Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Badger]

New changes on the frontlines:

The Russians have made it a bit closer to Kyiv, although they still have some distance to go. Bucha and Irpin remain on the frontlines. An attempted push through Brovary was repelled successfully by the Ukrainians, which complicates the potential encirclement of Kyiv. Although small gains were made in the west of Kyiv, it wasn’t anything huge for Russia.

On the bright side for Russian forces today, the city of Chernihiv is now completely encircled. Chernihiv not only is a major regional center, but also a historical/cultural hub in the area, and losing the city would be far more devastating on national morale as opposed to any previous losses.

Progress seems to have slowed down a bit, whether this is because the Russians are taking time to reorganize for a better offensive or due to Russian failures in accounting for logistics and/or combat performance remains to be seen.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-10-22/h_a7f9e315b74913cd4d58f91015f3eba0

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10

 Wow, if even forum lurker is Reporting backsteps for the Russian military, the Ukrainian army will likely be marching int9 Moscow next week.

[dead0man]

RIP
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502298793542303747?s=20&t=x99rf99os4U5-o...

Isn't that the third general they've lost now?

Call me naïve, but I find it hard to believe that its very common for generals in major armed forces to die in combat post WWII....

We lost 1 in Afghanistan. (not in combat, unless terrorism in a warzone counts as combat...it doesn't matter, he died in Afghanistan while a General in the US military)
6 in Vietnam
47 in WWII (4 Pilipino Generals)

[Badger]

Protests continue in Russian Occupied Ukrainian Cities earlier today... Footage from Melitopol and Berdiansk (Haven't yet tracked down other non-violent protests today elsewhere)



https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1501932215755698176?s=20&t=lVK0JsZ5GoEdNK-...

https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1501932258952765447?s=20&t=lVK0JsZ5GoEdNK-...

Encouraging, but I want to see them start collecting scalps.

Who are "they" and whose "scalps" are they supposed to be collecting?

I totally understand and get it and feel the same level of pain and frustration as I read the stories, watch the images of the massive unwarranted and unjustified brutality leveled against not only the Government of Ukraine and military forces, but even more so against civilian populations throughout many parts of Ukraine, and so many actions that from my perspective clearly amount to War Crimes committed by the Russian Regime and Senior Military commanders.

I wish that I had all of the answers for the best ways to stop these atrocities and that the Russian people were able to see what is actually going on and hold those responsible fully accountable for their actions.

Still, I find your comment a bit disturbing, especially within the context of Ukrainian Civilians protesting non-violently in a couple cities under Russian military occupation.

Dehumanization of "the other" has so frequently been the rationale for those who perceive themselves to be aggrieved to then take "righteous revenge" upon the other and frequently turns into and endless cycle of violence and counter-violence.

We see that attitude hardening among many Ukrainians who are growing to hate not just Putin and his stooges, but *all Russians* after having experienced the atrocities at the hand of his war machine.

Fringe groups like the Ukrainian Neo-Nazi / "Far Right" Azov Battalion, which have played a significant role going back to the 2014 War are now producing significant casualties against Russian forces in various theaters of combat, and in many ways helped provide Putin with the "Ukrainians are Neo-Nazis" propaganda BS to sell the "Special Operation" to the Russian public.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Although I will continue to cheer Ukrainian resistance in the face of such brutality, I take equal cheer when I see Russians finding ways to challenge and confront the totalitarian nature of their own society as well.

Russian conscripts aren't the real enemy here and within Russia Occupied Ukraine angry and militant protesters marching through the centers of cities using a mixture of Russian and Ukrainian are seen as "real people" from the perspective of the Russian soldier, and not the demons they were made out to be.

 I hear what you're saying, but you can understand some of us rude almost rooting for these folks to pick up do pick up automatic rifles and start picking off Is Russian garrisons. Protests like this are good for civilian morale, but it doesn't affect Putin's push on Russia one g****** bit.

And i'm sorryAnd I'm sorry over the fact that yes not All-russian soldiers are big Putin fans and some eand some even unwilling conscripts. But the same could have been said for German forces in World War II and it didn't make me celebrate Allis deliberate Allied victories in history one iota less.

To be Blunt, let their families mourn for their deaths death. As long as this war continues, I will not, But instead will Is it as evidence of one more reason Vladimir Putin and his Circle of cronies need to be on trial at the Hague.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502077318465998848?s=20&t=p18 uid=13804]

A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.

jNK-rLQjquvtlah-kYRxA[/tweet]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502078979976613912?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502085135667187717?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502078360012349440?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

As I said before, Ukraine probably gives up joining NATO and concedes Crimea to Russia.

Putin then gets to spin that back home as a win

Do they still get into the EU? They are probably too poor but it would be a bit of a deterrent.

Yes.

In turn, Ukraine gives up any claims of reparations.

The problem is that Putin sees Ukrainian membership of NATO and the EU as one in the same. That's why Euromaidan happened in the first place, Putin pressured Yanukovych into not singing Ukraine's EU Association Agreement. The whole business about NATO expansion is just manufactured justification for Russia's aggressive actions. If NATO wasn't an issue, there would be something else used as justification. Moldova has neutrality written into the Constitution. But Russia still constantly meddles in and threatens the country for sole purpose of preventing it from integrating with Europe and pursuing EU membership.

Russia is just cutting its loss at this point.

In just about every way, Russian is worse off than before the invasion.

Russia renew NATO's vigor.

Russia's military becomes a joke.

Russia's economy is in the toilet.

 Hopefully true, but I'm seeing nominal  Indication that Russia's intent is actually to abandon wholescale conquering Ukraine, particularly based on the farce of "peace talks" which fell apart the other day in turkey.

[Badger]

It would be very interesting if the Ukraine crisis pushes Venezuela and Iran closer to the US. They wont be US allies for obvious reasons. But both nations abstained in the UN vote and are currently talking to the US about increasing gas production. Venezuela directly while Iran is under the table.

The Biden administration ripped up the Iran deal, so they left a lot of bad blood there. Venezuela might be more willing to have a deal.

You misspelled  "Trump".

[Badger]

It would be very interesting if the Ukraine crisis pushes Venezuela and Iran closer to the US. They wont be US allies for obvious reasons. But both nations abstained in the UN vote and are currently talking to the US about increasing gas production. Venezuela directly while Iran is under the table.

The Biden administration ripped up the Iran deal, so they left a lot of bad blood there. Venezuela might be more willing to have a deal.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action

The United States announced its withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the "Iran nuclear deal" or the "Iran deal", on May 8, 2018.

And Biden didn't seem too interested in reviving it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/biden-betting-republican-senators-lack-votes-derail-revival-iran-nucle-rcna18174

Now that you've been caught in two outrageously brazen and obvious lies in a row, will you apologize?  Or just keep moving the goalposts with a third lie?

Don't confuse jfern with facts.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/AndreiSoldatov/status/1502221544499601411

 This is literally getting to Stalin level s***. Well, Stalin would have had them shot, but at least pre breastniff level Soviet craziness?

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1502315019706552322

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1502315019706552322

Have fun with that.

[It’s so Joever]

New changes on the frontlines:

The Russians have made it a bit closer to Kyiv, although they still have some distance to go. Bucha and Irpin remain on the frontlines. An attempted push through Brovary was repelled successfully by the Ukrainians, which complicates the potential encirclement of Kyiv. Although small gains were made in the west of Kyiv, it wasn’t anything huge for Russia.

On the bright side for Russian forces today, the city of Chernihiv is now completely encircled. Chernihiv not only is a major regional center, but also a historical/cultural hub in the area, and losing the city would be far more devastating on national morale as opposed to any previous losses.

Progress seems to have slowed down a bit, whether this is because the Russians are taking time to reorganize for a better offensive or due to Russian failures in accounting for logistics and/or combat performance remains to be seen.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-10-22/h_a7f9e315b74913cd4d58f91015f3eba0

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10

 Wow, if even forum lurker is Reporting backsteps for the Russian military, the Ukrainian army will likely be marching int9 Moscow next week.

I’m not Russian biased lmao.
Everything I report is supported by Western sources. It’s just that this forum really is cherry-picking the times when Ukraine does well and trying to portray it as the complete truth. Look the fact is Russia still has made progress in Ukraine. Each day they do gain more land and another city/town. That is another loss of manpower and resources for Ukraine. Yes I love the videos of patriotic farmers taking military vehicles, but that doesn’t negate the frontline situation.

If anything this really is like the Winter War. While yes a huge moral blow to the Soviets and while the Finns did make a fool out of them…the Soviets still won what they wanted in the end.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/larisamlbrown/status/1502302509905416193

[Badger]

New changes on the frontlines:

The Russians have made it a bit closer to Kyiv, although they still have some distance to go. Bucha and Irpin remain on the frontlines. An attempted push through Brovary was repelled successfully by the Ukrainians, which complicates the potential encirclement of Kyiv. Although small gains were made in the west of Kyiv, it wasn’t anything huge for Russia.

On the bright side for Russian forces today, the city of Chernihiv is now completely encircled. Chernihiv not only is a major regional center, but also a historical/cultural hub in the area, and losing the city would be far more devastating on national morale as opposed to any previous losses.

Progress seems to have slowed down a bit, whether this is because the Russians are taking time to reorganize for a better offensive or due to Russian failures in accounting for logistics and/or combat performance remains to be seen.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-10-22/h_a7f9e315b74913cd4d58f91015f3eba0

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10

 Wow, if even forum lurker is Reporting backsteps for the Russian military, the Ukrainian army will likely be marching int9 Moscow next week.

I’m not Russian biased lmao.
Everything I report is supported by Western sources. It’s just that this forum really is cherry-picking the times when Ukraine does well and trying to portray it as the complete truth. Look the fact is Russia still has made progress in Ukraine. Each day they do gain more land and another city/town. That is another loss of manpower and resources for Ukraine. Yes I love the videos of patriotic farmers taking military vehicles, but that doesn’t negate the frontline situation.

If anything this really is like the Winter War. While yes a huge moral blow to the Soviets and while the Finns did make a fool out of them…the Soviets still won what they wanted in the end.

 Fair points. But I will say that you you do tend into doomer mode at times.

 I think the tweet threaded above from some dude pointing out that while the Ukraine are making tactical victories come up and Russia has been slowed, Russia Russia is still making strategic advances,  is accurate

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/larisamlbrown/status/1502302509905416193

that tells us one of three things:
1.it's not true (though I'm pretty Russia has confirmed at least two of them)
2.Russia is losing Generals at an oddly alarming rate, why?
or 3.Russia really has lost many thousands of men


My money is on number 3.  Though 2 can be true as well.  Even if it's just two KIA, that's still a lot in 2 weeks.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/larisamlbrown/status/1502302509905416193

that tells us one of three things:
1.it's not true (though I'm pretty Russia has confirmed at least two of them)
2.Russia is losing Generals at an oddly alarming rate, why?
or 3.Russia really has lost many thousands of men


My money is on number 3.  Though 2 can be true as well.  Even if it's just two KIA, that's still a lot in 2 weeks.

My personal theory is that they're getting a lot of pressure from Putin to hurry up and move and take Ukraine over already so more of them are going to the frontlines to figure out how to get the offensive moving again and in turn getting shot for their trouble.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/dwnews/status/1502290082820243456

[pppolitics]

New changes on the frontlines:

The Russians have made it a bit closer to Kyiv, although they still have some distance to go. Bucha and Irpin remain on the frontlines. An attempted push through Brovary was repelled successfully by the Ukrainians, which complicates the potential encirclement of Kyiv. Although small gains were made in the west of Kyiv, it wasn’t anything huge for Russia.

On the bright side for Russian forces today, the city of Chernihiv is now completely encircled. Chernihiv not only is a major regional center, but also a historical/cultural hub in the area, and losing the city would be far more devastating on national morale as opposed to any previous losses.

Progress seems to have slowed down a bit, whether this is because the Russians are taking time to reorganize for a better offensive or due to Russian failures in accounting for logistics and/or combat performance remains to be seen.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-10-22/h_a7f9e315b74913cd4d58f91015f3eba0

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10

 Wow, if even forum lurker is Reporting backsteps for the Russian military, the Ukrainian army will likely be marching int9 Moscow next week.

I’m not Russian biased lmao.
Everything I report is supported by Western sources. It’s just that this forum really is cherry-picking the times when Ukraine does well and trying to portray it as the complete truth. Look the fact is Russia still has made progress in Ukraine. Each day they do gain more land and another city/town. That is another loss of manpower and resources for Ukraine. Yes I love the videos of patriotic farmers taking military vehicles, but that doesn’t negate the frontline situation.

If anything this really is like the Winter War. While yes a huge moral blow to the Soviets and while the Finns did make a fool out of them…the Soviets still won what they wanted in the end.

At the end of the Winter War, one Soviet general said "We have won just about enough ground to bury our dead".

It was a pyrrhic victory.

[Omega21]

NATO AA screwed up big time.

Might be Ukrainian as well. The Russians retired these drones in '91, the Ukrainians still use them though.

https://twitter.com/tgloban/status/1502205961095761922

[It’s so Joever]

The city of Volnovakha has fallen.
This would be a major loss for the Ukrainians, as the city finally falling would free you Russian troops to put more pressure on Mariupol if needed, push North and further make things difficult for the Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk province, or move West for a possible push towards Zaporizhzhia.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-11-22/index.html

[Person Man]

The city of Volnovakha has fallen.
This would be a major loss for the Ukrainians, as the city finally falling would free you Russian troops to put more pressure on Mariupol if needed, push North and further make things difficult for the Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk province, or move West for a possible push towards Zaporizhzhia.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-11-22/index.html

It's a town almost where they started. It's actually kind of sad.

[compucomp]

New changes on the frontlines:

The Russians have made it a bit closer to Kyiv, although they still have some distance to go. Bucha and Irpin remain on the frontlines. An attempted push through Brovary was repelled successfully by the Ukrainians, which complicates the potential encirclement of Kyiv. Although small gains were made in the west of Kyiv, it wasn’t anything huge for Russia.

On the bright side for Russian forces today, the city of Chernihiv is now completely encircled. Chernihiv not only is a major regional center, but also a historical/cultural hub in the area, and losing the city would be far more devastating on national morale as opposed to any previous losses.

Progress seems to have slowed down a bit, whether this is because the Russians are taking time to reorganize for a better offensive or due to Russian failures in accounting for logistics and/or combat performance remains to be seen.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-10-22/h_a7f9e315b74913cd4d58f91015f3eba0

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10

 Wow, if even forum lurker is Reporting backsteps for the Russian military, the Ukrainian army will likely be marching int9 Moscow next week.

I’m not Russian biased lmao.
Everything I report is supported by Western sources. It’s just that this forum really is cherry-picking the times when Ukraine does well and trying to portray it as the complete truth. Look the fact is Russia still has made progress in Ukraine. Each day they do gain more land and another city/town. That is another loss of manpower and resources for Ukraine. Yes I love the videos of patriotic farmers taking military vehicles, but that doesn’t negate the frontline situation.

If anything this really is like the Winter War. While yes a huge moral blow to the Soviets and while the Finns did make a fool out of them…the Soviets still won what they wanted in the end.

I agree there is a valid comparison now with the Winter War but the Russians are doing much better than the Soviets did in that war; the Red Army got stuffed at the border for 2 months and only made approximately the gains the Russians have now by the end of the Winter War.

[President Johnson]

That was long overdue:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1502351269868060673

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1502321404414472196?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[It’s so Joever]

The Kyiv Independent reports a possible Belarussian attack tonight. No clue where exactly this would take place, maybe they would assist in Kyiv area, but what I fear most is a Western Front opening up. That area has a lot of refugees now and while Ukraine has troops over there, they are more concentrated in the East iirc. Would also explain why the bombings of Lutsk and Invano Frankisvk happened last night.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Look the fact is Russia still has made progress in Ukraine. Each day they do gain more land and another city/town. That is another loss of manpower and resources for Ukraine.

Firstly, they certainly aren't taking cities and towns on a regular basis - it is genuinely unbelievable that Mariupol is still in Ukrainian hands, for instance. I imagine that it won't be for much longer, but then I thought that a week ago. Fundamentally, though, war is not like a computer game and troops tend not to capture territory in the clearly mappable manner people often assume, unless both sides have formed into rigid entrenched lines reminiscent of the First World War.

Secondly (and critically - absolutely critically) they are taking casualties at a completely unsustainable rate. It really doesn't matter how far you advance if in so doing you are bled dry and cannot hold what you take. All these recent reports about flying in auxiliaries from Syria or the C.A.R., or of finally getting the Belarussian army to cross the border, what do they speak of? Similarly, the suggested mobilisation of reservists and the credible reports of open press-ganging in some parts of Russia?* To which it can be noted that the Ukrainians are also taking heavy casualties, which is true but they're operating on a different metric: when the people are prepared to take up arms to defend the nation against a very real existential threat they can take a lot more punishment than an invading army with poor morale and diabolical logistics.

Again, I make no predictions and, yes, it would be quite wrong to look at the situation at present and argue that it shows Ukraine winning (there is little doubt that people who do so are getting ahead of themselves), but there's a large gap between that and arguing that things thus far have been anything other than a fiasco for the invaders.

_{*It has not really been remarked enough that, in a strategic sense, the Russian army in Ukraine no longer has a reserve. Pretty much everything has been committed to the front now.}

[Torrain]

That was long overdue:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1502351269868060673

I’m going to have to disagree here, based on what I read today. If Moscow follows their typical tit-for-tat response, this means YouTube will almost certainly be blocked in Russia in the next day or two.

Reporters such as the Economist’s man in Ukraine, Oliver Carroll, have pointed to YouTube as one of the last bastions for accessing international media within Russia, and posting without imminent threat of censorship.

This move may make Google feel good about itself, but it will likely shut down one of the final avenues for freedom of speech in Russia in the process.

If this means ordinary Russians can no longer see the horrors imposed on Ukraine by their government, or post dissenting opinions online, this could be a major own goal by a Western business ostensibly trying to hurt Putin’s standing amongst his people.