Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[emailking]

If the jets won't be that useful then it makes sense to minimize the chances of WW3. I'm just saying, the criticism of it in this thread is somewhat baffling to me. I'm surprised we've been helping as much as we have given the risk.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1501507467389329412?s=20&t=V4JzMhwQ...

They’ve done better:

https://www.twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1501165913772634121

[rc18]

It seems significant that the UK MoD is admitting any soldiers have gone AWOL to fight in Ukraine.

They have to. If the Russians found them and discovered they are serving UK military then that is a pretext for war.

The government has to make clear serving military in a combat zone are not there under orders.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If the jets won't be that useful then it makes sense to minimize the chances of WW3. I'm just saying, the criticism of it in this thread is somewhat baffling to me. I'm surprised we've been helping as much as we have given the risk.

They wouldn’t be that useful in theory, but in theory, the Ukrainian Airforce should have lost the capability to fly anything over a week ago. A deal w.r.t. Polish jets could be scaled to the Russian jets held by Bulgaria, Slovakia, the USA and potentially those held by other countries.

I am quite confident the increased threat of war as a result is insignificant, given the previous support you’ve mentioned, the Romanian return of a Ukrainian fighter jet and Cold War precedent. If the US government genuinely disagreed with that (and I’m not ruling out ulterior/monetary/“loss of secret NATO technology” motives), it was incredibly irresponsible to encourage Poland to take such a risk.

[Storr]

Be on the lookout? Thanks Jen, I'll be on the lookout for mushroom clouds while I'm at it. Could it at least have been said there will be consequences for using such weapons?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1501699838836154376?s=20&t=hXP7I63...

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/status/1501519189458276352

[AndyHogan14]

German news sources already report that a member of Lavrov's delegation said there would be "no concessions at all." Probably this meeting is just a waste of time.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1501654121908211715

At this point, it seems clear Russia is only conducting these meetings for propaganda purposes. Russia is using them as evidence at home that they are the side "wanting peace", as part of the brain dead narrative that the war is a defensive "special military operation". 

If I were Ukraine I'd stop playing along with Russia's games and refuse to meet (mentioning how the government is busy defending the country and doesn't have time to be lectured to) until the Russia is willing to offer significant concessions.

Russia's already laid out their red lines: DPR, LPR and Crimea recognition, as well as constitutional neutrality. That is their absolute limit; they won't accept anything less than that.

Also, I'll say it's very easy for us to say Ukraine should be aggressive in neogitations. Keep this in mind: Ukrainian forces are stuggling, and stuggling heavily. Their only way out of this is a negotiated peace.

Again, the west should make it clear that none of the sanctions are going away unless Russia removes its troops from *all* of Ukraine—and that includes Crimea.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

German news sources already report that a member of Lavrov's delegation said there would be "no concessions at all." Probably this meeting is just a waste of time.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1501654121908211715

At this point, it seems clear Russia is only conducting these meetings for propaganda purposes. Russia is using them as evidence at home that they are the side "wanting peace", as part of the brain dead narrative that the war is a defensive "special military operation". 

If I were Ukraine I'd stop playing along with Russia's games and refuse to meet (mentioning how the government is busy defending the country and doesn't have time to be lectured to) until the Russia is willing to offer significant concessions.

Russia's already laid out their red lines: DPR, LPR and Crimea recognition, as well as constitutional neutrality. That is their absolute limit; they won't accept anything less than that.

Also, I'll say it's very easy for us to say Ukraine should be aggressive in neogitations. Keep this in mind: Ukrainian forces are stuggling, and stuggling heavily. Their only way out of this is a negotiated peace.

Again, the west should make it clear that none of the sanctions are going away unless Russia removes its troops from *all* of Ukraine—and that includes Crimea.

I guess I just don't view sanctions with enough enthusiasm, even as an alternative to conventional warfare, to agree with this. It's not like this is a country where Ivan Ivanovich can do anything about government policy if he's suffering financially from it.

[Frodo]

So while the cyberworld has been waging war against Putin's Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, Wikileaks has been AWOL.  

How curious... 

[Illiniwek]

Joe Biden’s World…

Seriously?

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1501512022470635521

American defense officials say, reported on CNN's live feed, that Russia still has 90% of its combat power ready for use, that doesn't sound like "losing significant equipment" or "running out of available troops" to me. I understand this forum is unabashedly cheerleading for Ukraine but believing in obvious pro-Ukrainian propaganda and exaggerated reports is a sure way to be disappointed when reality hits.

Russia has about “90% of their available combat power still ready for their use” in Ukraine, a senior US defense official told reporters on Wednesday.

The US assesses Russia no longer has “several hundred vehicles of different stripes and sizes” available to them, but the US does not know if those vehicles were captured, destroyed or abandoned, the official added.  

CNN first reported Tuesday that the US estimated that as much as 8% to 10% of Russian military assets used in the invasion of Ukraine are now destroyed or inoperable, according to a US official familiar with the latest intelligence as of Tuesday.

The equipment lost includes tanks, aircraft, artillery and other military assets. That is close to double the losses that CNN reported last week when it was estimated Russia had lost 3% to 5% of its military assets.

Question, are you stupid?

Wait, of course you are.

Russia lost 10% of its invading army in two weeks. That is.......insane. That is completely far beyond what anybody predicted. The US went into Iraq with some 300k forces. Imagine if we had lost 30,000 soldiers, that would have been unbelievable shock to the people and a massive disaster for our army. Imagine if that happened within two weeks of fighting. This is massive, catastrophic losses for Russia.

Now go, shoo, back to your cave.

[NOVA Green]

Russia moving towards nationalizing foreign owned businesses.

Russia moved toward nationalizing businesses owned by the growing number of foreign firms that are exiting the country. A Russian government panel approved a bill that would allow firms that are more than 25 percent owned by businesses from “unfriendly states” to be put into external administration, according to a statement President Vladimir V. Putin’s party, United Russia, posted on its website. The statement said that the measure, to be proposed to the lower house of Russia’s Parliament, was aimed at preventing bankruptcies and preventing thousands of job losses.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/09/world/ukraine-russia-war

[Yoda]

German news sources already report that a member of Lavrov's delegation said there would be "no concessions at all." Probably this meeting is just a waste of time.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1501654121908211715

At this point, it seems clear Russia is only conducting these meetings for propaganda purposes. Russia is using them as evidence at home that they are the side "wanting peace", as part of the brain dead narrative that the war is a defensive "special military operation". 

If I were Ukraine I'd stop playing along with Russia's games and refuse to meet (mentioning how the government is busy defending the country and doesn't have time to be lectured to) until the Russia is willing to offer significant concessions.

Russia's already laid out their red lines: DPR, LPR and Crimea recognition, as well as constitutional neutrality. That is their absolute limit; they won't accept anything less than that.

Also, I'll say it's very easy for us to say Ukraine should be aggressive in neogitations. Keep this in mind: Ukrainian forces are stuggling, and stuggling heavily. Their only way out of this is a negotiated peace.

That's just not true. There are other ways out of this. Are they palatable to Putin? No, but at this rate he's probably going to run out of shells and bombs before he is in any position to force Ukraine to surrender. The Ukranians have made it pretty clear they'd rather die than become slaves in all but name to a terrorist.

[Yoda]

If the jets won't be that useful then it makes sense to minimize the chances of WW3. I'm just saying, the criticism of it in this thread is somewhat baffling to me. I'm surprised we've been helping as much as we have given the risk.

I've grown extremely tired of this lame "escalation" argument with respect to fighter jets. It's lazy and makes zero sense. It exudes weakness and only encourages Putin.

[emailking]

If the jets won't be that useful then it makes sense to minimize the chances of WW3. I'm just saying, the criticism of it in this thread is somewhat baffling to me. I'm surprised we've been helping as much as we have given the risk.

I've grown extremely tired of this lame "escalation" argument with respect to fighter jets. It's lazy and makes zero sense. It exudes weakness and only encourages Putin.

I don't know if it would escalate it or not. But the military that this is a bad idea. They're the ones who have the experts looking at this and have intelligence we're not privy to. It might make sense if you knew everything. Maybe not, there could be internal disagreement about this too.

[Badger]

German news sources already report that a member of Lavrov's delegation said there would be "no concessions at all." Probably this meeting is just a waste of time.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1501654121908211715

At this point, it seems clear Russia is only conducting these meetings for propaganda purposes. Russia is using them as evidence at home that they are the side "wanting peace", as part of the brain dead narrative that the war is a defensive "special military operation". 

If I were Ukraine I'd stop playing along with Russia's games and refuse to meet (mentioning how the government is busy defending the country and doesn't have time to be lectured to) until the Russia is willing to offer significant concessions.

Russia's already laid out their red lines: DPR, LPR and Crimea recognition, as well as constitutional neutrality. That is their absolute limit; they won't accept anything less than that.

Also, I'll say it's very easy for us to say Ukraine should be aggressive in neogitations. Keep this in mind: Ukrainian forces are stuggling, and stuggling heavily. Their only way out of this is a negotiated peace.

Again, the west should make it clear that none of the sanctions are going away unless Russia removes its troops from *all* of Ukraine—and that includes Crimea.

 No, even the Ukraine would gladly say to the West please accept this peace proposal now. We will write-off the Crimea which we haven't held for  A few years and can't realistically take back in order to preserve our country. They'd surely accept some form of compromise on the Donbkass to do so.

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1501512022470635521

American defense officials say, reported on CNN's live feed, that Russia still has 90% of its combat power ready for use, that doesn't sound like "losing significant equipment" or "running out of available troops" to me. I understand this forum is unabashedly cheerleading for Ukraine but believing in obvious pro-Ukrainian propaganda and exaggerated reports is a sure way to be disappointed when reality hits.

Russia has about “90% of their available combat power still ready for their use” in Ukraine, a senior US defense official told reporters on Wednesday.

The US assesses Russia no longer has “several hundred vehicles of different stripes and sizes” available to them, but the US does not know if those vehicles were captured, destroyed or abandoned, the official added.  

CNN first reported Tuesday that the US estimated that as much as 8% to 10% of Russian military assets used in the invasion of Ukraine are now destroyed or inoperable, according to a US official familiar with the latest intelligence as of Tuesday.

The equipment lost includes tanks, aircraft, artillery and other military assets. That is close to double the losses that CNN reported last week when it was estimated Russia had lost 3% to 5% of its military assets.

Question, are you stupid?

Wait, of course you are.

Russia lost 10% of its invading army in two weeks. That is.......insane. That is completely far beyond what anybody predicted. The US went into Iraq with some 300k forces. Imagine if we had lost 30,000 soldiers, that would have been unbelievable shock to the people and a massive disaster for our army. Imagine if that happened within two weeks of fighting. This is massive, catastrophic losses for Russia.

Now go, shoo, back to your cave.

So catastrophic that they lost.... one tenth of their stuff? Still having 90% is "running out of troops" or "losing significant equipment"? Catastrophic is what the USSR suffered in Barbarossa, losing tens of thousands of tanks and aircraft and millions captured and killed, well over half their pre-war strength. I understand this forum is cheerleading for the Ukrainians and thus Ukrainian propaganda is spread, but you shouldn't actually drink the Kool-Aid and believe that stuff is real.

Edit: If you want to compare a two week time frame, the Soviets had their air force destroyed on the ground in the first week, lost multiple tank divisions in doomed counterattacks, and lost ~500K soldiers as the Germans encircled several armies at the border.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1501512022470635521

American defense officials say, reported on CNN's live feed, that Russia still has 90% of its combat power ready for use, that doesn't sound like "losing significant equipment" or "running out of available troops" to me. I understand this forum is unabashedly cheerleading for Ukraine but believing in obvious pro-Ukrainian propaganda and exaggerated reports is a sure way to be disappointed when reality hits.

Russia has about “90% of their available combat power still ready for their use” in Ukraine, a senior US defense official told reporters on Wednesday.

The US assesses Russia no longer has “several hundred vehicles of different stripes and sizes” available to them, but the US does not know if those vehicles were captured, destroyed or abandoned, the official added.  

CNN first reported Tuesday that the US estimated that as much as 8% to 10% of Russian military assets used in the invasion of Ukraine are now destroyed or inoperable, according to a US official familiar with the latest intelligence as of Tuesday.

The equipment lost includes tanks, aircraft, artillery and other military assets. That is close to double the losses that CNN reported last week when it was estimated Russia had lost 3% to 5% of its military assets.

Question, are you stupid?

Wait, of course you are.

Russia lost 10% of its invading army in two weeks. That is.......insane. That is completely far beyond what anybody predicted. The US went into Iraq with some 300k forces. Imagine if we had lost 30,000 soldiers, that would have been unbelievable shock to the people and a massive disaster for our army. Imagine if that happened within two weeks of fighting. This is massive, catastrophic losses for Russia.

Now go, shoo, back to your cave.

So catastrophic that they lost.... one tenth of their stuff? Still having 90% is "running out of troops" or "losing significant equipment"? Catastrophic is what the USSR suffered in Barbarossa, losing tens of thousands of tanks and aircraft and millions captured and killed, well over half their pre-war strength. I understand this forum is cheerleading for the Ukrainians and thus Ukrainian propaganda is spread, but you shouldn't actually drink the Kool-Aid and believe that stuff is real.

Ten% of their total military stuff would be insane…
Those aren’t exactly numbers you ever want.

[Badger]

If the jets won't be that useful then it makes sense to minimize the chances of WW3. I'm just saying, the criticism of it in this thread is somewhat baffling to me. I'm surprised we've been helping as much as we have given the risk.

I've grown extremely tired of this lame "escalation" argument with respect to fighter jets. It's lazy and makes zero sense. It exudes weakness and only encourages Putin.

I don't know if it would escalate it or not. But the military that this is a bad idea. They're the ones who have the experts looking at this and have intelligence we're not privy to. It might make sense if you knew everything. Maybe not, there could be internal disagreement about this too.

 It's not the military but the diplomats who are saying this is a bad idea. Is. And  With all respect to lifetime diplomats that requires More common sense than technical expertise. It is now clear that Putin will only be stopped only be stopped through military resistance Terry resistance, of which the Ukrainian Air Force maintaining viability is crucial. It's further clear that that Russia has bitten off more than it can chew just invading invading Ukraine. As if they're seriously going to start A-war with NATO  On top of the one war they're having great difficulty with already?!? H***, they'd be hard pressed to even invade Moldavia or Georgia at this point, let alone start A-war with a very unified Western alliance.

I'm very disappointed in president Biden here.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1501512022470635521

American defense officials say, reported on CNN's live feed, that Russia still has 90% of its combat power ready for use, that doesn't sound like "losing significant equipment" or "running out of available troops" to me. I understand this forum is unabashedly cheerleading for Ukraine but believing in obvious pro-Ukrainian propaganda and exaggerated reports is a sure way to be disappointed when reality hits.

Russia has about “90% of their available combat power still ready for their use” in Ukraine, a senior US defense official told reporters on Wednesday.

The US assesses Russia no longer has “several hundred vehicles of different stripes and sizes” available to them, but the US does not know if those vehicles were captured, destroyed or abandoned, the official added.  

CNN first reported Tuesday that the US estimated that as much as 8% to 10% of Russian military assets used in the invasion of Ukraine are now destroyed or inoperable, according to a US official familiar with the latest intelligence as of Tuesday.

The equipment lost includes tanks, aircraft, artillery and other military assets. That is close to double the losses that CNN reported last week when it was estimated Russia had lost 3% to 5% of its military assets.

Question, are you stupid?

Wait, of course you are.

Russia lost 10% of its invading army in two weeks. That is.......insane. That is completely far beyond what anybody predicted. The US went into Iraq with some 300k forces. Imagine if we had lost 30,000 soldiers, that would have been unbelievable shock to the people and a massive disaster for our army. Imagine if that happened within two weeks of fighting. This is massive, catastrophic losses for Russia.

Now go, shoo, back to your cave.

So catastrophic that they lost.... one tenth of their stuff? Still having 90% is "running out of troops" or "losing significant equipment"? Catastrophic is what the USSR suffered in Barbarossa, losing tens of thousands of tanks and aircraft and millions captured and killed, well over half their pre-war strength. I understand this forum is cheerleading for the Ukrainians and thus Ukrainian propaganda is spread, but you shouldn't actually drink the Kool-Aid and believe that stuff is real.

How stupid are you?
Are you really comparing World War Two to a war fought in 2022? Why would you do something so silly? Germany invaded the Soviet Union with 3.8 million soldiers. Russia had some 2.5 million on the border, and 11,000 tanks. The scale is not remotely comparable! The nature of the conflict is not remotely comparable!

Russia invaded Ukraine two weeks ago, expecting to decapitate the government within a few days. Instead, they have lost 10% of their army, and the other 90% is facing logistical and supply nightmares. Since then, Ukraine's military capacity has only increased on the land.

Be smarter (or for you I guess, just be not so stupid).

[emailking]

As if they're seriously going to start A-war with NATO  On top of the one war they're having great difficulty with already?!?

If they genuinely see it as us starting the war, which is something I'm scared of, then that doesn't really matter.

[pppolitics]

German news sources already report that a member of Lavrov's delegation said there would be "no concessions at all." Probably this meeting is just a waste of time.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1501654121908211715

At this point, it seems clear Russia is only conducting these meetings for propaganda purposes. Russia is using them as evidence at home that they are the side "wanting peace", as part of the brain dead narrative that the war is a defensive "special military operation".  

If I were Ukraine I'd stop playing along with Russia's games and refuse to meet (mentioning how the government is busy defending the country and doesn't have time to be lectured to) until the Russia is willing to offer significant concessions.

Russia's already laid out their red lines: DPR, LPR and Crimea recognition, as well as constitutional neutrality. That is their absolute limit; they won't accept anything less than that.

Also, I'll say it's very easy for us to say Ukraine should be aggressive in neogitations. Keep this in mind: Ukrainian forces are stuggling, and stuggling heavily. Their only way out of this is a negotiated peace.

That's just not true. There are other ways out of this. Are they palatable to Putin? No, but at this rate he's probably going to run out of shells and bombs before he is in any position to force Ukraine to surrender. The Ukranians have made it pretty clear they'd rather die than become slaves in all but name to a terrorist.

The Ukranians understand what is at stake.

Stalin intentionally starved 7 millions Ukranians to death during Holodomor.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Russia moving towards nationalizing foreign owned businesses.

Russia moved toward nationalizing businesses owned by the growing number of foreign firms that are exiting the country. A Russian government panel approved a bill that would allow firms that are more than 25 percent owned by businesses from “unfriendly states” to be put into external administration, according to a statement President Vladimir V. Putin’s party, United Russia, posted on its website. The statement said that the measure, to be proposed to the lower house of Russia’s Parliament, was aimed at preventing bankruptcies and preventing thousands of job losses.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/09/world/ukraine-russia-war

Yeah, all the businesses heading for the exit was not entirely about solidarity with Ukraine. Netflix was sort of a canary in the coal mine.

[Badger]

As if they're seriously going to start A-war with NATO  On top of the one war they're having great difficulty with already?!?

If they genuinely see it as us starting the war, which is something I'm scared of, then that doesn't really matter.

But will they? If we've already shipped countless antitank and antiaircraft rockets plus tons of other munitions, led economy  crippling sanctions, aallowed armed volunteers to join the Ukrainian military, is allowing the shipment of Soviet era warplanes to Ukraine REALLY  Going to be the line that instigates Russia to enter A-war it literally cannot win and knows it?

Impossible? Of course not. Realistic? Hardly IMHO.

[Yoda]

If the jets won't be that useful then it makes sense to minimize the chances of WW3. I'm just saying, the criticism of it in this thread is somewhat baffling to me. I'm surprised we've been helping as much as we have given the risk.

I've grown extremely tired of this lame "escalation" argument with respect to fighter jets. It's lazy and makes zero sense. It exudes weakness and only encourages Putin.

I don't know if it would escalate it or not. But the military that this is a bad idea. They're the ones who have the experts looking at this and have intelligence we're not privy to. It might make sense if you knew everything. Maybe not, there could be internal disagreement about this too.

"Minimizing the chance of WW3" implies you think that giving them jets would be escalation.

With respect to "the military said it's a bad idea", frankly Ukraine has said additional fighter jets would help them immensely and allow them to destroy Russian artillery and armor which are slaughtering civilians. Our military predicted Kyiv would fall in 2 days, so I put much more stock in what the Ukranian military on the ground says as opposed to ours. Also I can't fathom a reason why giving the Ukranians more air power would not be a good idea or would be ineffective given how much of a fight they've put up already with such a small air force. I don't see how more fighter jets = bad. That makes no sense and smells like a gaslighting talking point from bureaucrats.