Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Johnson]

Although his term was about to expire this fall, Jens Stoltenberg has been asked for remain NATO General Secretary for another year at the NATO Summit today.

https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1506980885140316163

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I haven’t been talking much about the frontlines recently because…well they’ve kinda been still for a while now. The Mariupol pocket shrinks a bit each day, Russian backed forces made a few minor advances in Donetsk and Luhansk, the Ukrainians counter attacked a bit in Kyiv area and Mykolaiv/Kherson oblast, but otherwise not much. This really is entering a war of attrition, and that’s terrible for both sides, although worse for Ukraine.

It's much worse for Ukraine's population but if it turns into a war of attrition then it basically ensures that Russia will accomplish nothing from this invasion other than the destruction of its own economy and the disgrace of its political leadership and military capabilities. Russia's crimes against Ukraine have also ensured that under absolutely no circumstances will any significant portion of the Ukrainian population accept Putin's or Russia's interference in their country or culture for generations.

All that matters is that Russia gets a Domination Victory for even a day. Ignore what happens in the weeks, months or years after that. It literally doesn't matter if Russia's economy collapses, Ukrainian resistance remains strong, the victory is purely pyrrhic and/or Russia ends up losing control of Ukraine.

Haven't you played Civilization?

(For the record, I'm being sarcastic)

[Storr]

One thing I've noticed following Russian soldier obituaries and death articles is that a high proportion of deaths seem to be minorities. Ethnic Russians are 80% of the Russian Federation's population. I've been seeing Kazakhs, Buryats, Tatars, Tuvans, Chuvashs, Bashkirs, and of course North Caucasians. It definitely feels like more than 20% of the Russian soldier death posts I've been seeing are ethnic minorities. Maybe it's just which deaths the Ukrainian twitter user I've been following shares from VK (knockoff Russian facebook). I'd guess one factor is the increased poverty and lack of opportunities for ethnic minorities in Russia leading young men joining the military as a way out, similar to minorities in the United States. Of the 12 poorest federal subjects of Russia by GDP per capita, 10 are ethnic minority Republics.

For example, here's a Tatar who died in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506911714255724552?s=20&t=KHaZcORplZq...

And an Ossetian from Beslan. He would have been 9 in 2004, so he may have survived the terrorist school siege and bungled police response.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506872283096354817?s=20&t=KHaZcORplZq...

Finally a Kazakh from Volgograd Oblast, which makes sense. Most Kazakhs in Russia live close to the border with Kazakhstan, mainly in southern Russia and the Urals.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1507040036293943297?s=20&t=QJu4RNXNrRj...

[DaleCooper]

I haven’t been talking much about the frontlines recently because…well they’ve kinda been still for a while now. The Mariupol pocket shrinks a bit each day, Russian backed forces made a few minor advances in Donetsk and Luhansk, the Ukrainians counter attacked a bit in Kyiv area and Mykolaiv/Kherson oblast, but otherwise not much. This really is entering a war of attrition, and that’s terrible for both sides, although worse for Ukraine.

It's much worse for Ukraine's population but if it turns into a war of attrition then it basically ensures that Russia will accomplish nothing from this invasion other than the destruction of its own economy and the disgrace of its political leadership and military capabilities. Russia's crimes against Ukraine have also ensured that under absolutely no circumstances will any significant portion of the Ukrainian population accept Putin's or Russia's interference in their country or culture for generations.

All that matters is that Russia gets a Domination Victory for even a day. Ignore what happens in the weeks, months or years after that. It literally doesn't matter if Russia's economy collapses, Ukrainian resistance remains strong, the victory is purely pyrrhic and/or Russia ends up losing control of Ukraine.

Haven't you played Civilization?

(For the record, I'm being sarcastic)

Lol, so true. A lot of people do seem to think that way, though.

[Logical]

One thing I've noticed following Russian soldier obituaries and death articles is that a high proportion of deaths seem to be minorities. Ethnic Russians are 80% of the Russian Federation's population. I've been seeing Kazakhs, Buryats, Tatars, Tuvans, Chuvashs, Bashkirs, and of course North Caucasians. It definitely feels like more than 20% of the Russian soldier death posts I've been seeing are ethnic minorities. Maybe it's just which deaths the Ukrainian twitter user I've been following shares from VK (russian knockoff facebook). I'd guess one factor is likely the increased poverty and lack of opportunities for ethnic minorities in Russia leading young men joining the military as a way out, similar to minorities in the United States. Of the 12 poorest federal subjects of Russia by GDP per capita, 10 are ethnic minority Republics.

For example, here's a Tatar who died in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506911714255724552?s=20&t=KHaZcORplZqTENGwcgCcaA

And an Ossetian (based on his surname and hometown which is 81.8% Ossetian) from Beslan. He would have been 9 in 2004, so he may have survived the terrorist school siege and bungled police response.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506872283096354817?s=20&t=KHaZcORplZqTENGwcgCcaA

Not surprising at all. The army is seen as a pathway for social mobility in the poorer rural areas. The pay isn't great, but it's a steady job with plenty of opportunities to skim some money on top off it. There is also the demographic factor as the only places with above replacement fertility rates since the fall of the Soviet Union are the peripheral non Slavic areas. Finally there is the socioeconomic factor where despite being the pride of the nation, serving in the Armed Forces is seen as something for poor people. The middle and upper class Muscovites has and will employ every mean they have to evade being conscripted!

For example, I know someone from Moscow, solidly middle class, who bought a white ticket (medical exemption pass) from the recruiting office in 2014.

[AndyHogan14]

I am seeing chatter online that is claiming that the entirety of the Mykolaiv Oblast has been cleared of Russian forces. If that turns out to be true, then Ukraine could make a push towards Kherson.

In the south, retaking Kherson needs to be the highest priority being that the "land bridge" between Crimea and the Donbas would then be blocked.

[Torie]

Not sure what this really means if Putin goes to WMD's, and maybe the idea is to keep it vague, but here it is:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/24/world/russia-ukraine-war#nato-has-activated-a-task-force-to-respond-if-russia-uses-weapons-of-mass-destruction-heres-what-that-means

[It’s so Joever]

I am seeing chatter online that is claiming that the entirety of the Mykolaiv Oblast has been cleared of Russian forces. If that turns out to be true, then Ukraine could make a push towards Kherson.

In the south, retaking Kherson needs to be the highest priority being that the "land bridge" between Crimea and the Donbas would then be blocked.

Kherson isn’t in between the two, unless you are referring to Kherson Oblast which…would be really difficult.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1507109806653550607?s=20&t=cBzng8fLU...

[It’s so Joever]

This could be a disaster, I sincerely hope Ukrainians know what they are doing. God may this work please, please don’t be all for nothing and result in more losses.

[rc18]

I am seeing chatter online that is claiming that the entirety of the Mykolaiv Oblast has been cleared of Russian forces. If that turns out to be true, then Ukraine could make a push towards Kherson.

In the south, retaking Kherson needs to be the highest priority being that the "land bridge" between Crimea and the Donbas would then be blocked.

Yes, as I understand it Mykolaiv is currently clear.

And it appears the assault on Kherson has already begun. From what I gather I'm not sure it was planned, sounds like they might be taking advantage of more problems on the Russian side.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Canada's embassy to the UN sure is based!

https://twitter.com/CanadaUN/status/1504464863510335488

[Frodo]

I am seeing chatter online that is claiming that the entirety of the Mykolaiv Oblast has been cleared of Russian forces. If that turns out to be true, then Ukraine could make a push towards Kherson.

In the south, retaking Kherson needs to be the highest priority being that the "land bridge" between Crimea and the Donbas would then be blocked.

I think you are geographically confused.  Check Google Maps.  I am assuming you mean that the highest priority for Ukraine is to push the Russians back across the Dneiper from Kherson city, and prevent them from re-establishing a foothold on the western bank from which they can then attack Odessa overland.  

[rc18]

I am seeing chatter online that is claiming that the entirety of the Mykolaiv Oblast has been cleared of Russian forces. If that turns out to be true, then Ukraine could make a push towards Kherson.

In the south, retaking Kherson needs to be the highest priority being that the "land bridge" between Crimea and the Donbas would then be blocked.

I think you are geographically confused.  Check Google Maps.  I am assuming you mean that the highest priority for Ukraine is to push the Russians back across the Dneiper from Kherson, and prevent them from re-establishing a foothold on the western bank from which they can then attack Odessa overland.  

I suspect he's referring to the whole of Kherson Oblast, not just the city. Both routes to Crimea go through Kherson Obl.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This could be a disaster, I sincerely hope Ukrainians know what they are doing. God may this work please, please don’t be all for nothing and result in more losses.

The ISW reports no significant Ukrainian advances today and predicts they are gearing up for an offensive around Kyiv. This is more likely to be BS than a serious attempt to take Kherson, let alone one that is making any ground.

Alternatively, the offensive in Kyiv is a feint, or they could overstretch their limited offensive capabilities.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Biden calls for exclusion of Russia from G20:

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1507077036304744451

Biden now saying he knows what will shut down Putin. Here we go. Biden starting to walk onto the stage and get his plums out.

This is really the defining moment of Biden's Presidency.



I am hoping that pressure from the USA will force Putin to relax, Russia withdraws and we go back to normal.

Biden really walking a high wire act now.

[It’s so Joever]

If the goal is to actively cut the supply line, I still think a Zaporizhzhia->Vasylivka->Melitpol offensive would be better. Even then taking Melitopol would be extremely difficult and could result in a humiliating withdrawal.

(Or just do a #bigbrain move and do a landing from Nikopol to Enerhodar across the Dnieper, totally)

[Frodo]

I am seeing chatter online that is claiming that the entirety of the Mykolaiv Oblast has been cleared of Russian forces. If that turns out to be true, then Ukraine could make a push towards Kherson.

In the south, retaking Kherson needs to be the highest priority being that the "land bridge" between Crimea and the Donbas would then be blocked.

I think you are geographically confused.  Check Google Maps.  I am assuming you mean that the highest priority for Ukraine is to push the Russians back across the Dneiper from Kherson, and prevent them from re-establishing a foothold on the western bank from which they can then attack Odessa overland.  

I suspect he's referring to the whole of Kherson Oblast, not just the city. Both routes to Crimea go through Kherson Obl.

If that truly is the case, then it seems the Ukrainians really are biting off more than they can chew.  With their more limited resources, establishing a fortified border along the western bank of the Dneiper (once the Russians are pushed back across from Kherson city) seems the more prudent move, and then devote more resources to hurling the Russians back from the approaches to Kiev while keeping an eye on Belarus.  

[rc18]

I am seeing chatter online that is claiming that the entirety of the Mykolaiv Oblast has been cleared of Russian forces. If that turns out to be true, then Ukraine could make a push towards Kherson.

In the south, retaking Kherson needs to be the highest priority being that the "land bridge" between Crimea and the Donbas would then be blocked.

I think you are geographically confused.  Check Google Maps.  I am assuming you mean that the highest priority for Ukraine is to push the Russians back across the Dneiper from Kherson, and prevent them from re-establishing a foothold on the western bank from which they can then attack Odessa overland.  

I suspect he's referring to the whole of Kherson Oblast, not just the city. Both routes to Crimea go through Kherson Obl.

If that truly is the case, then it seems the Ukrainians really are biting off more than they can chew.  With their more limited resources, establishing a fortified border along the western bank of the Dneiper (once the Russians are pushed back across from Kherson city) seems the more prudent move, and then devote more resources to hurling the Russians back from the approaches to Kiev while keeping an eye on Belarus.  

To be clear I doubt that is their plan, I was just pointing out Andy was likely referring to the Oblast.

[Storr]

Field dressing has a shelf life of 24-36 months. With bonus underrated comment.

https://twitter.com/CentreGround6/status/1507057765566627845?s=20&t=Wer0zLqL...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

With respect to anti-ship missiles - I mentioned earlier that we might first see the supply of older systems that Ukraine already or previously used. Prior to the announcement about the US looking into procuring anti-ship missiles, a US DoD official claimed this was already being done by other countries, although they kept schtum about quantities and suppliers. It's possible that was BS, but I wouldn't be surprised if Poland and/or Romania were supplying small amounts of their ex-Soviet stocks.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

(Or just do a #bigbrain move and do a landing from Nikopol to Enerhodar across the Dnieper, totally)

It's quite possible that all that remains of Ukraine's fleet can't access that part of the Dnieper, assuming the remnants are either based in Odessa or trapped in Mariupol.

[It’s so Joever]

(Or just do a #bigbrain move and do a landing from Nikopol to Enerhodar across the Dnieper, totally)

It's quite possible that all that remains of Ukraine's fleet can't access the Dnieper, assuming the remnants are either based in Odessa or trapped in Mariupol.

Just build a bridge, use the Biden infrastructure spending money!

[NOVA Green]

Looks like there is a possibility that the US might go the route of "secondary sanctions", which would effectively significantly raise the stakes on countries and companies not currently covered under the sanction regime.

The Biden administration already has the legal authority to impose sanctions on international firms for working with sanctioned Russian entities, but has not yet done so. The measure would be aimed at expanding the bite of America’s sanctions by cutting off parts of Russia not only from the American and European economies, but also the rest of its international trading partners, such as China, India and Persian Gulf states.

This strategy — known as “secondary sanctions” — would represent a major intensification of economic hostilities over the invasion of Ukraine, and has only been deployed by the United States on a handful of occasions. If enacted, secondary sanctions would require countries in Asia and elsewhere that have refrained from imposing their own sanctions on Russia to have to pick between continuing to interact with sanctioned parts of Russia and the economies of Western allies.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/03/24/russia-economy-sanctions/

[NOVA Green]

Russian officers refusing to serve in Ukraine...

Twelve Russian special police officers within the country’s national guard, or Rosgvardia, refused an order from their superiors to go fight in Ukraine and were dismissed from service, according to human rights lawyers now representing them in court.

In early February, officers in the force’s Krasnodar region were sent to Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, to take part in what their commanders told them was a military exercise. Later, they received orders to go to Ukraine, which they deemed illegal.

“None of them had a foreign passport with them, nor any intention to leave Russia as their direct official duties are limited to Russian territory,” Pavel Chikov, chair of Agora International Human Rights Group, said in a statement published on his Telegram channel Thursday.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/24/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-LY4OONDTP5AFDC265KASLGO55Q