Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 826008 times)
GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #11575 on: May 23, 2022, 10:43:53 AM »

So this is something I’ve been wondering about for a while. PNTR with Russia was pulled months ago. But there hasn’t been any movement on tariffs.

Why won’t Biden place tariffs on Russia? Is he going to soon?

We blocked oil imports from Russia, which was already like 80-90% of our Russia imports.

As for what else we import, I'm not sure of its current status.  I know platinum is one thing we import in a pretty small quantity, but it may be critical enough to be impossible to ban at the current time while simultaneously being small enough to not have a significant impact on Russia's economy one way or another.

Oil & gas was an enormous part of Russia's economy.  Everything else is basically just nibbling at the edges.  But I wouldn't be surprised if most of the other imports have been cut off one way or another as well.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11576 on: May 23, 2022, 12:07:47 PM »



After the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet’s best air defence (the Moskva), this could well be the decisive step in bringing an end to Russian naval superiority. Anti-ship missiles tend to be significantly cheaper than warships, and the Montreux convention restricts what Russia can bring into the Black Sea to smaller warships (through Russia’s internal waterways - if they still work - or overland, in the cases of very small boats).

Sinking the Russian surface combatants will greatly reduce the cruise missile bombardment, among other things. The long-term goal, I imagine, is to completely break the maritime blockade, allowing the export of Ukrainian grain that could save millions from starvation over the coming months (along with much of their own economy). That will require a demining operation afterwards, and something else to deal with Russian submarines - but this is an absolutely necessary, cost-effective step. Hopefully, other countries follow suit.
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Storr
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« Reply #11577 on: May 23, 2022, 12:24:27 PM »

Lyman currently being Grozny’d


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KaiserDave
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« Reply #11578 on: May 23, 2022, 12:39:00 PM »

So this is something I’ve been wondering about for a while. PNTR with Russia was pulled months ago. But there hasn’t been any movement on tariffs.

Why won’t Biden place tariffs on Russia? Is he going to soon?

I know you have an obsession with 19th century economic policy, but big tariff walls are not actually a good idea. And why would Biden do that when we already have a high prices crisis? This wouldn't do much additional damage to the Russians anyway.
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sguberman
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« Reply #11579 on: May 23, 2022, 12:41:50 PM »

So this is something I’ve been wondering about for a while. PNTR with Russia was pulled months ago. But there hasn’t been any movement on tariffs.

Why won’t Biden place tariffs on Russia? Is he going to soon?

We blocked oil imports from Russia, which was already like 80-90% of our Russia imports.

As for what else we import, I'm not sure of its current status.  I know platinum is one thing we import in a pretty small quantity, but it may be critical enough to be impossible to ban at the current time while simultaneously being small enough to not have a significant impact on Russia's economy one way or another.

Oil & gas was an enormous part of Russia's economy.  Everything else is basically just nibbling at the edges.  But I wouldn't be surprised if most of the other imports have been cut off one way or another as well.
We also still import Uranium
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BRTD
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« Reply #11580 on: May 23, 2022, 12:54:58 PM »

Starbucks has pulled out of Russia: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/starbucks-will-exit-russia-after-15-years-closing-130-licensed-cafes.html
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Nathan
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« Reply #11581 on: May 23, 2022, 01:24:18 PM »



After the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet’s best air defence (the Moskva), this could well be the decisive step in bringing an end to Russian naval superiority. Anti-ship missiles tend to be significantly cheaper than warships, and the Montreux convention restricts what Russia can bring into the Black Sea to smaller warships (through Russia’s internal waterways - if they still work - or overland, in the cases of very small boats).

Sinking the Russian surface combatants will greatly reduce the cruise missile bombardment, among other things. The long-term goal, I imagine, is to completely break the maritime blockade, allowing the export of Ukrainian grain that could save millions from starvation over the coming months (along with much of their own economy). That will require a demining operation afterwards, and something else to deal with Russian submarines - but this is an absolutely necessary, cost-effective step. Hopefully, other countries follow suit.

How much will revenue from grain exports boost Ukraine's ability to buy weapons from countries (or sketchy arms dealers/hawalas/whatever) that aren't willing to just give or lend-lease them?
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Woody
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« Reply #11582 on: May 23, 2022, 01:57:46 PM »



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Torie
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« Reply #11583 on: May 23, 2022, 03:22:45 PM »

In other news, what is this chatter of a massing of 20,000 Ukrainian troops and an apparent planned big Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kherson to force Russia to divert troops there to take the pressure off the Donbas? Is this just disinformation or is it real? I don't see the chatter elsewhere.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OmNqY_OXaA


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Storr
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« Reply #11584 on: May 23, 2022, 03:42:18 PM »

Lyman currently being Grozny’d




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walleye26
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« Reply #11585 on: May 23, 2022, 04:39:13 PM »

Lyman currently being Grozny’d





Lyman currently being Grozny’d






I can imagine a Russian general or Colonel saying something like “we had to destroy the town in order to save it.”

There will be nothing left of it when this is over.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11586 on: May 23, 2022, 04:51:26 PM »
« Edited: May 23, 2022, 04:55:23 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Lyman currently being Grozny’d


 



Lyman currently being Grozny’d


 




I can imagine a Russian general or Colonel saying something like “we had to destroy the town in order to save it.”

There will be nothing left of it when this is over.

The images are horrifying, but most people survived Grozny. Lots never came back and vast numbers were traumatised/injured, but “dead” cities in Syria remain so because rebuilding is too expensive. This can be solved with a money printer if Ukraine takes the land back. The question then would ve whether her allies will invest sufficiently and effectively (Russia has already admitted they won’t fully rebuild certain places - e.g. the Azovstal steelworks).
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Storr
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« Reply #11587 on: May 23, 2022, 05:17:37 PM »

Maybe a significant reason why the Russian military (seemingly) expected little resistance from Ukraine at the start of the war was because so many senior officers are originally from Soviet Ukraine. I can imagine generals convincing themselves along the lines of: "When growing up in Kharkov, everybody were such patriotic Soviets. They'll welcome us as brother slav liberators."

"At least 20 [an eighth!] of the officers on Proekt’s list are “tied to Ukraine, one way or another.” In other words, they were born in Ukraine or grew up there."



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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11588 on: May 23, 2022, 05:28:41 PM »


After the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet’s best air defence (the Moskva), this could well be the decisive step in bringing an end to Russian naval superiority. Anti-ship missiles tend to be significantly cheaper than warships, and the Montreux convention restricts what Russia can bring into the Black Sea to smaller warships (through Russia’s internal waterways - if they still work - or overland, in the cases of very small boats).

Sinking the Russian surface combatants will greatly reduce the cruise missile bombardment, among other things. The long-term goal, I imagine, is to completely break the maritime blockade, allowing the export of Ukrainian grain that could save millions from starvation over the coming months (along with much of their own economy). That will require a demining operation afterwards, and something else to deal with Russian submarines - but this is an absolutely necessary, cost-effective step. Hopefully, other countries follow suit.

How much will revenue from grain exports boost Ukraine's ability to buy weapons from countries (or sketchy arms dealers/hawalas/whatever) that aren't willing to just give or lend-lease them?

Ukrainian grain exports dropped to a quarter of what they were from February to March. That’s the biggest part of their agricultural sector, which was about 12% of their economy according to Wikipedia. The grain shortages as a result of disruption in farming areas would drive the price of the stockpiled grain even higher than it otherwise would have been.

They might be better served putting this money into the pockets of workers rather than buying weapons inefficiently off the black market. They have had issues with paying workers since the conflict and the massive contraction of the economy, and humanitarian aid is a very short-term solution here with a country of Ukraine’s size.

If more money is to be poured directly into the war effort, I hope they quietly offer to subsidise the “lend-lease” of platforms which the West is too cheap to send to Ukraine. The NASAMS anti-aircraft missile seems like a good example here: they already have the most sensitive technology (the radar it uses), so the primary concerns in getting a whole system would be costs and training costs.
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Storr
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« Reply #11589 on: May 23, 2022, 06:51:42 PM »

In other news, what is this chatter of a massing of 20,000 Ukrainian troops and an apparent planned big Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kherson to force Russia to divert troops there to take the pressure off the Donbas? Is this just disinformation or is it real? I don't see the chatter elsewhere.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OmNqY_OXaA



This tweet thread might be related to what you're talking about. When it comes any war, this one especially, consider everything as possible disinformation until there's evidence/confirmation that it is true. Both sides are successors of the Soviet disinformation and propaganda apparatus and knowledgeable in its tactics.







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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11590 on: May 24, 2022, 01:32:12 AM »

M777 Artillery has now been deployed and NYT article asks will it make the difference...

Quote
Three months into the war in Ukraine, the first M777s — the most lethal weapons the West has provided so far — are now deployed in combat in Ukraine’s east. Their arrival has buoyed Ukraine’s hopes of achieving artillery superiority at least in some frontline areas, a key step toward military victories in a war now fought mostly on flat, open steppe at long ranges.

Quote
“Artillery is very much the business of quantity,” Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at C.N.A., a research institute in Arlington, Va., said in a telephone interview. “The Russians are one of the largest artillery armies you can face.”

Quote
Military analysts say the full effect won’t be felt for at least another two weeks, because Ukraine has yet to train enough soldiers to fire all 90 such howitzers pledged by the United States and other allies. Only about a dozen guns are now at the front.

Quote
Still, the new, longer-ranged Western artillery are the most powerful and destructive of the many types now being provided by NATO countries. They fire three miles farther than the most common artillery system used by the Russian army in the Ukraine war, the Msta-S self-propelled howitzer — and 10 miles farther if shooting a precision, GPS-guided projectile.


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/world/europe/us-ukraine-howitzers.html
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Woody
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« Reply #11591 on: May 24, 2022, 02:23:58 AM »



In the road to cut off the Sieverodonetsk highway, Vasylivka village has been taken by the Russians.

https://t.me/lumsrc/1535

A few moments ago near Myronivskyi which was occupied yesterday, Svitlodarsk has been captured by the Russians too.


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BG-NY
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« Reply #11592 on: May 24, 2022, 04:22:59 AM »

So this is something I’ve been wondering about for a while. PNTR with Russia was pulled months ago. But there hasn’t been any movement on tariffs.

Why won’t Biden place tariffs on Russia? Is he going to soon?

I know you have an obsession with 19th century economic policy, but big tariff walls are not actually a good idea. And why would Biden do that when we already have a high prices crisis? This wouldn't do much additional damage to the Russians anyway.
I am considering voting for Biden in 2024 because he isn’t a free trader.
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Woody
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« Reply #11593 on: May 24, 2022, 06:25:26 AM »

According to Neil Hauer (Who is reporting from/with the UA forces) the Bakhmut-Lysychansk road has now been cut off. If true, the only supply route left to Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk has to go through Siversk.


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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11594 on: May 24, 2022, 06:33:06 AM »

According to Neil Hauer (Who is reporting from/with the UA forces) the Bakhmut-Lysychansk road has now been cut off.




That leaves one "big" road for Ukraine into the Lychansk-Sieverodonetsk area, plus smaller roads and the open country, all of which is likely to be under heavy fire if Russian can fortify its positions and/or still feels confident in the local airspace.

It seems like the last chance saloon for a retreat (or resupply) from this far out, but Ukrainian defenders may want to dig in and take grim advantage of urban combat.
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Woody
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« Reply #11595 on: May 24, 2022, 06:38:41 AM »

According to Neil Hauer (Who is reporting from/with the UA forces) the Bakhmut-Lysychansk road has now been cut off.




That leaves one "big" road for Ukraine into the Lychansk-Sieverodonetsk area, plus smaller roads and the open country, all of which is likely to be under heavy fire if Russian can fortify its positions and/or still feels confident in the local airspace.

It seems like the last chance saloon for a retreat (or resupply) from this far out, but Ukrainian defenders may want to dig in and take grim advantage of urban combat.
Yeah. The Siversk road is still viable for withdrawal.. and supply, albeit it's much longer and time consuming, near the front/highly exposed and might fall soon too. I won't speculate if UA will withdraw from Lysychansk-Sieverodonetsk since that's a huge decision & turning point.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #11596 on: May 24, 2022, 06:39:46 AM »

Three months today, of course.

Its always worthwhile to ask where you expected things to be at this point when it started.
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Woody
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« Reply #11597 on: May 24, 2022, 06:59:22 AM »

Or on second thought it might already be too late to evacuate, and now it's just holding out as long as possible (Mariupol 2.0?)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11598 on: May 24, 2022, 07:06:19 AM »

Or on second thought it might already be too late to evacuate, and now it's just holding out as long as possible (Mariupol 2.0?)

Smaller than Mariupol and no access to the sea, but not nearly as far behind enemy lines.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11599 on: May 24, 2022, 07:14:38 AM »
« Edited: May 24, 2022, 07:21:49 AM by Skill and Chance »


Edit: additionally, if Russia "wins" land by even more barbaric and dangerous tactics (i.e. nukes), it loses even more internationally. China, for instance, would not want Russia to suggest to Taiwan etc. that they must develop their own nuclear programs or get nuked, but this is what nuking Ukraine would do.

That is already explicitly part of the PRC's red line on an all-out assault on ROC.   The PRC has been very public, clear, and explicit that ROC getting nuclear weapons or making consituatonal changes to the ROC Constitution that cuts territorial ties to Mainland China would automatically mean an all-out PLA assault on ROC. 

There was actually a secret ROC nuclear weapons program that got started in 1967 under Chiang Kai-Shek.  It was so secret that when ROC Prez Chiang Ching-Kuo's health deteriorated in the mid-1980s his stepmother Madame Chiang Kai-Shek stepped in as the head of an alternative chain of command to help move this nuclear weapon program along to make sure most of the military and political leadership is kept in the dark about it.   Had it progressed I think ROC would have had nuclear weapons by the early 1990s.  In 1987 this program was discovered by the CIA which pressured the ROC to terminate the program for fear that the PRC will find out soon and launch an all-out assault on ROC.  There was talk in the KMT administration in the 1990s of restarting it but it was decided that it was KMT policy to prioritize negotiations with CCP as the long-term solution to PRC-ROC problems.  A core DPP value is anti-nuclear power and DPP administrations have done everything to remove nuclear material from ROC including shutting down all nuclear power plants.  As a result, we can safely assume that a DPP or KMT administration would not have anything to do with nuclear weapons.

PRC-ROC relation is a flashpoint for conflict but ROC getting nuclear weapons can be safely ruled out as a source of open conflict.

Even if Taiwan didn't, there's a high chance that Vietnam, South Korea, or Japan would, all of which would make confrontations between these countries and China MUCH more dangerous in the future.

And also, Russia actually using nuclear weapons in Ukraine might very well cause the Taiwanese to think differently about nuclear weapons. Even if the probability is low, it's still high enough to be a major reason why Russian use of nuclear weapons would be a danger to China.

Probably Australia and Poland, too! Eventually, this road probably leads to every country with GDP per capita >$10K or so building nukes.   
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