Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/jpmorgan-touts-distressed-russian-company-debt-recovery-play

"JPMorgan Touts Distressed Russian Company Debt ‘Recovery Play’"

JPM now recommends to their customers to buy Russian debt as there is more upside now than downslide

[It’s so Joever]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/jpmorgan-touts-distressed-russian-company-debt-recovery-play

"JPMorgan Touts Distressed Russian Company Debt ‘Recovery Play’"

JPM now recommends to their customers to buy Russian debt as there is more upside now than downslide

“But Russia will be destroyed by the sanctions”

[Person Man]

A no-fly zone over Ukraine almost guarantees escalation to at least a general European war if not a world war. I get that because of the way international diplomacy works we had to at least look like we were considering it to humor Zelenskyy, but there were a lot of people not involved in that process who've been stridently advocating for it even though they should really know better. Looking at you, natsec ghouls.

I'm extremely conflicted on the issue. It's definitely the right thing to do morally, and I would love to see Russians getting kicked out of Ukraine as long as they keep assaulting a peaceful neighbor country. The potential for an escalation would certainly be there, though backing down means that nuclear powers can pretty much do whatever they want, no matter how abhorrent it might be. It's anyone's guess how Putin would react to NATO countries enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Would he attack a NATO country? That would actually be suicidal.

These is that risk that that we may find ourselves in a situation where yielding will be even increase our risk of nuclear war more than going in. I'm very concerned about that.

[jaichind]

https://finance.yahoo.com/finance/news/russia-calls-domestic-fertilizer-producers-162253990.html

"Russia Jolts Global Fertilizer Market by Seeking End to Exports"

More of "Russia strikes back."

Understand that Russia and Eastern Ukraine are large food export areas.  So if Russia does this and also clamp down on Russian and Eastern Ukraine food exports they could drive a food inflation crisis across the world.

[Torie]

If I were a Russian living in Moscow and someone came up to interview on camera for the world to watch and hear, just why on earth would I say what I really think? I am surprised frankly that some were as candid as they were. One seemed to have a job that was dependent on some western company that is going away. I would not be surprised if Putin brought back the gulag unless he thinks it is more cost effective to just kill people. I wonder how many Russians would like to get out of Russia ASAP at this point if they could.

I also wonder what Russian immigrant opinion is like in the US on the invasion. I hear a lot of Russian spoken in Hoboken. If I hear the language spoken in the dog park that I go to, I plan to try to strike up a conversation. The security guard at the synagogue a block away (sad that the congregation feels it needs a full time security guard), speaks Russian, but my impression is that his English is very limited, so I would leave him alone and he is working anyway.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1499816840205602816

It seems that Putin also believes in "alternative facts"...

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/1499088993736138754?s=21

Gary Kasparov to remind you all, among other things, that appeasing Putin will not solve anything.

Garry is also a mad Fomenkoist, not exactly someone I would listen to on geopolitical matters.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1499816840205602816

It seems that Putin also believes in "alternative facts"...

He's outright lying, as he lied to Scholz and Macron when they sat at the famous white table. They're also blatantly lying about the nuclear power plant incident, accusing Ukrainians of sabotage.

[Astatine]

Meanwhile in Serbia, a country with ongoing EU membership negotiations:

https://twitter.com/admirim/status/1499828386151153665?t=ObFdtIX4GZoC1u7CGg7Ilw&...

[Torie]

I assume the negotiations with Serbia will stall. It was a dumb idea to start with in my opinion.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1499696220457127939

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1499818130775891968

[rc18]

If the Babushkas wanna fight then Putin should send them in.

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1499810988786438153

They blocked Twitter too.

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1499835170190467086

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/1499088993736138754?s=21

Gary Kasparov to remind you all, among other things, that appeasing Putin will not solve anything.

Garry is also a mad Fomenkoist, not exactly someone I would listen to on geopolitical matters.

On issues related to Putin and Russia, has he been wrong?

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1499675657923706880?s=21

Good news in more than one way.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1499675657923706880?s=21

Good news in more than one way.

If there are anti-war elements within the FSB they should "take care" of Putin.

[Torie]

"Ukrainians feel because of Russia's war against Ukraine is anger (62%)"

Who knew? Geez.

[It’s so Joever]

I don’t know if this has been posted or not, but this song from the Ukrainian armed forces is actually low key catchy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2G6EIKoJLNo

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1499864150515720196?t=cnei7SItoGln3ok...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Feels like we've gotten little to no updates about the situation in Ukraine itself since the Zaporizhzhia plant. And outside of the plant, there didn't seem to be much yesterday either.

[AndyHogan14]

Feels like we've gotten little to no updates about the situation in Ukraine itself since the Zaporizhzhia plant. And outside of the plant, there didn't seem to be much yesterday either.

I'm operating under the assumption that that is (for the most part) a good thing. Although, I did hear that the situation in Mariupol is especially dire—hopefully they can get some humanitarian aid into that city.

EDIT: I also saw unverified reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are going on the offensive around Kharkiv. Hopefully they will be successful there and that, in turn, could help relieve some of the pressure in the south.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Feels like we've gotten little to no updates about the situation in Ukraine itself since the Zaporizhzhia plant. And outside of the plant, there didn't seem to be much yesterday either.

Because the Russian advance seems largely stalled. Biggest movement has been to the northeast of Kyiv where Russian units have been driving at breakneck speed to the city suburbs.

[Logical]

Feels like we've gotten little to no updates about the situation in Ukraine itself since the Zaporizhzhia plant. And outside of the plant, there didn't seem to be much yesterday either.

- Russians in the north remains stalled in their attempt to encircle Kyiv. Very slow progress as Ukrainians have been successful in delaying their advance.
- Russians consolidating their gains in the south, Nikolayev prepares for a siege and naval landings. Mariupol is still besieged and under constant shelling.
- More activity from the Russian Air Force, at least 2 RU planes were shot down today
- Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv, unclear at this moment how successful they are

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1499865304326942727