Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1572965362198609926

Source and link:

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1572955284041248768?s=20&t=PJR9hprlz...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1572967331550339073

[Splash]

War is unpredictable but the Russian defense of Lyman may be untenable. They are flanked by the Ukrainians on three sides and it now seems that their rear is exposed. I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to "regroup" soon if the Ukrainians can capitalize on their (unconfirmed) breakthrough.

Also:

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1572969458112544770

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1572953405051609089

[2952-0-0]

Balakliia #2

[Torie]

The Ukrainian neo-Nazi totalitarian regime born of the 2014 coup d’etat having become an anti-Russian staging ground is committing cultural genocide of Russians, their Nazi soldiers committing the crime of torturing Russian soldiers, shelling the nuclear plant even while the inspectors were there, and using civilians as human shields, yet this council does nothing, and has proven itself useless. Just in case you missed it, Nazi, Nazi, Nazi, Nazi. Any questions?

Yes, I think the guy used the word Nazi about five times.

[Insert projection quote pyramid here.]

The most excoriative speeches of Russia were made by the twin tough sisters from Albania and Ghana. Nobody said anything nice about Russia. The best they got was the China guy talking incoherently about nothing at all. The Indian guy wants the war to end immediately.

[Storr]

War is unpredictable but the Russian defense of Lyman may be untenable. They are flanked by the Ukrainians on three sides and it now seems that their rear is exposed. I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to "regroup" soon if the Ukrainians can capitalize on their (unconfirmed) breakthrough.

Also:

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1572969458112544770

https://twitter.com/phinp/status/1572972551126790144?s=20&t=ifPT5_eQMpMv3N4S...

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1572985692099317760

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1572985692099317760

In December 1941, Adolf Hitler took direct command of the German Army. Look how that turned out..

[jaichind]

The prisoner exchange deal which will also release some Azov commanders are interesting . They will be let go by Russia not to Ukraine but will go to Turkey and spend the rest of the war there.  It reminds me of a lot of deals in European wars in the 1600s and 1700s where many POWs are let go after taking an oath that they will no longer fight in the current war.

[Storr]

I'm trying to think of another time a country has instituted "partial" or total mobilization several months into a war due to losing on the battlefield. Does anyone know of another example of this?

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1572969315829272579?s=20&t=t2k1y8-5EAwvxM...

[jaichind]

I'm trying to think of another time a country has instituted "partial" or total mobilization several months into a war due to losing on the battlefield. Does anyone know of another example of this?
 

Most obvious example of this which was always the model I had for this war is the USA Civil War.  The Union side expected a quick victory which were dashed.  Then after that it was really a escalation of mobilization on both sides which a decision was only reached when one side was completely exhausted after a long attritional war. 

[GeneralMacArthur]

I'm trying to think of another time a country has instituted "partial" or total mobilization several months into a war due to losing on the battlefield. Does anyone know of another example of this?

I mean this is basically the story of WW1 in every European country.  100,000 boys died in the Somme this month?  That's ok we'll just conscript 100,000 more.  By the end of the war, Germany was sending little children and grandpas to the front lines.

The war didn't end because the German high command gave up or decided to surrender.  The war ended because the people of Germany organized mass strikes at ports and factories, blockaded highways, etc. and the German leadership realized that ending the war was probably the only way to stop a complete economic collapse and subsequent Bolshevik revolution.  It will have to be the same in Russia.  Putin will never end this war.  The Russian people must end it.  Surely sanctions have given them the motivation, but if not, having their boys stolen from them and sent to their deaths for a lie ought to do it.

The Soviet Union seemed invincible at one point.  In 1978, Michael Hart wrote The 100:  A Ranking of the Most Influential Persons in History and included several prominent Soviet Union figures, with the assumption that the empire would last for centuries.  A little over a decade later, it ended, and not with some grand war or nuclear standoff but with strikes and protests followed by a simple little coup in Red Square.  It may seem that Putin is invincible, that Russia is permanently stuck in its current state, that change is impossible.  But when it does happen, it will seem so simple.

[Person Man]

I'm trying to think of another time a country has instituted "partial" or total mobilization several months into a war due to losing on the battlefield. Does anyone know of another example of this?

I mean this is basically the story of WW1 in every European country.  100,000 boys died in the Somme this month?  That's ok we'll just conscript 100,000 more.  By the end of the war, Germany was sending little children and grandpas to the front lines.

The war didn't end because the German high command gave up or decided to surrender.  The war ended because the people of Germany organized mass strikes at ports and factories, blockaded highways, etc. and the German leadership realized that ending the war was probably the only way to stop a complete economic collapse and subsequent Bolshevik revolution.  It will have to be the same in Russia.  Putin will never end this war.  The Russian people must end it.  Surely sanctions have given them the motivation, but if not, having their boys stolen from them and sent to their deaths for a lie ought to do it.

The Soviet Union seemed invincible at one point.  In 1978, Michael Hart wrote The 100:  A Ranking of the Most Influential Persons in History and included several prominent Soviet Union figures, with the assumption that the empire would last for centuries.  A little over a decade later, it ended, and not with some grand war or nuclear standoff but with strikes and protests followed by a simple little coup in Red Square.  It may seem that Putin is invincible, that Russia is permanently stuck in its current state, that change is impossible.  But when it does happen, it will seem so simple.

That’s great but it should be tempered with the reality of the history between then and now. I mean there was 1918 but then there was 1933 and 1939. Eventually there was a 1945. Now that’s a war that was ended on the battlefield.

[jaichind]

The war didn't end because the German high command gave up or decided to surrender.  The war ended because the people of Germany organized mass strikes at ports and factories, blockaded highways, etc. and the German leadership realized that ending the war was probably the only way to stop a complete economic collapse and subsequent Bolshevik revolution.  It will have to be the same in Russia.  Putin will never end this war.  The Russian people must end it.  Surely sanctions have given them the motivation, but if not, having their boys stolen from them and sent to their deaths for a lie ought to do it.

I mostly disagree with this.  Germany lost WWI because it was defeated on the battlefield. That was very clear by Oct 1918.  The German High command knew this but decided to dump that decision on the civilian leadership claiming a breakdown on the home front made it impossible to fight the war.  It was this cleaver trick by the German military that actually feed the Hitler narrative of "stab in the back" which was clearly not what took place.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The war didn't end because the German high command gave up or decided to surrender.  The war ended because the people of Germany organized mass strikes at ports and factories, blockaded highways, etc. and the German leadership realized that ending the war was probably the only way to stop a complete economic collapse and subsequent Bolshevik revolution.  It will have to be the same in Russia.  Putin will never end this war.  The Russian people must end it.  Surely sanctions have given them the motivation, but if not, having their boys stolen from them and sent to their deaths for a lie ought to do it.

I mostly disagree with this.  Germany lost WWI because it was defeated on the battlefield. That was very clear by Oct 1918.  The German High command knew this but decided to dump that decision on the civilian leadership claiming a breakdown on the home front made it impossible to fight the war.  It was this cleaver trick by the German military that actually feed the Hitler narrative of "stab in the back" which was clearly not what took place.

Right, well, they were defeated on the battlefield and that defeat on the battlefield led to demographic and economic collapse at home, which led to mass unrest and eventually the end of the war.

Russia's got defeat on the battlefield, it's quickly leading to demographic and economic collapse, and we're starting to see the seeds of mass unrest.

[Storr]

I'm trying to think of another time a country has instituted "partial" or total mobilization several months into a war due to losing on the battlefield. Does anyone know of another example of this?

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1572969315829272579?s=20&t=t2k1y8-5EAwvxM...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573003025807192066?s=20&t=ECO9z2RLmvOHz3...

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1572967331550339073

more maps:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1573007674110779394?s=20&t=536gzpfNyAgGyF...

[DINGO Joe]

Some stylish top tier trolling here

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1572947574016933888

[Storr]

I see Russia is going to provide its mobilized men with only the most modern equipment:

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1573011302464856065?s=20&t=bi3HY0WUo...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1572873174085148674
https://twitter.com/Igsdelija1398/status/1573017129728843777
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1572972105867874304

[Woody]

Russian tank reinforcements

https://twitter.com/ahmetmutt1/status/1573018991656075264

Reservists from Dagestan

https://twitter.com/strakovic151/status/1573020367270346752

[Torie]

How do you know Sir W that those tanks are still in existence as opposed to having been blown to kingdom come by a nice big accurate missile given to Ukraine as a most special present by NATO?

[jaichind]

I'm trying to think of another time a country has instituted "partial" or total mobilization several months into a war due to losing on the battlefield. Does anyone know of another example of this?

Another one would be 1968 USSR invasion of Czechoslovakia which actually involved over 500K USSR troops.  I believe there was a USSR mobilization needed to get the needed troops to carry this out without impacting their other military commitments.   

[jaichind]

My understanding of this Russian mobilization is more like calling up the National Guard to take over positions within Russia of regular unites which could then could be deployed to Ukraine.  I suspect some of them will also be asked to take up positions behind the front or positions that Russia deemed to be "quite" and where Russia's posture is defensive.  I really doubt these units will be asked to take the offensive.  That will be done by other more trained units that these mobilized units will displace in their current role.

I guess in the meantime, other than the Bakhmut offensive, Russia will take a defensive posture to inflict losses on Ukraine while they carry out offensives to try to disrupt the referendums and before the Russian reinforcements show up.

[Torie]

I'm trying to think of another time a country has instituted "partial" or total mobilization several months into a war due to losing on the battlefield. Does anyone know of another example of this?

I mean this is basically the story of WW1 in every European country.  100,000 boys died in the Somme this month?  That's ok we'll just conscript 100,000 more.  By the end of the war, Germany was sending little children and grandpas to the front lines.

The war didn't end because the German high command gave up or decided to surrender.  The war ended because the people of Germany organized mass strikes at ports and factories, blockaded highways, etc. and the German leadership realized that ending the war was probably the only way to stop a complete economic collapse and subsequent Bolshevik revolution.  It will have to be the same in Russia.  Putin will never end this war.  The Russian people must end it.  Surely sanctions have given them the motivation, but if not, having their boys stolen from them and sent to their deaths for a lie ought to do it.

The Soviet Union seemed invincible at one point.  In 1978, Michael Hart wrote The 100:  A Ranking of the Most Influential Persons in History and included several prominent Soviet Union figures, with the assumption that the empire would last for centuries.  A little over a decade later, it ended, and not with some grand war or nuclear standoff but with strikes and protests followed by a simple little coup in Red Square.  It may seem that Putin is invincible, that Russia is permanently stuck in its current state, that change is impossible.  But when it does happen, it will seem so simple.

I recommended your post, and normally leave it at that, but in this case I also wanted you to know that I found your post extraordinarily well written, almost lyrical really. Thank you.