to at least pretend it's legitimate numbers?

That would imply that 40% of the population wants to remain with Ukraine. Russians ambivalent about the war would be like "What, so it's almost split 50/50? Why did my nephew have to die for this?". Russia is not a democratic culture.

If I were Putin I'd have set the numbers at 85-90%. 98% is enough to make Saddam blush, and 60% is problematic for the reasons you said.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1574736355225214981

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1574659872699940868?s=20&t=vl5AtA...

Relatedly:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1574679574935486464?s=20&t=sZK5HV_GQ01r...