Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Lukashenko has congratulated Ukraine on their Independence Day. I often find it hard to understand what he’s angling for.

[jaichind]

Yikes.

"Mindful of how Poland was unwilling to let Soviet troops through to help Czechoslovakia  in 1938, Moscow insisted that its Eastern European neighbors allow the Red Army to pass in the event of an attack by Nazi Germany, but was refused." [Gee, I wonder why?]

"The real threat of a war on two fronts left the Soviet Union no choice."

"Thanks to the Soviet-German non aggression pact, the war began on more advantageous borders for the Soviet Union, and hundred of thousands of lives were saved."

But that has been the USSR/Russian position for decades.  Another point they make which they have a point is that Poland actually participated in the partition of Czechoslovakia in Munich in 1938 and annexed territories from Czechoslovakia which included the railway junction city of Bohumín so Poland has no moral right to complain when they became a target of partition between Germany and USSR in 1939.

Did Putin ever admit that Russia's complicity in the partition of Poland was a sin? And Russia or  its puppet state still retain some of that territory.

https://www.expatica.com/be/general/poland-says-role-in-czechoslovakias-annexation-a-sin-74925/

What Putin will most likely say is that the 1939 partition merely pushes the border back to the Curzon Line of 1919 plus the Białystok region which actually went back to Poland after WWII ended so he would argue that the line is something even a third party thought was fair.

Also, a good part of the 1939 partition of Poland territories actually is now a part of Ukraine including Lvov.  I wonder what Ukraine's position on the 1939 partition is and whether will they consider giving back the Lvov area back to Poland.  BTW the argument against this would be that right after WWII USSR and Poland had a bunch of population exchanges around this USSR (Ukraine SSR) border.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lukashenko has congratulated Ukraine on their Independence Day. I often find it hard to understand what he’s angling for.

To stay in power himself, basically.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1562435700204929025

[NOVA Green]

Another Russian collaborator in Ukraine dies in car bombing.

Vladimir Rogov, a member of the administration council in Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia, a region in southeastern Ukraine, said in a Telegram post that Ivan Sushko, the Moscow-backed administrator of the village of Mykhailivka, died of injuries sustained after an explosive device planted under the seat of his car detonated while he was driving.

In a separate post, Rogov said Sushko’s adopted daughter had also been in the car at the time of the explosion. She survived without critical injuries, he added. Rogov shared surveillance footage he said showed the explosion. In the video, time-stamped 8 a.m. Wednesday, a large cloud engulfs a car rolling into view. Subsequent footage, supposedly taken at the scene, shows a burned-out silver SUV. Blood can be seen at the base of the driver’s side door.

“The terrorist entity UGIL must be destroyed!” Rogov wrote, referring to Ukraine with a Russian abbreviation meant to invoke a comparison to the Islamic State.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/24/russia-ukraine-war-6-months-live-updates/#link-TRV3BDL6IVEL5ALCOQJCF4PEYQ

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1562415685363412992

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/vice-president-of-the-german-parliament-calls-for-activation-of-nord-stream-2/

"Activate Nord Stream 2 ASAP, says German parliament vice president"

FDP German parliament vice president wants to turn on NS2 on a temp basis to get more Russian gas to mitigate the energy crisis.

[Storr]

The Nova Kakhovka bridge appears to be very heavily damaged:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1562473733918703617?s=20&t=INZwXq...

Video of the strikes on the bridge:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1562418896749166592?s=20&t=INZwXqcfaE...

[Storr]

The Nova Kakhovka bridge appears to be very heavily damaged:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1562473733918703617?s=20&t=INZwXq...

Video of the strikes on the bridge:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1562418896749166592?s=20&t=INZwXqcfaE...

When the meme becomes reality:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1562482592909119492?s=20&t=4PJ2Kgg1G8NQ2h...

[The Dowager Mod]

  lol
https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1562440263330476032

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/24/macron-warns-of-end-of-abundance-as-france-faces-difficult-winter

"Macron warns of ‘end of abundance’ as France faces difficult winter"

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1562508852465377280?s=20&t=4PJ2Kg...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1562508852465377280?s=20&t=4PJ2Kg...

How much does this actually harm Ukrainian logistics?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yikes.

"Mindful of how Poland was unwilling to let Soviet troops through to help Czechoslovakia  in 1938, Moscow insisted that its Eastern European neighbors allow the Red Army to pass in the event of an attack by Nazi Germany, but was refused." [Gee, I wonder why?]

"The real threat of a war on two fronts left the Soviet Union no choice."

"Thanks to the Soviet-German non aggression pact, the war began on more advantageous borders for the Soviet Union, and hundred of thousands of lives were saved."

But that has been the USSR/Russian position for decades.  Another point they make which they have a point is that Poland actually participated in the partition of Czechoslovakia in Munich in 1938 and annexed territories from Czechoslovakia which included the railway junction city of Bohumín so Poland has no moral right to complain when they became a target of partition between Germany and USSR in 1939.

It's fairly clear that the Molotov-Ribbentrop deal brought additional security to the Soviet Union and Putin is indeed correct to say that it did this.
But the fact he's bringing this up now is very much a tell as to what the current environment in Europe is, right about now.

[Pericles]

Yikes.

"Mindful of how Poland was unwilling to let Soviet troops through to help Czechoslovakia  in 1938, Moscow insisted that its Eastern European neighbors allow the Red Army to pass in the event of an attack by Nazi Germany, but was refused." [Gee, I wonder why?]

"The real threat of a war on two fronts left the Soviet Union no choice."

"Thanks to the Soviet-German non aggression pact, the war began on more advantageous borders for the Soviet Union, and hundred of thousands of lives were saved."

But that has been the USSR/Russian position for decades.  Another point they make which they have a point is that Poland actually participated in the partition of Czechoslovakia in Munich in 1938 and annexed territories from Czechoslovakia which included the railway junction city of Bohumín so Poland has no moral right to complain when they became a target of partition between Germany and USSR in 1939.

It's fairly clear that the Molotov-Ribbentrop deal brought additional security to the Soviet Union and Putin is indeed correct to say that it did this.
But the fact he's bringing this up now is very much a tell as to what the current environment in Europe is, right about now.

Not at all, Germany would have struggled much more fighting four countries rather than being able to focus almost entirely on the USSR alone, and their army was actually stronger in 1941 than in was in 1939.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yikes.

"Mindful of how Poland was unwilling to let Soviet troops through to help Czechoslovakia  in 1938, Moscow insisted that its Eastern European neighbors allow the Red Army to pass in the event of an attack by Nazi Germany, but was refused." [Gee, I wonder why?]

"The real threat of a war on two fronts left the Soviet Union no choice."

"Thanks to the Soviet-German non aggression pact, the war began on more advantageous borders for the Soviet Union, and hundred of thousands of lives were saved."

But that has been the USSR/Russian position for decades.  Another point they make which they have a point is that Poland actually participated in the partition of Czechoslovakia in Munich in 1938 and annexed territories from Czechoslovakia which included the railway junction city of Bohumín so Poland has no moral right to complain when they became a target of partition between Germany and USSR in 1939.

It's fairly clear that the Molotov-Ribbentrop deal brought additional security to the Soviet Union and Putin is indeed correct to say that it did this.
But the fact he's bringing this up now is very much a tell as to what the current environment in Europe is, right about now.

Not at all, Germany would have struggled much more fighting four countries rather than being able to focus almost entirely on the USSR alone, and their army was actually stronger in 1941 than in was in 1939.

Didn't the Soviets try to get such a grand alliance together, only for those plans to fall through due to anti-communist sentiment? Stalin was a cautious man and the last thing he wanted was for the Soviet Union to be a battleground. Seems like the alternative to Molotov-Ribbentrop was not "some united anti-Nazi front", but Germans being mere, what, 600 miles from Moscow? How do you justify that, when it had been a mere two dozen years since the Germans defeated Russia in the east...while having to make up much more ground.

This is the north European plain, the more land the more security.

[jaichind]

Yikes.

"Mindful of how Poland was unwilling to let Soviet troops through to help Czechoslovakia  in 1938, Moscow insisted that its Eastern European neighbors allow the Red Army to pass in the event of an attack by Nazi Germany, but was refused." [Gee, I wonder why?]

"The real threat of a war on two fronts left the Soviet Union no choice."

"Thanks to the Soviet-German non aggression pact, the war began on more advantageous borders for the Soviet Union, and hundred of thousands of lives were saved."

But that has been the USSR/Russian position for decades.  Another point they make which they have a point is that Poland actually participated in the partition of Czechoslovakia in Munich in 1938 and annexed territories from Czechoslovakia which included the railway junction city of Bohumín so Poland has no moral right to complain when they became a target of partition between Germany and USSR in 1939.

It's fairly clear that the Molotov-Ribbentrop deal brought additional security to the Soviet Union and Putin is indeed correct to say that it did this.
But the fact he's bringing this up now is very much a tell as to what the current environment in Europe is, right about now.

Clearly, Putin is bringing this up to cover his flank on the "Nazi" issue since he is accusing the Ukrainians of being pro-Nazi.  On the issue of Stalin's motives, he was convinced that USA UK, and France were trying to turn Hitler's military might toward the USSR so he felt he had to turn the "sword of Hitler" back toward the West.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile a bit shocked that nobody on this thread has yet mentioned how the spread of Russian style fascism is even taking out extremely popular mayors in large cities.

Russian authorities detained the former mayor of Yekaterinburg for allegedly discrediting the Russian armed forces, part of the Kremlin’s efforts to suppress criticism of its war in Ukraine.

Yevgeny Roizman, an outspoken critic of President Vladimir Putin and one of the last prominent Kremlin opponents who hasn’t fled Russia or been jailed, was detained Wednesday at his home in Yekaterinburg, the fourth-largest city in Russia.

Leyla Guseynova, Mr. Roizman’s assistant, said law-enforcement officials had searched his home, the Roizman Fund and a museum he founded. She said a few business cards from his home and a couple of laptops from the fund were confiscated.

Ms. Guseynova said Mr. Roizman had been detained for discrediting Russia’s armed forces and could spend three years in prison, under a section of a law adopted in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Under other legislation, people who are found guilty of knowingly distributing false information about the army can face up to 15 years in prison.

Last month, Mr. Roizman told The Wall Street Journal he had “no illusions” about his future, even though he didn’t want to go to prison. “But I am not scared and I will of course not run from my country and I will stand until the end,” he said.

Mr. Roizman was speaking after another opposition politician, Ilya Yashin, was placed in pretrial detention on charges of spreading false information about alleged war crimes committed by Russian forces.

After Mr. Yashin was detained, Mr. Roizman was scrolling through his photo archives when he came upon one of himself, Mr. Yashin and two other opposition politicians on stage at an event in Moscow last spring. At the time, Mr. Roizman was the only one still not behind bars.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-detains-putin-critic-ex-mayor-on-charges-of-discrediting-military-11661355890

[The Dowager Mod]

Reeks of desperation.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1562805942562852865

[Sir Mohamed]

So this pretty much comes close to a general draft? Or anything Putin could do below that? I thought he wanted to avoid a general mobilization because it may risk more backlash?

The question also is what kind of forces these will be. Just a higher number of personell does accomplish little, especially with a lack of training. This is more than a numbers game. If they're untrained and sent into battle, it's basically just a suicide squad.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So this pretty much comes close to a general draft? Or anything Putin could do below that? I thought he wanted to avoid a general mobilization because it may risk more backlash?

The question also is what kind of forces these will be. Just a higher number of personell does accomplish little, especially with a lack of training. This is more than a numbers game. If they're untrained and sent into battle, it's basically just a suicide squad.

137K people doesn't sound like a general draft to me. And yeah, it will take a while before they are anywhere close to combat-ready.

Still, definitely a sign that Putin is ready to drag this out. And therefore we also should make it clear we're ready to stand by Ukraine for the long haul.

[jaichind]

https://usun.usmission.gov/joint-statement-on-six-months-of-russias-full-scale-invasion-of-ukraine/

UN statement on the 6th month of the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.  58 UN members (which is less than 1/3 of UN members) signed up.  Pretty much the core collective West states and allies but nothing else.  The only "swing" votes this statement got is Türkiye and Singapore.

[jaichind]

Reeks of desperation.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1562805942562852865

If I recall in 2005 the USA also had a 80K surge in the size of military force as the Iraq War was dragging on with no end in sieght.

[jaichind]

https://www.montelnews.com/news/1345777/french-prices-soar-to-new-highs-on-nuclear-outages

"French prices soar to new highs on nuclear outages"

Another surge in France's power prices on news of nuclear plant outages.

[Storr]

What autumn will be like in the trenches (loud music warning):

https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1562494309126942721?s=20&t=Io_8_XWGr...

Edit: Bonus useful explanation about Ukrainian fall weather in the comments of the above post:

https://twitter.com/netsenzurnyj/status/1562547014335733760?s=20&t=Io_8_XWGr...