Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Thunder98]

Lukashenko and Putin needs to be locked up in GITMO.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Lukashenko and Putin needs to be locked up in GITMO.

Nah, send them to Tender Bredeson's basement

[Omega21]

Uh oh

https://mobile.twitter.com/TristanSnell/status/1498756914263568386

Let's hope this is not correct... That's the last thing they need.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Uh oh

https://mobile.twitter.com/TristanSnell/status/1498756914263568386

The CIA needs to get involved in Belarus

[Mehmentum]

https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1498638037873577991
We're now seeing active resistance in Belarus.  This isn't a shock, considering the nationwide protests last year.  I have to wonder what Putin is thinking, dragging Belarus into the war.  Because he's definitely taking a risk here.  Its hard to say how significant of a risk it is, but I doubt its worth it unless he thinks he needs Belarus' army.  In which case, lol.

[Aurelius]

Good analysis in this Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickForVA/status/1498702036363210754

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1498638037873577991
We're now seeing active resistance in Belarus.  This isn't a shock, considering the nationwide protests last year.  I have to wonder what Putin is thinking, dragging Belarus into the war.  Because he's definitely taking a risk here.  Its hard to say how significant of a risk it is, but I doubt its worth it unless he thinks he needs Belarus' army.  In which case, lol.

I could very easily see a coup (or hell, a revolution) in Minsk before Moscow at this point. Russian troops are preoccupied in Ukraine, Belarusian forces are in Ukraine as well (and I am sure their morale is lower than the Russians) so if there is ever a time to try and topple Lukashenko, it's probably now.

[Aurelius]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1498707386558824450
Grain of salt because Rasmussen, but support for US entry into the war is both much higher than I thought, and without any partisan correlation.

[Yoda]

Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba for the 1st Time acknowledged to CNN's Foreign Affairs Correspondent Christiane Amanpour that Russia is now dominating the Sky

Ukrainian air force is targeting Russian columns but Russia dominates the skies, Ukrainian official tells CNN

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Tuesday that the country’s air force is targeting Russian military columns headed toward Ukrainian cities.

“We are using our air forces to destroy columns headed towards our cities,” he said in a TV interview.  

When asked what further help Ukraine needs from the US and NATO, Kuleba replied “air force and anti-missile defense, and weapons.”

“The problem is Russia dominates in the sky. Our pilots are fighting fiercely against them, but we also have losses. So the Russians use their fighting jets and bombers to attack our cities and we need to counter this threat. This are the two most urgent requests that we lodged with our partners,” he said.
“We are fighting in the air, but physically Russia has more planes to deploy to Ukraine than we have. So that’s why we put such an emphasis on air defense and air force, and also missile defense,” he told Amanpour, adding “we need better protection from the sky.”

Kuleba said he cannot speak specifically about whether Ukraine’s air force is also hitting the 40-mile Russian convoy around Kyiv.

Without any help from the air re Fighter Jets from Poland, Slovakia, etc. this is looking very, very grim!

I'm at a complete loss for words over not a single European country coming through with any fighter jets for Ukraine. It's almost like we want them to lose. I'm furious.

[Omega21]

Updated battlefield situation:

Russians are still slow & ineffective, but slowly gaining ground and encircling areas with stiff resistance.

https://twitter.com/TruthsUnchained/status/1498806054418845701

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1498826672828731398

[John Dule]

It’s not, really. One might say it’s not really self-aware. But there’s nothing inherently hypocritical about being authoritarian. And either way, an allegation of hypocrisy is an attack on behavior, not on idealogy.

The only valid form of political authority is described in Hobbes' Leviathan: "Made by a covenant of every man with every man, in such a manner as if every man should say to all others 'I authorize and give up my right of governing myself to this man, or to this assembly of men, on this condition, that thou give up thy right to him, and authorize all his actions in like manner."

A person is a hypocrite if he expects others to surrender their right of self-governance without doing the same himself. For example, if I believe that you ought to forfeit your religious liberty but I also believe I ought to retain my own, I am a hypocrite. The only non-hypocritical form of vesting authority in a sovereign is if every individual voluntarily surrenders the same rights (for example, the right to kill). But "authoritarianism" in modern terms necessitates the preferential treatment of some groups at the expense of others. A Putinist believes that they should be free to voice their own beliefs while others should not. That is the definition of hypocrisy.

[NOVA Green]

Uh oh

https://mobile.twitter.com/TristanSnell/status/1498756914263568386

Let's hope this is not correct... That's the last thing they need.

Who the tell is that MAGA Twitter dude anyway and how does he know what he says he knows?

[AndyHogan14]

Updated battlefield situation:

Russians are still slow & ineffective, but slowly gaining ground and encircling areas with stiff resistance.

https://twitter.com/TruthsUnchained/status/1498806054418845701

Can Putin survive 30 days? The Russian economy is in shambles and we are only two days into the sanctions—if it takes a month for Kyiv to fall, I would bet that Putin will fall before Kyiv. Perhaps that is wishful thinking, but considering that Putin thought Kyiv would have fallen by now, 30 more days has got to hurt for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1498707386558824450
Grain of salt because Rasmussen, but support for US entry into the war is both much higher than I thought, and without any partisan correlation.

Keep in mind that question wording in polls is important.  Clicking through (twice) brings us here, which shows the question as:

3* If a wider war breaks out in Europe, should the U.S. military be involved?

So the question amounts to, should the U.S. get involved if a wider war breaks out?  I don't think the level of support they find for that is surprising.  I suspect that support for entering into the war as it is now is much lower.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Good analysis in this Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickForVA/status/1498702036363210754

Between analysis like this showing how Russian victory isn't a done deal, analysis showing how Russian victory is a done deal, analysis showing how it might take a month for Kiev to fall, the halting of the Kiev convoy, the increasing failure of Russian logistics, the Russian economy falling into an abyss, Belarus troops seemingly entering Ukraine + the destruction of Kharkiv, I have no clue what to make of this conflict now.

[Storebought]

Updated battlefield situation:

Russians are still slow & ineffective, but slowly gaining ground and encircling areas with stiff resistance.

https://twitter.com/TruthsUnchained/status/1498806054418845701

That maps looks like a map of a Russian 'Sudetenland'.

Russia will probably assert some time or another that the unconquered parts of Ukraine form the "new" borders of the country.

[AndyHogan14]

Good analysis in this Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickForVA/status/1498702036363210754

Between analysis like this showing how Russian victory isn't a done deal, analysis showing how Russian victory is a done deal, analysis showing how it might take a month for Kiev to fall, the halting & logistical problems of the Kiev convoy, Belarus troops seemingly entering Ukraine + the destruction of Kharkiv & the Russian economy, I have no clue what to make of the trajectory of the conflict.

I think it is pretty clear that absent a coup in Moscow (or a stunning reversal by Putin), Russia will win conventionally in the short term. With that said, if the Ukrainian people's morale remains high and the entire country remains mobilized for an insurgency, then they will win they long run because Russia will not be able to afford hold the entire country.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Do the Swiss have any exiled revolutionaries lying around that we could send to Russia right now? Asking for a friend...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Good analysis in this Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickForVA/status/1498702036363210754

Between analysis like this showing how Russian victory isn't a done deal, analysis showing how Russian victory is a done deal, analysis showing how it might take a month for Kiev to fall, the halting & logistical problems of the Kiev convoy, Belarus troops seemingly entering Ukraine + the destruction of Kharkiv & the Russian economy, I have no clue what to make of the trajectory of the conflict.

I think it is pretty clear that absent a coup in Moscow (or a stunning reversal by Putin), Russia will win conventionally in the short term. With that said, if the Ukrainian people's morale remains high and the entire country remains mobilized for an insurgency, then they will win they long run because Russia will not be able to afford hold the entire country.

That's pretty much how I see it, especially the long-term trajectory. I don't know if it's naive to say it might turn into Russia's version of the US War in Afghanistan (Or perhaps the Soviet War in Afghanistan?), but I'm also not sure if Russia will try making moves out west where the terrain & anti-Russian sentiment is even harder for them to fight.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

40 Mile Convoy Update


So I posted earlier regarding some more detailed analysis of the composition of the vast "40 Mile Convoy" heading towards Kiev, and assuming that some of you have already read it (and don't want to have to reread that article), will simply post a link here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8504073#msg8504073

Now, we have The Guardian with a few additional data analytical points, which I don't believe anybody else has posted.

(Excerpt from link at bottom live feed)

Dead centre of the picture, circulated by the satellite company Maxar Technologies on Sunday, a small clearing is visible, and next to it, on the road heading south towards the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, a small proportion of a vast convoy of Russian military vehicles – estimated to be 40 miles long – accompanied by 15,000 troops.

In places, the military vehicles can be seen three abreast, almost blocking the road. Other images of the convoy seem to explain its belligerent purpose: fuel tankers and trucks carrying food, ammunition and soldiers.

Elsewhere, just visible are the shapes of towed and self-propelled artillery pieces, BMP3 armoured carriers and Russian main tanks. In places you can see the tracks of Russian vehicles that have gone off the road – perhaps to scout against attack from the flanks – visible in the fresh snow covering the fields.

....

And in some images released by Maxar on Monday, troops appeared to have arrived at where they would halt, deploying in camps outside the city, including in and around the town of Zdvyzhivka, to the north of Kyiv

....

On Tuesday the head of the convoy was reportedly passing near the heavily contested Hostomel airbase 17 miles north of Kyiv’s city centre. There are fears that the force in the convoy could be deployed against the nearby district of Obolonskyi, the adjacent village of Horenka, and the main roads running through Obolonskyi towards the city’s centre.

....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/vast-russian-military-convoy-kyiv-siege-ukraine


Your Humble Servant NOVA merely passing on the news.....

I’m getting exceptionally pissed than Ukraine wasn’t given buckets of drones and MLRS. We are sitting here watching the progress of the to be butchers of Kyiv and no one seems able to do a damn thing about it. A few Reapers would have cleaned the whole thing up.

The stated reasons for not giving more aerial capabilities don't quite add up, IMO.

The Slovaks don't want to part with their operational fighters (while they train with F-16s) until Poland takes over the responsibility of defending their air space. The Bulgarians don't want to part with their operational fighters until their own F-16 training is complete. If Western Europe and the USA were committed to helping Ukraine with the conventional phase of the war (our Foreign Minister, for instance, said the UK doesn't rule out giving Ukraine jets - something that just doesn't make sense), these reasons would be quickly resolved by backfilling the air forces with better jets and promising a few more to sweeten the deal.

Poland is the only one of this trio to state that its primary reason for refusing transfers is avoiding escalation by provision of lethal aid. However, it is already providing and facilitating the delivery of lethal aid that is greater (in $, but not strategic, terms) than the jets. Obviously the move could anger Putin, but it is hardly without precedent and it could quieten the pundits who play with fire by pushing for a no-fly zone. It's not as much of an escalation for NATO as Poland claims, but it could focus his ire on Poland in particular.

What makes the situation so odd is that all of the Russian planes in their possession are now going to get a whole lot more difficult to maintain. The main supply of spare parts and maintenance crews for these was Russia, and the backup option was Ukraine. Neither will have much to offer to NATO states anymore, so these planes will become prohibitively expensive to operate over the next few years.

My guess is that some states in this chain of countries - the countries who could backfill the air forces with Soviet planes and/or the potential donors themselves - have decided that helping the conventional war isn't worthwhile and marking their countries as the firmest supporters of Ukraine isn't desirable. If Western leaders have taken this view, then most of the military aid's primary purpose hasn't been sent to help with the war, but to flood the country with armaments for the insurgency that they believe will follow.

This would track with the military aid given to Ukraine so far consisting mostly of light and portable (but by no means cheap) weaponry. MANPADS, RPGs and anti-tank missiles aren't sufficient for counteroffensives or even aerial defence, but they do nicely for desperate men running around in the woods who hold no territory.

If this is the approach the West is taking, there are multiple serious problems with it. The most obvious is that the more blatantly Ukraine's defence is abandoned by its so-called allies (assuming it is eventually lost), the more demoralised Ukrainians are likely to be if and when an insurgency kicks off.

[Mopsus]

Updated battlefield situation:

Russians are still slow & ineffective, but slowly gaining ground and encircling areas with stiff resistance.

https://twitter.com/TruthsUnchained/status/1498806054418845701

That maps looks like a map of a Russian 'Sudetenland'.

Russia will probably assert some time or another that the unconquered parts of Ukraine form the "new" borders of the country.

The most likely next development is that the Russian forces coming in from the south and northeast are going to encircle the Ukrainian forces in the east, then form a united front and push to the Dnieper. The question is, what are the Russians going to do then? Call a ceasefire and set up a puppet government in the east? Then even if the remaining Ukrainian rump state joins NATO it won’t technically be a NATO country on Russia’s border...

[NOVA Green]

Mighty Exxon is pulling out of Russia following BP & Shell!

(Quoted for brevity from The Wall Street Journal)


"Exxon to Shut Down Oil Production in Russia After Ukraine Attack

Texas energy giant will exit its Sakhalin project in Russia’s Far East, following similar moves by BP and Shell

Exxon Mobil Corp. said it is halting operations at a multibillion-dollar oil and gas project in Russia and will make no further investments in the country following its attack on Ukraine.

The U.S. oil giant said Tuesday that it is preparing to shut down production from the massive Sakhalin Island development in Russia’s Far East. Exxon owns a 30% stake in the project, alongside Russian state-controlled oil producer Rosneft, Japan’s Sodeco and India’s ONGC Videsh. The company said it is taking steps to exit from the consortium.

Exxon is also developing plans for expatriate staff in Russia to leave the country, if the employees wish to do so, according to a person familiar with the plans. The majority of Exxon’s roughly 1,000-person workforce in Russia is made up of Russian citizens.

“Exxon Mobil supports the people of Ukraine as they seek to defend their freedom and determine their own future as a nation,” the company said. “We deplore Russia’s military action that violates the territorial integrity of Ukraine and endangers its people.”

....

Pulling out of Sakhalin will be difficult for Exxon. The Texas company operates the development, meaning it is responsible for keeping production flowing and other essential functions. It may have to leave critical staff in place to ensure the project is safely shut down. Selling its stake could also be challenging as the market for Russian assets has quickly shrunk.

Exxon has pulled back from Russia over the past decade following previous rounds of sanctions. It previously said it has withdrawn from 10 joint ventures with Russian entities that were covered by U.S. sanctions and wrote-down some of those assets. Exxon has said that it is fully compliant with U.S. sanctions.

Sakhalin was unaffected by previous sanctions, and Exxon has continued to invest in expanding it. Over the past two decades, the Sakhalin consortium has exported more than 1 billion barrels of oil and about 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas from the development, one of the largest-ever foreign investments in Russia.

The consortium signed a production-sharing agreement with the Russian government in 1996 and production began flowing in 2005. Production from Sakhalin has declined as the asset has aged and currently represents about 3% of Exxon’s overall oil production. Exxon and Rosneft have been working to develop the asset’s remaining natural-gas reserves in a large liquefied natural project that could be operational by 2027.

"





https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-to-shut-down-oil-production-in-russia-after-ukraine-attack-11646180028?st=o5iigl2pbudbwa8&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I wonder after when this is over, what will be left of Russia.

[Not Me, Us]

The biggest problem with the Western doves is that they truly have no red line. To them, anything to prevent something that would slightly raise the risk of a nuclear exchange is something which ought to be strived for at any cost. I am firmly convinced Putin could start sending Ukrainians to literal death camps (this is not excessive hyperbole for several posters have said there is no red line) and would not be stopped from doing it out of Western fear.

There are obviously risks inherent with escalation, but a lot of people seem to have the immediate assumption that any direct involvement=apocalypse. As if those on the Russian side want to do Moscow turned into oblivion and their children dead. Yes we have real stakes in the game, but so do they. That’s why they will fold when pressure gets too high, and the only reason they are doing this now is because they truly want to test the boundaries. The problem is, the West doesn’t have boundaries. In our post-Cold War society, we became accustomed to the idea of no inherent risk of nuclear exchange at all, and now seem attached to that idea at a horrifying cost.

Make no mistake, a world in which Russia invaded Ukraine is not one which will ever resemble a world in which they didn’t, even if we sing the songs of appeasement out of fear.

You’re an insane warmonger, and nobody should take anything you say seriously. The amount of death and destruction a conventional war between NATO and Russia would cause would be catastrophic. And yes, anything that slightly increases the risk of nuclear hellfire raining from the sky, killing all advanced life on Earth, should be avoided at all costs. The West has done plenty to support Ukraine and will hopefully do more in the future, but war with Russia is untenable. And stop with the hyperbole, get a hobby or something.

If Nazi Germany and US or UK both have nuclear weapons in 1939, how would you respond to the German invasion of Poland?

This would be an obvious exception, as would any actual genocide in Ukraine. But both of these are pointless hypotheticals, because one is in the past and the other is never going to happen.