Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[emailking]

I kept reading that as projectile instead of project and was very confused.

[Alcibiades]

Personally I think it was a huge mistake expanding the EU eastwards. One can wonder whether certain countries were ready for liberal democracy,  because the illiberal turn of Poland and Hungary suggests otherwise. It should have been a more gradual process,  imo. As for expanding the NATO to the Russian borders, it's hard to argue this move is unrelated to the rise of certain forms of Russian nationalism. In other words, western countries can't criticize Putin's nationalism without asking themsrlves in what degree they've contributed to that. Maybe the architecture of security and international relationships could have been different

If the EU, and especially NATO, hadn’t expanded eastwards, Putin would be doing exactly what he is doing right now. The difference is it would be not just to Ukraine, but also to the Baltics and perhaps Poland. This is such a tired talking point, and it’s a damn good thing for the lives and livelihoods of tens of millions of eastern and central Europeans that NATO and the EU did manage to expand eastwards before Russia could pull the kind of sh—t that it’s pulling now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia's effectively correct in recognizing territorial integrity as just another tool to keep it down - highlight when convenient for me, ignore when convenient to thee.

This is basically correct, but not all separatist movements are created equal. The Very Fair Crimean Referendum was conducted without a status quo option and with a bunch of Russian soldiers milling about, so I think it's hardly indicative of the popular will in Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk never even got a referendum of any kind. I don't think even an actor who was genuinely committed to the absolute self-determination of peoples would necessarily be compelled by their own logic to support these regions' joining Russia.

Further, I don't think it's unreasonable to support independence movements in some regions but not in others due to external factors. For example, although I'm generally sympathetic to declarations of independence, I am extremely unsympathetic to the independence of the American South for obvious reasons. It's a different situation, but revanchist sentiments in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea have pretty clearly been drummed up by the Kremlin in service of cynical geopolitical goals. It's possible that the world's interest in preventing Russian imperial expansion might outweigh the interests of Ukrainian Russians wanting to join Russia.

It was Western policies that created the Russia we have today. If we sought to integrate it into our coalition more rigorously when Yeltsin was president, or stopped moving NATO east when Putin was president the first time, or in general just gave the starving bear some room, we'd be in a better position against China now.

You might be right with respect to adding Russia to our sphere – we'll never know now – but I think you're off base with the point against NATO expansion. There's no reason to believe that Russia wouldn't simply be throwing its weight around in the Baltics like it is in Ukraine. If anything, the events of today seem to suggest that the optimal strategy was to rush NATO's borders east as quickly as possible; Russia doesn't seem willing to provoke direct confrontation with NATO. The fact that Russian expansion is limited by NATO is also a benefit to the United States broadly, beyond its being the right thing to do. Under NATO's aegis, the Baltics have grown to about 75% of Ukraine's GDP with like 15% of its population. Friendly nations with large markets like that are exactly what China is working so hard to establish. If we forfeit Eastern Europe to Russia, beyond subjecting millions to unjust despotic rule, we're leaving allies and markets on the table.

To be clear, I don't support a 100% dogmatic territorial integrity no matter what sort of philosophy, because as you said, there are considerations that vary in how they play out from region to region. I myself support Bougainville independence, though I tend to be more skeptical of independence movements generally than most people would.

I'd agree completely with you re: NATO expansion being good for American interests, IF this was just Eastern Europe we're talking about here. In the long run, we've harmed our broader global interests. In retrospect, I think we got too greedy. If in this era when geographical armor makes for less and less, a power based in North America can vassalize (for lack of a better word) most of Eastern Europe, then Russia can enlist the support of a power on the other side of Eurasia for sake of shoring up its position. We live in a globalized world, and in a globalized world where we are all interconnected on some level, then it's easier for these sorts of coalitions to work.

America's now got Russia, China, and Iran in adversarial position, and if we aren't careful, we could also lose Turkey, Burma, and other players. We shouldn't overextend ourselves;  we ought to divide the other spheres and leave them at some level of odds with each other. Half of Eurasia is opposed to us. That's a dangerous position and I worry for our national security. The threat this Eurasian coalition represents is enough to make the extremist groups we fought in the 2000s and 2010s look like a joke, and that's saying something.

It's the job of Ukraine's political class to look after Ukraine and its national welfare. I hope Ukrainian soldiers don't die. At the same time, we have duties to our own people. We can't fight Kiev's wars for it, and in the broader geopolitical stage, Ukraine was, is, and is likely to remain in the Russian shadow. It's not a fight we, America, should spend much political capital on. Yes, it's not a good position to be in, to be obsessed with fighting yesterday's wars. But if you have supreme power and you treat yesterday's wars as present day's wars, then it can implicitly become so. That's exactly what happened with Russia. Since we shouldn't have fought on those grounds to start with, we should abort the fight. Let's remake the playing field in our favor.  Our thinking got us here, our thinking can get us out of it.

[T'Chenka]

Yes (literally sane)

[Continential]

I have found this to be a useful map tracking Russian movements

[Ferguson97]

How has BigSerg managed to vote in the poll 4 times?

I'm guessing two of the others are Big Abraham and Vaccinated Russian Bear.

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1496164151009423362

HOW ABOUT NO?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Ukraine is and has always been the rightful property of Russia.

[Storr]

Russia pulls diplomatic staff out of Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Ministry claims the action was taken due to "threats of physical violence" against staff: https://www.politico.eu/article/live-blog-ukraine-invasion-putin-donetsk-luhansk/#1286632

[Velasco]

Personally I think it was a huge mistake expanding the EU eastwards. One can wonder whether certain countries were ready for liberal democracy,  because the illiberal turn of Poland and Hungary suggests otherwise. It should have been a more gradual process,  imo. As for expanding the NATO to the Russian borders, it's hard to argue this move is unrelated to the rise of certain forms of Russian nationalism. In other words, western countries can't criticize Putin's nationalism without asking themsrlves in what degree they've contributed to that. Maybe the architecture of security and international relationships could have been different

If the EU, and especially NATO, hadn’t expanded eastwards, Putin would be doing exactly what he is doing right now. The difference is it would be not just to Ukraine, but also to the Baltics and perhaps Poland. This is such a tired talking point, and it’s a damn good thing for the lives and livelihoods of tens of millions of eastern and central Europeans that NATO and the EU did manage to expand eastwards before Russia could pull the kind of sh—t that it’s pulling now.

The EU and NATO extensions are previous to Putin's accesion to power, so I don't think that's a valid argument. Actually, you are making counterfactual history on the assumption of the inevitability of Putin and the imperialistic ambitions of post-soviet Russia. When the western countries promised Mikhail Gorbachev the NATO would not expand eastwards from Poland, the USSR was still existing. It is impossible to know how things could have been if done differently, but I refuse to accept the notion that Putin was historically inevitable

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/AndreyZhukovv/status/1496190858655371269

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Internet rumored to be down in eastern Ukraine. If that is true, that would be a first indication that things are getting going in a very bad way.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Russian consulate in Odessa burning documents (also they and all other Russian diplomats in Ukraine have been ordered to evacuate apparently).

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1496193451427340290

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Russian national guard troops apparently for handling future Ukrainian Prisoners of War.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496167823755915269

The 110+ Battalion Tactical Groups are the professional full time soldiers who will be doing the fighting. Those are the 150k or so, whereas the Rosgvardia national guard is the extra manpower that they will need to occupy large amounts of territory after the first wave of combat troops goes through, which will end up being much more if they really want to occupy large amounts of Ukraine.

[Mr. Illini]

President Biden will address the American public momentarily

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwaD5LaRt6Y

[BigSerg]

No.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/AndreyZhukovv/status/1496190858655371269

According to livemap.com, Ukraine is reporting that water service has been cut to Popansa due to "shelling of water supply station near Zolote-3 village". Zolote-3 appears to be about 2 miles North of Pervomaisk. Popansa is about 5 miles West of Pervomaisk (which is nearly all held by separatists except for some outskirts), so it seems probable these reports are the same event.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/22-february-water-supply-cut-to-popasna-town-as-result-of

[President Johnson]

Putin has apparently recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk in its original borders within Ukraine. However, separatists only control about a third of that territory. So Zelensky will probably be left with two bad options: Either resist with force and open the door or for a larger military confrontation and heavy casualties, or he pretty much surrenders these oblasts (regions) and looks weak.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1496206156242563076?s=20&t=j-d0uy...

[brucejoel99]

Ukraine is and has always been the rightful property of Russia.

On what basis? By that logic, most of Europe is the rightful property of Italy, half of the world - including Russia & Eastern Europe themselves - is the rightful property of Mongolia, & the U.S. is the rightful property of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth. Once a place you own has broken off into its own thing, there's no "1 free undo" card that you get to invoke 30 years later.

[jaichind]

Equity markets and RUB surged after Biden's speech.  I guess the sanctions were less than what was feared by the markets.

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

No.

Lmao ofc

As I've asked you before, why do you hate Ukraine so much? Did a Ukrainian girl reject you or something?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Equity markets and RUB surged after Biden's speech.  I guess the sanctions were less than what was feared by the markets.

I'm putting you on ignore until you shut up about currency speculators' hot takes and go back to posting about what's actually happening in the real world.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496143838402035712

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496143838402035712

Good! This and the responses by both the US and EU are much more severe than they were in 2014. Especially how fast both sides have reacted. You just can be glad Biden is the president now, as it would not have been possible with the clown the preceded him.

What's also striking is that China has not voiced the usual support for Russia this time around. At the Munich Security Conference, the Chinese foreign minister even said something like an invasion was a violation of international rule (of course, the Chinese regime has an interest not to set any kind of precedent for separatist movements in Western parts of China).