Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363

Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is reminding me of a Crusader Kings game where you declare war and expect you can take it easily. And then you don't and hit some setbacks and it becomes clear it'll be very costly to continue the war even if you win (especially as this might reduce your troop counts below that of that faction plotting against you) so you just ask for a white peace.

[SevenEleven]

Russia is repositioning Intercontential Ballistic Missiles near Moscow
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1497306128111353856

Surely they're not going to deploy these ... right?

This is probably why.

https://twitter.com/PenguiAnon/status/1497311994973720580

But, but...I thought Putin was a "genius" and "savvy"...

[Aurelius]

What's the latest credible information on the situation in Kyiv?

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363

Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What's the latest credible information on the situation in Kyiv?

Very little in the way of credible on the ground reporting all around. The best I can piece together is Russian troops are to the north and east and long range range bombardment has started. So far, the Ukrainians managed to fend off Russian assaults on the airfield to the west, preventing a complete encirclement as of yet.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

It might be possible a compromise is put in place where the entire Donbass is reintegrated with Ukraine in return for the country becoming neutral a la Austria in the Cold War? (If Putin has enough of a hand, then add in Crimea being Russian being recognized by the international community, but this would be much more unlikely)

Ukraine would probably fare best if it isn't political football, and all this, taken together, would shore up both Putin and Zelensky, allowing both to claim victory. It would also help NATO as they have to expend less money on redeployments.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363

Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

Crimea is already done deal, crucial for Russian navy.

A realistic solution might be:

Russian Crimea

Autonomous Donbas as part of Ukraine

Constitutional neutrality (Austria Style) with Russian guarantees in return

Ukraine can pursue EU

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

Crimea is already done deal, crucial for Russian navy.

A realistic solution might be:

Russian Crimea

Autonomous Donbas as part of Ukraine

Constitutional neutrality (Austria Style) with Russian guarantees in return

Ukraine can pursue EU

Interesting how we both came up with broadly similar potential compromise plans. Main difference is that yours is more all-encompassing.

[It’s so Joever]

Remember, this is still Putin.

[jaichind]

Crimea is already done deal, crucial for Russian navy.

A realistic solution might be:

Russian Crimea

Autonomous Donbas as part of Ukraine

Constitutional neutrality (Austria Style) with Russian guarantees in return

Ukraine can pursue EU

This sounds reasonable.  I would also add

Russian as a second official language in Ukraine similar to the role of French in Canada (this would address Putin's claim of "Nazis" since the "Nazis" he is talking about are mostly about Ukrainian/Russian language issues)

Ukraine can join the EU but Russia should get an option to have equal economic access to Ukraine as other EU members on a reciprocal basis

Hopefully "Constitutional neutrality (Austria Style) with Russian guarantees in return" address Putin''s demand of demilerization of Ukraine

[Blue3]

Call IT support, the simulation broke again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DonutOperator/status/1497114514713714688

Taliban came to power by opposing Russia, and then came back to power by creating a peace agreement with the US.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

Crimea is already done deal, crucial for Russian navy.

A realistic solution might be:

Russian Crimea

Autonomous Donbas as part of Ukraine

Constitutional neutrality (Austria Style) with Russian guarantees in return

Ukraine can pursue EU

If Russia actually truly just wants security assurances or to dominate its neighborhood like a schoolyard bully, something like this *might* work. And Crimea does actually make more sense with Russia than with Ukraine, so it's not even entirely abhorrent. However, Putin has broken previous treaties with Ukraine, so why should they trust he will hold fast to this one? And furthermore, why should Ukraine agree to give up its dreams of NATO when being a member of that organization would protect it against the exact crap that is happening right now? (I'm not saying NATO should accept Ukraine as a member, just that Ukraine should be allowed to retain its aspirations)

If Putin does want to restore the old Russian Empire, then it will not work. Because in that case, all his talk about blood and soil and how Ukraine is rightful Russian territory isn't just propaganda for domestic consumption, it reflects Putin's actual intentions. Thus it would only delay the next invasion 5 or 10 years. And since the constitutional neutrality would presumably prevent Ukraine from accepting western weapons aid, we couldn't even help them arm up for the next one in the meantime.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

It might be possible a compromise is put in place where the entire Donbass is reintegrated with Ukraine in return for the country becoming neutral a la Austria in the Cold War? (If Putin has enough of a hand, then add in Crimea being Russian being recognized by the international community, but this would be much more unlikely)

Ukraine would probably fare best if it isn't political football, and all this, taken together, would shore up both Putin and Zelensky, allowing both to claim victory. It would also help NATO as they have to expend less money on redeployments.

See the thing is Russia doesn’t want a neutral Ukraine. They could have had that easily without all this.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Call me a cynic, but I don't trust Putin to negotiate a ceasefire in good faith with Zelensky any more than he "negotiated" a commitment not to invade in the first place in good faith with FBM.

[Ferguson97]

If I'm Zelenskyy I do not trust Putin for these "talks".

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1497331262490648577

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1497332333778718720

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If I'm Zelenskyy I do not trust Putin for these "talks".

One can be hopeful, maybe this really is going allot worse than Putin thought and he wants to walk back, but I’m assuming this meeting is Russia demanding terms of surrender.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/angry_staffer/status/1497264676249419778?s=21

Yeah not even trying with the “not attacking civilians” claim that anyone with a brain knew was BS

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1497332333778718720

This does not sound like a leader who's confident in a negotiated peace, as well he shouldn't be.

[urutzizu]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509

Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Hm, well he said open to it if all EU countries agree which is a quite convenient bar to set (which even if Italy changes mind, still leaves many aside Germany opposed like Austria, Hungary Bulgaria, I believe NL too was mentioned by evening news yesterday but not 100% sure). This evening he said also said first the implications have to be studied (which EU commission is currently doing) , especially regarding if Russia will still deliver gas as then it will be very hard for them to get paid. Although he also said that simply asking the question of the consequences does not mean exclusion of the option per se, even if the consequences are bad.

Also the Foreign Minister today (who is actually the most Russia-sceptical minister) said that she is sceptical because it makes it very difficult to finance humanitarian projects, from experience when it was done with Iran. I actually think this is pretty pathetic reasoning, because it seems pretty clear that we are going to have to look again at the full bandwidth of our relationship with Russia, including as already demonstrated culture/sport and humanitarian issues are all touched. If the economic price is too high, then be honest.

German FM doubles down on opposition to SWIFT exclusion In Interview tonight:
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video-993977.html

- "The sharpest sword isn't always the smartest"
- too much Collateral Damage, would hit civil society too much, and for instance ordinary Russians in Germany who need to send payments to relatives
- "as the government we also have a responsibility to ensure that the Germans can heat and have electricity"

It can change, but considering she is so adamant (unlike her always sceptical attitude to NS2, which shone through even when she was forced to defend it), I really can't see it happening right now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

Crimea is already done deal, crucial for Russian navy.

A realistic solution might be:

Russian Crimea

Autonomous Donbas as part of Ukraine

Constitutional neutrality (Austria Style) with Russian guarantees in return

Ukraine can pursue EU

If Russia actually truly just wants security assurances or to dominate its neighborhood like a schoolyard bully, something like this *might* work. And Crimea does actually make more sense with Russia than with Ukraine, so it's not even entirely abhorrent. However, Putin has broken previous treaties with Ukraine, so why should they trust he will hold fast to this one? And furthermore, why should Ukraine agree to give up its dreams of NATO when being a member of that organization would protect it against the exact crap that is happening right now? (I'm not saying NATO should accept Ukraine as a member, just that Ukraine should be allowed to retain its aspirations)

If Putin does want to restore the old Russian Empire, then it will not work. Because in that case, all his talk about blood and soil and how Ukraine is rightful Russian territory isn't just propaganda for domestic consumption, it reflects Putin's actual intentions. Thus it would only delay the next invasion 5 or 10 years. And since the constitutional neutrality would presumably prevent Ukraine from accepting western weapons aid, we couldn't even help them arm up for the next one in the meantime.

Yeah, I'm also a bit sceptical about this. Especially the Russian security guarantees thing. "We promise to never ever to invade you again after staging a couple of false-flag attacks"? Also, Ukraine already had Russian security guarantees in form of the Budapest Memorandum, an agreement that was broken by Russia this week.

Let's hope that this peace treaty doesn't turn out to be Munich 2.0.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1497253373648719876?s=21

Oh yeah here’s this too

[Meclazine for Israel]

Not as much support on Instagram for Ukraine as I was expecting. Two Ukrainian models and the Oslo Tourist board, about 2-3% of my feed:





Maybe the delayed Instagram strategy of "releasing content" has not seen the production of any Ukraine stuff yet.