Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Cassius]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1496693918804623361

So did the Americans and (I think) the Brits.

[It’s so Joever]

Russia isn't the only one with nukes. I don't understand why people don't realize we have more than they do. If Putin wants to bite off more fallout than he can chew, that is on him.

[Not Me, Us]

Didn't see the news til this morning and have been trying to catch up between classes. I really didn't think it would come to this, but here we are. It seems pretty clear that Putin won't stop, and that this is a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I expect Putin to carve out a bunch of territory for Russia in the Russian-speaking east, and to leave a rump Ukrainian state with a Russian puppet government in the West. This is a tragic day, and I hope it isn't a sign of further bloodshed to come. Russian fascism must be opposed by Europe and the US, Putin has to face consequences.

[LabourJersey]

Russia isn't the only one with nukes. I don't understand why people don't realize we have more than they do. If Putin wants to bite off more fallout than he can chew, that is on him.

You say this like even one nuclear weapon doesn't bring an immeasurable amount of harm

[Not Me, Us]

Russia isn't the only one with nukes. I don't understand why people don't realize we have more than they do. If Putin wants to bite off more fallout than he can chew, that is on him.

This is insane rhetoric, as is any discussion of US boots on the ground. Nuclear war would bring the end of civilization, it shouldn't be taken lightly.

[John Dule]

A potentially stupid question, though I wonder how Putin would react to NATO actually getting involved militarily to assist Ukraine? Would he actually risk a direct confrontation with NATO and the United States, or would he blink? I'm saying we should intervene, I just ask myself how he'd react.

We should find out.

Honestly, do you understand that the real world actually affects your life? Whatever neighborhood you live in is not going to survive a nuclear holocaust, no matter how good the guard at the gate is.

[Middle-aged Europe]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

I know what SWIFT is. Do you know what SWIFT is?

[The Free North]

Part of me is convinced that if this invasion fails Putin is done.

The Russian military, so lauded at home and abroad would have been done in by a vastly inferior, although well armed, force. The stock market has tanked, the ruble is worthless. sure energy prices are up but that's little cost for the international embarrassment. The war is not popular as is.

[Cassius]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

I know what SWIFT is. Do you know what SWIFT is?

I know that cutting Russia off from SWIFT would cause western institutions harm as well as Russian ones, yes. Not something we want to be doing.

[Hnv1]

Part of me is convinced that if this invasion fails Putin is done.

The Russian military, so lauded at home and abroad would have been done in by a vastly inferior, although well armed, force. The stock market has tanked, the ruble is worthless. sure energy prices are up but that's little cost for the international embarrassment. The war is not popular as is.

Fails according to what standards? it's clear there will be territorial gains, but Putin didn't indicate any clear goals here

[MaxQue]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

I know what SWIFT is. Do you know what SWIFT is?

I know that cutting Russia off from SWIFT would cause western institutions harm as well as Russian ones, yes. Not something we want to be doing.

So, you are ready to accept the definitive decline of the West because you're afraid for your stock portfolio. Shame on you.

[The Free North]

Part of me is convinced that if this invasion fails Putin is done.

The Russian military, so lauded at home and abroad would have been done in by a vastly inferior, although well armed, force. The stock market has tanked, the ruble is worthless. sure energy prices are up but that's little cost for the international embarrassment. The war is not popular as is.

Fails according to what standards? it's clear there will be territorial gains, but Putin didn't indicate any clear goals here

The Ukranians fend off the invasion and halt regime change?

[DaleCooper]

Part of me is convinced that if this invasion fails Putin is done.

The Russian military, so lauded at home and abroad would have been done in by a vastly inferior, although well armed, force. The stock market has tanked, the ruble is worthless. sure energy prices are up but that's little cost for the international embarrassment. The war is not popular as is.

This is why I'm so tired of people babbling about sanctions. Obviously that should be part of the conversation, but what needed to happen (and what still needs to happen) is arming the Ukrainian army and public as much as possible to kill as many Russian soldiers as possible. See how much the Russians really worship their false god Vladimir Putin when their boys are dying in droves in a foreign country.  

[GALeftist]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

I know what SWIFT is. Do you know what SWIFT is?

I know that cutting Russia off from SWIFT would cause western institutions harm as well as Russian ones, yes. Not something we want to be doing.

I invite you to consider the hit your portfolio might take if this revanchist, protofascist great power isn't halted.

[Aurelius]

Part of me is convinced that if this invasion fails Putin is done.

The Russian military, so lauded at home and abroad would have been done in by a vastly inferior, although well armed, force. The stock market has tanked, the ruble is worthless. sure energy prices are up but that's little cost for the international embarrassment. The war is not popular as is.

This is why I'm so tired of people babbling about sanctions. Obviously that should be part of the conversation, but what needed to happen (and what still needs to happen) is arming the Ukrainian army and public as much as possible to kill as many Russian soldiers as possible. See how much the Russians really worship their false god Vladimir Putin when their boys are dying in droves in a foreign country.  

Supposedly the Russian forces are bringing mobile incinerators along with them to burn bodies and hide any evidence of casualties.

Of course that won't stop mom and dad back home from knowing something's wrong when young Dmitry never comes back.

[Cassius]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

I know what SWIFT is. Do you know what SWIFT is?

I know that cutting Russia off from SWIFT would cause western institutions harm as well as Russian ones, yes. Not something we want to be doing.

I invite you to consider the hit your portfolio might take if this revanchist, protofascist great power isn't halted.

Nothing to do with my ‘portfolio’. Suspending Russia’s access to SWIFT at short notice will cause chaos in a number of sectors (not least energy) both in Russia and the west. Given that this will not halt the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I believe that we should refrain from doing something with tremendous short term downside and no obvious upside.

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1496831724038377479?cxt=HHwWjsC-_beh6MUp...

Europe starting to man up.

As for SWIFT, since we're talking long-term damage to Russia's economy, I don't have any problem taking a more measured approach to kicking them out to ensure short-term stability for all their stakeholders.  Just saying Russia is banned from SWIFT will have the same effect as actually doing it, even if it takes a few weeks to actually fully implement the ban.

[Omega21]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PeacefulTreason/status/1496884659501748224

No idea who he is, but he does have a point.

No idea why Ukraine didn't do this far earlier.

[pppolitics]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PeacefulTreason/status/1496884659501748224

No idea who he is, but he does have a point.

No idea why Ukraine didn't do this far earlier.

Just to be clear, Ukranians were already allowed to bear arms.

They just weren't allowed to do so in public (in the streets).

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1496884570716835840?s=20&t=OZ9sTi02ZF...

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1496877916797345792

[John Dule]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

[DaleCooper]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

Zelensky has been criminally incompetent. It's hard not to wonder if he's in league with the Russians at this point.

[pppolitics]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

He wants to inflict so much pain on Russia that the Russians decide: Oh, never mind!  I don't really want Ukraine that badly.