Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

So, what do people think might be the endgame here? Ultimately it feels like, if the combatants remain only Russia (plus Belarus) and Ukraine, Russia is likely to win the conventional war eventually, even if it takes them months to occupy the whole country. On the other hand, in the last few days, the European powers (and the US, operating behind the scenes) seem to have committed themselves quite far towards a position where Russia cannot be allowed to win the conventional war. Right now, that doesn't mean direct intervention because the Russians aren't about to win, and clearly there are high hopes on the European side that the Ukrainians can ultimately repel the Russian forces without direct military intervention by the rest of Europe. But what happens if, as is more likely, the Ukrainians eventually start to crumble under the pressure? Given the implicit commitments by the UK, France, etc. to preventing Russia from winning, not to mention the strong pressure from Poland, Romania, the Baltics, etc. and popular sentiment in all of the above countries, it feels like a European intervention would have to happen at some point. I think we all hope it doesn't come to that, but isn't that starting to feel inevitable? Not now, and maybe not until May or so, but at some point?

Afghanistan

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1498912341060165635

[pppolitics]

Putin's biggest cheerleaders on social media are all Indians (and I don't mean Native Americans)

[pppolitics]

IT JUST KEEPS HAPPENING

https://mobile.twitter.com/UkraineRussiaW3/status/1499080105250869250

No need to pay taxes on it either

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-tax-office-captured-russian-tanks-not-personal-taxable-income-2022-3

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1499012343581364224

[pppolitics]

Ukrainian troops applying racist policies against the refugees currently fleeing the country.

Refugees are reportedly being separated at the border between:

1.  white people; and
2.  black and brown people.

https://time.com/6153276/ukraine-refugees-racism/

“We entered the train last,” Kass says, describing how she and other African women were forced to wait outside as snow was falling, while white women and children were allowed to board before them. She believes her gender is the only reason she was spared being beaten. Groups of Nepalese, Indian and Somalian men described to TIME how they were kicked and beaten with batons by Ukrainian guards who later begrudgingly allowed them to cross over, on foot."

https://www.euronews.com/travel/2022/03/02/ukrainians-go-first-how-black-and-brown-people-are-struggling-to-escape-the-russian-invasi

"The soldiers there, they tell you: ‘you are going to stay here, you are fleeing the war, stay here, you are going to fight with us, you are not going to leave, especially you black people’.”

The last beating of black people in the Ukraine would have been by the Nazi SS Einsatzgruppen in 1941.

Ukraine is probably trying to figure out which ones are Indians.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1499252246139318272

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1499543775240196099

The Russians are really that stupid.

If the plant explodes and sent radioactive plumes all over Europe, it would drag the rest of Europe into Ukraine.

[pppolitics]

Belarusian Forces Will Not Take Part in Ukraine War, Lukashenko Says

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said on Friday that the Belarusian armed forces were not taking part and would not take part in Russia's military operation in Ukraine.

A close Russian ally, Lukashenko said he spoke to President Vladimir Putin at length by telephone on Friday. Russia has used Belarusian territory to carry out a multi-pronged invasion of Ukraine.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Marmusha/status/1500468764772638724

[pppolitics]

Russia and Ukraine together produce 1/3 of the world's wheat.    Wheat prices have surged to twice of early 2021 levels with Ukraine export sources being cut off due to the conflict and the threat of Russia potentially holding back wheat exports.

Eat more rice

[pppolitics]

This isn't something you would be doing if you were certain of imminent victory.

https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1500602398045315075

Things keep getting more cartoonish every day.

What's next?

the US recruit the Taliban to fight in Ukraine?

[pppolitics]

Where is Charlie Wilson?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1500864244614668298

[pppolitics]

Almost every Ukranian now hates Putin/Russia, including the Russian-speaking population

[...]

Mr. Putin has claimed that swaths of the country, including the south, are historically Russian lands and has attempted to justify his invasion as necessary to protect local Russian speakers. But, after seizing places like Melitopol, his forces there are largely being treated as foreign occupiers rather than liberators.

“He thought in these towns we’d be happy and meet them with Russian flags, but no one here was waiting for Russia,” said Andriy Radchenko, a 41-year-old surgeon in Melitopol. “We want to demoralize them, to erode their spirit.”

Thousands protested on Saturday in other occupied cities and towns. The largest protests were in the neighboring regional capital of Kherson, where one man jumped atop a passing Russian armored vehicle and waved a large Ukrainian flag to cheers from the crowd.

The resistance of the local population in predominantly Russian-speaking cities is a challenge to Mr. Putin. Russia’s soldiers, who were told they were on a mission to liberate a brotherly nation from neo-Nazi rulers, will now have to suppress the very people they are purporting to protect.

[...]

People in Melitopol mostly speak Russian, in part because the Soviets suppressed Ukrainian culture and mandated use of Russian. Most switch freely between the two, which are linguistically similar, and many are speaking Ukrainian as a form of passive resistance.

On March 1, three days after Russian troops took control, a few hundred people gathered in a central square for a prayer meeting. They sang the national anthem, waved Ukrainian flags and held signs including one reading: “Melitopol is our land.”

[...]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/occupied-ukrainian-towns-want-russian-troops-to-go-home-11646662450?mod=e2tw

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1500909383491936261

[pppolitics]

Does anyone remember her?

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1499289678868058112

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1500909383491936261

Really doesn’t look like it’ll go anywhere soon. Various Polish officials hum and haw but their Prime Minister (not the President) keeps saying no. Psaki talks up the Biden administration’s work on the matter while suggesting it’s incredibly complicated: https://www.twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1500929211254640648
NATO seems kind of dysfunctional. You have to wonder if an invocation of Article 5 would be first met by days of legalistic deliberation over what it really meant in context.

Can't we just do a straight-up trade?

It would then be us, not Poland, who is sending the jets.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1500953180313640961

[pppolitics]

I still like this video no matter how many times that I've watched it

https://twitter.com/TheClearCider/status/1501006845296746496

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1501158329720188930

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1500932132914581522
https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1500932401215819779

[pppolitics]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/europe/ukraine-hotline-russian-soldiers-intl-cmd/index.html

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1501170083976126464

Is that for real?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1500417894491983876