Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1522266272943251458
Ukraine confirming they took Staryi Saltiv back as Russia launched a failed counter attack on it

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1522286945782710273
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1522294910648565761
https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1522240237744930821
It’s the battle of Kyiv all over again 🤩

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am seeing rumblings on Twitter that Ukraine is shifting into a phase of their war plan that is focused on offensive action. Some of the initial reports posted above seems to confirm this. It is my hope that if they are making this shift now, they are confident that they will be successful in clearing a fair amount of land of their Russian occupiers. With that said, we've been hearing about the impending liberation of Kherson for some time now so, who knows?

If true, how long of a window does Ukraine have until the effects of Russian general mobilization kick in?

From my understanding, it could take months to mobilize Russia which carries a major political risk for Putin—some of the people that are generally exempt from conscription may have to serve. Also, the new conscripts are most likely going to be poorly trained (unlike the Ukrainians), so it may not have that much of an impact (especially within the next few months)

For Putin, I think the risk is small compared to the risk of being perceived to have failed in Russia. Perhaps the land bridge to Crimea is a sufficient off-ramp, but even this is not yet achieved. It will be once Azovstall falls, but keeping it secure could require a wider mobilisation.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/DemeryUK/status/1522201486654066688

[Storr]

Tankies in shambles:

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1522248800278130688?s=20&t=mzs3AhWrAF9C...

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522242974570188807?s=20&t=cVfQzt8-...

I doubt it's a coincidence the "DNR" presented a statue of Granny Anya in Mariupol yesterday and the day after the Ukrainians released their [heavily edited] interview the "real" Granny Anya. Predictably, as Kevin Rothrock mentions later in his thread, the Russians are claiming she was kidnapped by the Ukrainians.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1521977442331770882?s=20&t=mzs3AhWr...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Funny thing that occurred to me... unlike Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union largely managed to break up peacefully in 1991. Except that the war that didn't happen back then happens now, thirty years later.

If the instigators of the August Coup had been more successfully though, it could have already occurred in the 90s.

What I'm trying to say is... perhaps it was more or less inevitable, and it only needed the right wrong person to be in charge in Moscow.

[2952-0-0]

It's been claimed that Putin had spent the past two years of self-isolation by listening to and reading from a variety of crackpots, while the normal affairs of state were allowed to languish. And, it was widely recognized that Russia's demographic and economic fundamentals would have made waging a major war much harder with every passing year. Also, Ukraine's army would have continued to further improve with every passing year, with its economy becoming wealthier as it further integrated into the EU. Perhaps, Putin saw this as the last chance for him to do what he always wanted, at the lowest cost.

But then again, without the you-know-what, you-know-who would still be in the White House, and who knows what would have happened next.

[Storr]

Funny thing that occurred to me... unlike Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union largely managed to break up peacefully in 1991. Except that the war that didn't happen back then happens now, thirty years later.

If the instigators of the August Coup had been more successfully though, it could have already occurred in the 90s.

What I'm trying to say is... perhaps it was more or less inevitable, and it only needed the right wrong person to be in charge in Moscow.

The war was inevitable as long as a pervasive revanchist "great power" neo imperialist mindset existed among the military and political elite post-Soviet Russia. If it wasn't Putin, it would have been some other former mid-level Soviet official or officer that succeeded Yeltsin who would have followed a similar authoritarian and militaristic path.

[DINGO Joe]

I am seeing rumblings on Twitter that Ukraine is shifting into a phase of their war plan that is focused on offensive action. Some of the initial reports posted above seems to confirm this. It is my hope that if they are making this shift now, they are confident that they will be successful in clearing a fair amount of land of their Russian occupiers. With that said, we've been hearing about the impending liberation of Kherson for some time now so, who knows?

If true, how long of a window does Ukraine have until the effects of Russian general mobilization kick in?

About 8 to 10 years.

[The Mikado]

I am seeing rumblings on Twitter that Ukraine is shifting into a phase of their war plan that is focused on offensive action. Some of the initial reports posted above seems to confirm this. It is my hope that if they are making this shift now, they are confident that they will be successful in clearing a fair amount of land of their Russian occupiers. With that said, we've been hearing about the impending liberation of Kherson for some time now so, who knows?

If true, how long of a window does Ukraine have until the effects of Russian general mobilization kick in?

This is a REALLY good question. You can't just snap your fingers and have the army just appear. It might well take 2-3 months before anyone gained from mobilization actually shows up in Ukraine.

[Virginiá]

This is a REALLY good question. You can't just snap your fingers and have the army just appear. It might well take 2-3 months before anyone gained from mobilization actually shows up in Ukraine.

God help the poor 18-19 year olds who want nothing to do with fighting Ukrainians they draft and send into Ukraine just to be incinerated inside of some Soviet-era steel death trap.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1522377325945495552

[AndyHogan14]

👀👀👀
https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1522380628829822976?s=21&t=QNeP2kxW9...
Hopefully this turns out to be true…

[Storr]

👀👀👀
https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1522380628829822976?s=21&t=QNeP2kxW9...
Hopefully this turns out to be true…

I'm staying very skeptical, just as I was when the Moskva when first reported sunk.

https://twitter.com/redanblacattack/status/1522368646479331332?s=20&t=Wez3gG...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Correction there are reports of shelling near Izium and reports of Ukraine troops crossing the Donets River, so the Izium counterattack seems to be simultaneously happening with the Kharkiv one not the same event

Putin is going to be so embarrassed when Russia is losing ground near Kharkiv and the Donbass on his big 'victory' parade on May 9th.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Funny thing that occurred to me... unlike Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union largely managed to break up peacefully in 1991. Except that the war that didn't happen back then happens now, thirty years later.

If the instigators of the August Coup had been more successfully though, it could have already occurred in the 90s.

What I'm trying to say is... perhaps it was more or less inevitable, and it only needed the right wrong person to be in charge in Moscow.

There was the Transnistria War.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Day 70 of the special military operation to denazify Ukraine because Hitler was a Jew:


While the Russian government has beef with Israel, the Russian Orthodox Church has now beef with the Vatican because of the Pope's "altar boy" comment.


https://twitter.com/josephcalogero2/status/1521874526820356099

Francis was right.

He was, and what it makes it even better is that this comment came in the middle of an interview in which he was otherwise a little anemic in terms of support for Ukraine--not pro-Russia, but treating it as a great power conflict over a buffer state rather than a situation in which Ukraine has agency, expressing unrealistic optimism about diplomacy with Putin, etc. So he's genuinely, individually pissed off at Kirill in particular for allowing himself and his church to be roped into propagandizing for all this--as well he should be!

[Middle-aged Europe]

German defence minister Christine Lambrecht confirms that seven Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers will be supplied to Ukraine.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dwnews/status/1522460034969800705

[Meclazine for Israel]

I think the US and it's Allies saying that they are going to crush the Russian military threat and admit they are providing intelligence to sink ships etc.

If Russia feels threatened, they may freak out.

[GoTfan]

I think the US and it's Allies saying that they are going to crush the Russian military threat and admit they are providing intelligence to sink ships etc.

If Russia feels threatened, they may freak out.

My concern is what Putin will do if he loses in Donbass. He can't admit defeat, so what's he gonna do if his conventional army loses?

[Woody]

Huge news

https://twitter.com/KonotopW/status/1522505047426453507

[rc18]

Take with a pinch of salt, but there are growing rumours that Russia's submarine fleet may get a new vessel.

There were rumours yesterday that the Admiral Makarov had been hit, but then not much corroborating evidence turned up.

Now there's growing signs an Admiral Grigorovich-class ship (which the Makarov is one of) may be in trouble near Snake Island. Notably these are modern ships, with the next most extensive anti-air cover after the Moskva.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1522507395750146048?s=20&t=eVAaFy2-MXRg...

[rc18]

UK paper The Independent is now reporting it...

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1522532243679424513?s=20&t=DUU1u46NsA...

I wouldn't regard it as confirmed yet, still lacking firm evidence, but we'll see.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Those Ukrainians are steely-eyed missile men.

[dead0man]

couple of days old, but Hamas takes trip to Moscow

A Hamas delegation lands in Moscow to meet with officials in the Russian Foreign Ministry.

The delegation is made up of Hamas officials based outside of Gaza.

Hamas has seen its ties with Russia improve in recent years. Last month, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh held a rare phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.