Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Dover, Delaware AFB straight to Ukraine!

No American Body Bags coming home yet from Europe, but pretty clear that "Uncle Sam Does Give a Damn".

https://twitter.com/CBSWalsh/status/1514576852236615687?s=20&t=oqikZ5un6K5Tn...

[Logical]

https://tass.com/society/1123855/

Losing holy relics is the most Second Rome thing to do by Third Rome.

[NOVA Green]

Can't believe you all fell for the nonsense Ukranian Nazi Propaganda. Great warship has ability to be a submarine now. We are now figuring how to raise it back up.

Well too be fair, apparently Mussolini could not only stop the flow of lava from Mt Etna, but apparently also stop the drought in Libya!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ukrainian army's numbers, so worth taking with a grain of salt. But even if there's some overcount, staggering numbers.

Slava Ukraini!

[Astatine]

Can't believe you all fell for the nonsense Ukranian Nazi Propaganda. Great warship has ability to be a submarine now. We are now figuring how to raise it back up.

It's a special diving operation to demonstrate the versality of Russian warfare equipment!

[ugabug]

This whole thread is well worth a read but here's a few good snippets from it.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1514761230887657474

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1514761234708668422

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1514761235660779521

[Middle-aged Europe]

Can't believe you all fell for the nonsense Ukranian Nazi Propaganda. Great warship has ability to be a submarine now. We are now figuring how to raise it back up.

It's a special diving operation to demonstrate the versality of Russian warfare equipment!

The Russians probably insist that the Moskva was sunk due to an accident so that they can stick to the party line that this just a "special military operation". Flagships aren't sunk through enemy action in a special military operation. That only happens in war and "war" is the bad word.

Given that the Russian government's attempts at shielding its (especially younger) population against outside information are porous at best (VPN), this will undoubtedly trickle through to the streets of Moscow, St. Petersburg and so on. The strategic value of sinking that ship is probably rather limited, but the impact on morale could be significant. Hopefully it leads to people questioning "can we actually win this and if so how much would it cost us?". When Iraq started to go badly for America it evoked comparisons with Vietnam, maybe this will evoke comparisons with Afghanistan.

[Person Man]

https://tass.com/society/1123855/

Losing holy relics is the most Second Rome thing to do by Third Rome.

Is 2024 shaping up to be 1204?

[Middle-aged Europe]

There now needs to be a "The Virgin Moskva vs. The Chad Ukrainian Anti-Naval Defense" meme!

I've been a huge star wars fan my whole life, and I always thought this scene was a bit kitschy/lame. Well...as an adult I guess I should say(as a kid I would lose my freaking mind every one of the 1,000 times I watched ROTJ and this scene came along). An A-wing taking out the main bridge and navigation/engine capability of a Super Star Destroyer? Also, it's space, so what's causing the ship to fall, and so quickly? The Death Star's gravity? A bit of a stretch even by star wars' flimsy science standards.

That being said, if a meme was made replacing the A-wing with a Neptune missile and the Executor with the Moskva, that would probably immediately be my new favorite meme of all time.

It's probably supposed to be David vs. Goliath moment and yeah, the Star Destroyer "rudderlessly" veering off course and crashing into the Death Star seems be a huge naval-inspired "space is an ocean" analogy just like all the starfighters seem to conducting aerial dogfights all the time like they would in an atmosphere instead of the vaccum of space.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1514766062771875851?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...So, according to Russia, Ukraine didn't sink the ship, it was an accident.  But also, it's Ukraine's fault that it sank and they need to punished for it, this is an act of war!


I'm interested to hear Woody's take.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1514766062771875851?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...So, according to Russia, Ukraine didn't sink the ship, it was an accident.  But also, it's Ukraine's fault that it sank and they need to punished for it, this is an act of war!


I'm interested to hear Woody's take.

The actual reason for Moskva's sinking is probably what you would call an open secret in Russia. Also, their government quickly rushed to call it an accident so they just can't change the official story now... "oooops, we were mistaken about the first reports that it was an accident"?

[Storr]

Advanced high tech Russian weaponry and skill:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1514872500181680135?s=20&t=B3trKQn...

[Storr]

I'm sure this will convince Poland to stop helping Ukraine instead of further angering the Polish people. Katyn is where the Soviet NKVD executed 22,000 Polish military officers and intellectuals in spring 1940, following the Soviet invasion of Poland in 1939.

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1514894841309708295?s=20&t=B3trKQnz...

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe it will, sooner or later, dawn on at least some in Russia that making all sorts of scary threats without the ability to follow them up is actually counter productive?

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/1514937815905316866?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

And it would appear the Moskva captain is among the casualties.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1514932901418254339?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

[Middle-aged Europe]

And it would appear the Moskva captain is among the casualties.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1514932901418254339?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

The Lithanian defence minister said that a Turkish ship had responded to the Moskva's distress call, rescuing 54 Russian sailors at 2 a.m. on April 14, before the ship finally sank at 3 a.m., which depending how many of the original crew was still on board at the time implies a rather high casualty rate from the sinking.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/turkish-ship-rescued-54-sailors-on-damaged-russian-naval-cruiser-moskva/2564125

[Virginiá]

You could probably argue the captain was dead no matter what, whether it was the missile strike or falling out of a window after Putin puts him on house arrest for losing a $750 million flagship.

[Frodo]

Putin could theoretically throw Russia's entire military might against Ukraine, but it might be worth for him (and those around him...) to remember this: this is first and foremost a war for his existential survival -not Russia's.  This isn't the Great Patriotic War.  Russia can afford to walk away from this war with its territorial integrity intact if it chose.    

[Middle-aged Europe]

Putin could theoretically throw Russia's entire military might against Ukraine, but it might be worth for him to remember this: this is first and foremost a war for his existential survival -not Russia's.  This isn't the Great Patriotic War.  Russia can afford to walk away from this war with its territorial integrity intact if it chose.   

The case Putin is trying to make is that Russia's territorial integrity hasn't been intact since 1991, following a Duginist reasing that the Soviet Union was essentially a Russian sphere of influence or a Russian Empire under a different name. Of course he needs to succeed in convincing enough people of that. So far he does succeed, more or less, but we don't know how the situation would look when the "special military operation" enters its Year Two.

[pppolitics]

So unconfirmed social media reports is that Putin has had the Chief Admiral of the Black Sea Fleet arrested, which probably means Putin is going to pull a Darth Vader on him if true.

Not really a scapegoat though, the guy was on the Moskva and thus made the choice to pursue a Ukrainian drone. I believe they shot down the drone but in the process put the ship in a blind spot which allowed the Neptune missiles to hit it. Taking the bait was an amateur mistake.

There's now way for Russia to replace the Moskva because they only have two other comparable ships and neither is in particularly good working order. Even if they were or if Russia opted to ignore this, they can't make it to the Black Sea without going through the straight in Turkey, which won't let them in. And the Moskva was also shielding the rest of the Black Sea Fleet from the Neptunes, it was the only ship in the fleet with a notable anti-missile defense. Hence why the rest of the fleet has withdrawn to safe areas. They can't go out again without being exposed to the anti-ship defenses.

So Ukraine actually has naval superiority now. Who would've ever expected that?

There is the Ukraina, which is 95% completed and is sitting in a Mykolayiv Shipyard.

Russia would have to spend $30 million dollars to complete it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_cruiser_Ukraina

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maybe it will, sooner or later, dawn on at least some in Russia that making all sorts of scary threats without the ability to follow them up is actually counter productive?

This is a good point and leads neatly to a very important one: the present Russian leadership (largely comprised of people in their late 60s and early 70s: the remains of the last Komsomol cohort to reach middle management before the Collapse) act as if they had the resources available to them that Soviet leaders had forty years ago. And they just don't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Men's Volleyball World Championship was scheduled the be held in Russia this year but it has been moved to Poland and Russia has been banned. So their spot was given to the team ranked next in line.

And what country's team was that? Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/adfghijklm/status/1514755066192105474
https://twitter.com/volleyballworld/status/1514909772021174275

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1514948701072019461

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1514948701072019461

Probably not that many ,, if the ship was being towed back . It definitely would have had plenty of time to evacuate non essential crew.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So unconfirmed social media reports is that Putin has had the Chief Admiral of the Black Sea Fleet arrested, which probably means Putin is going to pull a Darth Vader on him if true.

Not really a scapegoat though, the guy was on the Moskva and thus made the choice to pursue a Ukrainian drone. I believe they shot down the drone but in the process put the ship in a blind spot which allowed the Neptune missiles to hit it. Taking the bait was an amateur mistake.

There's now way for Russia to replace the Moskva because they only have two other comparable ships and neither is in particularly good working order. Even if they were or if Russia opted to ignore this, they can't make it to the Black Sea without going through the straight in Turkey, which won't let them in. And the Moskva was also shielding the rest of the Black Sea Fleet from the Neptunes, it was the only ship in the fleet with a notable anti-missile defense. Hence why the rest of the fleet has withdrawn to safe areas. They can't go out again without being exposed to the anti-ship defenses.

So Ukraine actually has naval superiority now. Who would've ever expected that?

Ukraine probably doesn’t have many anti-ship missiles (yet), Russia has plenty and Ukraine has suffered worse naval losses, especially as a proportion of its (smaller) fleet.

The potential increase in the Ukranian ASM inventory and the loss of the Moskva will make amphibious landings harder for Russia and challenge their naval superiority near the coast, but it won’t break Russia’s distant maritime blockade and it hasn’t yet rendered the Ukrainian Navy and Sea Guard stronger than the Black Sea Fleet.

I think your claim is premature at best. The main implication of this loss is that the Russian Navy has finally joined the Army and Air Force in embarrassing themselves.