Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969
Russian state media accidentally pre-published Putin’s planned victory speech.

The upshot, Ukraine is rightfully Russian and denazification means annexation into the Russian federation

Can we finally put to bed the notion that the Minsk agreement Russia ignored anyway or any other unspecified compromise would have prevented the invasion?

He clearly rules out annexation, but everything else you say is correct

He doesn’t, ‘statehood won’t be liquidated’ means Ukraine as a constituent republic of the Russian Federation. TBF, it could also mean a Belarusian ‘union state’ agreement.

I think it is the latter.

Possible, but there is little practice difference. This is a strait up war of conquest and no concessions short of total pre-emptive capitulation was going to stop it.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969
Russian state media accidentally pre-published Putin’s planned victory speech.

The upshot, Ukraine is rightfully Russian and denazification means annexation into the Russian federation

Can we finally put to bed the notion that the Minsk agreement Russia ignored anyway or any other unspecified compromise would have prevented the invasion?

He clearly rules out annexation, but everything else you say is correct

He doesn’t, ‘statehood won’t be liquidated’ means Ukraine as a constituent republic of the Russian Federation. TBF, it could also mean a Belarusian ‘union state’ agreement.

I think it is the latter.

Possible, but there is little practice difference. This is a strait up war of conquest and no concessions short of total pre-emptive capitulation was going to stop it.

I completely agree

[NOVA Green]

Haven't seen this posted yet, but looks like many of the reserve Russian military mechanized units are inoperable... per CNN as of some ~20-30 minutes back.



"CNN team observes inoperable Russian vehicles

A CNN team south of Belgorod, Russia, near the Ukrainian border has observed Russian vehicles that are broken down or inoperable, as US and Western officials say that a portion of the Russian forces amassed on the border with Ukraine were unusable.

The team has seen several broken-down armored personnel carriers, an armored vehicle being towed, a howitzer that was being repaired on the side of the road when its track had come off, and more.

On the eve of the invasion, US officials said approximately 80% of Russia’s military force amassed on Ukraine’s borders was in forward positions.

A US official said the US believes a portion of the remaining force was inoperable. At the same time, a European official told CNN Russia’s fictional pullback in the days before the invasion had included removing broken vehicles from the field.

A senior defense official said Sunday morning that Russia still has a significant capacity of forces that have not yet been deployed into Ukraine. "






https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-27-22/h_421bd320351d78d3577bf40161a88bd9

[Astatine]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

Sunday morning, 8:00 AM.

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

We've had like 60 pages in the last day, so I'd say Saturday or Sunday

These are both looking unlikely now. Posting in this thread slowed down a lot, not sure why.

BigSerg is muted and Vaccinated Russian Bear has vanished off the face of the forum. Plus some of the usual International General Discussion posters have been very quiet about this.

Hope the Vaxx Bear didn't get arrested at a peace rally or something.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

Sunday morning, 8:00 AM.

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

We've had like 60 pages in the last day, so I'd say Saturday or Sunday

These are both looking unlikely now. Posting in this thread slowed down a lot, not sure why.

BigSerg is muted and Vaccinated Russian Bear has vanished off the face of the forum. Plus some of the usual International General Discussion posters have been very quiet about this.

Hope the Vaxx Bear didn't get arrested at a peace rally or something.

That feels quite possible. Though we'll probably never know for certain.
Best of luck to him in that case.

[NOVA Green]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Wall Street Journal update as of 12 minutes ago--- looks like Russia will be going into an immediate recession:

"Ruble's Plunge Is Expected to Drive Surge in Russian Inflation

The ruble was quoted at 110 to 120 per dollar by Russian banks on Sunday. It had traded at 75 before Russia's invasion of Ukraine and 83 on Friday. That plunge in the currency's value of 30% to 40% would add about 5 percentage points to inflation, said Sergey Alekashenko, who was a senior Russian central-bank official in the late 1990s and now lives in the U.S.

Inflation had already climbed to 8.7% in January, more than double the central bank’s 4% target. Mr. Alekashenko added inflation could rise even more if disruptions to the payments system reduce the supply of goods.

Earlier this month, Russia’s central bank raised its key interest rate a full percentage point to 9.5% to combat inflation. The bank, which Western economists generally see as committed to controlling inflation, is likely to raise rates significantly further, pushing Russia into recession."



https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/ruble-s-plunge-is-expected-to-drive-sharp-rise-in-russian-inflation-GMz1Z1wtWswDAPme44GV

[President Johnson]

Disgusting.

https://twitter.com/Markusxx79/status/1498058062904631298

[The Free North]

If this happens, I can only assume protests will break out again in Belarus. Perhaps this will be the last decision that Minsk makes under current management.


https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498046970614599682

[Frodo]

Even Switzerland is no longer neutral:

Even Switzerland is getting tougher on Russia: EU sanctions will apply there

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If this happens, I can only assume protests will break out again in Belarus. Perhaps this will be the last decision that Minsk makes under current management.


https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498046970614599682

The so-called peace talks would be off as well, since they're conditional on no further aggression from Belarusian territory until they're over.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If this happens, I can only assume protests will break out again in Belarus. Perhaps this will be the last decision that Minsk makes under current management.


https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498046970614599682

The CIA should do a coup d'etat against the Belarus government

[Mehmentum]

If this happens, I can only assume protests will break out again in Belarus. Perhaps this will be the last decision that Minsk makes under current management.


https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498046970614599682

Amazing.  Putin's found soldiers who want to be in Ukraine even less than the Russians.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If this happens, I can only assume protests will break out again in Belarus. Perhaps this will be the last decision that Minsk makes under current management.


https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498046970614599682

Amazing.  Putin's found soldiers who want to be in Ukraine even less than the Russians.

I wonder if some would switch sides.

[Storr]

If this happens, I can only assume protests will break out again in Belarus. Perhaps this will be the last decision that Minsk makes under current management.


https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498046970614599682

The CIA should do a coup d'etat against the Belarus government

I think the people of Belarus would be likely to do that themselves. Lukanhesko barely held on to power after his sham reelection in 2020.

[KaiserDave]

This is going to be a disaster for Lukashenko

[Helsinkian]

How about this: with Ukraine's approval, NATO troops are sent to Western Ukraine (which does not, as of now, have Russian troops in it) and set up a perimeter and a no-fly zone in that part of the country. If the Ukrainians are defeated in the east and in Kyiv, they can withdraw there, and Russia will not dare attack them with NATO present.

[Storr]

This is going to be a disaster for Lukashenko

He even publicly stated Belarus would only get involved if Russia was attacked by NATO. He says contradictory things all the time, but I'm not sure what on Earth state media would be able to spin an invasion of Ukraine as.

"Russia has sent thousands of troops into Belarus, but the country’s authoritarian leader said Friday there will only be war if “aggression is committed against Belarus” or “our ally Russia.”

“If our country faces an aggression, there will be hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers here, who will defend this sacred land together with hundreds of thousands of Belarusians,” President Alexander Lukashenko said in a national address."

But he warned that the West is seeking “to drown the Russian-Ukrainian brotherhood, our Slavic brotherhood, in blood,” adding, “But we will return Ukraine to the bosom of Slavs. We will definitely do it.”"

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-alexander-lukashenko-belarus-ukraine-conflict-crisis/

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

BASED

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498065775797563393

[President Johnson]

If this happens, I can only assume protests will break out again in Belarus. Perhaps this will be the last decision that Minsk makes under current management.


https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498046970614599682

Amazing.  Putin's found soldiers who want to be in Ukraine even less than the Russians.

I wonder if some would switch sides.

I honestly think the EU should consider to grant asylum to any Russian or Belarus soldier in Ukraine who instantly quits.

[Mike88]

What's the point of tomorrow's peace talks if Belarus plans to do this? Just a PR stunt?

It smelled fishy and it was fishy.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

This is going to be a disaster for Lukashenko

Hey, at least on the bright side, Belarus might finally be free for the first time since 1919.

[NOVA Green]

If this happens, I can only assume protests will break out again in Belarus. Perhaps this will be the last decision that Minsk makes under current management.


https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498046970614599682

Amazing.  Putin's found soldiers who want to be in Ukraine even less than the Russians.

Insert Twitter footage of drunk Belarusian soldiers plying their Russian allied soldiers with Vodka and convincing them not to go to war against Ukraine and stay in Belarus instead for another Night or Two....

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, Hungary is dealing with their own issues according to the NYT...

(Don't want to overquote but there is more there)

"The war has forced President Viktor Orban of Hungary to reset his political calculations.

ZAHONY, Hungary — A dusty town with a train station in northeastern Hungary, near the border with Slovakia and Ukraine, has become a transit point for people fleeing Russia’s war against Ukraine. It also has thrown a wrench into the political calculations of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Hungary’s illiberal, Russia-friendly, anti-immigrant strongman.

Nearly 80,000 people have crossed into Hungary, at Zahony and other towns along the 84-mile border with Ukraine, since President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia ordered his forces into Ukraine last Thursday in the biggest military action to convulse Europe since World War II.

In other circumstances, Mr. Orban’s hard-line refugee policy would have made it impossible for so many people entering the country to get international protection.

...."




https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war/the-war-has-forced-president-viktor-orban-of-hungary-to-reset-his-political-calculations

[The Free North]

I've begun to feel this will all come to a very sharp conclusion soon. Ukraine will not surrender, they will not be defeated easily and there will be a protracted guerilla war or something of that nature if Russia occupies the country. I can't see it getting that far though to be honest.

When markets reopen on Monday, the Russian economy is going to functionally collapse. Billions if not more will be wiped out. Russian companies will be worthless. The currency is worthless. People will have no access to capital, there will eventually be supply shortages of every nature. I've long felt the most endearing aspect of global trade and global capitalism is how it prevents things like this from happening. Putin is part of the global economy and he will soon find out just how painful that reality is for him. The war is not sustainable. There is no victory abroad and there will be more discord at home.

Ultimately, I do not think Putin is well. Something, either mental, or physical, is ailing him. He won't last long. The only question is, will his inner circle let him go nuclear on the way out if it comes to that.

I tend to think not, but part of that is wishful thinking. If we manage to survive this crisis, I think there is tremendous hope for the next few decades in Eastern Europe though. We can only hope.