Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496712735614246916

[Gass3268]

Belarus should be equally sanctioned.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1496716836162916353?s=20&t=3QmGfmL1...

[TWTown]

I don't think the Ukrainian Army would stand much of a chance, unfortunately. Not only is it outnumbered but with the current qualify of the two forces, it's also heavily outgunned. The bigger issue for Russia would be stomaching the economic consequences of an invasion.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

US intel has reported that no ground troops have moved into Ukraine yet and is all bombings so any reports of cities falling is disinformation

What is "US intel" in this context? Rubio's tweets imply things are moving pretty fast.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1496716534022127618

[Alben Barkley]

Reminder that Trump defended this.

Reminder that Putin worked to help Trump become president.

Reminder that Republicans literally are polled as preferring Russia over Democrats.

Trump and his supporters are traitors. Every last one of them.

[Dereich]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1496681796137857029

I think US intelligence did a great job on this one. The leaks and putting everyone on alert put Putin in a tough position and made any kind of false flag impossible.

[Omega21]

According to CNN's Defense sources "Russia won't be indiscriminately targeting cities, although their targeting might not be perfect", so at least there shouldn't be too many civilian casualties.

Obviously, though, even a single one is one too many in this case.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Ukraine started/recommended to evacuate people of Luhansk Oblast.

[TWTown]

https://twitter.com/MattMcBradley/status/1496708286036557827?s=20&t=0QWt_Nen...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

US intel has reported that no ground troops have moved into Ukraine yet and is all bombings so any reports of cities falling is disinformation

What is "US intel" in this context? Rubio's tweets imply things are moving pretty fast.

Satellites, presumably?

[Ferguson97]

Belarus should be equally sanctioned.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1496716836162916353?s=20&t=3QmGfmL1...

CNN reporting this as well

[TWTown]

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1496717764807077891?s=20&t=1fWdcwsR...

To the surprise of no one, Belarus has joined in.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

CNN reporting ground attacks coming from Belarus into Ukraine

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1496717764807077891?s=20&t=1fWdcwsR...

To the surprise of no one, Belarus has joined in.

Of cause they are.

Belarus is a puppet state of Russia.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1496718038900436995

[Aurelius]

Anyone who spent the last month lecturing us that the invasion was CIA propaganda and a nothing burger needs to apologize.

At first I genuinely thought this was just Putin trying to gain negotiation leverage. I still think his decision is irrational from all perspectives, but I was flawed in assuming Putin makes all his decisions on rationality, no leader does and my preconceived notions of him as a cunning evil villain clouded my judgement. I apologize for ever saying I don’t think Russia will invade, I can’t believe this is happening.

You don't have to apologize. This is a significant deviation from Putin's old playbook, and many of us were unfortunately making predictions based on that old playbook. The idea we ought to apologize for incorrectly predicting the course of geopolitical events is ridiculous.

Btw, most of us who were wrong here never said it was CIA propaganda or such bs. I was very consistent in (wrongly) thinking that it was bad intel and Putin was bluffing to extract concessions.

Quite simply, this is a level of wanton aggression we have never seen from Putin before. He didn't even bother to manufacture a casus belli before invading! Just called the Ukrainians Nazis and rolled right in.

Which is also why this is so scary. It demonstrates that Russia is no longer content to simply nibble around the edges of its sphere of influence. It is all in on conquest.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496712735614246916

From what I've read,  in order to take over the whole of Ukraine, Russia would need at least 400,000 troops. That's nowhere near the publicly floated figures of troops near the border. The goal would seem to be less than full invasion and occupation. Taking over the Ukrainian-held areas of Luhansk and Donetsk would likely be the lowest hanging objective and makes sense with the very recent recognition of the LPR and DPR.  

[Mr. Illini]

Ground troops coming in at Senkivka, about 146 miles from Kyiv

[TWTown]

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1496718922539847683?s=20&t=qTjlVP1zm...

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/krisjaniskarins/status/1496708315077881866

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/holmescnn/status/1496712564335599626

Is that a MOAB?

Really looks like a massive strike on a fuel depot / chemical warehouse type gig, possibly hitting the Airport (Presumably attempting to take out Jet Fuel Depots) or possibly a military chem storage facility with Diesel Fuel to shut off Ukranian Tanks / APCs, and Mobile Artillery Units from moving towards the current fronts.

The Russian strategic and tactical actions and intentions are not yet discernable, since naturally Russian Modern Armored Units with Mech Infantry / APC support could easily drive straight to the Capital driving through the ruins of Chernobyl, with combined Paratroopers and Helicopter Gunships which could theoretically easily secure Kiev within a few short days.

Still if "Mother Bear" decides to go ahead and follow-up with a full scale occupation and invasion, Guerrilla Warfare in Ukraine will likely cause a much more significant amount of Russian casualties and expense than even their failed attempt doing a Peacekeeping Operation in Afghanistan.

If Putin goes "all in", he might well seal his own fate as yet another failed Russian Imperial leader from the history of Catherine The Great... later on the dayz of Stalin... and now yet another failed leader.

I'll back down a bit on Stalin, since at least he was Ethnic Georgian during the days of the strikes and labor unrest in his factory town back in the '10s, and now Putin has actually served longer as the supreme leader of Russia than even Stalin, and obviously there are significant differences with compare / contrast.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496719652122152961?s=20&t=3QmGfmL1RFxh...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

CNN reporting ground attacks coming from Belarus into Ukraine

That's Yushchenko territory. I don't think the orange areas are going to be very friendly to Russian occupation.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

According to CNN's Defense sources "Russia won't be indiscriminately targeting cities, although their targeting might not be perfect", so at least there shouldn't be too many civilian casualties.

Obviously, though, even a single one is one too many in this case.

They probably won't be intentionally targeting civilians, but most of their munitions are not precision-guided munitions, in particular all the artillery. They have not a huge amount of aerial precision guided bombs and cruise missiles, and they will always save a lot of those in case of any potential future conflict with NATO:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496715091747745796