Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 825191 times)
Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #13325 on: August 08, 2022, 08:54:37 PM »
« edited: August 08, 2022, 09:02:50 PM by Obama-Biden Democrat »

Modern war burns ammo at an inhuman rate. Like well above the amount that can be produced. We are going to have to send Ukraine both increasingly more packages and eventually transition them to NATO kit while Russia burns it’s increasingly dubious Cold War stockpiles.

Their artillery capability is already reliant on NATO howitzers, with a limited supply of 152mm shells for their older Soviet guns. This was a big reason why they got a shipment of 155mm L119 light howitzers a month ago and have been ordering Krabs / PzH 2000s. Unfortunately, they are still in a bind because the roughly ~200 - 250+ 155mm howitzers they have received are not enough to cover the massive front lines, let alone build up reserves for a proper counterattack. The end result is less strike capability and more wear and tear on existing guns, which need replacement barrels and other parts much more often since they are basically being maxed out. Hopefully NATO is discussing more howitzers for Ukraine at some point.

After the 2014 Crimea invasion, Russia started a stealth campaign to deny Ukraine the ability to purchase Soviet 152mm shells. Russia sent in FSB agents to kill the CEOs of companies that were supplying Ukraine with the shells.

The NATO 155mm howitzers sent should be doubled to 400-500 to give Ukraine a chance to win.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #13326 on: August 08, 2022, 09:35:45 PM »

The NATO 155mm howitzers sent should be doubled to 400-500 to give Ukraine a chance to win.

I agree that more should be given, but it's hard to see where those would come from. Europe doesn't have huge artillery forces, and many of those that have larger forces have given about as many as they are comfortable with already. That leaves the US and possibly any other countries willing to sell theirs. It's also not clear what more the US would be willing to send, given that they already donated 126+ M777s. Their M109A6s are currently being upgraded to the A7 Paladin model, and as such hundreds of the SPGs are currently out of service and being rebuilt. That leaves them with less margin for error and probably why they haven't already given some to Ukraine (just a guess, though).

It recently came out that Spain was looking to get rid of their M109A5 self-propelled howitzers in favor of France's CAESAR. Perhaps they could be convinced to immediately sell a significant part of their M109s (96 total) to Ukraine in exchange for priority deliveries from France when available, with security guarantees in the meantime. I think if Ukraine wants a lot more artillery soon, it would probably take some negotiating along those lines.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13327 on: August 09, 2022, 12:37:14 AM »

So current US numbers estimate something like 70k-80k Russian troops KIA or WIA?

Regardless of how one looks at it, very difficult to see how Russia will be able expand territorial control in Ukraine, let alone hold onto the territory they control, without going into a full blown "draft mode", while might well trigger the latent Russian Anti-War movement, in a war which was never really that popular to begin with, especially amongst those of military service age.

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As many as 80,000 Russian troops have been wounded or killed in less than six months of fighting in Ukraine, the Pentagon said Monday, the first time the U.S. military announced its estimates of the toll of the invasion on Russia.

According to U.S. estimates, Russia has suffered 70,000 to 80,000 casualties, Colin Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, told reporters at a press briefing Monday. In the days leading up to Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion, Western officials estimated that Russia had staged roughly 150,000 troops near Ukraine’s border.

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In all, the Russian military is made up of roughly 900,000 troops. It is unclear whether the U.S. estimates count separatist forces operating Russian-created statelets in the Donbas, the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics.

Quote
Last month, CIA Director William Burns said the U.S. estimated that 15,000 Russian troops had been killed in the war and about 45,000 wounded.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-many-as-80-000-russian-troops-hurt-or-killed-in-ukraine-pentagon-says-11659989514
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #13328 on: August 09, 2022, 02:20:39 AM »

Key words: "as many as".
This is an upper estimate, not a median one. I would not necessarily assume the highest possible number of body bags...
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #13329 on: August 09, 2022, 04:51:48 AM »
« Edited: August 09, 2022, 05:02:01 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

The NATO 155mm howitzers sent should be doubled to 400-500 to give Ukraine a chance to win.

I agree that more should be given, but it's hard to see where those would come from.

I disagree.

As an aside - the L119 is actually 105mm, which complicates logistics but reduces any potential strain on the 155mm ammunition supply. Australia apparently has 200 in reserve; the US has <1000 in service.

Quote
Europe doesn't have huge artillery forces, and many of those that have larger forces have given about as many as they are comfortable with already. That leaves the US and possibly any other countries willing to sell theirs. It's also not clear what more the US would be willing to send, given that they already donated 126+ M777s. Their M109A6s are currently being upgraded to the A7 Paladin model, and as such hundreds of the SPGs are currently out of service and being rebuilt. That leaves them with less margin for error and probably why they haven't already given some to Ukraine (just a guess, though).

Europe could do more, but I know less about inventories there as there are ~35 countries to track. I'll stick to the US as an example here.

IIRC, the US was looking to divest itself of ~250 M777s over the next few years as the Marines ditched them for HIMARS. They also have a few hundred older M198s sitting in storage and visible in satellite imagery (as of June) which could be repaired and sent to Ukraine. They've ordered a few tens of M109 to be upgraded so that they can continue to replace the M109A6s in service with M109A7s, but according to last year's military balance, they have about 850 M109A6s in reserve, in addition to those in service.

I don't believe none of these are being sent because of a shortage of weapons for active use - they haven't used M198s for years. It may be that the US prioritizes keeping a large reserve, or does not want to supply Ukraine with so many tubes that they burn ammunition beyond a certain rate, or it may be due to them currently assessing whether it is useful to supply Ukraine with more mortars, howitzers, or HIMARS (they've just sent the first mortars in a while).

We also cannot rule out that this fits into a wider pattern of reluctance to provide Ukraine with a large advantage in certain domains on the grounds that it could cause "escalation". Drip-feeding aid makes any Ukrainian victory slower and less certain, but a longer war which ends in defeat is also much more damaging for Russia than a swift defeat would be.
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jaichind
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« Reply #13330 on: August 09, 2022, 05:15:17 AM »

From NYT.  I do not think the way this request is worded is wise and most likely be counterproductive


Something struck me about this picture.   It seems the Biden administration sent a Black diplomat to lecture and warn African countries not to buy from Russia.  I point this out because it seems this is a pattern in the Biden administration.

Back in March when the Russia-Ukraine war just started the Biden administration sent an envoy to India to "warn" India to fall in line with the anti-Russia sanctions.  The envoy in question was a person of Indian decent.  When I saw that my reaction was "this is a very bad idea."  I wonder if anyone in the Biden state department ever read a book on Indian history written by India for Indians.  In those books, the rise of the British Raj was critically enabled by Indian proxies for the British (Mir Jafar as Nawab Nazim of Bengal, the various Nizam Nawab of Hyderabad, the Raghunath Rao clan in the Maratha confederacy, and various Nawab Nizam of Awadh, etc)  To send an envoy of Indian decent to "lecture" and "warn" Indians on a course of action will just revive those bitter memories of their historical narrative.  Until the visit of the USA envoy, the Hindi media in India was clearly pro-Russia but there were pro-Ukraine voices in the English Indian media.  After the failed attempt by the USA envoy of India decent to change Indian policy pro-Ukraine voices started to disappear from Indian media and social media as no one want to be lumped into an Indian proxy for an "American Raj"

I assume in the warped woke identy policies world view of Biden and the Democrats this is a good idea but I suspect in Africa this will play just as badly as it did in India.
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jaichind
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« Reply #13331 on: August 09, 2022, 08:19:30 AM »

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-suspends-oil-exports-via-southern-leg-druzhba-pipeline-due-transit-2022-08-09/

"Russia's Transneft says Ukraine halted oil flows to Europe over payment issue"

It seems Russian pipeline oil flows via Belorus to EU continues
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rc18
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« Reply #13332 on: August 09, 2022, 08:48:06 AM »
« Edited: August 09, 2022, 09:51:41 AM by rc18 »

Novofedorivka airbase in western Crimea goes up in smoke.



~220 km from the frontlines...
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Virginiá
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« Reply #13333 on: August 09, 2022, 09:47:21 AM »
« Edited: August 09, 2022, 09:53:55 AM by Virginiá »

I don't believe none of these are being sent because of a shortage of weapons for active use - they haven't used M198s for years. It may be that the US prioritizes keeping a large reserve, or does not want to supply Ukraine with so many tubes that they burn ammunition beyond a certain rate, or it may be due to them currently assessing whether it is useful to supply Ukraine with more mortars, howitzers, or HIMARS (they've just sent the first mortars in a while).

I mean that is pretty much what I was getting at. It doesn't matter exactly how many weapons the US has if they factor into their own plans and they are also not willing to compromise said plans. US weapon stores are not really in question so much as their willingness to actually take from it and give to Ukraine. Rate of ammunition usage sounds like a better explanation to me, if it was any of those. It's possible if the US doesn't think UA needs more, it could be along the lines of them believing they do need more but at the same time, more won't really change the front lines enough to justify the costs.

Does the US still have the capability to supply Ukraine with barrels and other parts for the M198s, if the US decided to donate these? Apparently it had maintenance and reliability issues during its lifetime, so that might have been a consideration.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #13334 on: August 09, 2022, 09:49:09 AM »

Oh who's to say where a front line is....as long as it is a military target.  Looks like the front line to me.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #13335 on: August 09, 2022, 09:55:39 AM »

Another supply depot hit in Kherson Oblast, 150km+ from the front line.



There's some speculation that it could be Neptune anti-ship missiles configured to hit land targets, or that the US finally gave Ukraine the ATACMS for the m270/HIMARS, which has a range of 300km.
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jaichind
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« Reply #13336 on: August 09, 2022, 10:02:41 AM »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/uk-braces-for-blackouts-gas-cuts-in-january-in-emergency-plan

"UK Braces for Blackouts, Gas Cuts in January in Emergency Plan"

Wow.  The UK is not even that dependent on Russian energy. I think what is going on is in the winter months UK does buy gas from Mainland EU to cover shortfalls in gas supply.  This winter mainland Europe is expected to have its own shortages ergo this could become a crisis for the UK.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #13337 on: August 09, 2022, 10:27:57 AM »

Update on Crimea airbase strike:

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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #13338 on: August 09, 2022, 11:30:34 AM »



A thread with many many videos and photos of the explosions.  Obviously, given the location and time of day it'll be the most documented event of the war thus far.

#17 is pretty interesting because you can see the shockwave on the video and blue car obviously felt it and decided to turn around.  There are photos of windows blow out and traffic jams of people trying to leave but can't say for sure if all part of this event.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #13339 on: August 09, 2022, 02:25:09 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2022, 02:28:58 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Course of the Russian commentary on the two strikes at the airbase today:

- It was a fire from an accident; nobody was harmed. No aircraft harmed; ammunition exploded
- Admission of one dead and five wounded
- State media commentator says Ukraine has crossed a red line in Crimea, but does not say they are responsible for the attack
- Russian soldiers leak images on Telegram showing at least one destroyed aircraft

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rc18
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« Reply #13340 on: August 09, 2022, 03:11:04 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2022, 04:45:52 PM by rc18 »

Course of the Russian commentary on the two strikes at the airbase today:

- It was a fire from an accident; nobody was harmed. No aircraft harmed; ammunition exploded
- Admission of one dead and five wounded
- State media commentator says Ukraine has crossed a red line in Crimea, but does not say they are responsible for the attack
- Russian soldiers leak images on Telegram showing at least one destroyed aircraft



There's also what appears to be the remains of a burnt out Su-30 (?) to the right.

There were about 6 planes parked up this morning just at the location this appears to be, and plenty more scattered around.


Edit; some more video. This car parking is even further away from the storage buildings that appear to have blown up than the plane above (planes are bottom right on the satellite image,  storage sites off map to the south).

Watch till the end...

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13341 on: August 09, 2022, 07:52:22 PM »

A Senior Ukrainian official per NYT:

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Publicly, Ukrainian officials would not confirm the involvement of Ukraine’s military, as Russian and occupation officials scrambled to determine the source of the blasts, raising the terrorist threat level in the area. But a senior Ukrainian military official with knowledge of the situation said that Ukrainian forces were responsible, having carried out an attack on the Saki air base on the western coast of Crimea.

Speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters, the official said the air base was one from which planes regularly took off for attacks on Ukrainian forces. The official would not disclose what type of weapon caused the explosions, saying only that “a device exclusively of Ukrainian manufacture was used.”

also:

Quote
The senior Ukrainian official said the attack involved partisan resistance forces loyal to the government in Kyiv, but he would not disclose whether those forces carried out the attack or assisted regular Ukrainian military units in targeting the base, as has sometimes occurred in other occupied Ukrainian territories. It was not clear how many detonations there were, but witnesses and Russian officials cited multiple blasts, which videos posted to social media appeared to confirm.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/09/world/europe/crimea-explosions-russia-ukraine.html

Meanwhile an hour or so ago of in the Post:

Quote
It was not immediately clear who was responsible for the blasts on the west coast of the peninsula, in an area of beach resorts. An aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky distanced Kyiv from the attack. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, said it appeared Ukrainian forces had carried out a strike using a weapon not provided by the United States. U.S. officials referred additional questions about the operation to Ukraine.

The attack, if conducted by Ukraine, would amount to a dramatic escalation in the nearly 6-month-old war. It would demonstrate a remarkable ability by Ukrainian forces, or their allies, to strike at Russia far from front lines, deep inside territory where Russian tourists are so comfortable with their security that they lounge near the base on sandy Black Sea beaches.

and a little bit of Ukrainian trolling...

Quote

In a statements posted on social media, seemingly meant to needle Moscow, Ukraine’s defense ministry said it “cannot establish the cause of the fire,” but reminded the Russian side of the dangers of "smoking in unspecified places.”

In another post, the Ukrainians seemed to troll the Russians further: “The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine would like to remind everyone that the presence of occupying troops on the territory of Ukrainian Crimea is not compatible with the high tourist season."


Quote
In an interview with Dozhd, an independent Russian online broadcaster, Podolyak did not claim responsibility, saying anti-Russia partisans might have carried out the attack.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/09/crimea-explosion-russian-air-base/

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Person Man
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« Reply #13342 on: August 09, 2022, 08:38:55 PM »

So is the next stage of the basically artillery valleys and sabotaging an entrenched yet immobilized occupation force?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13343 on: August 10, 2022, 01:13:44 AM »

So is the next stage of the basically artillery valleys and sabotaging an entrenched yet immobilized occupation force?

Well... very good question.

Sure Ukraine can will def hit hard on the West banks of the river and surround Kherson City, in Russia
s weakest zone and basically force the Russian entrenched garrisons to be either military defeated or starved, in a city where the overwhelming majority of the civilian population will rise up , even if it takes molotov cocktails to force the occupiers out.

Meanwhile UKR forces have been launching significant counter attacks on what is something like a 1.5 km front lines, not to mention traditional "probe and reccie ops"...

Significant shift of Russian forces from Donbas to Kherson naturally create their own complications, since it allows the possibility of major Ukrainian counter assaults in places such as NE Ukraine, not to mention the Donbas region.

UKR would def prefer to either capture or re-capture entrenched Russian trenches/ formations vs a WW I style slog fest, but reality if UKR were able to successfully execute a Ukrainian counter-offensive and liberate Kherson City would be a HUGE morale booster.

Terrain of Kherson province likely would favor UKR vs RUS, and as soon as you take out RUS systems, not to difficult to imagine UKR units sweeping down to liberate some of the first occupied regions of Ukraine post 2014 Russian Fascist Invasion of Ukraine.

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jaichind
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« Reply #13344 on: August 10, 2022, 08:28:08 AM »

Big surge of semiconductor exports from PRC to Russia

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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #13345 on: August 10, 2022, 11:04:14 AM »

Lazurne is quite far from the front lines, 69km from the nearest town under Ukrainian control Oleksandrivka, Kherson Oblast.



This was a very rare valuable piece of equipment they took out.  The kind of thing Russia can't build now.

One of the internet tech guys thinks these dots might connect

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jaichind
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« Reply #13346 on: August 10, 2022, 05:42:13 PM »

Russia's July CPI MoM came in at -0.39% as deflation momentum continues.  This seems to be driven by food prices which are falling across the board.   This is going to put pressure on Russia Cental Bank to cut rates more.
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« Reply #13347 on: August 10, 2022, 05:51:44 PM »

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pppolitics
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« Reply #13348 on: August 10, 2022, 06:10:19 PM »

lot of aircrafts lost

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pppolitics
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« Reply #13349 on: August 10, 2022, 06:12:21 PM »

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