Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Virginiá]

Title. Thread to discuss Russia-Ukraine and Poland-Belarus tensions.

Timeline

November 1: Russia's power supply to Ukraine was stopped
Source: https://112.international/politics/electricity-supplies-from-russia-and-belarus-to-ukraine-stop-from-november-1-66325.html

November 3-4: New reforms are introduced to the Union State of Russia and Belarus
Source: https://tass.com/world/1357961

November 1-6: Ukraine starts using Bayraktar TB2 UAVs in battle
Source: https://uacrisis.org/en/buildup-of-russian-troops-near-ukraine-bayraktar-drone-in-donbas-vaccine-mandates-and-more-weekly-update-on-ukraine-37-25-31-october-2021

November7 1-7: Russia begins mass deployment of its army to the Ukrainian border
Source: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-now-says-90-000-152816867.html

November 5-7: Poland says Belarus staged armed intrusion at border and thousands of migrants smuggled into Poland with the help of the Belarusian army.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-says-belarus-staged-armed-intrusion-border-summons-envoy-2021-11-03/

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1457707949971984389?t=qOzq9FhZfVbcEoFQX4TwM...

[BigSerg]

Satellite images taken by Maxar Technologies last week demonstrate the kind of irregular Russian troop and equipment movements that US officials are worried about. The images show Russian troops, tanks and artillery massing near the Russian town of Yelnya, and the Biden administration is more concerned than it was in the spring that Russia could launch an invasion, two senior US officials said.

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1457718498197708800?t=UScFcQCtk-FACekwymC-...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1457750657734258690?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1457750657734258690?s=20

Polish Territorial Defense Forces likely on the move to the Belarusian border tonight after called into service earlier today

https://twitter.com/terytorialsi/status/1457768038497980422?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1457796988301295617?s=20

[Zinneke]

Putin is using the border crisis as a pretext to deploy troops on the Belarussian border.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbh an account called "EndGameWW3" strongly suggests crankery simply in its title.

[BigSerg]

Tbh an account called "EndGameWW3" strongly suggests crankery simply in its title.

He just tweets the news, the sources are reliable
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1458106391500103682?s=20

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1458112316973752325?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1458113988168912902?s=20

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1458115000854265858?s=20

[Woody]

Good job Biden, you idiot.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Good job Biden, you idiot.

what

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1458166250991878145?s=20

[PSOL]

Nothing is going to happen just as nothing happened before, if Russia wants to quickly act it would be the one to strike first.

[Zinneke]

Nothing is going to happen just as nothing happened before, if Russia wants to quickly act it would be the one to strike first.

I wouldn't call this nothing, I think instead its indicative of how warfare is being played out in a setting where mutually assured destruction has been digested as a concept and the opportunity cost of conventional warfare is being weighed up. What we're seeing here is classic limited warfare or salami slice warfare in a bid to destabilize opponents. The invasion of Crimea for example wasn't nothing. This is a pariah state that is blackmailing Europe because we took the insane decision to gamble too much on natural gas to even power our electrical grids fully rather than go with nuclear. As someone who voted Green (mostly because they are usually the only ones I could trust) this is exactly the kind of situation that exposes how naive most Green politicians are when it comes to big geopolitics.

[Woody]

Good job Biden, you idiot.

what

Putin never did anything like this when Trump was president. They both had respect for each other.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good job Biden, you idiot.

what

Putin never did anything like this when Trump was president. They both had respect for each other.

He just made the POTUS embarrassing himself in front of the entire world by siding with an authoritarian leader over his own Intel Service. Nice try.

[CumbrianLefty]

Good job Biden, you idiot.

what

Putin never did anything like this when Trump was president. They both had respect for each other.

You actually believe this don't you, god bless

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Good job Biden, you idiot.

what

Putin never did anything like this when Trump was president. They both had respect for each other.

He just made the POTUS embarrassing himself in front of the entire world by siding with an authoritarian leader over his own Intel Service. Nice try.

LMAO, Who cares _{(aside from TDS)}? Not Putin. He's pragmatic.

Nord Stream 2 is kinda like BIF/BBB (?) for Biden. Putin got nothing from Trump. Biden folded fairly fast.



Re: Poland-Belarus
An interesting consequence is that Poland probably gets a break from pissing off EU. It will be much harder to punish Poland, when Poland are holding back a tons of desperate poor brown people wanting to search asyl in rich EU.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1458500070035316741?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1458518423454031875?s=20

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1458519473091137536?s=20

[BigSerg]

It really feels different to last time. They sound concerned, i mean for real concerned. During the exercises they were downplaying the situation telling everyone "we just see exercises, no worry"
https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1458529651341594627?s=20

[President Johnson]

I hope the sanctions EU is preparing are really crippling on Minsk, as this is state-sponsored crime. I think Merkel is a naive for calling on Putin to negotiate a solution here. The only language Lukashenko understands is strength and determination.

[PSOL]

Continued theatrics that aren’t even entertaining. Wow, what tension.

[Omega21]

I hope the sanctions EU is preparing are really crippling on Minsk, as this is state-sponsored crime. I think Merkel is a naive for calling on Putin to negotiate a solution here. The only language Lukashenko understands is strength and determination.

Well good for him, because that's precisely what the EU lacks lol

We've let Turkey's strongman infringe on an EU member's waters, flood them with migrants as a way to extort money, and even publicly humiliate the leader of the EU herself. Which one of those is supposed to scare Lukashenko or Putin?

Putin never did anything like this when Trump was president. They both had respect for each other.

You actually believe this don't you, god bless

To be fair, Trump was FAR less predictable, so this may have had some effect simply because people never know how he'll react.