Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 878720 times)
Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #75 on: February 25, 2022, 04:18:51 AM »
Quote from: ugabug on February 25, 2022, 04:13:15 AM
I'm kinda surprised that Russia would try to attack Kiev directly and risk urban warfare instead of trying to surround it and get it under a siege.
I'm not. Russia wants to finish this a quickly as possible. The longer this "special operation" takes, the worse for Moscow. Hopefully Ukraine can hold the Russians at bay from Kyiv.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #76 on: February 25, 2022, 04:54:59 AM »
It's looking like today will be a critical day for Kyiv:
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #77 on: February 25, 2022, 05:42:12 AM »
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,240
Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #78 on: February 25, 2022, 05:27:57 PM »
Quote from: Cody on February 25, 2022, 04:31:22 PM

Bulgaria closes its airspace to Russian planes. RIA is a Russian news agency, so this is credible. Russian news is not going to make something like this up.
Now the whole of the EU should follow suit. But I have a suspicion the German speaking member countries won't bother because muh profits.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #79 on: February 25, 2022, 05:32:15 PM »
Imagine any of America's billionaires doing this. Poroshekno is wealthy enough he could have left on a private jet and be in the Caymans already.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #80 on: February 25, 2022, 05:38:34 PM »
If the civilian population is doing this, I don't see the Ukrainian public even wanting to start talks:
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #81 on: February 25, 2022, 05:45:06 PM »
Incredibly, incredibly based:

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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #82 on: February 25, 2022, 05:53:41 PM »
Quote from: Alcibiades on February 25, 2022, 05:48:09 PM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on February 25, 2022, 05:08:33 PM


This is an insanely risky move by Russia — it’s not like they’ve got Kyiv fully encircled yet. Putin is clearly in a hurry. If the Russians fail, which we can only hope they do, it would be a major blow to their entire plan. The Ukrainians will have had time to take up good positions throughout the day, so they should be able to put up a good fight (after all, they have already demonstrated their indomitable spirit many times over), but this could get extremely nasty for both soldiers and civilians.
Remember the 3:1 rule of combat: in order that for the attacker to win the battle, his forces should be at least three times the force of the defender. From what I've been seeing, Russia doesn't have three times the manpower in the Kyiv area.
Saw this from a twitter account that's been covering the war well:
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #83 on: February 25, 2022, 06:09:19 PM »
This could easily be propaganda, but I so badly hope it is true:
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #84 on: February 25, 2022, 06:28:44 PM »
Maybe sending in Chechens used to fighting isolated insurgents was not the best idea (super graphic):
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #85 on: February 25, 2022, 06:46:50 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2022, 06:53:55 PM by Storr »
Quote from: STAND WITH UKRAINE on February 25, 2022, 06:31:53 PM
Quote from: Storr on February 25, 2022, 06:28:44 PM
Maybe sending in Chechens used to fighting isolated insurgents was not the best idea (super graphic):

<tweet snip>
Chechmate, Putin.
Ramzan Kadyrov (the ruler of Chechnya) is even more loathsome than Putin. Kadyrov likes to use the National Guard (Rosgvardia) units in Chechnya as his own mini army to do whatever he wants inside the Republic, but they're essentially armored police. Chechen units had never been deployed in conflict outside of Chechnya until now. It does not surprise me that they were routed when facing an actual army.

Article about the deployment of Chechen units to the border area: https://jamestown.org/program/chechen-rosgvardia-troops-head-for-ukraine/

"The problem, however, is that the regiment—and the National Guard in general—is essentially a police force (albeit exceptionally well armed) that has limited experience in conventional warfare."
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #86 on: February 25, 2022, 06:59:46 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2022, 07:04:09 PM by Storr »
A Russian airborne assault south of Kyiv attempting to cutoff the city may currently be taking place (this would fit in with the earlier reports of a Russian Il-76 being brought/shot down in the same area):
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #87 on: February 25, 2022, 07:56:38 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on February 25, 2022, 07:30:19 PM
Shockingly according to a new Poll Voters think Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump was President


I dislike Trump as much as any other Democrat, but I agree with the 62%. Putin generally avoided provoking the US during the Trump administration. Trump espoused things Putin wanted (leaving NATO, reducing US troop numbers in Europe, etc.) and openly mentioned his admiration of Putin. If Putin invaded Ukraine, he'd lose any hope of weakening NATO (not to mention actively give NATO countries reason to support the organization) and give up the best relationship with a US President he's ever had. Invasion under a Trump administration makes no sense for Putin.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #88 on: February 25, 2022, 08:03:13 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2022, 08:57:51 PM by Storr »
Quote from: Splash on February 25, 2022, 07:57:02 PM


This makes sense, Kazakhstan has many similarities to Ukraine: long land border with Russia, regions bordering Russia with significant ethnic Russian populations, long history of Russian/Soviet rule over its people, a Russian/native language divide, etc. The Kazakh government may have brutally crushed peaceful protests at home with the help of Russian special forces, but it certainly doesn't want to legitimize Russia invading neighboring countries under the guise of self defense.

Edit: Plus Kazakhstan was a signatory of the Budapest Memorandum like Ukraine. Seeing Russia flagrantly violate the use of force and territorial integrity guarantees for one of the signatories likely doesn't make the Kazakh government all too happy.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #89 on: February 25, 2022, 08:17:21 PM »
Quote from: Oakvale on February 25, 2022, 08:14:05 PM
Quote from: Buffalo Mayor Young Kim on February 25, 2022, 08:01:45 PM
Quote from: Storr on February 25, 2022, 07:56:38 PM
Quote from: 2016 on February 25, 2022, 07:30:19 PM
Shockingly according to a new Poll Voters think Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump was President


I dislike Trump as much as any other Democrat, I agree with the 62%. Putin generally avoided provoking the US during the Trump administration. Trump espoused things Putin wanted (leaving NATO, reducing US troop numbers in Europe, etc.) and openly mentioned his admiration of Putin. If Putin invaded Ukraine, he'd lose any hope of weakening NATO (not to mention actively give NATO countries reason to support the organization) and give up the best relationship with a US President he's ever had. Invasion under a Trump administration makes no sense for Putin.

Yes, if only we had a Putin lickspittle in the White House, Putin would never have invaded Ukraine. I don’t know why you think it would damage his relationship with Trump when Trump is saying how smart and strong Putin is for invading Ukraine or why you think an even further damaged NATO wouldn’t embolden him.

I’m not sure how this is much better than Sergei’s ‘if only the Ukrainians had personally blow Putin this would all go away’ hot take.


Presumably the logic is Trump would have used US power to just hand Ukraine to Russia without the need for a war in about February 2021.
I'm not saying it would have been a good thing for Trump to have won reelection in 2020. I just don't feel it would have been in Putin's interest to invade (he probably still would have massed troops on the border at some point to pressure the Ukrainian government) had Trump been reelected.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #90 on: February 25, 2022, 08:27:13 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2022, 08:58:51 PM by Storr »
Institute for the Study of War Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment Update February 25th:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2022

PDF: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20February%2025%202022.pdf

"Immediate items to watch:

Social media users observed a Russian armored column assembling in Stolin, Belarus, on February 25.[29] These forces could potentially conduct a new line of advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.

Russian Naval Infantry have not yet conducted amphibious landings but retain the capability to do so against the Odesa or the Azov Sea coasts or both.

Russian forces continue to refrain from using their likely full spectrum of air and missile capabilities. The Ukrainian air force also remains active. Russian operations will likely steadily wear down Ukrainian air capabilities and eventually take the Ukrainian air force out of the fight.

Russian forces have not yet attempted the decapitation strike several analysts and outlets have forecasted and may attempt to do so in the near future.

Russia has sufficient conventional military power to reinforce each of its current axes of advance and overpower the conventional Ukrainian forces defending them."
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,240
Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #91 on: February 25, 2022, 09:12:30 PM »
The BND is the German foreign intelligence agency.

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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,240
Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #92 on: February 25, 2022, 09:46:13 PM »
Quote from: Middle-aged Europe on February 25, 2022, 09:25:37 PM
For whom it may interest, German magazine Der Spiegel has a rather lengthy English-language article on the prospective impact of Ukraine on German politics, titled "The Calamitous Errors of Germany's Russia Policy":

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-military-and-political-disaster-the-calamitous-errors-of-germany-s-russia-policy-a-c8b9818e-4bc2-4eb2-ac55-39e5790b29b2

One SPD politician has essentially described current events as Europe's 9/11. The German government is planning to talk next week about an increase of its defense budget. And it seems certain that we'll be getting a whole lot of LNG terminals in the years to come.
A statistic that shocked me was that the Bundeswehr had more than 4,700 tanks in 1989 and today there are less than 300 in inventory!
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #93 on: February 25, 2022, 10:56:11 PM »
It's getting close.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,240
Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #94 on: February 25, 2022, 11:06:05 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2022, 11:09:31 PM by Storr »
Quote from: STAND WITH UKRAINE on February 25, 2022, 10:57:59 PM
Cmon, hold brave men, just for an hour, sunrise is coming…

Hopefully this fact allows the Ukrainians to cutoff or at least disrupt Russian supply lines. I don't want to say it's been a mad rush to reach Kyiv, but it's obviously been the top objective instead of securing surrounding territory around where the Russians have advanced.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #95 on: February 25, 2022, 11:46:29 PM »
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,240
Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #96 on: February 26, 2022, 01:07:24 AM »
Quote from: Unconditional Surrender Truman on February 26, 2022, 01:03:49 AM
Zelensky alive and in Kyiv:


Based
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,240
Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #97 on: February 26, 2022, 01:19:28 AM »
Quote from: Meclazine on February 26, 2022, 01:14:58 AM
Are there any military experts on this forum?

Someone who can show us a website with the actual map of what is going on from a strategic point of view.



That is as good as Australian media gets; not very informative to be honest. The media is just custard at delivering the facts.


There's this from a nonprofit called the Institute for the Study of War that's put out a "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment" the past two days. There analysis has been pretty good in my amateur opinion: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2022
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,240
Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #98 on: February 26, 2022, 01:28:11 AM »
If there's one not terrible thing to come from war, it's iconic photography. This might be one of those:
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #99 on: February 26, 2022, 01:56:21 AM »
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