Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

oh no, we can't have that!  Germans are a soft, weak people who aren't known for their business acumen.  The world must protect the German economy!  If a few tens of thousands of Ukrainians must die, well that's a small price to pay to keep the German economy ticking smoothly.

I think is less about Germans being "weak" versus Ukraine is not a core issue for Germany.  Russia will get hit badly on the medium run by these sanctions yet Russian elites are behind their course of action.  The reason why is because they view Ukraine as part of their core national interests.  Swap out Ukraine for New Zealand and Putin did the same thing he would be soon put in the nuthouse by his followers.

This is why I have always been for the Great Power sphere-of-influences approach for international Great Power competitions.  Here I am 100% aligned with Putin in terms of what the international political model should look like. There should be a concert of Great Powers that make clear to each other what their core interets are and what they are not.  There will still be competition and conflict but the payoff matrix is clear to everyone.

Clearly, I do not approve of what Putin did.  He basically retroactively drew some red lines and claim that NATO and Ukraine crossed them.  It is clear he wanted to do this back in 2014 and was too weak to do so and think he is strong enough today to do it.  He should have at least given an ultimatum with a due day so all parties can negotiate with Russia knowing what is at stake and the consequences.  Putin kept on saying he will not invade and then claim his opponents cross a retroactively constructed red line and attacked.  He is not really obeying his own principles which I do agree with.

I don't know about any of that.  All I know is that if an entity can punish Putin right now, but doesn't because it might hurt their economy, that entity sucks and should be punished by the rest of us.  Perhaps we should start with sanctions.

Is that what Putinists and Nationalists want? It’s amazing on paper but if it worked, the 20th century would have never happened.

[Hnv1]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

[Alcibiades]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

The thing is, it is possible that the Ukrainians starting to prepare earlier may just have meant Putin attacked earlier before they had had the chance to do what you are suggesting. And, at least so far, the Russians are not rolling over them, so things could evidently have been worse.

[Logical]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

You can't really defend the southern parts of Kherson. It's flat, low lying and vulnerable to air-sea bombardment. When you are on the weaker side you have to choose your battlefields wisely.

[Hnv1]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

The thing is, it is possible that the Ukrainians starting to prepare earlier may just have meant Putin attacked earlier before they had had the chance to do what you are suggesting. And, at least so far, the Russians are not rolling over them, so things could evidently have been worse.

They could have at least drafted some reservists earlier without making a fuss. I think they thought that the attack would only be in the east so they bulked up there and hardly gave any thought to the rest of the country.
Look anyone who served in a military knows that permanent bases were supposed to be evacuated to emergency sight weeks ago. But the first strike yesterday took posts in Odessa and the west by surprise? that's gross negligence

[StateBoiler]

From politico.eu live blog:

UKRAINE READY TO NEGOTIATE, MUST RECEIVE SECURITY GUARANTEES: ZELENSKIY AIDE

Ukraine is ready to negotiate with Russia on becoming a neutral state, but it must also receive security guarantees, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday.

“Ukraine has always left and leaves room for negotiations. Including now — even after Russia launched a full-scale invasion. This war must be stopped. These hostilities must be stopped,” Mykhaylo Podolyak said in a statement carried on Ukrainian news agency Unian’s Telegram channel.

The offer to negotiate came amid reports of gunfire in the Obolon district of northern Kyiv, on the west bank of the Dnipro River.

Videos posted on Nexta Ukraine’s Telegram channel showed Russian armored cars on the streets of Obolon.

[jaichind]

There was a call between PRC's Xi and Putin.  It is not clear what took place.  It seems Xi pushed Putin to open talks with Ukraine.  I assume Putin most likely responded "Da, as soon as the special operation is over we will start talks"

[It’s so Joever]

At this point, maybe it would be best for the Ukrainian forces in Donbass to retreat West? I’m not sure but seems like a lot of undefended land between them and the rest of Ukraine which they could be surrounded by. I’m not a military expert, just looks concerning.

[DavidB.]

And another case of "the worst person you know just made a great point".

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497170134095613955?s=20&t=tUbB4EXR7_C...

[It’s so Joever]

And another case of "the worst person you know just made a great point".

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497170134095613955?s=20&t=tUbB4EXR7_C...

100%.
NATO should put troops in the West. It’s not too late. Dare the Russians to fight us.

[Hnv1]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

You can't really defend the southern parts of Kherson. It's flat, low lying and vulnerable to air-sea bombardment. When you are on the weaker side you have to choose your battlefields wisely.

So you ambush the roads and use engineers to funnel the enemy into choke points. I'm not saying they should have met them head-on, but they definitely look ill-prepared part for in the Donbass.

What's actually going on in the Donbass? I thought Mariupol would come under attack already

[jaichind]

Indian sources say that Russia says it expects support from India at the UNSC as the body takes up the matter of Ukraine. Yesterday night Putin spoke to Modi in a call organized by the Russians to explain Russia’s reasoning behind the attack.   Not clear if India will act the way Russia expects.

[Logical]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

You can't really defend the southern parts of Kherson. It's flat, low lying and vulnerable to air-sea bombardment. When you are on the weaker side you have to choose your battlefields wisely.

What's actually going on in the Donbass? I thought Mariupol would come under attack already

Ukrainian units facing the Donbass separatists are experienced, well dug in and at full strength. Russian attacks there have made no significant breakthroughs.

[Hnv1]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

You can't really defend the southern parts of Kherson. It's flat, low lying and vulnerable to air-sea bombardment. When you are on the weaker side you have to choose your battlefields wisely.

What's actually going on in the Donbass? I thought Mariupol would come under attack already

Ukrainian units facing the Donbass separatists are experienced, well dug in and at full strength. Russian attacks there have made no significant breakthroughs.

So what's the Russian game plan here? come from Crimean and Khrakov and take them from behind?

So far today the news from the area was sparse part the Ukrainian strike on the Russian air base

[dead0man]

Indian sources say that Russia says it expects support from India at the UNSC as the body takes up the matter of Ukraine. Yesterday night Putin spoke to Modi in a call organized by the Russians to explain Russia’s reasoning behind the attack.   Not clear if India will act the way Russia expects.

India made it's bed by dealing with the devil for....it's entire existence.  Maybe it will continue walking the tight rope between Russia and the west, but it might have to make a funking choice here and now.

[Logical]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

You can't really defend the southern parts of Kherson. It's flat, low lying and vulnerable to air-sea bombardment. When you are on the weaker side you have to choose your battlefields wisely.

What's actually going on in the Donbass? I thought Mariupol would come under attack already

Ukrainian units facing the Donbass separatists are experienced, well dug in and at full strength. Russian attacks there have made no significant breakthroughs.

So what's the Russian game plan here? come from Crimean and Khrakov and take them from behind?

So far today the news from the area was sparse part the Ukrainian strike on the Russian air base

That seems to be the plan. The main axes of the attack are at Kharkiv and from Crimea instead of Donetsk and Luhansk.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

And another case of "the worst person you know just made a great point".

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497170134095613955?s=20&t=tUbB4EXR7_C...

100%.
NATO should put troops in the West. It’s not too late. Dare the Russians to fight us.

NATO should land a bunch of planes on Ukrainian airfields, and dare Russia to attack them.

Bush sent a US air force plane to the Georgian capitol during the 2008 Russian invasion, and it helped keep Russia out of Tbilisi.

[rc18]

And another case of "the worst person you know just made a great point".

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497170134095613955?s=20&t=tUbB4EXR7_C...

100%.
NATO should put troops in the West. It’s not too late. Dare the Russians to fight us.

NATO should land a bunch of planes on Ukrainian airfields, and dare Russia to attack them.

Bush sent a US air force plane to the Georgian capitol during the 2008 Russian invasion, and it helped keep Russia out of Tbilisi.

No chance in hell of that happening with this lot. Too frightened.

[jaichind]

Russian defense ministry claims that Russian forces now control  Hostomel airport.  They also claim they cut off Kyiv from the West.

[jaichind]

PRC sources say that Putin indicated to PRC's Xi that Russia is ready for talks with Ukraine.  Most likely this is in response to Xi pressure that Russia open such talks.

[jaichind]

Russian defense ministry talking points about ensuring that civilians are not hurt in their attacks reads just like the USA talking points back in 2003 Iraq about the care they are taking to ensure Iraqi civilians are not harmed.  Both are equally farcical.

[StateBoiler]

This is why I have always been for the Great Power sphere-of-influences approach for international Great Power competitions.  Here I am 100% aligned with Putin in terms of what the international political model should look like. There should be a concert of Great Powers that make clear to each other what their core interets are and what they are not.  There will still be competition and conflict but the payoff matrix is clear to everyone.

I would phrase it differently from what you have. It's not that it's Great Power spheres of influences talking with one another, it's that states are just not going to accept certain things in their near abroad. The U.S. does this too. The Monroe Doctrine was in one frame of mind the U.S. desiring to keep all European states that could be powerful rivals out of the hemisphere where the U.S. was the strongest state. Canada post-War of 1812 realized they had to make peace with the U.S. because Britain was an ocean away and British military analysis considered Canada indefensible if they ever got in conflict with the U.S. Mexico effectively lost a power competition with the U.S. in the late antebellum period that resulted in the U.S. gaining Texas, the modern-day Southwest, and California. And post-war the U.S. refused to forgive Texan debts to leave them no option but to come into the country as a state instead of going on independent. Cuba, we at one point were going to invade and overthrow Castro as our foreign policy establishment did not want to accept a Soviet ally so close to American soil. We then had the Cuban Missile Crisis where you want to take a technical understanding of international geopolitics - Cuba was a sovereign state and had every right to station Soviet nukes there - but this was rightfully completely unacceptable to the U.S. and they got them removed. The only reason the state of North Korea still exists is China will not accept a U.S. ally (South Korea) on their border.

The only states in the world that have a completely unacceptable status outside their borders but are forced to live with it are the Israels and South Koreas of the world.

[jaichind]

Georgia, ironically, refuse to join in sanctions against Russia.   Georgia PM Garibashvili says that sanctions would be "irresponsible and harmful".

[StateBoiler]

Russian defense ministry talking points about ensuring that civilians are not hurt in their attacks reads just like the USA talking points back in 2003 Iraq about the care they are taking to ensure Iraqi civilians are not harmed.  Both are equally farcical.

There has been comment I've read of the Russians are nowhere near using their artillery capabilities, which points to wanting to limit damage, i.e. they plan on owning this place once the conflict is over, shouldn't destroy it then.

[jaichind]

Russian defense ministry talking points about ensuring that civilians are not hurt in their attacks reads just like the USA talking points back in 2003 Iraq about the care they are taking to ensure Iraqi civilians are not harmed.  Both are equally farcical.

And, just like in 2003 Iraq, Russia now accuses Ukraine of using civilians as human shields just as the USA made similar accusations against the Iraq government.