Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Maybe at some point Chechnya will no longer be a Russian vassal with a Fraggle Rock muppet for a "President". But yeah, those kids won't last long.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1573024762170933249?s=20&t=EA8UrpJ7...

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-releases-10-foreigners-captured-ukraine-after-saudi-mediation-riyadh-2022-09-21/

"Russia, Ukraine announce major surprise prisoner swap"

It seems it is 215 for 55

Rybar says that Russia got back in addition to Medvechuk.


It seems Ukraine got back from foreign fighters plus some from the Azov battalion plus some other regular soliders.

This prisoner exchange is viewed very negatively in Russia itself.  The mood seems to be "why make these Azov guys out to be devils and put them on trial only to let them go.  What was the point of putting them on trial" OR "these Azov guys are the devil, how can you let them go and not pay for their crimes?"

My impression is that Russia did this to please Turkey and Saudi Arabia who worked to broker this deal.

[President Johnson]

More arrests in Russia.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1572987336140414978

[Storr]

Maybe at some point Chechnya will no longer be a Russian vassal with a Fraggle Rock muppet for a "President". But yeah, those kids won't last long.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1573024762170933249?s=20&t=EA8UrpJ7...

Fits with this (claimed legitimate) Chechen conscription/mobilization list which has men born in 2001-03 (mostly 2003) on it:

https://twitter.com/chechenvisuals/status/1572865420197068801?s=20&t=GqySv1L...

[Storr]

It's significant Kadyrov admitted there was a protest. He has always previously claimed there is no opposition in Chechnya.

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1573037328804847617?s=20&t=E378mBa822w...

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/yellen-says-russia-offering-enormous-discounts-oil-china-india-2022-09-22/

"Yellen says Russia offering 'enormous discounts' on oil to China, India"

What Yellen is saying is clearly deceptive.  Russia is selling energy at a deep discount relative to a price that assumes the absence of Russian energy.  The world energy market is really two markets, a market with Russian energy and another where Russian energy is artificially removed.  It is clear the first market's prices will be a lot lower than the second market.

One way to tell is

https://www.anews.com.tr/economy/2022/09/23/russias-gazprom-reports-higher-revenues-despite-reduction-in-exports

"Russia's Gazprom reports higher revenues despite reduction in export"

Where Gazprom revenue is up 34% relative to what was budgeted for.

One interesting quote from the Yellen article is

Europe was facing a tough winter with tight energy supplies as it decoupled from Russian energy, Yellen said. She said that could have some spillover effects on the United States, but she "wouldn't exaggerate" the potential impact on U.S. growth.

Which is basically

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/751bb231-2dd1-4c33-85ec-9465f3ce85fe

"Energy crunch threatens to shatter European unity, warns IEA boss"

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Adviser to the Ukrainian President says POWs who do not want to be repatriated will not be:

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1572979165791412225

[GeneralMacArthur]

I'm trying to think of another time a country has instituted "partial" or total mobilization several months into a war due to losing on the battlefield. Does anyone know of another example of this?

I mean this is basically the story of WW1 in every European country.  100,000 boys died in the Somme this month?  That's ok we'll just conscript 100,000 more.  By the end of the war, Germany was sending little children and grandpas to the front lines.

The war didn't end because the German high command gave up or decided to surrender.  The war ended because the people of Germany organized mass strikes at ports and factories, blockaded highways, etc. and the German leadership realized that ending the war was probably the only way to stop a complete economic collapse and subsequent Bolshevik revolution.  It will have to be the same in Russia.  Putin will never end this war.  The Russian people must end it.  Surely sanctions have given them the motivation, but if not, having their boys stolen from them and sent to their deaths for a lie ought to do it.

The Soviet Union seemed invincible at one point.  In 1978, Michael Hart wrote The 100:  A Ranking of the Most Influential Persons in History and included several prominent Soviet Union figures, with the assumption that the empire would last for centuries.  A little over a decade later, it ended, and not with some grand war or nuclear standoff but with strikes and protests followed by a simple little coup in Red Square.  It may seem that Putin is invincible, that Russia is permanently stuck in its current state, that change is impossible.  But when it does happen, it will seem so simple.

I recommended your post, and normally leave it at that, but in this case I also wanted you to know that I found your post extraordinarily well written, almost lyrical really. Thank you.

Thank you! 

[NOVA Green]

More arrests in Russia.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1572987336140414978

So to go to OVD-Info we get a more detailed breakdown of arrests arising from the recent surge in "mass" anti-war demonstrations in Russia:

(Once you go the webpage on Google it will ask if you want it translated into English).

Here are a few snippets from cities in Russia:

Moscow
At least 538 detainees. There are beaten, one girl lost consciousness during the arrest. Some of the detainees had their phones taken away. There are isolated cases of preventive detentions using the facial recognition system in the subway. Information was received from 15 police departments that the detainees were handed summons to the military registration and enlistment office. In the Falcon Mountain police department, one of the detainees was threatened with a criminal case and a term of ten years for refusing to receive a summons.

St. Petersburg
At least 479 detainees. In the northern capital, phones were taken away, people were pulled out of the coupling, put on their knees during detention, and taken in overcrowded paddy wagons. There are beaten.

Yekaterinburg
At least 49 detainees. One of the detainees is a former paratrooper who came out with a poster with Salvador Dali's painting "The Face of War".

https://ovd.news/news/2022/09/22/zhestkie-zaderzhaniya-i-povestki-v-voenkomat-itogi-akciy-protiv-mobilizacii-21

Here is a link from OVF-Info to some of the human rights violation for the anti-war detainees and a quote just from a recent update from some of those arrested in St. Petersburg to give you a flavor.

Detainees at a rally against mobilization in St. Petersburg spoke about violations:

📍In police station No. 3, the detainees spent the night six of them on the same bench. The security forces poured them some tap water and did not provide them with food. despite promises. The detainees were asked to sign a blank document and were photographed three times.

📍In OP No. 17, the security forces were rude to the detainees. According to activists, some of the policemen were drunk.

📍 In the Vasileostrovskiy Court, those involved were locked up in the courtroom. Some of them did not eat for more than a day, the meeting lasts more than five hours.

https://ovd.news/news/2022/09/22/sudy-i-drugoe-davlenie-na-uchastnikov-akciy-protiv-mobilizacii

[Virginiá]

Honestly it's a little irritating to read that western tanks are indeed "on the table" but for now Soviet tanks are the easiest to deploy quickly, when in fact very few western powers, if any aside from Poland, and to a limited degree Germany/Czech (via it's "ring" exchange program), are actually providing any main battle tanks whatsoever.

Poland provided ~230 tanks at the beginning, and it's speculated they will be sending the rest (another 230 - 300) of their T-72 variants over when the first 180 tanks from their massive South Korean arms deal arrives sometime in the next few months, but other than that and the 28 modernized T-55 tanks, where exactly are the rest coming from? There are no easy Soviet tanks to "quickly" deploy. All the countries that have them don't want to give them up without 1:1 replacements or similarly lucrative exchanges. In terms of vehicles, it's been months of lightly armored M113s, IMVs (infantry mobility vehicles - like Humvees, MRAPS, etc), and IFVs like the BMP, which are just not the same as a tank.

Russia's mobilization may indeed fall apart or at least fail to achieve their strategic goals, but it's going to cause a lot more death and destruction before any of that happens, and if the west is serious about providing Ukraine with more military aid, now is the time.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573097026245500928

[Virginiá]

How do you know Sir W that those tanks are still in existence as opposed to having been blown to kingdom come by a nice big accurate missile given to Ukraine as a most special present by NATO?

 

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1573012679953981440

[Storr]

Russian tank reinforcements

https://twitter.com/ahmetmutt1/status/1573018991656075264

Reservists from Dagestan

https://twitter.com/strakovic151/status/1573020367270346752

Also in Dagestan:

https://twitter.com/InsiderEng/status/1573037261368737792?s=20&t=oNtN_Z1LCBU...

[NOVA Green]

So not sure if anybody out here has more detailed info of *where* the draft notices are hitting hardest, but saw this snippet thus far from the NYT:

Reports of large numbers of men receiving draft notices arrived from across the country, but regions in Siberia and in the largely Muslim Caucasus Mountains appeared to be among the hardest hit.

On social media, activists in regions like Kabardino-Balkaria in the Caucasus and Yakutia in northeastern Siberia kept a running tally of the summonses that had arrived in various villages. A woman who has already lost one son in the war told a New York Times reporter that three buses carrying newly mobilized soldiers had left her town in Dagestan, in the Caucasus, one of Russia’s poorest regions.

A regional activist in Yakutsk, the capital of the Yakutia region, described draftees being taken by airplane out of remote Arctic villages. “They have planted panic and fear everywhere,” she said in a phone interview, asking that her name be withheld for fear of retribution.

Also reports regarding protests in more remote regions of Russia:

In the city of Baksan in the North Caucasus region of Kabardino-Balkaria, more than a hundred people gathered near the city administration to protest the conscription of their loved ones, said a local activist who asked that his name be withheld for his security.

“Kabardino-Balkaria, like the rest of Russia, woke up yesterday in horror,” Ibragim Yaganov, an activist from the region who is now in Poland, told The Times. “The war, which was somewhere far away on TV, suddenly came to people’s homes.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/22/world/europe/putin-russia-military-ukraine-war.html

[Storr]

It's significant Kadyrov admitted there was a protest. He has always previously claimed there is no opposition in Chechnya.

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1573037328804847617?s=20&t=E378mBa822w...

Now Kadyrov is claiming there won't be a mobilization in Chechnya. I'm sure this is completely unrelated to the mothers protesting in Grozny last night:

from the google translation of his Telegram post:

"The conscription plan in the Chechen Republic was overfulfilled by 254 percent. Such indicators were achieved earlier due to the formation of new units of the RF Ministry of Defense. All candidates for service went through the Military Commissariat. We worked out this mechanism from the very beginning, even before the announcement of partial mobilization.

In addition, the republic has a reserve of thousands of volunteers who, if necessary, will be able to join the ranks of the defenders of the Fatherland. Residents did not even suspect that such issues might arise, but we have already decided everything. Therefore, I call on the population of the Chechen Republic, in particular, our beloved and respected mothers, to remain calm."

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1573060720425590787?s=20&t=oNtN_Z1L...

[It’s so Joever]

Wouldn’t it be funny if Russia manages to lose Chechnya from this?

[Storr]

I'm mostly sharing this because the men military that show up at the everyman's front door, dab.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1573138794513047552?s=20&t=YaUfAmlQ...

Also the presence of a black dude is a not very subtle suggestion that "if you don't vote for Putin there will be black people in Russia".

[Badger]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/yellen-says-russia-offering-enormous-discounts-oil-china-india-2022-09-22/

"Yellen says Russia offering 'enormous discounts' on oil to China, India"

What Yellen is saying is clearly deceptive.  Russia is selling energy at a deep discount relative to a price that assumes the absence of Russian energy.  The world energy market is really two markets, a market with Russian energy and another where Russian energy is artificially removed.  It is clear the first market's prices will be a lot lower than the second market.

One way to tell is

https://www.anews.com.tr/economy/2022/09/23/russias-gazprom-reports-higher-revenues-despite-reduction-in-exports

"Russia's Gazprom reports higher revenues despite reduction in export"

Where Gazprom revenue is up 34% relative to what was budgeted for.

One interesting quote from the Yellen article is

Europe was facing a tough winter with tight energy supplies as it decoupled from Russian energy, Yellen said. She said that could have some spillover effects on the United States, but she "wouldn't exaggerate" the potential impact on U.S. growth.

Which is basically

You really do type these updates with one hand don't you?

[2952-0-0]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/yellen-says-russia-offering-enormous-discounts-oil-china-india-2022-09-22/

"Yellen says Russia offering 'enormous discounts' on oil to China, India"

What Yellen is saying is clearly deceptive.  Russia is selling energy at a deep discount relative to a price that assumes the absence of Russian energy.  The world energy market is really two markets, a market with Russian energy and another where Russian energy is artificially removed.  It is clear the first market's prices will be a lot lower than the second market.

One way to tell is

https://www.anews.com.tr/economy/2022/09/23/russias-gazprom-reports-higher-revenues-despite-reduction-in-exports

"Russia's Gazprom reports higher revenues despite reduction in export"

Where Gazprom revenue is up 34% relative to what was budgeted for.

One interesting quote from the Yellen article is

Europe was facing a tough winter with tight energy supplies as it decoupled from Russian energy, Yellen said. She said that could have some spillover effects on the United States, but she "wouldn't exaggerate" the potential impact on U.S. growth.

Meanwhile, in the real world...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/economy/russia-economy-budget-hole/index.html

Russian business daily Vedomosti reported Wednesday, citing sources close to the government, that the finance ministry had told government agencies they would need to cut spending by 10% in 2023. Defense spending, however, was set to rise, Vedomosti quoted one source close to the defense ministry as saying.

[NOVA Green]

Washington Post article regarding US messaging sent to Russia regarding use of Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine...

Few snips from much longer article...

The United States for several months has been sending private communications to Moscow warning Russia’s leadership of the grave consequences that would follow the use of a nuclear weapon, according to U.S. officials, who said the messages underscore what President Biden and his aides have articulated publicly.

The Biden administration generally has decided to keep warnings about the consequences of a nuclear strike deliberately vague, so the Kremlin worries about how Washington might respond, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive deliberations.

The attempt by the White House to cultivate what’s known in the nuclear deterrence world as “strategic ambiguity” comes as Russia continues to escalate its rhetoric about possible nuclear weapons use amid a domestic mobilization aimed at stanching Russian military losses in eastern Ukraine.

The State Department has been involved in the private communications with Moscow, but officials would not say who delivered the messages or the scope of their content. It was not clear whether the United States had sent any new private messages in the hours since Russian President Vladimir Putin issued his latest veiled nuclear threat during a speech announcing a partial mobilization early Wednesday, but a senior U.S. official said the communication has been happening consistently over recent months.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/22/russia-nuclear-threat-us-options/

[NOVA Green]

WaPo has a few items of interest in their coverage today regarding popular resistance against the Russian "Mobilization / Stop-Loss style policies".

But there were other signs of increased public pushback against Putin and his war, despite the Kremlin’s harsh crackdown on dissent.

In the city of Togliatti, a local military recruitment office was set on fire, one of dozens of similar attacks across Russia in recent months.

Russia’s war hawks on the far right, meanwhile, had a different cause for fury: a prisoner exchange that freed commanders from Ukraine’s controversial Azov Regiment, long branded by Russia as “Nazis.” They were swapped for dozens of prisoners held in Ukraine, including Viktor Medvedchuk, reputed to be Putin’s closest Ukrainian friend and the leader of the country’s main pro-Kremlin political party.

The dual backlash over mobilization and the prisoner exchange showed Putin facing his most acute crisis since he launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Not only is his country grappling with punishing economic sanctions imposed by the West, but his military has suffered dramatic setbacks, including an embarrassing retreat from the northeastern Kharkiv region.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/22/mobilization-putin-anger-russia-war/

[Woody]

The referendums are now taking place (23-27) after they are done it will take 1-5 days to tally the votes, after that the Russian Duma has said they would swiftly take the new Oblasts in.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Ghost132607472/status/1573057708005232641

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Ghost132607472/status/1573057708005232641

That man's car looks a bit battered.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/yellen-says-russia-offering-enormous-discounts-oil-china-india-2022-09-22/

"Yellen says Russia offering 'enormous discounts' on oil to China, India"

What Yellen is saying is clearly deceptive.  Russia is selling energy at a deep discount relative to a price that assumes the absence of Russian energy.  The world energy market is really two markets, a market with Russian energy and another where Russian energy is artificially removed.  It is clear the first market's prices will be a lot lower than the second market.

One way to tell is

https://www.anews.com.tr/economy/2022/09/23/russias-gazprom-reports-higher-revenues-despite-reduction-in-exports

"Russia's Gazprom reports higher revenues despite reduction in export"

Where Gazprom revenue is up 34% relative to what was budgeted for.

One interesting quote from the Yellen article is

Europe was facing a tough winter with tight energy supplies as it decoupled from Russian energy, Yellen said. She said that could have some spillover effects on the United States, but she "wouldn't exaggerate" the potential impact on U.S. growth.

Which is basically

You really do type these updates with one hand don't you?

Does jaichind truly believe that people are gonna freeze to death or was this meant as a figure of speech?