Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

What is left to negotiate?

If this is about Ukraine joining NATO, then there is someting to negotiate

...but since Russia doesn't believe that Ukraine is real country, but is really part of Russia, there is not much room to negotiate

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/pragatipal6/status/1498168588858920960?s=21

Nothing says fighting Nazis like sending this guy
 to go kill some Jews.

[It’s so Joever]

Extremely good thread analyzing the Russian effort so far:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167?s=20&t=NdAdtfsO...

I agree 100% with this and this is why I do believe Ukraine will fall.

[Storr]

Lol at the dude who fell off his APC:https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1498383109271793668?s=20&t=TJlcvf...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Extremely good thread analyzing the Russian effort so far:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167?s=20&t=NdAdtfsO...

I agree 100% with this and this is why I do believe Ukraine will fall.

Me as well.

[WMS]

Extremely good thread analyzing the Russian effort so far:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167?s=20&t=NdAdtfsO...

I agree 100% with this and this is why I do believe Ukraine will fall.

Unfortunately, I have to concur. However, I’d like to challenge all assertions that Ukraine falling will “end the crisis”. If you think Putin ‘winning’ means we can all just go back to normal no it f***ing won’t! Until the Russian push for Empire is defeated decisively this crisis will. Never. End.

[Silent Hunter]

Extremely good thread analyzing the Russian effort so far:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167?s=20&t=NdAdtfsO...

I agree 100% with this and this is why I do believe Ukraine will fall.

The sanctions are biting significantly. We also don't know just how good the Russian stocks of weaponry, fuel, etc. are.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the decisive factor in this war is going to be - can Russia gain enough ground control in Ukraine, quickly enough, to outrun sanctions and gain an upper hand, vis a vis what they would gain in a settlement right now? Do they think they can? If they don't think they can, they settle for sure. If they aren't sure, it depends. If they do think they can, they are unlikely, perhaps very unlikely, to settle.

[Storr]

Extremely good thread analyzing the Russian effort so far:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167?s=20&t=NdAdtfsO...

I agree 100% with this and this is why I do believe Ukraine will fall.

Me as well.

The logic in that twitter thread is why I feel Ukraine east of the Dnieper and Kyiv may (likely?) fall. But right bank Ukraine? Putin would need an army of at least 400,000 to successfully occupy the whole country. Not to mention the difficulty of getting over the Carpathians to Zakarpattia Oblast in order to complete the job and snuff out a "rump state" government from surviving there.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro is not on Russia's side. He just refuses to take Ukraine's side.
Maduro on the other hand...

‘Neutral’ and ‘On Russia’s side’ is quite a fine distinction these days.

Only because the Western narrative decided to force places that aren’t involved with this to pick a side.

Brazil has long been a neutral country, that’s our main diplomatic approach since the 90s. We don’t want enemies. Bolsonaro adopting neutral stance, against these harsh sanctions against Russia, is something that even a leftist government would support because it’s close to a consensus approach:

https://www.twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1498370398496477191
At least on this some level of long-term consistency is maintained although they messed on the UN vote. Follows neutrality position and helps to not isolate Russia even more. Literally the first thing this government does in almost 4 years that isn’t completely dumb and a reason of shame. This isn’t our conflict and it’s wrong to take any side, stay friends with both US and Russia in order to find a middle ground solution.

Especially when there’s the risk of nuclear conflict, it’s scary how some people here want to escalate things so aggressively when them and their countries are not even involved on this.

[President Johnson]

I think the decisive factor in this war is going to be - can Russia gain enough ground control in Ukraine, quickly enough, to outrun sanctions and gain an upper hand, vis a vis what they would gain in a settlement right now? Do they think they can? If they don't think they can, they settle for sure. If they aren't sure, it depends. If they do think they can, they are unlikely, perhaps very unlikely, to settle.

Not sure, Putin seems determined that his demands are met and Ukraine can never agree to these terms. Even if the Ukrainian military is defeated, underground resistance in asymmetric warfare will continue. I think this conflict won't be over until Putin is done, ergo removed from power. In one way or another.

[jaichind]

For all the talk about denazification and stopping a genocide, it bears repeating that the people being bombed with cluster munitions are the Russian speaking civilians of Kharkiv.

Sigh.  In WWII there were 5 battles of Kharkov.  I never thought I will see another battle of Kharkov.  Hopefully this madness stops and a peace can be worked out before the fighting actually reaches the city.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the decisive factor in this war is going to be - can Russia gain enough ground control in Ukraine, quickly enough, to outrun sanctions and gain an upper hand, vis a vis what they would gain in a settlement right now? Do they think they can? If they don't think they can, they settle for sure. If they aren't sure, it depends. If they do think they can, they are unlikely, perhaps very unlikely, to settle.

Not sure, Putin seems determined that his demands are met and Ukraine can never agree to these terms. Even if the Ukrainian military is defeated, underground resistance in asymmetric warfare will continue. I think this conflict won't be over until Putin is done, ergo removed from power. In one way or another.

I was not referring to any possible underground resistance, but rather to any dealings between an established Ukrainian state and Russia.

[WMS]

Bolsonaro is not on Russia's side. He just refuses to take Ukraine's side.
Maduro on the other hand...

‘Neutral’ and ‘On Russia’s side’ is quite a fine distinction these days.

Only because the Western narrative decided to force places that aren’t involved with this to pick a side.

Brazil has long been a neutral country, that’s our main diplomatic approach since the 90s. We don’t want enemies. Bolsonaro adopting neutral stance, against these harsh sanctions against Russia, is something that even a leftist government would support because it’s close to a consensus approach:

https://www.twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1498370398496477191
At least on this some level of long-term consistency is maintained although they messed on the UN vote. Follows neutrality position and helps to not isolate Russia even more. Literally the first thing this government does in almost 4 years that isn’t completely dumb and a reason of shame. This isn’t our conflict and it’s wrong to take any side, stay friends with both US and Russia in order to find a middle ground solution.

Especially when there’s the risk of nuclear conflict, it’s scary how some people here want to escalate things so aggressively when them and their countries are not even involved on this.

Well then, under your logic Brazil should follow the same stance if the U.S. invaded, say, Cuba?

I somehow doubt that would be the case, tankie.

[Storebought]

How to lose friends and alienate allies:

Nigeria condemns treatment of Africans tyring to flee Ukraine

The Nigerian government has condemned the treatment of thousands of its students and citizens fleeing the war in Ukraine, amid growing concerns that African students are facing discrimination by security officials and being denied entry into Poland.

A deluge of reports and footage posted on social media in the past week has shown acts of discrimination and violence against African, Asian and Caribbean citizens – many of them studying in Ukraine – while fleeing Ukrainian cities and at some of the country’s border posts.

The Russian allegations of Ukraine being a "Nazi Country" have a real chance of sticking in the nonaligned countries if Ukraine/Poland don't take issue with this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What stances are Indonesia, South Africa, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia taking?
(to pick an assortment of countries with a history of non-aligned/relatively neutral foreign policies)

[Damocles]

The Russian allegations of Ukraine being a "Nazi Country" have a real chance of sticking in the nonaligned countries if Ukraine/Poland don't take issue with this.

LOL. As if Russia doesn't have a neo-Nazi problem? Hello Kettle, it's Pot!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Extremely good thread analyzing the Russian effort so far:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167?s=20&t=NdAdtfsO...

I agree 100% with this and this is why I do believe Ukraine will fall.

Unfortunately, I have to concur. However, I’d like to challenge all assertions that Ukraine falling will “end the crisis”. If you think Putin ‘winning’ means we can all just go back to normal no it f***ing won’t! Until the Russian push for Empire is defeated decisively this crisis will. Never. End.

This is why a 'Russian victory' looks very pyrrhic to me. Does everyone expect, this time next year, everyone will forget about the conflict and Ukrainians will just learn to accept & heel to Russia's hand?

If Kiev/Ukraine falls; the sanctions won't magically disappear, the Russian economy & European defenses won't return to the same state they were last week, international condemnation & isolation of Russia won't subside, NATO won't shrink, the fighting won't stop & whoever Putin puts in charge can never appear in public without the very likely chance of an assassination attempt. And that's assuming everyone still in Kiev doesn't perish from an agonizing siege or bloody slaughter.

We get it, you & damn-near everyone else here expect a Russian victory. I'm much more curious how everyone thinks Russia will sustain it for the foreseeable future.

[afleitch]

I mean, I don't really understand these 'oh I think Ukraine will fall' takes.

Of course Ukraine will fall, if fighting is sustained. It was always going to.

But the difference between Ukraine falling in 48 hours, to holding on for a full week is the difference between night and day. Russia has taken economic, military and a status hit that it doesn't have the option to recover from; that's up to the international community. It was have little say in an internationally recognised 'peace'. Even if it settles to a status quo for Ukraine, with Donbass and Crimea being as they were and Ukrainian democracy with the sword over it's head, while Ukraine might not be in NATO any time soon, Finland will be. Russia will be encircled regardless.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro is not on Russia's side. He just refuses to take Ukraine's side.
Maduro on the other hand...

‘Neutral’ and ‘On Russia’s side’ is quite a fine distinction these days.

Only because the Western narrative decided to force places that aren’t involved with this to pick a side.

Brazil has long been a neutral country, that’s our main diplomatic approach since the 90s. We don’t want enemies. Bolsonaro adopting neutral stance, against these harsh sanctions against Russia, is something that even a leftist government would support because it’s close to a consensus approach:

https://www.twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1498370398496477191
At least on this some level of long-term consistency is maintained although they messed on the UN vote. Follows neutrality position and helps to not isolate Russia even more. Literally the first thing this government does in almost 4 years that isn’t completely dumb and a reason of shame. This isn’t our conflict and it’s wrong to take any side, stay friends with both US and Russia in order to find a middle ground solution.

Especially when there’s the risk of nuclear conflict, it’s scary how some people here want to escalate things so aggressively when them and their countries are not even involved on this.

Well then, under your logic Brazil should follow the same stance if the U.S. invaded, say, Cuba?

I somehow doubt that would be the case, tankie.

Neither USA or RUSSIA or CHINA. Cuba, Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina are Latin American neighbors and therefore ARE our problem. Other places far away are not.

If everyone who doesn’t side with your cause is a “tankie” you will find not much sympathy here, as the mainstream forces here on both right and left support neutrality.

If you don’t respect or sympathize with the Latin American background and perspective, there’s not much reason for people to try to look through the Eastern European one either.

The Ukrainian cause is valid, but there’s a whole context behind it that relates to each place differently. And that’s okay.

You won’t find this “shame rhetoric forcing into submission to what I want” to work that much here within our diplomacy or with me. I favor respectful debates.

[WMS]

What stances are Indonesia, South Africa, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia taking?
(to pick an assortment of countries with a history of non-aligned/relatively neutral foreign policies)

Amusingly enough, they’re on a spectrum in the exact order you typed them out.

Indonesia has been with the West so far on everything.

South Africa has been neutral-leaning pro-Western.

Bangladesh has been purely neutral.

Ethiopia has been neutral-leaning pro-Russia.

As of this moment, anyway.

[Torie]

I think the decisive factor in this war is going to be - can Russia gain enough ground control in Ukraine, quickly enough, to outrun sanctions and gain an upper hand, vis a vis what they would gain in a settlement right now? Do they think they can? If they don't think they can, they settle for sure. If they aren't sure, it depends. If they do think they can, they are unlikely, perhaps very unlikely, to settle.

Not sure, Putin seems determined that his demands are met and Ukraine can never agree to these terms. Even if the Ukrainian military is defeated, underground resistance in asymmetric warfare will continue. I think this conflict won't be over until Putin is done, ergo removed from power. In one way or another.

That is my opinion, and I think it is obvious. Putin is willing to pay the price, and bear any burden.

[jaichind]

Assuming Russia survives this wave of sanctions (if it can make it past the first couple of months then most likely it will have survived) then it will be a Russia vs Europe race on who can decouple from each other faster. 

On paper Europe has an edge in terms of getting alternative sources of energy.  For the USA to help I recommend USA/Canada go on a "Hydrocarbon New Deal" to have a massive surge in gas and oil energy output to be exported to Europe.  Russia has the tougher job to shift their energy exports to PRC and India.  Russia also has to find alternative sources of imports (mostly manufacturing goods from PRC) to replace those that it gets from Europe.  Here the ability to transport these goods over the vast Eurasian plain would be a challenge.   From this vantage point Xi's Belt and Road idea from 10 years ago now looks like genius.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What stances are Indonesia, South Africa, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia taking?
(to pick an assortment of countries with a history of non-aligned/relatively neutral foreign policies)

Amusingly enough, they’re on a spectrum in the exact order you typed them out.

Indonesia has been with the West so far on everything.

South Africa has been neutral-leaning pro-Western.

Bangladesh has been purely neutral.

Ethiopia has been neutral-leaning pro-Russia.

As of this moment, anyway.

Not surprising.
Indonesia broadly relies on American arms, not Russia's.
South Africa I don't know much about, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were somewhat opposed to Russia on basis of its actions that run in contravention with international conventions.
Bangladesh has basically no horse in this fight at all, and is closely allied with India, which further incentivizes neutrality.
Ethiopia has a strong relationship with Russia in many ways, both from Cold War years and more recently.
Interestingly, the Russia-Ethiopia relationship is very old. Russian arms helped the Ethiopians defeat the Italians at Adwa in 1896, and they shared a sort of Orthodox Christian solidarity between themselves.

[pppolitics]

I think the decisive factor in this war is going to be - can Russia gain enough ground control in Ukraine, quickly enough, to outrun sanctions and gain an upper hand, vis a vis what they would gain in a settlement right now? Do they think they can? If they don't think they can, they settle for sure. If they aren't sure, it depends. If they do think they can, they are unlikely, perhaps very unlikely, to settle.

Not sure, Putin seems determined that his demands are met and Ukraine can never agree to these terms. Even if the Ukrainian military is defeated, underground resistance in asymmetric warfare will continue. I think this conflict won't be over until Putin is done, ergo removed from power. In one way or another.

I mean, it look the US twenty years to realize that it lost the Afghan war.