Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Blue3]

Putin: Ukraine should not exist because it was created by communists, it belongs to the Russian Empire

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1495834628887879683?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1495832718856400906?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495835976702251008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1495832401305612297?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1495836605071904771?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...








So, should Ukraine exist?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Silly last couple of pages. If you think this is just about Donbas or ends there then you're not paying attention. Not even to what Putin said a few hours ago.

Where will it end then?

Imo, Putin can afford anything, including just wait and see. If Ze doesn't answer, he's toast politically (though, what difference Poroh will make?), if he does, he's toast quite literally. Regardless, Ukraine enters now a situation that potentially can become quite destabilizing both politically and/or economically.

Regime change, most likely.

Recognition of the separatist republics without further invasion is a win for Zelensky and Ukraine. If Putin waits and sees then Russia's force posture dissipates and he ends up with nothing.

Silly last couple of pages. If you think this is just about Donbas or ends there then you're not paying attention. Not even to what Putin said a few hours ago.

Well, the fact remains that there are now Russian troops heading across the border between Russia and the separatist regions and no other parts of the Ukraine-Russia border. So, for now, that is the focus of the conflict. Whether this is the main thrust of whatever Russia is planning or just a feint remains to be seen. But by framing this as a "peace-keeping operation" to protect the separatist republics, the farther Russian troops get from those republics, the less justification Putin has for Russians dying on their behalf. And even if Putin rants and raves about Ukraine being a puppet government or abandoning Russia as its true savior or whatever else he comes up with, a full invasion and occupation is a lot harder sell to the Russian people than a lower-risk campaign continuing to support the separatist groups Russia has already been supporting for eight years, but now with more troops. And I still don't think Putin wants to risk the level of domestic discontent that would go along with mass casualties in the Russian military and an open-ended occupation of all of Ukraine. That is, unless he's truly lost it, which let's face it, he might have.

You haven't paid attention to the last several months of troop movements and military exercises, Russia's public diplomacy and Putin's personal statements including tonight, then.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1495896613386133512

Sounds to me like US intel is expecting an all out invasion today/tonight, and that not even Lviv will be safe from that. Or at the very least, they are treating that possibility as credible enough to entirely evacuate all the American diplomats that they previously evacuated to Lviv. I bet that is what those US planes and helicopters that were spotted near the Poland-Ukraine border were doing.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Silly last couple of pages. If you think this is just about Donbas or ends there then you're not paying attention. Not even to what Putin said a few hours ago.

Where will it end then?

Imo, Putin can afford anything, including just wait and see. If Ze doesn't answer, he's toast politically (though, what difference Poroh will make?), if he does, he's toast quite literally. Regardless, Ukraine enters now a situation that potentially can become quite destabilizing both politically and/or economically.

Regime change, most likely.

Recognition of the separatist republics without further invasion is a win for Zelensky and Ukraine. If Putin waits and sees then Russia's force posture dissipates and he ends up with nothing.

Can you be more clear? Regime change to what? Pro-Russian puppet? By what means then? Invasion?

[compucomp]

We've found it, Biden's definition of a "minor incursion" that doesn't trigger sanctions.

https://twitter.com/DavidLawler10/status/1495891830239645697

[NOVA Green]

https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fevanhill%2Fstatus%2F1495873540578594818&widget=Tweet

I've been sympathetic-ish to the "the US isn't necessarily that much better in the grand scheme of things" position in the past, NOVA Green, but now--as in both today and the current geopolitical lay of the land in general--is really not the time any more.

Wasn't what I was posting.... had an issue with embedding a tweet from one of NYT guys who does the satellite analysis and geolocation type stuff.   

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Shot: https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1495900788031377409


Chaser:

https://twitter.com/OKnox/status/1495893943896182792
https://twitter.com/AliRogin/status/1495892855705022464

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Silly last couple of pages. If you think this is just about Donbas or ends there then you're not paying attention. Not even to what Putin said a few hours ago.

Where will it end then?

Imo, Putin can afford anything, including just wait and see. If Ze doesn't answer, he's toast politically (though, what difference Poroh will make?), if he does, he's toast quite literally. Regardless, Ukraine enters now a situation that potentially can become quite destabilizing both politically and/or economically.

Regime change, most likely.

Recognition of the separatist republics without further invasion is a win for Zelensky and Ukraine. If Putin waits and sees then Russia's force posture dissipates and he ends up with nothing.

Can you be more clear? Regime change to what? Pro-Russian puppet? By what means then? Invasion?

What I've been saying all along: destruction of the Ukrainian military, encirclement of Kyiv and deposing the government and installing a new pro-Russian one, probably one that like Lukashenko joins Russia and Belarus as a Union state. It's the obvious logic of both Russia's military buildup and Putin's rhetoric. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills having to point this out to people.

[TheReckoning]

We need to unmute Bigserg in order to get his opinions on all this.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

But by framing this as a "peace-keeping operation" to protect the separatist republics, the farther Russian troops get from those republics, the less justification Putin has for Russians dying on their behalf.

If you watched Putin's speech, he made it pretty clear that all this was about much more than peacekeeping and Donetsk and Luhansk.

He also said much of the same things nearly a year ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_Ukrainians


For anyone that wants to understand the background and has not already done so, I would recommend watching Putin's speech from earlier and/or reading his essay from last year.

Ultimately this will be Putin's justification, the peacekeeping etc is just a small peace of the puzzle, one little step in his plan.


It would be a lot better if you are correct, however, so hopefully you are!

Just to be clear, I have no doubt at all Putin wants full Russian control over Ukraine, Belarus, and as much of the former USSR/Russian imperial sphere of influence as he can dream of. I just don't think he's fooling himself into thinking he can achieve full Russian domination of Ukraine under the current circumstances, at least not without a heck of a lot of risk to his personal position that I don't think he's willing to put up. If he gets eastern Ukraine, his popularity remains high, and Russia's military remains strong and motivated, I have no doubt he'll move on to trying to subsume somewhere else, either in Ukraine or elsewhere, just as a subsequent campaign and not a concurrent one.

Mostly agree, but I'm not even sure about it>

If he gets eastern Ukraine, his popularity remains high

A lot of people here/in western press totally misjudge the unpopularity of Donbas war and today's "annexation". Crimea was extremely popular, both among Russians and Crimeans. Donbas never was.

I'm not saying, Putin's #'s will tank, but in longer run it certainly hurt him, even though, perhaps, only by a little. Both War, surroundings actions AND sanctions are unpopular.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495886501535793155

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

We've found it, Biden's definition of a "minor incursion" that doesn't trigger sanctions.

https://twitter.com/DavidLawler10/status/1495891830239645697

I think the main possibility whereby we avoid all-out war is if Biden and Putin secretly made some sort of a deal that Putin would do this (but not go any further), as some sort of way for Putin to be able to climb down while saving some face.

I think this would be a surprising thing for Biden to agree to though, unless there is something more to come that makes it not be a free win for Putin and an effective abandonment of Ukraine.

I think the logic that Putin is going for an all out invasion fits the available evidence better though at this point.

For that to change something major new will need to come about soon, some sort of way in which recognition of DNR/LNR and Russian troops moving in there would not be so threatening to Ukraine. Which is hard to imagine at the moment.

[It’s so Joever]

Lol Biden is toast now.
What a disaster.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I'll admit, looks like I was wrong about this being a nothingburger.

Tragic to see that NATO and the West have forced this to happen. I think we're looking at a very important 24-48 hours ahead of us.

[Cassius]

But by framing this as a "peace-keeping operation" to protect the separatist republics, the farther Russian troops get from those republics, the less justification Putin has for Russians dying on their behalf.

If you watched Putin's speech, he made it pretty clear that all this was about much more than peacekeeping and Donetsk and Luhansk.

He also said much of the same things nearly a year ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_Ukrainians


For anyone that wants to understand the background and has not already done so, I would recommend watching Putin's speech from earlier and/or reading his essay from last year.

Ultimately this will be Putin's justification, the peacekeeping etc is just a small peace of the puzzle, one little step in his plan.


It would be a lot better if you are correct, however, so hopefully you are!

Just to be clear, I have no doubt at all Putin wants full Russian control over Ukraine, Belarus, and as much of the former USSR/Russian imperial sphere of influence as he can dream of. I just don't think he's fooling himself into thinking he can achieve full Russian domination of Ukraine under the current circumstances, at least not without a heck of a lot of risk to his personal position that I don't think he's willing to put up. If he gets eastern Ukraine, his popularity remains high, and Russia's military remains strong and motivated, I have no doubt he'll move on to trying to subsume somewhere else, either in Ukraine or elsewhere, just as a subsequent campaign and not a concurrent one.

Mostly agree, but I'm not even sure about it>

If he gets eastern Ukraine, his popularity remains high

A lot of people here/in western press totally misjudge the unpopularity of Donbas war and today's "annexation". Crimea was extremely popular, both among Russians and Crimeans. Donbas never was.

I'm not saying, Putin's #'s will tank, but in longer run it certainly hurt him, even though, perhaps, only by a little. Both War, surroundings actions AND sanctions are unpopular.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495886501535793155

This, of course, is the reason why the ‘Putin is weak, he’s doing this to gin up domestic popularity’ thesis is nonsense on stilts.

[It’s so Joever]

I'll admit, looks like I was wrong about this being a nothingburger.

Tragic to see that NATO and the West have forced this to happen. I think we're looking at a very important 24-48 hours ahead of us.

My friend, the stuff I want to say to you right now would get me banned.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1495896613386133512

Sounds to me like US intel is expecting an all out invasion today/tonight, and that not even Lviv will be safe from that. Or at the very least, they are treating that possibility as credible enough to entirely evacuate all the American diplomats that they previously evacuated to Lviv. I bet that is what those US planes and helicopters that were spotted near the Poland-Ukraine border were doing.

Why is the USA doing this?  Even in an all-out Russian invasion leading to the capture of Kyiv, a Russian assault on the USA embassy is tantamount to a declaration of war.  When the Taliban took over Kabul the USA embassy was not attacked.  If the USA wants to move its embassy to Lviv if Kyiv is captured by the Russians and the Ukrainian government relocates to Lviv that would make sense.  And then if the Russians capture Lviv and the Ukrainian government moves to become a government in exile it makes sense for the USA to move with it.  But it does not make sense to move the USA embassy to Lviv now let alone outside Ukraine.

[Vosem]

Having listened to Putin's speech, he is very clearly going to go beyond just the DNR and LNR. The three specific locations mentioned were Odessa (especially: there were violent clashes between pro- and anti-Russian demonstrators there in 2014 where ~30-40 pro-Russian demonstrators died, and the one specific promise made was "to bring the perpetrators to justice"), Poltava (where a monument to Alexander Suvorov was removed), and Ochakov (where Russian soldiers fought a decisive battle in 1788).

Hard to imagine this doesn't go at least to Odessa, which, uh, is not close to the Donbass.

Multiple references were made to the "Novorossiya" concept, which covers most of the southern/eastern half of contemporary Ukraine. Poltava is actually (barely) outside its borders as they were defined by the DNR and LNR in 2014, though.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1495896613386133512

Sounds to me like US intel is expecting an all out invasion today/tonight, and that not even Lviv will be safe from that. Or at the very least, they are treating that possibility as credible enough to entirely evacuate all the American diplomats that they previously evacuated to Lviv. I bet that is what those US planes and helicopters that were spotted near the Poland-Ukraine border were doing.

Why is the USA doing this?  Even in an all-out Russian invasion leading to the capture of Kyiv, a Russian assault on the USA embassy is tantamount to a declaration of war.  When the Taliban took over Kabul the USA embassy was not attacked.  If the USA wants to move its embassy to Lviv if Kyiv is captured by the Russians and the Ukrainian government relocates to Lviv that would make sense.  And then if the Russians capture Lviv and the Ukrainian government moves to become a government in exile it makes sense for the USA to move with it.  But it does not make sense to move the USA embassy to Lviv now let alone outside Ukraine.

Presumably in the case of bombing/and/or other accidents caused by artillery/armour.

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

We need to unmute Bigserg in order to get his opinions on all this.

[Orwell]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1495896613386133512

Sounds to me like US intel is expecting an all out invasion today/tonight, and that not even Lviv will be safe from that. Or at the very least, they are treating that possibility as credible enough to entirely evacuate all the American diplomats that they previously evacuated to Lviv. I bet that is what those US planes and helicopters that were spotted near the Poland-Ukraine border were doing.

Why is the USA doing this?  Even in an all-out Russian invasion leading to the capture of Kyiv, a Russian assault on the USA embassy is tantamount to a declaration of war.  When the Taliban took over Kabul the USA embassy was not attacked.  If the USA wants to move its embassy to Lviv if Kyiv is captured by the Russians and the Ukrainian government relocates to Lviv that would make sense.  And then if the Russians capture Lviv and the Ukrainian government moves to become a government in exile it makes sense for the USA to move with it.  But it does not make sense to move the USA embassy to Lviv now let alone outside Ukraine.

Bombs sometimes miss their targets and if they hit the US Embassy it would be "Why didn't Biden move our ambassador out and got them killed." Think of Benghazi times a million.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why is the USA doing this?  Even in an all-out Russian invasion leading to the capture of Kyiv, a Russian assault on the USA embassy is tantamount to a declaration of war.  When the Taliban took over Kabul the USA embassy was not attacked.  If the USA wants to move its embassy to Lviv if Kyiv is captured by the Russians and the Ukrainian government relocates to Lviv that would make sense.  And then if the Russians capture Lviv and the Ukrainian government moves to become a government in exile it makes sense for the USA to move with it.  But it does not make sense to move the USA embassy to Lviv now let alone outside Ukraine.

Do you really not understand that it is dangerous for US diplomas to be in a warzone, and that they can be in real danger even if they are not deliberately targeted???!!!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hard to imagine this doesn't go at least to Odessa, which, uh, is not close to the Donbass.

Odessa is very close to Romania, so that pretty much would bring him up to the NATO border.

[Storr]

I suppose the next question is: will Russia annex LPR and DPR like was done with extremely short lived independent Republic of Crimea? I'd guess no (edit: at least at this time, if there's an invasion of any Ukrainian held territory, then then my guess becomes yes) since Crimea was (and still is) extremely critical for Russia strategically with Sevastopol being the headquarters for the Black Sea Fleet.

Meanwhile, Luhansk and Donetsk are both less Russian speaking and Russian culturally/ethically identified than Crimea. (In the 2001 Ukrainian Census, which up to the present has been the one and only census held in independent Ukraine, 77% of Crimeans reported speaking Russian, while in Donetsk and Luhansk it was 74.9% and 68.8%, respectively. When it came to ethnic identity, 58% of Crimeans identified as Russian, while in Donetsk and Luhansk it was 38.2% and 39%, respectively). Finally, if Putin was to annex either the territory currently under separatist control or the whole of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, he loses his leverage over Ukrainian politics which is the dangling carrot of separatist area reintegration into Ukraine.

Edit: It also came to my mind that the "little green men" in Crimea were never declared "peacekeepers" by the Russian government, while in Putin's prerecorded speech it was specified the Russian forces going into the DPR and LPR were "peacekeepers".

[Zinneke]

He'll keep them as independent states so he can sell the invasion to the oligarchs/mafiosos as a way to launder their money, Transnistria style.

[Splash]

For what it's worth, I put relatively little stock into the short-and-medium term prognostications of the self-appointed foreign policy pundit class that have been so obviously wrong in predicting the end game of all of this. It is not clear at all that Putin simply stops at a quasi-occupation of the Donbass. Until/unless we start seeing the Russians re-consolidate some of their mechanized units, helicopters, and missile batteries that are presently hiding out in the forests and fields in the Belgorod Oblast and Belarus, I would be wary. That doesn't necessarily mean them returning to their permanent bases, but at least back to their forward operating 'bases' where some of them have been stationed for the better part of the past two months.