Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[rc18]

Britain will be sending anti aircraft missiles.

https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/1504108160931426305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Though a quick google search says it's a short range missile.

These are one of the world's most advanced man-portable anti aircraft missles. Longer range than Stingers, over mach 3 missile velocity, and can't be jammed. If you have one of these on your tail you are almost guaranteed to have a bad day.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

These are Switchblade 300 loitering munitions, or "kamikaze" drones. They aren't very powerful though, the longer range anti-tank 600 would be much more useful, but I doubt the US will allow those to be sent.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

It hasn't escaped my notice that a disproportionate number of the latter seem to be taking place in Mariupol. I'm sure some of that is just because it's siege warfare, but I also am starting to wonder if perhaps there are some especially bad (or sick) guys among the Russian operational commanders there.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

It hasn't escaped my notice that a disproportionate number of the latter seem to be taking place in Mariupol. I'm sure some of that is just because it's siege warfare, but I also am starting to wonder if perhaps there are some especially bad (or sick) guys among the Russian operational commanders there.

Considering that Berdaynsk etc. and the surrounding countryside have been taken, this is where the Azov Battalion is strongest (I wouldn't be surprised if the overwhelming majority of their remaining fighters were stationed there). They have a lot of ugly history with the DPR militias who want revenge, and wrecking the place with the highest concentration of neo-Nazis makes for better PR than turning Kyiv into Grozny.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504170882985607174

[Logical]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

[Torie]

In the ongoing on and off again saga of the S-300 missiles, vis a vis the US, they are off. While Biden does not mind other nations giving Ukraine such missiles, the US will not. Why?  KISS. They are too complicated he thinks for Ukraine to use effectively and something might go "wrong." And the US does not want to send personnel to help. So says CNN.

Does this make a lot of sense to this particular challenged old mind? Not really.

Anyone here a pro in using S-300 missiles? Dead0man? Anyone here run a country that has a few that they could spare?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1504185790485647363

[Torie]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

[It’s so Joever]

In the ongoing on and off again saga of the S-300 missiles, vis a vis the US, they are off. While Biden does not mind other nations giving Ukraine such missiles, the US will not. Why?  KISS. They are too complicated he thinks for Ukraine to use effectively and something might go "wrong." And the US does not want to send personnel to help. So says CNN.

Does this make a lot of sense to this particular challenged old mind? Not really.

Anyone here a pro in using S-300 missiles? Dead0man? Anyone here run a country that has a few that they could spare?

!?

[Logical]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

[Torie]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Thanks. To ask the obvious, what does "legal status" in Crimea Ukraine mean?

In other news, a NYT reporter, a Mr. Max Fisher. puts up a piece about nuclear war odds going up, still low, but up. The reasons stated are the obvious ones we have been talking about. So if such chatter is gas lighting, then the NYT has joined the club.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/world/europe/ukraine-russia-nuclear-war.html

[rc18]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Thanks. To ask the obvious, what does "legal status" in Crimea Ukraine mean?

Russian as in the Russian language. To give it legally protected status.

BTW the Ukrainians are saying the stuff in the FT are only proposals from the Russian side, it's not something they are agreeing to.

[Storr]

mfw Russia doesn't know what camo is:

https://twitter.com/Red_2_1/status/1504177941672083456?s=20&t=YP_9vqyiY3H40j...

[pppolitics]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Thanks. To ask the obvious, what does "legal status" in Crimea Ukraine mean?

In other news, a NYT reporter, a Mr. Max Fisher. puts up a piece about nuclear war odds going up, still low, but up. The reasons stated are the obvious ones we have been talking about. So if such chatter is gas lighting, then the NYT has joined the club.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/world/europe/ukraine-russia-nuclear-war.html

Just to be clear, it's talking about the Russian language getting legal status.

[Torie]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Thanks. To ask the obvious, what does "legal status" in Crimea Ukraine mean?

In other news, a NYT reporter, a Mr. Max Fisher. puts up a piece about nuclear war odds going up, still low, but up. The reasons stated are the obvious ones we have been talking about. So if such chatter is gas lighting, then the NYT has joined the club.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/world/europe/ukraine-russia-nuclear-war.html

Just to be clear, it's talking about the Russian language getting legal status.

Oh, I see. Weird to fight a war over language status. Thank heavens Mexico does not have nukes.

[dead0man]

In the ongoing on and off again saga of the S-300 missiles, vis a vis the US, they are off. While Biden does not mind other nations giving Ukraine such missiles, the US will not. Why?  KISS. They are too complicated he thinks for Ukraine to use effectively and something might go "wrong." And the US does not want to send personnel to help. So says CNN.

Does this make a lot of sense to this particular challenged old mind? Not really.

Anyone here a pro in using S-300 missiles? Dead0man? Anyone here run a country that has a few that they could spare?

S-300s are Ukraine's primary anti-air missile system.  wiki cite  You'd have to assume that even if what we were offering was a different version than they are used to (there are a mess of flavors), it still would be a fairly easy learning curve....or not I guess.  It certainly seems like a sh**tty excuse, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is.

None of the news stories I've lightly Googled about it mention what version the US is offering.

[Storr]

Z z Z

https://twitter.com/historicfirearm/status/1504084314031628290?s=20&t=YP_9vq...

[President Johnson]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

No NATO wouldn't mean no EU, though? Remember that this is was initially sparked the entire crisis in 2013/14. It was about an association agreement the European Union, not NATO. That's also why Putin's NATO argument was always a bunch of BS, he's not afraid of NATO, he's afraid of democracy. And strong democratic norms are a key precondition for joining EU.

[dead0man]

Z z Z

https://twitter.com/historicfirearm/status/1504084314031628290?s=20&t=YP_9vq...

perhaps there has been some friendly fire incidents and the tank crews want to make extra sure a "Z" is always visible?

[OSR stands with Israel]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

No NATO wouldn't mean no EU, though? Remember that this is was initially sparked the entire crisis in 2013/14. It was about an association agreement the European Union, not NATO. That's also why Putin's NATO argument was always a bunch of BS, he's not afraid of NATO, he's afraid of democracy. And strong democratic norms are a key precondition for joining EU.

Also the stopping NATO expansion is necessary for Russian safety is bs given Russia currently has a massive deterrent against an hypothetical invasion by NATO and that is the fact they have thousands of nuclear weapons .

[Storr]

Russians bombing children, nothing new. (Warning: the video in the first tweet is graphic.)

https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1504194289395539977?s=20&t=ZX0I_xWV0Lo...

[pppolitics]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

No NATO wouldn't mean no EU, though? Remember that this is was initially sparked the entire crisis in 2013/14. It was about an association agreement the European Union, not NATO. That's also why Putin's NATO argument was always a bunch of BS, he's not afraid of NATO, he's afraid of democracy. And strong democratic norms are a key precondition for joining EU.

It said in the article:

Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that neutrality for Ukraine based on the status of Austria or Sweden was a possibility.

Both Austria and Sweden are in the EU.

[rc18]

In the ongoing on and off again saga of the S-300 missiles, vis a vis the US, they are off. While Biden does not mind other nations giving Ukraine such missiles, the US will not. Why?  KISS. They are too complicated he thinks for Ukraine to use effectively and something might go "wrong." And the US does not want to send personnel to help. So says CNN.

Does this make a lot of sense to this particular challenged old mind? Not really.

Anyone here a pro in using S-300 missiles? Dead0man? Anyone here run a country that has a few that they could spare?

S-300s are Ukraine's primary anti-air missile system.  wiki cite  You'd have to assume that even if what we were offering was a different version than they are used to (there are a mess of flavors), it still would be a fairly easy learning curve....or not I guess.  It certainly seems like a sh**tty excuse, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is.

None of the news stories I've lightly Googled about it mention what version the US is offering.

I don't know what Torie is talking about, since the US wouldn't have any S-300s to give. It is an old Soviet system that the US has never used.

[dead0man]

Presumably our friend's systems from the "old days".  Slovakia was mentioned.  Bulgaria, the Balkans, Poland probably all have them of some flavor or another.

[Torie]

In the ongoing on and off again saga of the S-300 missiles, vis a vis the US, they are off. While Biden does not mind other nations giving Ukraine such missiles, the US will not. Why?  KISS. They are too complicated he thinks for Ukraine to use effectively and something might go "wrong." And the US does not want to send personnel to help. So says CNN.

Does this make a lot of sense to this particular challenged old mind? Not really.

Anyone here a pro in using S-300 missiles? Dead0man? Anyone here run a country that has a few that they could spare?

S-300s are Ukraine's primary anti-air missile system.  wiki cite  You'd have to assume that even if what we were offering was a different version than they are used to (there are a mess of flavors), it still would be a fairly easy learning curve....or not I guess.  It certainly seems like a sh**tty excuse, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is.

None of the news stories I've lightly Googled about it mention what version the US is offering.

I don't know what Torie is talking about, since the US wouldn't have any S-300s to give. It is an old Soviet system that the US has never used.

This might help. I am a mere conduit. I have no personal knowledge of things military. And it is always possible I got things mixed up. The mind is no longer a terrible thing to waste when it goes senile.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/15/politics/biden-congress-soviet-made-weapons-ukraine/index.html