Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Badger]

Could Putin use the WNBA star as a bargaining chip with the US?

Is she even worth anything?  Her income is derived from the charity that the male basketball players generate by being talented entertainers while the entirety of WNBA is loses huge sums of money to produce their farce of season.  She's widely hated by the fans for her sexually abusive comments, and her ludicrous claims of victimhood cause society doesn't see it fit to let her steal more money from the guys that earn it.  

But seriously, they'll get her back in exchange for something valuable.  Trump could probably get ungrateful butt back quickly.  

The WNBA sucks, sure,  but per usual your posts display so many clear….." Underlying issues " beyond the topic at hand.

[GoTfan]

I genuinely don't know if Ukraine will even exist in a month. The Russians will not accept anything less than their current demands.
 

Well this is what you doves wanted!

A ridiculous statement like this doesn't deserve a response, but I'll respond anyway because of your previous statements.

Thank Christ you're never going to be in charge of a country.

[dead0man]

I genuinely don't know if Ukraine will even exist in a month. The Russians will not accept anything less than their current demands.
 

Well this is what you doves wanted!

A ridiculous statement like this doesn't deserve a response, but I'll respond anyway because of your previous statements.

Thank Christ you're never going to be in charge of a country.

but you couldn't help yourself?

[GoTfan]

I genuinely don't know if Ukraine will even exist in a month. The Russians will not accept anything less than their current demands.
 

Well this is what you doves wanted!

A ridiculous statement like this doesn't deserve a response, but I'll respond anyway because of your previous statements.

Thank Christ you're never going to be in charge of a country.

but you couldn't help yourself?

No, I couldn't.

Forumlurker is a troll, I get that, but it just get my back up when people make blatantly false statements with no evidence other than what they've made up in their heads.

[Storr]

RIP HP

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1500953999134150663?s=20&t=L7LJFOo_s...

Wild story behind how Gerasimov's death was discovered:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500971769146060804?s=20&t=xXpOXLl9...

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500978613113524229?s=20&t=xXpOXLl9...

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500984893563670528?s=20&t=xXpOXLl9...

[emailking]

At what point do you think the US and NATO would legitimately use our militaries to intervene? Like, if Russia attacks Georgia to take it over, then Kazakhstan, then Moldova, like at some point we would draw a line right?

What do you think we would do if Russia nuked Kyiv? Like, a straight up Tsar Bomba on Kyiv, killing all 3M inhabitants?

What if Russian troops kidnapped Zelenskyy and publicly executed him? What about a massive cyberattack on NATO countries power grids?

If they attack a NATO country.

Maybe special forces would take out Putin or something but we would not attack militarily.

Nothing but condemnation.

Probably a war ensues.

[AndyHogan14]

I genuinely don't know if Ukraine will even exist in a month. The Russians will not accept anything less than their current demands.
 

I am not sure Russia has the manpower to roll over the entire country and deal with the inevitable insurgency. I think their best case scenario at this point is to set up an "East Ukraine" with a puppet leader and commit enough forces to deal with the insurgency there than attempt to take the west. To be honest, I am not even sure that Russia *could* take Western Ukraine at all at this point.

[compucomp]

First Germany rearming, now Japan is setting the political foundation for recovering the Kuril Islands. Let's gooo!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500891170964217862?s=20&t=JfyXOI...
There will certainly be no better time to retake (either through a bilateral agreement or military action) the Kurils than now.

What a way to claim the moral high ground against what you call an unjustified irrendentist invasion, by launching an unjustified irrendentist invasion against Russia. Never mind the fact that it would be a terrible geopolitical move as it raises the dormant specter of Japanese imperialism which is still in living memory and hated in the region and risks having South Korea join Russia and China as they hold an island (Dokdo) similarly claimed by Japan.

[Middle-aged Europe]

First Germany rearming, now Japan is setting the political foundation for recovering the Kuril Islands. Let's gooo!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500891170964217862?s=20&t=JfyXOI...
There will certainly be no better time to retake (either through a bilateral agreement or military action) the Kurils than now.

What a way to claim the moral high ground against what you call an unjustified irrendentist invasion, by launching an unjustified irrendentist invasion against Russia. Never mind the fact that it would be a terrible geopolitical move as it raises the dormant scepter of Japanese imperialism which is still in living memory and hated in the region and risks having South Korea join Russia and China as they hold an island (Dokdo) similarly claimed by Japan.

LOL

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

First Germany rearming, now Japan is setting the political foundation for recovering the Kuril Islands. Let's gooo!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500891170964217862?s=20&t=JfyXOI...
There will certainly be no better time to retake (either through a bilateral agreement or military action) the Kurils than now.

What a way to claim the moral high ground against what you call an unjustified irrendentist invasion, by launching an unjustified irrendentist invasion against Russia. Never mind the fact that it would be a terrible geopolitical move as it raises the dormant scepter of Japanese imperialism which is still in living memory and hated in the region and risks having South Korea join Russia and China as they hold an island (Dokdo) similarly claimed by Japan.

Is this really the only development from today you consider worthy of remark? I don't even necessarily disagree with you on this particular topic, but wow.

[pppolitics]

I still like this video no matter how many times that I've watched it

https://twitter.com/TheClearCider/status/1501006845296746496

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

DESPERATION

https://www.ibtimes.com/russia-offers-syrians-300-fight-ukraine-report-3425981

Someone actually calculated this is like 8 months of the average salary in Syria...for 6 months of "work" that consists of possibly dying in a miserable hellhole. The fact that's all Russia can offer says a lot.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1500815037589504009

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500984893563670528?s=20&t=xXpOXLl9...

this is my field, I find this hilarious

[NOVA Green]

RIP HP

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1500953999134150663?s=20&t=L7LJFOo_s...

....

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500978613113524229?s=20&t=xXpOXLl9...

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500984893563670528?s=20&t=xXpOXLl9...

Ties into this story from Politico earlier today and heavily condensed, but believe it is freely available in full at bottom link:

"3 reasons Moscow isn't taking down Ukraine's cell networks

Russia has plenty to gain from keeping things running, even if it also benefits Ukraine.

Cybersecurity experts expected Russian forces to take out at least some Ukrainian phone lines and internet services as part of a ground invasion. It hasn’t happened — even though Russia appears to be suffering for it.

....

But cybersecurity and national security experts believe Russia has three good reasons to refrain from disabling phone and data networks:

1.) Russian intelligence services can eavesdrop on phone calls and emails and also gather geolocation and other metadata.

2.) The Russian army is using Ukrainian commercial networks to communicate.

3.) Russian forces don’t want to destroy infrastructure that they will need if they succeed in conquering Ukraine.

...

Russian attempts to penetrate Ukrainian networks have been made easier because the countries use similar technologies in their networks. Wired reported in 2012 both nations have required providers install a piece of surveillance technology that allows governments to tap phone lines and record calls.

....

Meanwhile, rather than sticking to more secure, military communications lines, “the Russians themselves are using the local telecoms networks — and more widely, the local communications infrastructure as well — as they do their operations,” said Shane Huntley, who leads Google’s Threat Analysis Group, which tracks and fights government-backed cyberattacks. “I can’t speak to their intent, but one possibility is that they believe that if they take out telecoms networks that it would actually hinder their operations as well.”

...

Even if Russia does succeed in claiming Ukraine, taking over a region’s existing telecommunications infrastructure is already difficult without having to spend tens or hundreds of millions of dollars building entirely new cell towers. When Russia illegally annexed the Crimea peninsula in 2014, it took Moscow about three years to take full control of the region’s mobile infrastructure. That’s even though that cell network had been left intact during the invasion, according to a 2020 paper from Citizen Lab, internet registry RIPE NCC and Japan-based IIJ Innovation Institute.

"

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/07/ukraine-phones-internet-still-work-00014487

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500984893563670528?s=20&t=xXpOXLl9...

this is my field, I find this hilarious

Can't they just use encrypted phones that still run off local networks or something? Sounds like a laughable own goal. Like I'd expect random African countries' militaries to be able to handle this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

First Germany rearming, now Japan is setting the political foundation for recovering the Kuril Islands. Let's gooo!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500891170964217862?s=20&t=JfyXOI...
There will certainly be no better time to retake (either through a bilateral agreement or military action) the Kurils than now.

What a way to claim the moral high ground against what you call an unjustified irrendentist invasion, by launching an unjustified irrendentist invasion against Russia. Never mind the fact that it would be a terrible geopolitical move as it raises the dormant scepter of Japanese imperialism which is still in living memory and hated in the region and risks having South Korea join Russia and China as they hold an island (Dokdo) similarly claimed by Japan.

"Scepter"?  Do you even know what that word means?

[Frodo]

With Russia so weakened by its invasion of Ukraine and the crippling sanctions imposed on it, Xi Jinping would be in a prime position to drive a hard bargain with Vladimir Putin.  That in exchange for their 'limitless support' keeping the Russian Federation from collapsing into chaos and turning into a failed state, Putin would relinquish his nuclear arsenal, his space program, and all the scientific and engineering know-how accumulated over decades to China, as well as ceding Central Asia to the Chinese sphere of influence.  China would then offer an additional benefit by bringing Russia under its nuclear umbrella.

When all is said and done, I don't think Putin will be in a position to refuse.  

[compucomp]

First Germany rearming, now Japan is setting the political foundation for recovering the Kuril Islands. Let's gooo!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500891170964217862?s=20&t=JfyXOI...
There will certainly be no better time to retake (either through a bilateral agreement or military action) the Kurils than now.

What a way to claim the moral high ground against what you call an unjustified irrendentist invasion, by launching an unjustified irrendentist invasion against Russia. Never mind the fact that it would be a terrible geopolitical move as it raises the dormant scepter of Japanese imperialism which is still in living memory and hated in the region and risks having South Korea join Russia and China as they hold an island (Dokdo) similarly claimed by Japan.

"Scepter"?  Do you even know what that word means?

Corrected.

First Germany rearming, now Japan is setting the political foundation for recovering the Kuril Islands. Let's gooo!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500891170964217862?s=20&t=JfyXOI...
There will certainly be no better time to retake (either through a bilateral agreement or military action) the Kurils than now.

What a way to claim the moral high ground against what you call an unjustified irrendentist invasion, by launching an unjustified irrendentist invasion against Russia. Never mind the fact that it would be a terrible geopolitical move as it raises the dormant scepter of Japanese imperialism which is still in living memory and hated in the region and risks having South Korea join Russia and China as they hold an island (Dokdo) similarly claimed by Japan.

Is this really the only development from today you consider worthy of remark? I don't even necessarily disagree with you on this particular topic, but wow.

Other than Wang Yi offering to mediate in the conflict which I regard as a bit of virtue signaling, this is probably the news most relevant for China today. While Japanese imperialism remains a threat to China if it wakes from dormancy, it is intriguing to think about the prospect of a China-South Korea alliance, shredding into ruins the American strategy for East Asia.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

With Russia so weakened by its invasion of Ukraine and the crippling sanctions imposed on it, Xi Jinping would be in a prime position to drive a hard bargain with Vladimir Putin.  That in exchange for their 'limitless support' keeping the Russian Federation from collapsing into chaos and turning into a failed state, Putin would relinquish his nuclear arsenal, his space program, and all the scientific and engineering know-how accumulated over decades to China, as well as ceding Central Asia to the Chinese sphere of influence.  China would then offer an additional benefit by bringing Russia under its nuclear umbrella.

When all is said and done, I don't think Putin will be in a position to refuse.  

Xi would just ask for all the intellectual property that they didn't already steal.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500984893563670528?s=20&t=xXpOXLl9...

this is my field, I find this hilarious

Can't they just use encrypted phones that still run off local networks or something? Sounds like a laughable own goal. Like I'd expect random African countries' militaries to be able to handle this.

Yes, they can.  They just have to encrypt the signal, which one assume they'd be good at.  Even if it's old Soviet era gear that western security peeps can easily decrypt, it still (probably) wouldn't be "hacked" by civilians.  I can't imagine how they have zero ways to communicate securely with "HQ".  Even an ancient tele-type system would be better than just using a burner phone like they seem to be.

[Yoda]

Really doesn’t look like it’ll go anywhere soon. Various Polish officials hum and haw but their Prime Minister (not the President) keeps saying no. Psaki talks up the Biden administration’s work on the matter while suggesting it’s incredibly complicated: https://www.twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1500929211254640648
NATO seems kind of dysfunctional. You have to wonder if an invocation of Article 5 would be first met by days of legalistic deliberation over what it really meant in context.

This is my big fear. If it's taking them this long to accomplish this when literally everyone wants it to happen, I can't imagine how incompetent they'd be at launching a counterattack. Not to mention the best time to supply Ukraine with more fighters was weeks ago, so we're already crazy late no matter how fast we move now. Things like this, where the international community fumbles around like idiots while Putin fearlessly commits hundreds of war crimes per day, is a perfect example of why Putin thought he could get away with invading Ukraine in the first place. What Western leaders/NATO members don't understand is that Putin only understands violence/military action and he will walk over anyone who shows such reluctance to use force when necessary. They haven't gotten it through their thick skulls that diplomacy will not work with him.

[NOVA Green]

RIP HP

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1500953999134150663?s=20&t=L7LJFOo_s...

Meanwhile, as Atlas Shrugged and gets into obscure debates about arcane minutiae, would not be surprised if Major General Vitaly Gerasimov was shot dead by Ukrainian snipers, just as did Maj Gen Andrei Sukhovetsky perish on 2/28/22.


https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1500973911802011655?s=20&t=3BoBCYL2upSd...

https://twitter.com/HusamHezaber/status/1499855459326611461?s=20&t=ZQVoBpQkp...

I had previously reported on Ukrainian Sniper units 3-4 days back....

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8509709#msg8509709

This war is so WW II style where snipers are trained to take out officers...

I had posted a comment on this thread which I later voluntarily deleted from YouTube: Enemy at the Gates with an Irish Rebel song...

Still, every Russian Senior Officer can and will be targeted on every front at the hands of Ukrainian Snipers.

Snipers were never popular in WW II on any front, just like captured bomber and fighter pilots. Killing people from long distances seems somehow "uncivilized" compared to the "usual rules of war".

Still... this is something which resonates very deeply within both the Russian and Ukrainian psyche from the glorious days of the war against the Nazis, where both regions of the former USSR were united against an existential threat.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1501029440431824908

[Frodo]

First Germany rearming, now Japan is setting the political foundation for recovering the Kuril Islands. Let's gooo!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500891170964217862?s=20&t=JfyXOI...
There will certainly be no better time to retake (either through a bilateral agreement or military action) the Kurils than now.

I didn't see this one coming. Wow.
I would guess PM Kishida looked at Japanese public opinion in regards to the Ukraine crisis and decided this was a good move on that basis.

This was an unnecessary distraction.  He would have been better off keeping his head down and not making any territorial claims.