Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

Regarding the possible apparent forming of a Ukrainian noose around Lyman, just as a reminder, per an NYT article of yesterday, the bulk of Putin's generals wanted to retreat from Lyman and environs and from Kherson, to avoid the risk of encirclement, but Putin vetoed that.  He does not want to lose any more territory. Period. Been there done that.

If the noose is formed, one would hope the encircled Russians, now safe from Putin's control,  would instantly surrender, and if their officers say no, just frag them. We shall see. It would be grand if they do surrender en mass, including the officers, ask for asylum, and then they tell all about what it is like fighting for Putin. And I hope that US and UK are doing what they can to make the twin nooses happen. I have a dream.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1574035957266800640?s=20&t=N0LTEp1-sKB...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1574035957266800640?s=20&t=N0LTEp1-sKB...

Said earlier protests. Shockingly the crowd doesn't seem very scared of the policeman's AK shots into the air and it only makes them angrier. (Who could have seen that coming?!):

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1573984369710080001?s=20&t=N0LTEp1-sK...

https://twitter.com/_A_Vit_/status/1574007753194065921?s=20&t=N0LTEp1-sKBYX_...

[jaichind]

Russi State Duma Deputy Vitaly Milonov it seems is part of the mobilization and will become an artilleryman in Donbass.  He is famous for his Orthodox Christian fundamentalism and anti-LGBT positions.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olaf-scholz-gas-deal-united-arab-emirates-human-rights-gulf-energy-crisis/

"Germany’s Scholz inks gas deal with United Arab Emirates"

It seems what Scholz got was a single LNG load due in December and note a non-binding memorandum for more and yet unspecified deliveries sometime in 2023.  It is primarily a drop in a bucket but I guess it is something.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/globalsarang/status/1574082821156634625

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1574085103877341185

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-receives-us-air-defence-system-2022-09-25/

[NOVA Green]

A few items of interest not already covered regarding the Russian Anti-War Movement since the "partial" mobilization was announced:

With road traffic surging at border points leading out of Russia since Wednesday and airline tickets sold out for days, many would-be protesters may have left the country. On Saturday, the local branch of the interior ministry in the republic of North Ossetia said 2,300 vehicles were backed up at a border crossing waiting to get into neighboring Georgia.

Others appear to have taken more radical steps. Since Wednesday, 10 military recruitment centers and government buildings across the country have been set ablaze, according to a tally by Holod, an independent Russian media outlet.

Underground meetings where opposition-minded Russians discuss resistance strategies have also sprouted up in at least a dozen cities around the country, according to activists. One such meeting on a recent evening in Moscow brought together about 30 people in a basement of an apartment building. The group discussed how to break through to relatives who support the war. They also exchanged ideas about inconspicuous symbols that could be worn to signal opposition to the conflict, and gave advice to the teachers present about how to maintain frank conversations with students without being fired or jailed.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russians-seek-to-mount-resistance-to-putin-as-mobilization-gears-up-11664054571?mod=hp_lead_pos8

[Hindsight was 2020]

Apparently with Putin making military decisions again he has ordered a defend until the last man order to the troops in Lyman. A absolutely moronic choice with Ukraine close to encircling the city

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1574100889832398851
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1574011243089854469

[Aurelius]

Apparently with Putin making military decisions again he has ordered a defend until the last man order to the troops in Lyman. A absolutely moronic choice with Ukraine close to encircling the city

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1574100889832398851
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1574011243089854469

He really is just gonna use the mobiks as cannon fodder, isn't he.

A tried and true Russian strategy!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Apparently with Putin making military decisions again he has ordered a defend until the last man order to the troops in Lyman. A absolutely moronic choice with Ukraine close to encircling the city

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1574100889832398851
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1574011243089854469

I suppose Lyman defenders will probably give up sooner than the Mariupol defenders. What's in for a Russian soldier to die senselessly for Putin, anyway?

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/DemeryUK/status/1574163858352218112

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1574133996967034881

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently with Putin making military decisions again he has ordered a defend until the last man order to the troops in Lyman. A absolutely moronic choice with Ukraine close to encircling the city

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1574100889832398851
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1574011243089854469

I didn't think Putin was THIS high off the WWII nostalgia Copium.

There are so many differences between the situations that digging out tactics that worked in a war of extermination will have the same success as arming soldiers in that era's weapons.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1574133996967034881

News Flash at 11 PM: "Russian Kremlin Leaders Lie".

But seriously, in their apparent need to "pleasure Putin", the way these mobilizations are being carried out by the various regional Governors of the "United Russia Party" is if anything the major cause of the revival of the Russian Anti-War movement, to the point that even far right Russian Nationalists on State TV are even criticizing "how the mobilization" was carried out.

[AndyHogan14]

snip

I'm seeing scattered posts (some with videos) on protests in Dagestan as well. It would make sense that the people there would be 1) targeted for mobilization and 2) vehemently opposed to mobilization considering that the population is only around 3-4% ethnic Russian. Would love to finally see some *real* domestic pushback in Russia and it certainly is not going to come from the ethnic Russians.

[GeneralMacArthur]

So to be clear, Putin's mobilizing an army that's poorly-fit, poorly-trained, poorly-equipped, incredibly low morale, not cohesive at all, and sending them into battle in a war he's already losing, to fight suicidal last-stand battles based on a strategy that Putin himself pulled out of his ass?

Bring it on lol

[HillGoose]

gotta hope some of these "conscripts" aka slaves for vlad the demon go full revolt on the russkie govt kidnappers coming to take them to this insane war

[NOVA Green]

snip

I'm seeing scattered posts (some with videos) on protests in Dagestan as well. It would make sense that the people there would be 1) targeted for mobilization and 2) vehemently opposed to mobilization considering that the population is only around 3-4% ethnic Russian. Would love to finally see some *real* domestic pushback in Russia and it certainly is not going to come from the ethnic Russians.

Well then what do you call the thousands of Anti-War protesters arrested in Moscow and St. Pete then if not "Ethnic Russian"?

Still, generally agree with what I suspect your post intended to state regarding why massive protests are breaking out in certain ethnic populations who had to deal with not only Catherine but then Stalin later on.....

Putin and his fellow elites in the Kremlin and FSB have been *very* careful when it comes to mass mobilizations in Moscow and Leningrad (St. Pete).

[AndyHogan14]

snip

I'm seeing scattered posts (some with videos) on protests in Dagestan as well. It would make sense that the people there would be 1) targeted for mobilization and 2) vehemently opposed to mobilization considering that the population is only around 3-4% ethnic Russian. Would love to finally see some *real* domestic pushback in Russia and it certainly is not going to come from the ethnic Russians.

Well then what do you call the thousands of Anti-War protesters arrested in Moscow and St. Pete then if not "Ethnic Russian"?

Still, generally agree with what I suspect your post intended to state regarding why massive protests are breaking out in certain ethnic populations who had to deal with not only Catherine but then Stalin later on.....

Putin and his fellow elites in the Kremlin and FSB have been *very* careful when it comes to mass mobilizations in Moscow and Leningrad (St. Pete).

A mere sprinkling. The protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg are quite pathetic (and telling of where the Russian mindset is) when you consider the size of those cities. I don't discount the few that have gone out to protest, but most of their fellow Russians are either cowards, indifferent, or supportive of their nation's war.

[Virginiá]

I don't even understand why Russia would want to send untrained civilians into battle. They are far more likely to be a liability than anything else, and a waste of resources. Even people assigned to administrative & logistical jobs need some basic training, particularly when they are regularly losing not-insignificant patches of territory to the AFU's frenzied thrusting into Russia's rear (occupied areas)

[Virginiá]

Cautiously optimistic but need confirmation on this

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1574200167959494657

[Frodo]

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1574227785584988160

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/Lex_pl/status/1573349079014326276