Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Omega21]

BigSerg has the same sources as Biden it seems:

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1494318081962872833

How can we be sure BigSerg is not Vladimir himself?

[Torie]

He said, he said. Assuming that Russia is lying like a rug that they are packing their bags and leaving the hood, why are they bothering to lie? What is that supposed to accomplish?

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/17/world/russia-ukraine-news


Has anyone read about any ongoing negotiations lately?

[Sir Mohamed]

I have a feeling one of Putin's main objectives is to use this as bargaining chip to legitimize Crimea annexion and essentially get Donbass regions recognized as independent or part of Russia?

[jaichind]

I have a feeling one of Putin's main objectives is to use this as bargaining chip to legitimize Crimea annexion and essentially get Donbass regions recognized as independent or part of Russia?

I agree that these are going to be things Putin will want to get out of this.  A Russia-Ukraine compromise to me would be something like

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue
b) Ukraine carries out Minsk II which gives autonomy to the Donetsk republics
c) water rights for Crimeria - Ukraine has cut off water to Crimea since 2014 and Russia has to move in the water there at great expense
d) Ukraine formally giving up joining NATO

I suspect it is d) that is the main sticking point now.

[Sir Mohamed]

Sure.jan, Biden Admin will just do this because Mr. Putin wants so.

https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1494317602646245377

[StateBoiler]

Why are we supposed to believe that BigSerg would have “sources” (other than maybe Russian-sponsored news outlets)?

It's a fair question for most of the people on this board.

[Virginiá]

My gosh, it is very good then that the peaceful Russian army camped out en masse on Ukraine's borders is there to defend the poor downtrodden Russians within Ukraine's authoritarian grip. I mean, who could have predicted such atrocities!

[PSOL]

I see this is the new Trump Inauguration phenomenon of the dates constantly moving

[BigSerg]

BigSerg has the same sources as Biden it seems:

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1494318081962872833

My sources tell me of widespread evacuations in the villages near the front lines.

[Crumpets]

US is accusing Russia directly (not just Russian-backed separatists) of shelling Ukrainian government-controlled territory and hitting a kindergarten. I don't know if this is the same shelling that was reported earlier or if this is something else. One thing I will hand the US on this one is that we've been pretty good at getting out statements early and not letting Russia set the narrative on its own. That's an improvement from the Obama, and certainly the Trump years.

https://twitter.com/USEmbassyKyiv/status/1494346636587409410

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1494104754137542659

Very British thing to do.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1494104754137542659

Very British thing to do.

Code name of source: Debussy

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I see this is the new Trump Inauguration phenomenon of the dates constantly moving

I've heard that Russia will invade on the day Trump is reinstated the night from 30th to 31st February.

[Crumpets]

It's funny because, while exaggerated reports of Ukrainian shelling are totally in the Kremlin playbook, "The war will start on X day very soon" is totally out of the American playbook. The Kremlin wants to be able to pick and choose when they would start an offensive. By naming February 16th, and then 17th, and then some day in 4 or 5 days, it makes it look like the Kremlin was initially planning to launch the invasion yesterday but is now getting cold feet and trying to re-evaluate thanks to US pressure. So... I'm not saying Sergei's sources are definitely CIA, but he might want to be careful about pushing a CIA-driven narrative.

[StateBoiler]

Which tonight? Tonight U.S. time or tonight somewhere else's time?

[StateBoiler]

I have a feeling one of Putin's main objectives is to use this as bargaining chip to legitimize Crimea annexion and essentially get Donbass regions recognized as independent or part of Russia?

If he got those, so what? Crimea is already Russian, what does Putin care if the government of Belgium recognizes that fact? Ditto Donbass, they're already by fact independent and even Ukrainian officials have admitted anonymously in a Guardian piece "people from Donbass will never be allowed to sit in government in Kiev sabotaging us from the inside".

Putin did not do this to legitimize actions that were already done. I doubt he gives a sh*t. He is doing this to change the status quo. Those two items already exist in the status quo. I can see the West perhaps offering that although it's a rhetorical climb down, because it'd allow them to give up something on paper while giving up nothing in reality.

[President Johnson]

Sure.jan, Biden Admin will just do this because Mr. Putin wants so.

https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1494317602646245377

Putin can't be so stupid and think NATO would agree to this ridiculous demand. He's probably bluffing in an attempt to "secure" his remaining sphere of influence, as he still thinks in these terms even 30 years after the Cold War ended.

Anyway, this is a blatant impudence. Putin is not dictating Poland, the Baltics or Germany if and now many US troops are staying here. Western governments should send him an unmistakable answer that we're not taking any such demands from him. Maybe it's time to actually impose even tougher sanctions.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Which tonight? Tonight U.S. time or tonight somewhere else's time?

Moon Time.

[President Johnson]

Which tonight? Tonight U.S. time or tonight somewhere else's time?

February 30, to be exact

[Torie]

I have a feeling one of Putin's main objectives is to use this as bargaining chip to legitimize Crimea annexion and essentially get Donbass regions recognized as independent or part of Russia?

I agree that these are going to be things Putin will want to get out of this.  A Russia-Ukraine compromise to me would be something like

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue
b) Ukraine carries out Minsk II which gives autonomy to the Donetsk republics
c) water rights for Crimeria - Ukraine has cut off water to Crimea since 2014 and Russia has to move in the water there at great expense
d) Ukraine formally giving up joining NATO

I suspect it is d) that is the main sticking point now.

Your list does not seem to include Russia giving up anything other than not invading for the moment. I don't think that dog will hunt or should hunt. It has eerie echoes of the forced relinquishment of the Sudetenland.

In one sense Russia has already lost, because unless the West is into the suicide mode, it cannot allow itself to be economically entangled with Russia to the point that it can be coerced to bend over. It's time for something akin to an economic divorce at least up to the point that when Russia is a bad boy, it can be cut off without undue economic pain.

It is also a warning shot about China, which will soon be a co super power with the US. That is a very sobering thought since it has the economic power, or soon will, to do just about anything it wants. 1951 was a good year to be born as an American. It really was. Good luck to you all.

[Person Man]

I hate to say it, but if this is true, I’m kind of hoping it’s something so heinous that completely forces the West’s hand on direct intervention.

[Torie]

Sure.jan, Biden Admin will just do this because Mr. Putin wants so.

https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1494317602646245377

Why stop at Europe? And when will Putin demand Alaska back? This circus act would be funny if it were not so tragic.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/aspeciale/status/1494369723634667526

Praying for Super Mario.

[Orwell]

Sure.jan, Biden Admin will just do this because Mr. Putin wants so.

https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1494317602646245377

Why stop at Europe? And when will Putin demand Alaska back? This circus act would be funny if it were not so tragic.

Torie how did you feel about Sewards folly back in the day?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I demand the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Europe.