Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Ukraine needs to find a way to, ahem, halt, the entry of those heavy pieces before they even reach the border.

One impression I had of the Russian attack so far is that it does appear light.  Namely, Ukraine's internet and other infrastructure seem untouched.  So far this assault seems more like a very large commando raid they a real military invasion.  It seems Russia wants to take Ukraine whole without damage thinking Ukraine will fold within a couple of days.  It seems that assumption is incorrect and now Russia risks making the same mistake the USA did in the Vietnam War of a slow escalation when they should have gone in all out on day one.

[Zinneke]

Russian leadership is increasingly insane. German media also reporters that Medvedev talked about reinstating the death penalty in Russia now that they're sanctioned anyway. I have a feeling we're at the beginning of a second Cold War and Ukraine is de facto already a proxy war.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1497524381307838467

I think Medvedev is just looking for internal popularity after his rubber duck episode.

[afleitch]

Twitter outages in Russia.

[jaichind]

I doubt 62% of Americans can point the Ukraine on a map. no offense.

I think it is more about Trump being so unpredictable that Putin would not be able to calculate the odds of cost/benefit effectively and as a result just do nothing and wait until Trump is gone.

[Red Velvet]

Lol I am not sure what different would be if Trump was president?

Don’t get me wrong, Biden is a joke no one takes seriously, but Trump instability is what led to the west losing its international credibility and started giving an opening for more people to feel comfortable about confronting it directly.

His likely victory in 2024 would cement the Western downfall and solidify “the new era” of power shift because not even western allies want to live in a Trump-led world. Not that Biden is a strong alternative for the democrats either, but they made their choice of picking any random weirdo just to substitute Trump instead of having an actual plan of strengthening the nation.

US needs to fix its house first to gain credibility back regarding international issues. Otherwise the trend will just keep deepening itself. Trump is the opposite of that.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russian leadership is increasingly insane. German media also reporters that Medvedev talked about reinstating the death penalty in Russia now that they're sanctioned anyway. I have a feeling we're at the beginning of a second Cold War and Ukraine is de facto already a proxy war.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1497524381307838467

I think Medvedev is just looking for internal popularity after his rubber duck episode.

He’s been one of the main faces of this after Putin and Lavrov. That would not have happened just because he wanted popularity - it is likely he is regaining favour in Putin’s court.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just wanted to say I haven't posted here and don't expect to be, but thank everyone for the important updates, and respect to anyone here who's been calling out Putin's thuggish aggression and fighting Russian propaganda in this very thread. I don't have the emotional energy to do the same right now, but I want to make it clear where I stand. I'm in awe at the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people, and ashamed as a European that the EU isn't doing more to stand up to Putin. We should not be buying a single cent worth of Russian gas right now. I'll happily spend the next Winter in the cold if that's what it takes.

[urutzizu]

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1497533422146887684

Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki:

Today I spoke again with the Prime Minister of Hungary, V. Orbán. And he once again assured me of his support for far-reaching sanctions against Russia. Including about blocking the SWIFT system.

with Cyprus also supporting, Germany looking increasingly isolated now.

[jaichind]

Just wanted to say I haven't posted here and don't expect to be, but thank everyone for the important updates, and respect to anyone here who's been calling out Putin's thuggish aggression and fighting Russian propaganda in this very thread. I don't have the emotional energy to do the same right now, but I want to make it clear where I stand. I'm in awe at the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people, and ashamed as a European that the EU isn't doing more to stand up to Putin. We should not be buying a single cent worth of Russian gas right now. I'll happily spend the next Winter in the cold if that's what it takes.

Why do you ask the EU to do what even the Ukrainians are not willing to do?  Right now a record level of Russian gas is flowing through Ukraine pipes to reach EU economies and collecting the transit fees, of course.  If Ukraine really thinks that hitting Russia hard is the right thing to do they should just shut off that gas and give up that transit fee?  In the end, even Ukraine needs money.  There is a Mexcian saying "With money, the dog dances, without money one dances like a dog."

[Person Man]

Lol I am not sure what different would be if Trump was president?

Don’t get me wrong, Biden is a joke no one takes seriously, but Trump instability is what led to the west losing its international credibility and started giving an opening for more people to feel comfortable about confronting it directly.

His likely victory in 2024 would cement the Western downfall and solidify “the new era” of power shift because not even western allies want to live in a Trump-led world. Not that Biden is a strong alternative for the democrats either, but they made their choice of picking any random weirdo just to substitute Trump instead of having an actual plan of strengthening the nation.

US needs to fix its house first to gain credibility back regarding international issues. Otherwise the trend will just keep deepening itself. Trump is the opposite of that.

You might be right.

[Person Man]

I doubt 62% of Americans can point the Ukraine on a map. no offense.

I think it is more about Trump being so unpredictable that Putin would not be able to calculate the odds of cost/benefit effectively and as a result just do nothing and wait until Trump is gone.

It was never going to be easy after Trump left by design. The silver lining is if he won in 2020, who picked up the pieces after him would of had it much, much worse.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1497533422146887684

Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki:

Today I spoke again with the Prime Minister of Hungary, V. Orbán. And he once again assured me of his support for far-reaching sanctions against Russia. Including about blocking the SWIFT system.

with Cyprus also supporting, Germany looking increasingly isolated now.

One can argue Germany is playing the role of Joe Manchin on the BBB bill relative to other Dem senators that are skeptical of the BBB bill.  All of them can "support" BBB knowing that Joe Manchin will block the bill.  We will see where this goes.  On the other side of the ledger, Tthere is talk in the USA of the Biden administration now being more in favor of cutting Russia of SWIFT despite concerns from Wall Street.

[jaichind]

I doubt 62% of Americans can point the Ukraine on a map. no offense.

I think it is more about Trump being so unpredictable that Putin would not be able to calculate the odds of cost/benefit effectively and as a result just do nothing and wait until Trump is gone.

It was never going to be easy after Trump left by design. The silver lining is if he won in 2020, who picked up the pieces after him would of had it much, much worse.

I agree it is a credible counterargument that Trump's "American First" policy which I support would have weakened the USA alliance structure in Europe that Putin would at some point strike.

[thumb21]

Countries that have now closed their airpace to Russian commercial flights:



Source: https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1497558535982706694

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1497533422146887684

Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki:

Today I spoke again with the Prime Minister of Hungary, V. Orbán. And he once again assured me of his support for far-reaching sanctions against Russia. Including about blocking the SWIFT system.

with Cyprus also supporting, Germany looking increasingly isolated now.

One can argue Germany is playing the role of Joe Manchin on the BBB bill relative to other Dem senators that are skeptical of the BBB bill.  All of them can "support" BBB knowing that Joe Manchin will block the bill.  We will see where this goes.

Well, one could argue that, but it would be a dumbass argument. BBB would have definitely passed if Manchin/Sinema had gotten on board.

[Mehmentum]

Been thinking about the fact that Russia is holding so much of their army back for no apparent reason.  The only thing that makes sense to me is that logistically they wouldn't be able to handle it.  We've seen reports of their issues in Belarus, and reports of Russian soldiers raiding homes for food and clothing.

[Person Man]

Yes, but that Russia has an awesome military quantity has never been disputed by anybody. The real issue, as even just these past few days have arguably shown, may be quality.

They attacked with prop planes.

[Hnv1]

there's an offensive from the east towards Mariupol.

I think we're starting to see phase 2 of the offensive now with large pincer moves in the east

[jaichind]

The entire debate in the collective West over SWIFT seems farcical to me.  The argument for doing it is that there can be payment workarounds for Russia to get paid for gas exports.  The core issue is the current set of sanctions will hit Russia only in the medium term and will not deter current Russian action. 

For me, the only real question of hitting Russia in the short term would be "Will Russia be able to sell raw materials to the collective West and get paid for it" Yes or No.  For many in the collective West it is Yes and for others, it is no.   The alliance is not able to confront this simple Yes and No question so the debate moves to technicalities that really do not address this core question.

Of course, Russia has its own race against time.  The need to wind this up within weeks if not days or else problems for them which include sanctions and other factors will begin to catch up to them.

[pppolitics]

Russian health ministry documents show how Russia is preparing for casualties


I have been given a copy of document issued today by the Russian Ministry of Health which shows it is anticipating a major medical event in which doctors have to be drafted from across the country.

It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency and has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate and work.

The document from the Russian Ministry of Health is signed by the deputy health minister and dated today - February 25.

https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187

It asks medical organisations to be ready "to be promptly involved in activities aimed at saving lives and preserving the health of people in Russia".

Russian medical institutions have been ordered by the Health Ministry to send a list no later than 6pm to the deputy health minister of "medical specialists and medical workers… indicating their full name, place of work, positions & contact details".

The document makes it clear these medics will be deployed somewhere and will be offered a "reimbursement of travel and accommodation expenses, as well as payment of labour is expected from funds from the Federal Centre of Medical Disasters".

[...]

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-02-25/russian-health-ministry-documents-show-how-russia-is-preparing-for-casualties

[pppolitics]

I wonder how things are going to sound at home now that all these Russian medical doctors are being sent in.

"Hi, mom. I am so tired today. I am treating a soldier with his legs blown off."

[Mehmentum]

Been thinking about the fact that Russia is holding so much of their army back for no apparent reason.  The only thing that makes sense to me is that logistically they wouldn't be able to handle it.  We've seen reports of their issues in Belarus, and reports of Russian soldiers raiding homes for food and clothing.

See also, this:
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497485623225200640

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1497567917294116869

[Person Man]

The entire debate in the collective West over SWIFT seems farcical to me.  The argument for doing it is that there can be payment workarounds for Russia to get paid for gas exports.  The core issue is the current set of sanctions will hit Russia only in the medium term and will not deter current Russian action. 

For me, the only real question of hitting Russia in the short term would be "Will Russia be able to sell raw materials to the collective West and get paid for it" Yes or No.  For many in the collective West it is Yes and for others, it is no.   The alliance is not able to confront this simple Yes and No question so the debate moves to technicalities that really do not address this core question.

Of course, Russia has its own race against time.  The need to wind this up within weeks if not days or else problems for them which include sanctions and other factors will begin to catch up to them.

Even if they do occupy the country, that will only be the beginning.

[It’s so Joever]

Ugh we could have stopped this. I am repulsed with NATO right now.