Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496720099952242688

[Karpatsky]

The most tragic part of all of this is that the west could have easily prevented this and chose not to. If there's any justice in history Biden will be remembered in the same breath as Chamberlain. We are hoping hard for the best.

These situations are not at all comparable. There’s no analogue to the Munich Agreement, for one.

Minsk

But the point is not that this is exactly Munich 2. The point is that it's another example of Western refusal to deter aggression resulting in awful consequences.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1496718922539847683?s=20&t=qTjlVP1zm...

Here are two livestreams of Odessa and it looks like nothing much is going on, much less a Russian invasion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYoP5VLgetY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWKjaA-wNho

Edit: Actually this channel is just livestreams from Odessa. So in case we hear about supposed events happening there it could be useful: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5HLreFwNngovwzB63lnpzg

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1496719857735413763

[pppolitics]

One thing you have to remember is that Ukranians are fightning for their homeland.

If they go all out guerrilla warfare, there is no way the Russians can win.

Even the US couldn't squash the Taliban because the latter are willing to die for their cause.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1496720581349289991

I've heard it on Ukranian TV, too. Russia is targeting military infrastructure, aeroports and border [facilities?]

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496712735614246916

From what I've read,  in order to take over the whole of Ukraine, Russia would need at least 400,000 troops. That's nowhere near the publicly floated figures of troops near the border. The goal would seem to be less than full invasion and occupation. Taking over the Ukrainian-held areas of Luhansk and Donetsk would likely be the lowest hanging objective and makes sense with the very recent recognition of the LPR and DPR.  

The troops near the border are mostly the regular military, but in the lead up to this, there has been a lot of open source intel indicating that the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) was mobilizing. They are not all sitting right on the border, but can follow on afterwards.

If you look through this twitter feed over the past several weeks, you can see abundant evidence of that https://twitter.com/RALee85

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/MarthaRaddatz/status/1496695197241073666

[TWTown]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1496722024709988354?s=20&t=8dCA5bS5CH37...

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/MarthaRaddatz/status/1496695197241073666

A bit dramatic. There has been a war going on for 7 years already.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1496716707213332481

i despise china

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1496719249691262977

Ukrainian military claims that its air force is repelling Russian attacks.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Just heard Ukraine shot down one SU.

[Aurelius]

I really hope Аndriу is doing okay. I'm very concerned about his safety.

Same. If there's anything we can do to help him, either by sending money or whatever else, I'm happy to contribute. Karpatsky might know about how to get goods or money into Ukraine.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1496723333131517954

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1496721533124943875

Unverified, but some posters were asking for any reports of this earlier.

[Mr. Illini]

CNN reporting that air raid sirens are ringing in Lviv as well, a western stronghold in the country

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1496716707213332481

i despise china

If real or "total" sanctions are adopted, China stands to gain a lot of business since 10% of Russian imports come from the EU or US.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Same report of a Russian plane shot down, from reuters reporter

https://www.twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1496723699705303044

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1496716707213332481

i despise china

If real sanctions are adopted, China stands to gain a lot of business since 10% of Russian imports come from the EU or US.

Russia becomes a vessel state for China.

Great for China, but for Russia.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1496472039108009987

Jesus Christ.

A week ago I would have dismissed this as the usual defense-agency hyperventilation a la Havana Syndrome, but after they were right and I was wrong I have no choice but to believe this.

This is a whole new level of insanity. I very much dislike making Hitler comparisons but this is... bad.

If this actually comes into play, with unimpeachable verified evidence, boots on the ground may be in order.

[Crumpets]

The ruble has lost 10% of its value in the last 24 hours, so there's that.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CNN reporting that air raid sirens are ringing in Lviv as well, a western stronghold in the country

They are hitting whole Ukraine now.

[KaiserDave]

I have been extremely critical of Zelensky, but he has impressed me a great deal in the last 24 hours. Even if I would preferred Tymoshenko or Poroshenko.

We are coming Father Volodymyr!

[Badger]

I have been extremely critical of Zelensky, but he has impressed me a great deal in the last 24 hours. Even if I would preferred Tymoshenko or Poroshenko.

We are coming Father Volodymyr!

Except we're not.