Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Winter War moment:

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1516745991772413956?s=20&t=fj6bpVlO...

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1516779649300377604



https://twitter.com/KyleWOrton/status/1516686199024463881

[Torie]

My brain does odd things, and this morning in the context of having read about the Russian war crimes in Syria, I asked myself just why Russia got involved with Syria. What does Syria have to offer them other than headaches. It has no resources to speak of, it really has nothing that anyone would want, other than an abundance terrorists and jihadists and so forth along with a thuggish leader. It just made no sense to me. So I googled around  to find the answer and lo and behold up popped a new New Yorker article. This article is more in the context of why Russia has not been as vicious yet in Ukraine, and what are the prospects that it will, and really lash out in frustration that the war is not going well for them.

Alas the article offers thin beer as to why Russia interjected itself in Syria, the usual bs to me gruel about big power rivalries and the like. Big powers rivaling over Syria need the heads examined. Anyway, if somehow has a more satisfying answer as to why Putin did his sh*t in Syria, feel free to share. Or maybe it is just because Putin really is a vicious rabid dog that needs to be euthanized. Thanks in advance.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/reexamining-putins-military-interventions-in-the-middle-east

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

My brain does odd things, and this morning in the context of having read about the Russian war crimes in Syria, I asked myself just why Russia got involved with Syria. What does Syria have to offer them other than headaches. It has no resources to speak of, it really has nothing that anyone would want, other than an abundance terrorists and jihadists and so forth along with a thuggish leader. It just made no sense to me. So I googled around  to find the answer and lo and behold up popped a new New Yorker article. This article is more in the context of why Russia has not been as vicious yet in Ukraine, and what are the prospects that it will, and really lash out in frustration that the war is not going well for them.

Alas the article offers thin beer as to why Russia interjected itself in Syria, the usual bs to me gruel about big power rivalries and the like. Big powers rivaling over Syria need the heads examined. Anyway, if somehow has a more satisfying answer as to why Putin did his sh*t in Syria, feel free to share. Or maybe it is just because Putin really is a vicious rabid dog that needs to be euthanized. Thanks in advance.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/reexamining-putins-military-interventions-in-the-middle-east

Syria provides Russia’s only naval base (and, post-intervention, air base) in the Mediterranean.  A sympathetic government was required for force projection.

Russia shared the international interest of crushing IS, and the West wasn’t really prepared to do much about its attacks on Assad’s territory. There were ex-Chechen/Caucacsus fighters among the other rebel groups and Russia also had an interest in ensuring their operations were quashed in Syria before they could move abroad.

Apart from anything else, Syria was a longstanding Russian ally which had some resources and a history of a bright future (perhaps there were hopes to revive that at the time of the intervention, but it’s not happened yet). Allowing its government to fall could have damaged their international credibility - this was especially true in the latter stages of the war, when the Arab Spring was well and truly over and the rebel groups had gotten increasingly nasty. There would probably have been ethnic cleansing of minorities in Latakia and Tartus had the Assad regime capitulated after 2015, which would have worsened this problem for Russia and other Syrian allies.

[Estrella]

Fighting to the last Ukrainian..

This is such a fascinating turn of phrase. It's as if to say "oh look, Ukrainians just want to be conquered in peace, it's the imperialist West that wants them to have their own country." Of course, these same people also never stop corncern trolling about Azov, Bandera, ethnonationalists and all that. The enemy is both strong and weak.

[Woody]

Russian troops have advanced at Dibrovne village near Izyum, attempted to advance at Stara Hnylytsia village near Chuhuiv:

https://t.me/hueviykharkov/55964

In Popasna the Russians are making slow gains:

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/20168

To the east of Dibrovne near the push for Sloviansk the Ukranians still control Dovhenke:

https://t.me/babel/15833

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1516788847161524228

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1516856304865890308?s=20&t=kdiIF9OO...

[urutzizu]

https://twitter.com/MSnegovaya/status/1516785963644633096
https://www.rbc.ru/finances/20/04/2022/625ffd519a7947196d66f36c

Russian sanctioned banks will not be able to issue UnionPay cards

UnionPay is afraid to cooperate with a number of large Russian banks because of the risk of secondary sanctions, RBC learned. Sanctioned banks that issued such cards or planned to do so are forced to abandon projects. [...] An interlocutor close to Sberbank said that the bank’s employees were told about such a decision by the Chinese payment system at a closed meeting, so Sberbank will not issue these cards.

The possibility of issuing a UnionPay card was also considered or already worked on this by Alfa-Bank, Otkritie, VTB . Promsvyazbank, which issued UnionPay cards even before falling under the sanctions, stopped doing this, the call center of the credit institution said. Three RBC sources in banks claim that these credit institutions will not be able to issue UnionPay cards due to fears of the payment system [UnionPay] itself. Two more sources explain that UnionPay put the negotiations on pause without explanation. “The project is temporarily on pause, they do not officially confirm the connection with the sanctions, they say that it is on pause until further notice,” one of them said.

UnionPay is the Chinese equivalent of Visa/Mastercard. Visa/Mastercard have shut down international operations in Russia after the sanctions (the effect, as far as I have heard is that Russian cards still work for the time being inside Russia, but not internationally and international cards don't work in Russia). The Russian plan/cope for the last few weeks was that UnionPay would be connected Russia’s internal Mir card services network and simply replace Visa/Mastercard.

However the sanctions have made UnionPay get cold feet. The US doesn't actually have secondary sanctions against Chinese companies that do business in Russia (yet), but the threats by treasury/commerce dept over the last few weeks as well as the primary full blocking sanctions against major Russian banks have done the job anyway. Even as the Chinese government tries to avoid choosing one side or the other, Chinese businesses are increasingly making that choice. And their choice is not Russia.

[Middle-aged Europe]

DENAZIFICATION


https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1516519929029222410

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1516481166735560729?s=20&t=D2ukzJNHk...



But also have Ukraine join NATO.

Even if Ukraine does not join NATO, they will still be trained and provided with the latest technology by NATO.

[Frodo]

Now is the real test for Ukraine, its 'trial by fire'.  If it not only survives but pushes back the latest Russian offensive, we should seriously consider letting Ukraine join not just the European Union, but also to begin the NATO membership process.     

[Storr]

And yes there is a New York, Ukraine in Donetsk Oblast, population 9,913, located 38km NNE of Donetsk.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1516765601682927620?s=20&t=ZTdUKN9ZdDXRaJq1...

[2952-0-0]

Assuming Ukraine emerges as a sovereign and democratic state, it will be impossible for it not to acquire Japan-style nuclear threshold status - no nukes officially, but the ability to build a sizeable arsenal if the government gives an order within a few weeks. And once that happens, it will be impossible to convince Iran not to build nukes. Non- proliferation will be all but dead.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1516918727614382080
https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1516918730281865220
https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1516918731515084801

[HillGoose]

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1516481166735560729?s=20&t=D2ukzJNHk...
But also have Ukraine join NATO.

Here we go again. Fighting to the last Ukrainian.. if these politicians actually cared about Ukraine they should have gone 100% full in when they had a chance, not pussyfooting for decades, not dangling NATO membership, made security guarantees, etc. This would have never have happened if Trump was president.

yeah bcuz trump is a cowardly pussy

[Storr]

Good news.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1516936341526876160?s=20&t=tJBQf1qh3aX...

[The Free North]

Is it just me or does Scholz come off as pretty detestable right now?

Every other country seems to be pulling its weight but the Germans have been dragging their feet for weeks. Is he a Putin sympathizer? Afraid of escalation? What is the political calculus here....

[Tintrlvr]

Is it just me or does Scholz come off as pretty detestable right now?

Every other country seems to be pulling its weight but the Germans have been dragging their feet for weeks. Is he a Putin sympathizer? Afraid of escalation? What is the political calculus here....

Scholz is nothing new in German politics. This is exactly what Merkel would be doing if she were still around, and the last chancellor before Merkel, well...

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1516481166735560729?s=20&t=D2ukzJNHk...
But also have Ukraine join NATO.

This would have never have happened if Trump was president.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hxGgnI6kCrs

[NOVA Green]

Didn't see this posted yet, but looks like the US confirmed today that the size of the Ukrainian Airforce just went up about (20) planes, despite no new ones having arrived.

As Russia ramps up its offensive in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian air force has returned more than 20 of its fighter and bomber aircraft back to operational flight status over the past three weeks, as a result of receiving spare parts shipments coordinated by the United States, a senior U.S. defense official said on Wednesday.

Also, on a slightly separate note but somewhat related (Air War):

Russian bombers have been observed flying over the besieged southern city of Mariupol, the official said, even though the airspace across the country remains contested by Ukrainian warplanes and ground forces.

Russian forces have largely ceased airstrikes and missile attacks across western Ukraine, the official said, and are focusing those strikes on Mariupol and the Donbas, in the east, where Russia has been moving in additional forces, including helicopters and support troops.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/20/world/ukraine-russia-war-donbas/the-us-is-bolstering-ukrainian-artillery-and-air-power?smid=url-copy

[NOVA Green]

Anybody looking to buy the famous Ukrainian postage stamp is currently out of luck since it has officially sold out.

Now I'm really wishing that I had bought it last weekend using a one-time bankcard transaction.

Still, I don't mind buying on eBay from a Ukrainian seller who can likely use the extra $$$ right now because of their personal situation, or towards a seller who is legit earmarking profits for Ukrainian Relief Efforts...

Ukrainians waited for hours outside post offices this week to buy stamps with a profane image of defiance that has become a symbol of the country’s resistance. On Wednesday, they found out that the now iconic stamps had sold out.

“As of now nearly 700,000 stamps have been sold and the sale of stamps in our branches is done,” Igor Smelyansky, Ukraine’s postal service director, said in a Facebook post.

The stamps have quickly become a collectors’ item outside Ukraine, selling on eBay for $20 to $100 each, rather than their face value of under $2, with some sellers pledging to give proceeds to charity.

Mr. Smelyansky said the post office had reserved stamps for 1,500 people who on Wednesday were in line at the main post office in the capital, Kyiv, but were unable to buy them. He said a limited number of stamps would be made available online, but that to retain the value for collectors, no more would be printed.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/20/world/ukraine-russia-war-donbas/ukraines-profane-stamp-that-has-become-a-symbol-of-resistance-sells-out?smid=url-copy

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1516939533413064704
More and more on the ground it’s looking like Russia’s new offensive is going to be another dud 😁

[Storr]

Lol Snowden

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1516932980694040577?s=20&t=IiL2giw...

[Frodo]

Russian soldiers are going to be winning so many Darwin awards -if they survive their radiation poisoning long enough to receive them, that is:

Russian soldiers accused of stealing radioactive ‘souvenirs’ from Chernobyl