Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[It’s so Joever]

New changes in the frontlines according to Wikipedia maps (not necessarily accurate)

-Major Russian gains in the southern front. Troops hav reached Orikhiv and Polohy. Tokamak still being contested but is surrounded. They also made it to Dniprorudne and Vasylivka. Enerhodar at serious risk

Maybe trying to cross the Dnipro from there, but I’m not sure.

The progress on other fronts seems to be either stagnant or unupdated.

[Storr]

Has anything come of those alleged Belarusian paratroopers?

Seemingly no. Which is good, because they would have likely gotten slaughtered.

[NOVA Green]

Has anything come of those alleged Belarusian paratroopers?

You know, I've been wondering about as well for a bit.

Maybe their deployment got delayed and they overslept their reporting time to the barracks, could have been a COVID outbreak, could just be that at the last minute the mission got scrubbed?

Good to know that the mighty Russian Army will always have Belarusian Paratroopers in Reserve!

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1498063410189250563

Freedom fries all over again.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1498158130454306826

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1498063410189250563
Freedom fries all over again.

Throw the book at whoever did this.
Vandalism is not acceptable.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1498158130454306826

ура

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The repercussions of these sanctions are impossible to understate. Forget Russia; the loss of remittances alone is going to be crippling for Central Asian countries. The collateral damage is going to hit countries and people across the world, not just Putin. Perhaps the economic damage inflicted could cause Putin to back down or be removed but it could just as easily cause an unimaginable crisis down the line. Europe especially but even America won't be spared from the impact this has on already stressed supply chains and overheating inflation. I think a lot of people aren't necessarily thinking through the long term results here, and the fact that some measures to punish Putin could severely backfire.

On the military front probably the biggest development is the reported encirclement of Mariupol by motorized elements moving in from Crimea alongside 2,000 marines. Most civilians and press have been evacuated so news is spotty and it's unclear whether the Russians are moving in or if they're opting to put it under siege.

https://twitter.com/Lfmorin/status/1498143635564544005

Finally,

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1498125942857814020

"Mriya was built by the entire Soviet Union to transport Buran.

In trying to unite Ukraine and Russia by force Putin instead destroys what unites us"

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1498155991661228037

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1498063410189250563

Freedom fries all over again.

I f**king knew this would happen.
Watch this turn into general Slavic hate in general that ironically hurts even the Ukrainian-American population because the fat American public is too f**king stupid to even know the difference.
 

[Yoda]

UK starting to really lay down the law for money investments from Russian Elites....   (Per CNN ~ 1 Hr 5 Minutes ago):

"UK to crack down on "dirty money" from Russian oligarchs

so they knew about Russian dirty before today but didn't do anything about it and they know about non-Russian dirty money now but they don't plan on doing anything about that?

That was 100% my thought when I read the article.   

Almost reminds me a bit of the situation involving banks in Miami area at the time that movies such as "Scarface" and TV series such as "Miami Vice" were popular.

Not that there isn't tons of dirty real estate money floating around in the US today, but tends to be a lot more dispersed to the point it gets hard for US GVT agencies and Federal Prosecutors to be able to get cases to trial (Regardless of domestic vs international assets).

Oligarch money is all over the place, but particularly concentrated in London and New York. They like buying exclusive properties in high-prestige Western cities, it gives an air of respectability.

Yup. And Miami. I can't wait until the U.S. and U.K. start selling off these properties to raise money for rebuilding Ukraine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1498063410189250563
Freedom fries all over again.

I f**king knew this would happen.
Watch this turn into general Slavic hate in general that ironically hurts even the Ukrainian-American population because the fat American public is too f**king stupid to even know the difference.
 

As I said: throw the book at whoever did this.
Vandalism is not acceptable.
If someone goes to jail in order to provide the public an example, so be it.

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1498156284478115841?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[lfromnj]

Lol at Ukraine casualties claim of a 1:20 ratio

It's not all that farfetched given how cartoonishly disorganized the Russian military and leadership has been. I hope they are fully repelled and thoroughly embarrassed.

I don't know how the advances still seem there. Ukranians have to be giving up a lot of important strategic ground while still inflicting so many casualties. I don't believe anything close to 20:1 is happening.

[Blue3]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498036010038480900


https://twitter.com/joshualipsky/status/1498024933070446602

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498160630209126400

[KaiserDave]

Russophobia is bad, whoever vandalized the establishment should be prosecuted.

Keep your focus on the actual enemy people, the evil madman in Moscow.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498036010038480900

The Kremlin lying about their plans for this actually tracks with one of those videos of captured Russian soldiers who were claiming that this was initially just described to them as a training exercise & that they were flung into this haphazardly.

[BG-NY]

Really is an information war. Lots of fake news reports, particularly coming from the losing side.

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498160630209126400

Next we'll hear it's been closed for the day.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kremlin lied to lawmakers?
The Iraq 2003 parallels are getting stronger.

[Blue3]

Kaliningrad secession talks

[Storr]

Russian column in Melitopol. It would be a shame if the Russians ever figured out to keep their vehicles a few hundred meters apart in convoys.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498167214423396354?s=20&t=KF6umTBAp...

[compucomp]

At this point it's abundantly clear that Russia should have shut off its internet for the duration of the war and that if they had the capacity to knock out Ukraine's internet, they should have done so. How the hell is an army supposed to keep operational security and secrecy if anybody with a smartphone can record troop and vehicle movements and upload it to Twitter/Telegram/etc immediately?

Cope.

I don't need to cope, I'm not Russian. China is not a party to this conflict. However there are surely valuable lessons to be learned, and the PLA should be carefully studying and analyzing this campaign to figure out what worked, what didn't, and what should have been done, and to adjust accordingly.

If you had to guess, what lessons do you think there are to be learned from this in general?

It's still early, I'm no expert, and obviously I don't have all the information, but a few things I've noticed:

-Russia may have assumed that Ukrainian resistance would collapse quickly and/or there were supporters in Ukraine like in 2014. Neither of these materialized and should not have been counted on.
-The "lightning strike", paratrooper drop, and amphibious landing attempts to take cities have generally failed. But there have been successes taking cities in the south which seem to come from a more conventional land attack from the Crimea. Maybe Russia's strategy should not have centered on the former.
-Aforementioned point on operational secrecy. Also cut off enemy's internet if at all possible, Zelensky has used it to great effect to boost morale and will to fight.
-The Ukrainian air force should have been destroyed on the ground on day 1. The fact that it still flies is incredible. The Russians should have learned this the hard way when the Germans destroyed 2000+ airplanes on day 1 of Barbarossa and it basically let them run wild for 6 months.
-The attack may have generated the public will in the West for sanctions that will affect their daily lives and direct intervention is even creeping into the conversation. As of last week it was conventional wisdom that Europe wouldn't risk seeing surges in energy prices but now it seems like they are willing to endure it. This is also too early to call as the sanctions haven't been felt on either side, but Chinese in particular may have discounted this kind of reaction from the West given that to them wearing masks is an intolerable burden to curb COVID.

[John Dule]

Kaliningrad secession talks

Expecting nothing to come of this.