Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[windjammer]

Frankly,
Even the most optimistic people were not expecting that.


Russia is really so incompetent.

[jaichind]

Russian sources show even more Ukrainian adavances.  The main risk here for Russia is that Izyum could become isolated which pretty much upends the entire Russian strategy in Donbass.  This defeat could cost Russia months off its scheduled advance into the rest of Donbass that was to take place.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russian sources show even more Ukrainian adavances.  The main risk here for Russia is that Izyum could become isolated which pretty much upends the entire Russian strategy in Donbass.  This defeat could cost Russia months off its scheduled advance into the rest of Donbass that was to take place.

I want to believe, but I've stopped paying attention to what Rybar says. He used to be more reliable than other Russian Telegram sources, but ever since the Kherson offensive, he has been putting out way too much information to be credible - I think he sees himself as some kind of content creator who must have a steady output, and therefore posts dreck online even when his sources aren't reporting it.

He reported specific details of a back-and-forth in Kherson which practically nobody else got word of and claimed Ukraine was employing weapons it almost certainly doesn't have. Even if it did, pictures of these or claims from other sources (even Russian ones) should have emerged - but they didn't. It's very unlikely Finland gave up any of its Marksman anti-aircraft guns (there are only seven in existence and they're not in production anymore), and the same goes for the Leopard 2A4/2A6 tanks which Rybar also alleged came from Germany or Spain.

These maps have popped up a lot over the past two weeks and probably boosted his Telegram following, and that's a big part of why I don't trust them at all.

[jaichind]

I want to believe, but I've stopped paying attention to what Rybar says. He used to be more reliable than other Russian Telegram sources, but ever since the Kherson offensive, he has been putting out way too much information to be credible - I think he sees himself as some kind of content creator who must have a steady output, and therefore posts dreck online even when his sources aren't reporting it.

He reported specific details of a back-and-forth in Kherson which practically nobody else got word of and claimed Ukraine was employing weapons it almost certainly doesn't have. Even if it did, pictures of these or claims from other sources (even Russian ones) should have emerged - but they didn't. It's very unlikely Finland gave up any of its Marksman anti-aircraft guns (there are only seven in existence and they're not in production anymore), and the same goes for the Leopard 2A4/2A6 tanks which Rybar also alleged came from Germany or Spain.

These maps have popped up a lot over the past two weeks and probably boosted his Telegram following, and that's a big part of why I don't trust them at all.

My understanding is that  Rybar is supposed to be a consortium of Russian reporters at the front.  I think there are a lot of Russian reports in the Donbass and Kharkov sectors of the front whereas there are very few of them in the Kherson area (reflecting where Russia feels are the critical fronts).  So in theory Rybar should be more accurate in  Donbass and Kharkov parts of the front and could be hit or miss in the Kherson areas.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I want to believe, but I've stopped paying attention to what Rybar says. He used to be more reliable than other Russian Telegram sources, but ever since the Kherson offensive, he has been putting out way too much information to be credible - I think he sees himself as some kind of content creator who must have a steady output, and therefore posts dreck online even when his sources aren't reporting it.

He reported specific details of a back-and-forth in Kherson which practically nobody else got word of and claimed Ukraine was employing weapons it almost certainly doesn't have. Even if it did, pictures of these or claims from other sources (even Russian ones) should have emerged - but they didn't. It's very unlikely Finland gave up any of its Marksman anti-aircraft guns (there are only seven in existence and they're not in production anymore), and the same goes for the Leopard 2A4/2A6 tanks which Rybar also alleged came from Germany or Spain.

These maps have popped up a lot over the past two weeks and probably boosted his Telegram following, and that's a big part of why I don't trust them at all.

My understanding is that  Rybar is supposed to be a consortium of Russian reporters at the front.  I think there are a lot of Russian reports in the Donbass and Kharkov sectors of the front whereas there are very few of them in the Kherson area (reflecting where Russia feels are the critical fronts).  So in theory Rybar should be more accurate in  Donbass and Kharkov parts of the front and could be hit or miss in the Kherson areas.

The collapse in Kharkiv has most likely happened at least in part because the Kharkiv sector is undermanned, whereas Russia has been expecting a Kherson offensive for a while now. That being said, perhaps their reporters would be reluctant to cross the Dnipro.

Regardless of whether his map is right or not, there does appear to be room for Ukrainian optimism about Kupyansk.

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1568183684972281856
If they can hold their current positions, they can probably make the relevant rail transport a nightmare without needing to expend HIMARS or even howitzer shells.

[rc18]

With Kupyansk captured Valuyki would be well within range of HIMARS and a quick advance north toward the border would put it in gun range. With that Russia will have lost control of every rail route into Ukraine it didn't possess before the war, and all heavy logistics will have to make huge detours through Southern Russia.

[Torie]

Well if the NYT is plugged in, it seems that the plan is for Ukraine to grab the entire red blob. If Kherson was a feint, it was certainly well executed, with everyone except those in the know fooled.



“Mr. Zelensky released video of Ukrainian soldiers raising the nation’s blue and yellow flag above Balakliya on Thursday night. Ukrainian forces appeared to be advancing east toward Kupiansk, another key railway hub, in a bid to encircle Russian forces in Izium.

The cost of the advance for Ukraine was far from clear, as was the toll inflicted on beleaguered Russian forces.

Russia has signaled that it will soon send reinforcements to the battlefield, deploying the newly formed 3rd Army Corps — composed of 10,000 to 20,000 soldiers — to the eastern front.
 

As an aside, from what I have read about this particular corps, being part of "the newly formed 3rd Army Corps," has got to be one of the worst jobs in the world. My best advice, is that the poor guys pack a lot of white handkerchiefs.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1568216432072073217

Actually, the latest map shows things deteriorating around Izium even faster.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1568195486485446657

This guy is supposed to be the commander of the Taman Division in Izium.  He chose to leave with the wounded.  The post above calls him a Dick! Not a man.

[DINGO Joe]

Well if the NYT is plugged in, it seems that the plan is for Ukraine to grab the entire red blob. If Kherson was a feint, it was certainly well executed, with everyone except those in the know fooled.

Kherson is definitely not a feint.  It's a battle of attrition to isolate a large army from resupply.  It's just that the Ukrainians had the resources and plan to pull this off too. 

[EastAnglianLefty]

Rumours of Ukrainian forces in Oskil. Unconfirmed at present, but if it's true then Oskil is completely cut off.

[Sir Mohamed]

Off to The Hague hopefully!

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1568035564452024321?t=e8FWFS5mT9d6FgITZn...

Did something similar happen to any high ranking US military commander in combat? I can't think of any instance, and we were "engaged" in several wars.

[Coldstream]

I never doubted Ukraine would throw the fascists into the sea. Mariupol by Christmas!

[DINGO Joe]

TOP SECRET UKRAINIAN PLAN FOR THE KHARKIV OFFENSIVE FOUND ON A DONATED GERMAN PZH 2000

I've actually seen folks on twitter calling this "Operation Frederbonk"  cuz you know, the internet,

[Stranger in a strange land]

Off to The Hague hopefully!

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1568035564452024321?t=e8FWFS5mT9d6FgITZn...

Did something similar happen to any high ranking US military commander in combat? I can't think of any instance, and we were "engaged" in several wars.

The highest-ranking US military officer ever captured by an enemy was Major General William F. Dean, captured by North Korean forces early in the Korean War. In short, he'd been cut off from his unit and was alone, but even then was only captured because the North Koreans used local Southern Collaborators to lure him into a trap. The story reads like an action movie, and it's actually pretty surprising that none has ever been made based on his story:

For two days, the 34th Infantry fought the advancing North Koreans in bitter house-to-house fighting. North Korean soldiers continued to infiltrate the city, often disguised as farmers. The remaining elements of the 24th Infantry Division were pushed back block by block.[52] Without radios, and unable to communicate with the remaining elements of the division, Dean joined the men on the front lines, hunting the T-34 tanks with the help of the new shaped-charge, armor-piercing 3.5 inch "Super Bazookas", which had only been put into production two weeks before the war.[53] At one point, Dean personally attacked a tank with a hand grenade, destroying it.[54]

Dean's small force eventually made it out of the city past several North Korean roadblocks. Just outside the city Dean stopped his jeep to tend to several wounded US soldiers in a wrecked truck in the ditch. However, as they attempted to escape further they ran into another North Korean roadblock and were forced to continue on foot, crossing the Taejon River and climbing a nearby mountain. In the confusion, Dean was separated from the group.[58]

While he was going after water for a wounded man, Dean fell down a steep slope and was knocked unconscious. When he regained consciousness he found he had a gashed head, a broken shoulder, and many bruises. For 36 days, Dean wandered alone in the mountains trying to reach safety, going without food and medical treatment.

On August 25, two South Koreans who pretended to be guiding him toward safety led him into a prearranged ambush of North Korean soldiers at Chinan, 35 miles (56 km) south of Taejon and 65 miles (105 km) west of Taegu. Dean attempted to fight the North Koreans with his sidearm to make them kill him, but they easily took the weakened Dean prisoner.[59]

Dean was widely believed to have been killed until October 1950, when US forces captured a North Korean soldier named Lee Kyu Hyun near P'yongyang. Lee had been assigned to live with Dean for a month as an interpreter. Lee was interviewed throughout late 1950 but US military leaders still generally thought Dean was dead.[59]

As UN air raids against the North Koreans intensified, Dean was moved to Sunan, north of P'yongyang, to a hut where he lived with several guards. They began daily interrogations primarily aimed at forcing military intelligence from him or making him sign a written condemnation of the UN intervention in Korea, but Dean adamantly refused to do so. Senior North Korean military leaders continued such interrogations through October 1950 but eventually gave up when Dean would not cooperate and was not intimidated by their threats.[13]

Dean later said he had tried to commit suicide because he feared he would break under torture and divulge critical intelligence to the North Koreans, such as the plans for Operation Chromite, of which he had been aware.[1] Still he remained defiant during interrogations, refusing to divulge any information and acting unafraid, sometimes laughing off threats.[62]

When Dean returned to the United States, he received a hero's welcome and was presented with a number of decorations, including the Medal of Honor, which he was unaware he had been awarded. Dean maintained he did not think his own experience was particularly heroic and asserted he did not feel he deserved an award for his actions in Korea.[1]

So in summary, somewhat similar to what happened to Gen. Sychevoi (if it is indeed him) but with some very major and important differences. 

[The Free North]

I can in to update myself on the Kherson advance, but the news from Kharkiv is both surprising and hopeful. The Russian position around Izyum seems tenuous.

[ugabug]

Off to The Hague hopefully!

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1568035564452024321?t=e8FWFS5mT9d6FgITZn...

If that really is him then i wouldn't be surprised if he'd prefer The Hague over returning to Moscow.

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TarmoJuntunen/status/1568227635641331713

Cool

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568267855870758917

Cut the city in half. Prevents any reinforcements (if any exist) and protects their flank as they encircle Izium.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1567885354253811712?s=20&t=fCKGlaPKxycVj9...

It looks like the town's welcome signs have already been repainted:

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1568176123359465474?s=20&t=bXvYd1...

[Storr]

I want to believe, but I've stopped paying attention to what Rybar says. He used to be more reliable than other Russian Telegram sources, but ever since the Kherson offensive, he has been putting out way too much information to be credible - I think he sees himself as some kind of content creator who must have a steady output, and therefore posts dreck online even when his sources aren't reporting it.

He reported specific details of a back-and-forth in Kherson which practically nobody else got word of and claimed Ukraine was employing weapons it almost certainly doesn't have. Even if it did, pictures of these or claims from other sources (even Russian ones) should have emerged - but they didn't. It's very unlikely Finland gave up any of its Marksman anti-aircraft guns (there are only seven in existence and they're not in production anymore), and the same goes for the Leopard 2A4/2A6 tanks which Rybar also alleged came from Germany or Spain.

These maps have popped up a lot over the past two weeks and probably boosted his Telegram following, and that's a big part of why I don't trust them at all.

My understanding is that  Rybar is supposed to be a consortium of Russian reporters at the front.  I think there are a lot of Russian reports in the Donbass and Kharkov sectors of the front whereas there are very few of them in the Kherson area (reflecting where Russia feels are the critical fronts).  So in theory Rybar should be more accurate in  Donbass and Kharkov parts of the front and could be hit or miss in the Kherson areas.

The collapse in Kharkiv has most likely happened at least in part because the Kharkiv sector is undermanned, whereas Russia has been expecting a Kherson offensive for a while now. That being said, perhaps their reporters would be reluctant to cross the Dnipro.

Regardless of whether his map is right or not, there does appear to be room for Ukrainian optimism about Kupyansk.

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1568183684972281856
If they can hold their current positions, they can probably make the relevant rail transport a nightmare without needing to expend HIMARS or even howitzer shells.

Geolocation of the sign. Wow!

https://twitter.com/warsmonitoring/status/1568188025288499205?s=20&t=bXvYd1p...

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1568282616373059586

[Virginiá]

Reports were the original tank fist that broke through was around 15+ tanks, and since then after capturing 700 - 1000 sq km, Ukraine has captured a huge amount of Russian equipment - BTRs, APCs, tanks, command & control vehicles, supply trucks, self-propelled howitzers, air defense, huge stores of ammunition, etc

This is going to hurt even more when it is all turned against Russia in the near future, particularly considering that one of Ukraine's top issues right now is a lack of armored vehicles and tanks (hence why they are rushing enemy positions with armored Humvees and sometimes even pickup trucks)

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1568130343743414276

https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1567990273803698176

Just 2 days worth of captures and I count: 8 captured tanks (T-72/T-80), 10 captured BMPs / BMDs (+2 extra but damaged), 13 BTRs, dozens of other vehicles and heavy weapons like BM-21 Grad MLRS

And that is just visually documented captures. That's basically enough to outfit an entire tank company. Russia's problems in the east are going to grow exponentially if they keep losing ground en masse like this.

[Storr]

Ukraine retaking Lyman would nearly cutoff Izyum entirely. It's currently surrounded by Ukrainian held territory from the south, west, and (due to the current offensive) north. At the moment, eastward through Lyman and Oskil is the only route that the Russians can use to reach Izyum.

https://twitter.com/ApollodoreLive/status/1568293898820239360?s=20&t=f1YhrGm...

[DINGO Joe]

I'm sure they'll hit 200+ for the operation in total.  They'll definitely need to bring in the tractor brigade again to deal with all this.

[Storr]

It would be the smart thing to do at this point.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1568214612050587650?s=20&t=f1YhrGmi...