Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[ꙮ]

Russia is NOT the same threat as Nazi Germany or even the USSR, and people desperate for action need to stop pretending otherwise.

It's true that there is a certain type of bored, NEET westerner who is hoping for action for action's own sake simply in order to bring excitement to their otherwise dreary life.

However, it's unquestionable that Putin's playbook has shifted from his old approach of nibbling around the edges of his neighbors, to outright conquest. It's very likely that his 2 years of COVID isolation either made him insane, obsessed with his place in the history books, or both.

Conquest was status quo for millennia, so people need to stop acting like breaking a relatively recent norm is definitely the end of mankind, or even a major event in the grand scheme of things.

Give me a break. There are a lot of things that were the status quo for millennia that we don't do anymore, that would be ""major events"" if they resumed.

For millennia all over the world slavery was accepted and normal. Legal slavery was only fully stamped out in this past century. It is a recent norm. Per your logic, people shouldn't act like it were a big deal if the United States brought back slavery, and our doing so would not be a "major event".

For millennia in parts of the world, homosexuality was punishable by death. Per your idiotic logic, people would have no right to act like it was a big deal or a major event if the UK reimplemented the death penalty for homosexuality tomorrow.

For millennia there was no such thing as electoral democracy in any recognizable sense. Per your logic, it wouldn't be a big deal or a major event if Joe Biden crowned himself Emperor of the United States tomorrow.

For millennia nobody saw a problem with massacring the inhabitants of captured cities and raping and ransoming the survivors. It was the status quo. I suppose if Russia starts doing that too, you'll be the first one to let us know that it isn't exceptional historically and that it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.

Russia invading Ukraine definitely is a “big deal.” Just no where near as consequential as WW2 or the Cold War, and people need to stop pretending otherwise and blowing things out of proportion.

Cool, not what you said though.

Also nobody is saying that this is as big a deal as WWII. If that was the point you were trying to make, you were arguing against no-one.

Forumlurker et al. are claiming this could be not just the start of WW3, but literally a cataclysmic tier event. WW3 is trending on many social media sites, and people are starting to believe the hype.

Okay, to clarify: Nobody except for obvious trolls or people with actual severe anxiety thinks that this is as big a deal as WW2. WW3 is trending on social media sites because people are making memes, not because it is a realistic outcome of all this.

Also, you've made a hell of a retreat from "This isn't a major event" to "This isn't literally the end of the world".

If past indications are anything to go off of though, attempting to continue this discussion won't go anywhere productive. I'll leave it at this and probably delete my posts for being overly argumentative in the morning.

[Storebought]

I understand you all are trying to keep your morale up posting pro-Ukraine propaganda, but seriously, this is just Day 3 of the operation.

The only way Ukraine will "win" is if Putin orders a retreat. Again, "Black Swan Event" notwithstanding, fat chance of that happening now that he's being egged on by Xi and Hegel's Spirit of History.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

If the Germans had entered the outskirts of London in WW2, even Winston Churchill would have fled to a new capitol.

[SevenEleven]

Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

If the Germans had entered the outskirts of London in WW2, even Winston Churchill would have fled to a new capitol.

What do you mean "even Winston Churchill"? This Zelenskyy guy is built different and he makes me want to fly over to Ukraine and  up some Russian invaders.

[Silent Hunter]

Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

If the Germans had entered the outskirts of London in WW2, even Winston Churchill would have fled to a new capitol.

Churchill said to his Cabinet he was prepared to die fighting.

[Hnv1]

Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

If the Germans had entered the outskirts of London in WW2, even Winston Churchill would have fled to a new capitol.

Churchill said to his Cabinet he was prepared to die fighting.

Pretty sure he had plans to move to Canada with the royals if Germany invaded.

[Logical]

I understand you all are trying to keep your morale up posting pro-Ukraine propaganda, but seriously, this is just Day 3 of the operation.

The only way Ukraine will "win" is if Putin orders a retreat. Again, "Black Swan Event" notwithstanding, fat chance of that happening now that he's being egged on by Xi and Hegel's Spirit of History.

Nobody worth listening to actually thinks that Ukraine can win a conventional war if Russia chooses to unleash its full firepower. They can, however, make it so costly for Putin politically to capture the major cities that he is forced back into the negotiating table with more acceptable terms.

[Dereich]

Russia is NOT the same threat as Nazi Germany or even the USSR, and people desperate for action need to stop pretending otherwise.

It's true that there is a certain type of bored, NEET westerner who is hoping for action for action's own sake simply in order to bring excitement to their otherwise dreary life.

However, it's unquestionable that Putin's playbook has shifted from his old approach of nibbling around the edges of his neighbors, to outright conquest. It's very likely that his 2 years of COVID isolation either made him insane, obsessed with his place in the history books, or both.

Conquest was status quo for millennia, so people need to stop acting like breaking a relatively recent norm is definitely the end of mankind, or even a major event in the grand scheme of things.

It was also the status quo that there would be a great power war every 50 years or so and the peace since WWII is also a unusual break from the norm. I can promise you that we'd be treating a war between two at very least as seriously as we're all treating this.

[Yoda]

Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

If the Germans had entered the outskirts of London in WW2, even Winston Churchill would have fled to a new capitol.

Churchill said to his Cabinet he was prepared to die fighting.

Pretty sure he had plans to move to Canada with the royals if Germany invaded.

Not sure about that. They tried to evacuate the Royal Family at the time (granted, this was before an actual hypothetical invasion as you stipulated just during german bombing of Britain so could be wrong) and the Queen said "the children were staying with her, she was staying with the king and the king wasn't leaving."

[CumbrianLefty]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

Who needs BigSerg on this thread when we've got you

[Logical]

Strategic situation as of the second day. Russians have committed barely half of its available Battalion Tactical Groups. There are reports that they will soon open up another front from Brest to strike at Western Ukraine.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Logical has become our military intelligence officer.

First map I have seen in 122 pages that makes any sense.

[CumbrianLefty]

I understand you all are trying to keep your morale up posting pro-Ukraine propaganda, but seriously, this is just Day 3 of the operation.

The only way Ukraine will "win" is if Putin orders a retreat. Again, "Black Swan Event" notwithstanding, fat chance of that happening now that he's being egged on by Xi and Hegel's Spirit of History.

Why are self-styled "realists" such as yourself making out that "barring some unforeseen miracle, Russia will still win this war" is some sort of deeply profound and TRUTH TELLING statement that most of us aren't already well aware of??

To be honest, I'm becoming convinced that Putin is now so away with the fairies he genuinely thought Ukrainians would welcome his troops as liberators.  

[President Johnson]

Gee, if these numbers are accurate, this doesn't go all too well for Russia. We need to pay our deepest respects to the brave people of Ukraine who fight back barberry with this resistance. As I said, Putin should not only be ashamed of himself for the pain he's inflicting on a peaceful neighbor country, he's also sending young Russian soldiers to death en masse for his Greater Empire fantasies. Truly an appalling person. He can rot in hell.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497472133508714496


And some good news: Apparently nobody was killed in this highrise, that was hit by missals.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497468323633811457

[It’s so Joever]

Okay I do almost want to unmute BigSerg just to see what Russian propaganda is saying.

[Storebought]

I understand you all are trying to keep your morale up posting pro-Ukraine propaganda, but seriously, this is just Day 3 of the operation.

The only way Ukraine will "win" is if Putin orders a retreat. Again, "Black Swan Event" notwithstanding, fat chance of that happening now that he's being egged on by Xi and Hegel's Spirit of History.

Why are self-styled "realists" such as yourself making out that "barring some unforeseen miracle, Russia will still win this war" is some sort of deeply profound and TRUTH TELLING statement that most of us aren't already well aware of??

To be honest, I'm becoming convinced that Putin is now so away with the fairies he genuinely thought Ukrainians would welcome his troops as liberators.  

Because they are as delusional in their own way as Baghdad Bob was during the Iraq War? Iraq lasted (by memory) 25 days before total collapse. We should at least give Russia that long before we all conclude (gloat) Putin's scheme is a miserable failure.

[It’s so Joever]

Zelensky alive and in Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1497450802851373056

This is great but Brooooooooo stop showing yourself in front of easily recognizable buildings!

You're a symbol at this point, you have a duty to stay alive.

I agree with you, but the bolded is, of course, exactly why he's doing it.

^

If Zelensky martyrs himself, after so publicly putting himself in the storm of battle, that will motivate Ukrainians to fight on even harder, I think.

If we are being honest, Zelensky probably intends on dying in combat for that exact reason.
He isn’t stupid, he was 100% told the full risks of this all. He is willingly choosing to die because he knows this will serve as the perfect example for the Ukrainian people on resistance. As a comedian he 100% is aware of the public relations impact this will have, and he’s definitely been broadcasting himself a lot. I think it’s a noble and genius idea.

[It’s so Joever]

Strategic situation as of the second day. Russians have barely committed barely half of its available Battalion Tactical Groups. There are reports that they will soon open up another front from Brest to strike at Western Ukraine.

Unsurprising and saddening because this may well be the end of Ukraine. The Western front is much less defended.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Gee, if these numbers are accurate, this doesn't go all too well for Russia. We need to pay our deepest respects to the brave people of Ukraine who fight back barberry with this resistance. As I said, Putin should not only be ashamed of himself for the pain he's inflicting on a peaceful neighbor country, he's also sending young Russian soldiers to death en masse for his Greater Empire fantasies. Truly an appalling person. He can rot in hell.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497472133508714496

If these numbers are true, Putin will just bring out more military options.

The number of Battalion Groups he has is staggering. The remote weapons he can employ are more devastating than anything unleashed thus far.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but that Russia has an awesome military quantity has never been disputed by anybody. The real issue, as even just these past few days have arguably shown, may be quality.

[President Johnson]

Russian leadership is increasingly insane. German media also reporters that Medvedev talked about reinstating the death penalty in Russia now that they're sanctioned anyway. I have a feeling we're at the beginning of a second Cold War and Ukraine is de facto already a proxy war.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1497524381307838467

[Lord Halifax]

I understand you all are trying to keep your morale up posting pro-Ukraine propaganda, but seriously, this is just Day 3 of the operation.

The only way Ukraine will "win" is if Putin orders a retreat. Again, "Black Swan Event" notwithstanding, fat chance of that happening now that he's being egged on by Xi and Hegel's Spirit of History.

Why are self-styled "realists" such as yourself making out that "barring some unforeseen miracle, Russia will still win this war" is some sort of deeply profound and TRUTH TELLING statement that most of us aren't already well aware of??

To be honest, I'm becoming convinced that Putin is now so away with the fairies he genuinely thought Ukrainians would welcome his troops as liberators.  

Because they are as delusional in their own way as Baghdad Bob was during the Iraq War? Iraq lasted (by memory) 25 days before total collapse. We should at least give Russia that long before we all conclude (gloat) Putin's scheme is a miserable failure.

The invasion of Iraq turned into a miserable failure for the US after the collapse, and that's probably what most of us think will happen in Ukraine.

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497513126924853259?s=20&t=gLUtNwKQIpZ6tv...
Gloves are off. Heading to Khrakov with the MLRS pieces.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497467189779218433
We ought to be airlifting supplies, both civilian and military, into Lviv at a rate to rival Berlin in 1948.

A degree of secrecy about what is being delivered will minimise Russian readiness for the new gear, but it also means the West is less pressured to commit weapons that are actually useful instead of truckloads of rusting Kalashnikovs.

For instance, Ukraine probably can’t be trained to used PATRIOTs before the war ends, but some of its allies have ageing, mobile Soviet/Russian SAMs that are either out of active service or heading for the exits in a few years time. Some of these are still functional and would probably be more useful than MANPADs.

[Storebought]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497513126924853259?s=20&t=gLUtNwKQIpZ6tv...
Gloves are off. Heading to Khrakov with the MLRS pieces.

Ukraine needs to find a way to, ahem, halt, the entry of those heavy pieces before they even reach the border.