Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

lol

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1566969053394206725?s=20&t=oV_treXzf...

As with the alleged Iranian drones, if purchases are large and not simply meant to replace a reserve in Russia which was released for the war, then we should know soon enough. NK has a lot of ammo and a need for cash, so this is bad news.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though if it is from the DPRK, there will also be possible quality issues.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1567117444149350401
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567107711766085634

[Torie]

lol

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1566969053394206725?s=20&t=oV_treXzf...

As with the alleged Iranian drones, if purchases are large and not simply meant to replace a reserve in Russia which was released for the war, then we should know soon enough. NK has a lot of ammo and a need for cash, so this is bad news.

Bits from the subject NYT article are below. That can happen when the plan is for a short war, and it goes on too long.


A U.S. official said the new deal with North Korea showed the desperation in Moscow. And Mr. Kagan said turning to North Korea was a sign that Russia was seemingly unable to produce the simplest matériel needed to wage war.
…

The disclosure that Russia is seeking more artillery ammunition is a sign that Moscow’s supply problems are likely deeper than just high-end components for cutting-edge tanks or precision missiles. If Russia is seeking more artillery shells from North Korea, it is facing a shortage or could see one in the future, and its industrial base is struggling to meet the military demands of the war.

“This is very likely an indication of a massive failure of the Russian military industrial complex that likely has deep roots and very serious implications for the Russian armed forces,” Mr. Kagan said.

The article states that Russia is basically out of precision stuff, so the MO is now to just lay waste to everything in front of it with the crude stuff rendering whatever Russia "liberates" to rubble. And that process of total destruction is slowed down because the storage depots now need to be farther away from the front lines to be kept out of reach of Ukraine's precision missiles.

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/06/world/europe/moscow-war-ukraine-mood.html

Yes, sans a few high-brow concerts and performances due to the departure of those that produce them to places outside Putin’s reach that nobody but the party poopers want to go to anyway (see below), the laissez les bon temps roulez is going strong in Moscow, military themed circuses included. Our resident macro-economist on the impact of the Ukraine war was right about that bit. GUM is packed again too. Dior is not needed to attract the crowds.

“‘MOSCOW — On a recent evening in Red Square, a corps of elite paratroopers dressed in camouflage performed a battle-like dance with pyrotechnics. An Egyptian performer dressed as a pharaoh rode back and forth in a chariot wielding an ankh, the ancient Egyptian symbol of life, as a band played “Katyusha,” a Soviet-era patriotic war song.’ ”

The only party poopers out there are the usual suspects – the God damned intellectuals.

“But while many Muscovites embrace revelry and willful ignorance, many of the capital’s intelligentsia, whose work and life tied them to the West or to Ukraine, are struggling to reconcile the feeling of normalcy with the enormity of being engaged in Europe’s biggest land war since World War II.”

You know, the longer this goes on, the more Putin reminds me of, yes I know, I lose by going there - Hitler. The censorship is now almost total, and the propaganda at a fever pitch. The celebration of all things military is everywhere, including attractions for the kids to play on tanks and the like. The only thing missing, is that the Russians are just not as good as the Nazi's were at having a military that actually works very well. Praise the Lord for that.

[Stranger in a strange land]

lol

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1566969053394206725?s=20&t=oV_treXzf...

As with the alleged Iranian drones, if purchases are large and not simply meant to replace a reserve in Russia which was released for the war, then we should know soon enough. NK has a lot of ammo and a need for cash, so this is bad news.

The ammo is likely to be as old as the grandfathers of the men firing it, and it's very, very doubtful it's been stored in ideal conditions, so transporting it from NK, across Siberia, and to Ukraine is going to be a big (and dangerous) challenge in and of itself.

[Virginiá]

In other Ukrainian news:

https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1567120561603493889

[jaichind]

https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-tv-wheel-of-fortune-prize-energy-bills-prize-crisis-2022-9

"British TV show offers to pay energy bills as a spin-the-wheel prize amid growing fears of Europe's 'dystopian' crisis"



Of course Liz Truss is going to dump in a bunch of money to pretty much achieve the same result for everyone. 

My problem with this is "the solution to high prices are high prices."  High prices indicate a resource is to high demand relative to supply and that some rationalization is needed.  Prices are the way to ration.  To dump money on the problem merely continues to overutilization  of energy ensures the problem does not go away.

[Logical]

A long thread about the story of a Nenets reindeer herder who went to war.
The story has everything, climate change, environmental destruction, rural poverty, discrimination, indigenous exploitation, shady financial practices, imperialism and how it is connected to the Russian invasion.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1567080315272716289

[Torie]

Of course Liz Truss is going to dump in a bunch of money to pretty much achieve the same result for everyone.  

My problem with this is "the solution to high prices are high prices."  High prices indicate a resource is to high demand relative to supply and that some rationalization is needed.  Prices are the way to ration.  To dump money on the problem merely continues to overutilization  of energy ensures the problem does not go away.

Well yes, you get supply and demand in balance either through price, or by passing laws that allocates who gets what, like in WWII you had coupons for gasoline for your car - no coupon no gas. It would perhaps make sense to ration gas or oil to heat your home so that only a couple of rooms are heated. Use lots of blankets for the bedrooms. Second homes should be shuttered. The Brits once upon a time were used to cold homes. They wore sweaters a lot. Maybe ramp up zoom and virtual showing up to work, and close a lot of offices, which would also reduce some energy consumption for commuting. Large indoor sports and recreation venues should probably be closed for the winter. Mix and match rationing by price and rationing by fiat.

[NOVA Green]

Another Russian collaborator is seriously injured in alleged car combing earlier today:

The Russian-backed leader of an occupied city in the Zaporizhzhia region was seriously injured in a car bombing, occupation authorities said Tuesday. In a Telegram post showing a burned-out SUV parked on a narrow street, authorities accused Ukrainian forces of blowing up the car of Artyom Bardin, the head of the Russian-backed occupation administration in Berdyansk, a port city in southeastern Ukraine. Bardin was hospitalized “in a serious condition,” the post said. The Ukrainian military did not immediately release any information about the alleged bombing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/06/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Another Russian collaborator is seriously injured in alleged car combing earlier today:

The Russian-backed leader of an occupied city in the Zaporizhzhia region was seriously injured in a car bombing, occupation authorities said Tuesday. In a Telegram post showing a burned-out SUV parked on a narrow street, authorities accused Ukrainian forces of blowing up the car of Artyom Bardin, the head of the Russian-backed occupation administration in Berdyansk, a port city in southeastern Ukraine. Bardin was hospitalized “in a serious condition,” the post said. The Ukrainian military did not immediately release any information about the alleged bombing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/06/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

The collaborator framing is wrong - he was a Russian officer (the military head of the administration), not a collaborator.

[jaichind]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11181503/Ukrainian-pensioner-shoots-74million-Russian-Su-34-jet-RIFLE-awarded-medal.html

"Ukrainian pensioner 'shoots down £74million Russian Su-34 jet with a RIFLE and is awarded a medal for his heroism'"

I am trying to keep an open mind but I find this story hard to believe.  But if true quite incredible and amazing.

[Storr]

Another Russian collaborator is seriously injured in alleged car combing earlier today:

The Russian-backed leader of an occupied city in the Zaporizhzhia region was seriously injured in a car bombing, occupation authorities said Tuesday. In a Telegram post showing a burned-out SUV parked on a narrow street, authorities accused Ukrainian forces of blowing up the car of Artyom Bardin, the head of the Russian-backed occupation administration in Berdyansk, a port city in southeastern Ukraine. Bardin was hospitalized “in a serious condition,” the post said. The Ukrainian military did not immediately release any information about the alleged bombing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/06/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

Video of the car bombing aftermath:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1567119634356207617?s=20&t=Yxm2UU...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1567132286222565381?s=20&t=Yxm2UU...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1567134571996618757?s=20&t=Yxm2UU...

[Storr]

Possible Ukrainian advances near Balakliia (or Balakliya) Kharkiv Oblast, population 27,000. It is home to a huge ammunition depot, located on the satellite image as the giant rectangle of fenced off land above the "Балаклія".

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567247656799424519?s=20&t=EBJXyhXtHz...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1567192726931644424?s=20&t=3x53d9a...

[windjammer]

Everything seems to be going so well for Ukraine

[Storr]

Recently liberated Vysokopillya shown in the northern blue polygon on the map.

Warning: the video linked in the second tweet shows a deceased Russian soldier.

It appears to show the aftermath of a Ukrainian artillery strike on a Russian Buk air defense missile system.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1566851490458882055?s=20&t=vuStNCSxClRifq...

https://twitter.com/koj_al/status/1567217315481100291?s=20&t=EBJXyhXtHzaA2Ig...

[Torie]

Getting back to North Korea now becoming an arms merchant to Russia (how the world changes), there is but one transit point between Russia and North Korea - just one (the borders there between the PRC, Russia and N. Korea are erose, as if gerrymandered almost).



It's time for Ukraine to blow that bridge up. That will catch Putin's attention. I really don't see why mother Russia gets to be a sanctuary city in this war. That's not very symmetrical. I find asymmetry discordant and unaesthetic myself. What's Putin going to do about it? Rattle his nukes again? Does he even know if his nukes work?

Pity that even though the river is very close to the Pacific there, it looks too sallow for a sub. It's no Hudson River. So sad.  If it were deeper I might do a gofundme so that Ukraine can buy a sub. I could arrange to use my political influence in Samoa (yes I do know the PM there personally), to arrange for it to be the delivery point. From there it is a straight shot to the bridge.

[Storr]

Possible Ukrainian advances near Balakliia (or Balakliya) Kharkiv Oblast, population 27,000. It is home to a huge ammunition depot, located on the satellite image as the giant rectangle of fenced off land above the "Балаклія".

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567247656799424519?s=20&t=EBJXyhXtHz...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1567192726931644424?s=20&t=3x53d9a...

Hmmmm.....notably the first tweet is translated from a Russian source.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567264720595345409?s=20&t=BTWP6lPI...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567259468336857089?s=20&t=BTWP6lPI...

Warning: the linked video below shows two dead Russian soldiers, claimed to be filmed in Balakliya.

https://twitter.com/DachiOf/status/1567237826042892288?s=20&t=BTWP6lPI4YNCIBSKNWsVJw

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/9/6/china-agrees-to-pay-for-russian-gazprom-gas-in-rubles-and-yuan

"China agrees to pay for Russian gas in roubles and yuan: Gazprom"

Mostly expected but is now official.   That Russia will take payment in CNY in addition to RUB means that it expects to be able to increase imports from PRC that they can pay for via the CNY they earn from gas exports.

[jaichind]

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220905-live-ukraine-claims-gains-on-southern-front

"Germany puts nuclear reactors on standby amid Europe's energy squeeze"

Did the German Green Party sign off on this?

[Person Man]

Possible Ukrainian advances near Balakliia (or Balakliya) Kharkiv Oblast, population 27,000. It is home to a huge ammunition depot, located on the satellite image as the giant rectangle of fenced off land above the "Балаклія".

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567247656799424519?s=20&t=EBJXyhXtHz...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1567192726931644424?s=20&t=3x53d9a...

Hmmmm.....notably the first tweet is translated from a Russian source.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567264720595345409?s=20&t=BTWP6lPI...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567259468336857089?s=20&t=BTWP6lPI...

Warning: the linked video below shows two dead Russian soldiers, claimed to be filmed in Balakliya.

https://twitter.com/DachiOf/status/1567237826042892288?s=20&t=BTWP6lPI4YNCIBSKNWsVJw

This feels like Desert Storm.

[jaichind]

Possible Ukrainian advances near Balakliia (or Balakliya) Kharkiv Oblast, population 27,000. It is home to a huge ammunition depot, located on the satellite image as the giant rectangle of fenced off land above the "Балаклія".

Russian version of the situation map.  Their version has Ukrainian forces trying to cut off Russians in Balakleya but risk getting cut off themselves.  Very interesting battle.

[NOVA Green]

Another Russian collaborator is seriously injured in alleged car combing earlier today:

The Russian-backed leader of an occupied city in the Zaporizhzhia region was seriously injured in a car bombing, occupation authorities said Tuesday. In a Telegram post showing a burned-out SUV parked on a narrow street, authorities accused Ukrainian forces of blowing up the car of Artyom Bardin, the head of the Russian-backed occupation administration in Berdyansk, a port city in southeastern Ukraine. Bardin was hospitalized “in a serious condition,” the post said. The Ukrainian military did not immediately release any information about the alleged bombing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/06/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

The collaborator framing is wrong - he was a Russian officer (the military head of the administration), not a collaborator.

Thanks Tilts for the IIRC.

That's the problem with a few brief snips from a story I hadn't yet seen posted at that time (lacking context).

Regardless of one's personal opinions regarding how the partisan resistance are conducting themselves within Russian Occupied Ukraine, this would pretty clearly make him a legitimate military target, despite how individuals might view Ukrainian Civilian Collaborators under the Russian Occupation Government (Legitimate Military Targets) vs (Non-Legit Military Targets).

Personally I would subscribe to the POV that any Ukrainians working for the Russian Occupied Gvt, even within civilian structures could be considered legit targets, since effectively they are effectively working in a governmental capacity with the occupying country, but still it is perhaps a very important distinction to make, especially since the Ukrainian GVT has a legitimate claim over Russian GVT occupied territories, but still that does not mean that Ukrainian official military forces have rights to assassinate their own civilians simply because of collaboration.

Thanks again for calling out the distinction, since I was unaware from the WaPo article, that this individual was in fact a member of the "Military Wing" of the "Ukrainian Collaborators"....

We cool?

[NOVA Green]

Another Russian collaborator is seriously injured in alleged car combing earlier today:

The Russian-backed leader of an occupied city in the Zaporizhzhia region was seriously injured in a car bombing, occupation authorities said Tuesday. In a Telegram post showing a burned-out SUV parked on a narrow street, authorities accused Ukrainian forces of blowing up the car of Artyom Bardin, the head of the Russian-backed occupation administration in Berdyansk, a port city in southeastern Ukraine. Bardin was hospitalized “in a serious condition,” the post said. The Ukrainian military did not immediately release any information about the alleged bombing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/06/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

Video of the car bombing aftermath:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1567119634356207617?s=20&t=Yxm2UU...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1567132286222565381?s=20&t=Yxm2UU...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1567134571996618757?s=20&t=Yxm2UU...

How the hell did this guy survive the car bombing (Assuming that Russian propaganda is correct)?

Hell, my wife was a kid back in the '70s living in Vegas, where they saw the massive plume of a car bomb Mafia hit.

The movie Casino actually covered that incident, although the Mobster target actually survived.

We all know about how effective the IRA was in Northern Ireland when it came to the use of car bombs, let alone how IEDs were used in places such as Afghanistan and Iraq wars in more recent times.